When it happened I agreed with Bill Belichick's call to go for it

[edjr 6,580]

and I still agree with it, 100%

 

Going for it was the right call, just because they didn't make it, doesn't change that fact it was the right move. No one knows what would have happened if they punted, they very well still could have lost.

 

I do not agree with the play call, or the execution. If you're going to go for it, why not run it twice or try something else. If you watch the play, Welker was open for 5 yards over the middle too.

[patweisers44 845]

I'm sure you are fishing here edjr, but you are wrong. You punt the ball and make them go down a longer field to beat you.

 

When commentators/analysts dont sugar-coat it and they flat out say its a bad call, you know it is.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Your agreement is further proof that it was the wrong decision.

[edjr 6,580]

I'm sure you are fishing here edjr, but you are wrong. You punt the ball and make them go down a longer field to beat you.

 

When commentators/analysts dont sugar-coat it and they flat out say its a bad call, you know it is.

 

X

 

Just because every other puzzy coach in the history of the NFL says to punt, that doesn't mean it's the right thing to do. BB has balls, he's not worried about his job like most coaches, it was the right call.

 

I blame Maroney a lot more than I blame BB for the loss.

 

All I am saying is that when it happend, I wanted them to go for it, I'm not going to use hindsight and change what I said at the time.

 

Also, I wanted Grady Little to leave Pedro in back in 2003.

[edjr 6,580]

Your agreement is further proof that it was the wrong decision.

 

Fair point, but no.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

I disagree because if you don't make it, it is a HUGE momentum swing against you. You can't risk it.

 

Jamarcus Russell might have been able to score a TD from the 30 AFTER that big 4th down shutdown.

[cbfalcon 825]

I'm with ya Edjr.

 

As a player and a fan, I'll usually agree with trying to win the game as oppose to trying not to lose the game. Obviously you have to calculate risk vs reward but this time it was a good call.

 

The Colts were rolling. You have a better chance of gaining 2 yards than you do of stopping Manning in that situation.

[hoytdwow 202]

It was an terrible call, and egregiously so. I'm no statistician, but I assume punting in that situation decreases your opponent's odds of scoring very significantly.

 

Belichick has always had moments of needless aggression in his play calling. He suffers from a certain type of hubris and last night was the epitome of it.

 

I'm glad I fell asleep and missed it in real time.

 

[donhaas 18]

X

 

All I am saying is that when it happend, I wanted them to go for it, I'm not going to use hindsight and change what I said at the time.

 

I want my quarterback to go for it on every single 4th down..... including 4th and 27. Every time.

That doesn't make it the smart football call....

 

 

 

Belichick dissed his defense with that move. He dissed them hard.

 

I respect his ballz; not so much his smarts....

[edjr 6,580]

I'm with ya Edjr.

 

As a player and a fan, I'll usually agree with trying to win the game as oppose to trying not to lose the game. Obviously you have to calculate risk vs reward but this time it was a good call.

 

The Colts were rolling. You have a better chance of gaining 2 yards than you do of stopping Manning in that situation.

 

They should have thrown the ball to Welker and if they didn't get it, they should have tried let the Colts score faster and left themselves with enough time to kick a field goal, not tackle them at the one.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

Okay, for the people who say this was BB's worst decision; it wasn't. It cost them home field advantage in the playoffs which is bad.

 

Think back to the Giants/Pats Superbowl. When the Giants went down the field miraculously, BB called for a blitz leaving Hobbs (5' 10") to single cover Plax (6' 5"). That one cost them the Lombardi trophy which is worse.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Going for it on your own 28 in that situation with Peyton Manning standing on the other sideline is an idiotic knee-jerk decision I wouldn't have even made playing Madden. It's stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, DUMB football. I don't care how many rings he has, the coach is 100% to blame for this loss. That is an atrocious position to put your team in.

 

Bellichick can put whatever moody, jackass, d-bag spin he wants on it. For a couple minutes last night he was the worst coach in football.

[edjr 6,580]

Going for it on your own 28 in that situation with Peyton Manning standing on the other sideline is an idiotic knee-jerk decision I wouldn't have even made playing Madden. It's stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, DUMB football. I don't care how many rings he has, the coach is 100% to blame for this loss. That is an atrocious position to put your team in.

 

Bellichick can put whatever moody, jackass, d-bag spin he wants on it. For a couple minutes last night he was the worst coach in football.

 

if they get it, he's suddenly a genius?

[OakHeadFootball 1]

Going for it on your own 28 in that situation with Peyton Manning standing on the other sideline is an idiotic knee-jerk decision I wouldn't have even made playing Madden. It's stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, DUMB football. I don't care how many rings he has, the coach is 100% to blame for this loss. That is an atrocious position to put your team in.

 

Bellichick can put whatever moody, jackass, d-bag spin he wants on it. For a couple minutes last night he was the worst coach in football.

 

 

Right ...

 

No blame goes to the multiple redzone turnovers, blown timeouts called by the players or the defense for giving up multiple scores in the 4rth quarter. Its ALL Bill's fault.

 

I am sorry but the asshats are out in full force today.

[Big Fella 0]

Going for it was a terrible decision. IF they made it would then be considered a crazy decision, but still very questionable.

 

The reason you don't see that at the Pro level is because coaches get fired for not winning games, and they get fired fast for losing games. Belichick gave it away.

[plasma george 62]

They should have thrown the ball to Welker and if they didn't get it, they should have tried let the Colts score faster and left themselves with enough time to kick a field goal, not tackle them at the one.

I was yelling that exactly...let him go in.

Then Brady had 1 minute to get into field goal range. neither D could stop the other O. Whoever had the ball last was going to win.

 

I still say Faulk had the yards, the refs are old, slow, and they rely on Instant reply to correct their mistakes. Unfortunately it couldn't be reviewed because of a dumb rule

[Stewburtx8 67]

Actually I think a argument could be made that this was the correct call. When i watched the play, I thought it was a dumb decision. But the more I think about it, the more I think that it was actually the right decision. Yes the "general" numbers will say punting the ball is the correct decision. But those numbers don't account for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. The odds of Tom Brady converting 4th and 2 with the skill players he has around him is going to be much higher than the league average. The odds of Peyton Manning driving his team 60-70 yards in under 2 minutes with all his timeouts left is going to be much higher than the league average. In my opinion, those numbers go out the window when these two teams and quarterbacks play. I'd say the Pats had a better chance of converting 4th and 2 than they did of stopping Peyton Manning from driving 60-70 yards. Thats my opinion. There isn't anyway to know what the true odds of this are. But this isn't even accounting for the fact that it wasn't a complete given that the Colts score from the Pats 28 yard line anyways.

 

No other coach in the league makes that call because no other coach in the league is so secure in his position that he could withstand the backlash he would receive from making a call like that if it doesnt work. Football purists will say he is an idiot. Former coaches will say he is an idiot. But thats because none of those coaches would have the balls to make a call like that, because it would likely cost them their jobs. I'm an Eagles fan and I HATE Bill Belichick. But you know what...I think this call was the correct call, it just didn't work out THIS time (although i thought it was a bad spot and Faulk got the first down anyways).

[TD Ryan2 316]

I'd say the Pats had a better chance of converting 4th and 2 than they did of stopping Peyton Manning from driving 60-70 yards.

 

No other coach in the league makes that call because no other coach in the league is so secure in his position that he could withstand the backlash he would receive

 

 

I agree with this.

 

odds of making that 4th and 2? about 50%

 

odds of Manning marching down the field and scoring? about 75%

 

 

if you go for it you have a 50% chance to win the game.

if you don't go for it you have a 25% chance to win the game.

[edjr 6,580]

I agree with this.

 

odds of making that 4th and 2? about 50%

 

odds of Manning marching down the field and scoring? about 75%

if you go for it you have a 50% chance to win the game.

if you don't go for it you have a 25% chance to win the game.

 

As usual, TD Ryan brings the goods to a thread.

[TD Ryan2 316]

As usual, TD Ryan brings the goods to a thread.

 

and then you add to it this thinking:

 

- do I want Brady/Moss/Welker/Faulk to have the game in their hands against the Colts' defense?

or

- do I want Manning/Wayne/Clark to have the game in theri hands against the Pats' defense?

 

ie. do I want my strength against their weakness or their strength against my weakness.

 

 

The Call is what will make the headlines, it's a perfectly compact and sensational story that media outlets love... but the truth is that Maroney's goal-line fumble and the soft/prevent defense is what lost this game for NE.

 

and hats off to the Colts... they won a game "Pats" style... IND was outplayed for most of the game but hung in there to steal it in the end. It really is amazing how much of a role reversal these two teams have had over the past few seasons... NE with scoring records and stats, IND with Defense and game management that keeps them in it 'til the end.

nice win for IND.

[parrot 789]

I agree with this.

 

odds of making that 4th and 2? about 50%

 

odds of Manning marching down the field and scoring? about 75%

if you go for it you have a 50% chance to win the game.

if you don't go for it you have a 25% chance to win the game.

 

 

People want to make this about Bill's hubris, or ego, or whatever, but he was playing the odds. 4th and 2 in general is more like a 60% conversion rate I think, and the Pats had moved the ball very well throughout the game, so I would give them at least another 5% of probablility, or 65%. So if you call it a stupid call, you have to believe there was a less than 35% chance that Peyton Manning - a guy who many of the people calling it a stupid call feel may be the greatest QB ever - would lead his team down the field and score. The more I think about it, it was absolutely the right decision.

 

And while it blew up on us this time, that's the nature of the beast. I like that we have the only coach in the league with the cajones to go against the conventional wisdom and stick to his guns even in high-pressure situations.

[edjr 6,580]

and then you add to it this thinking:

 

- do I want Brady/Moss/Welker/Faulk to have the game in their hands against the Colts' defense?

or

- do I want Manning/Wayne/Clark to have the game in theri hands against the Pats' defense?

 

ie. do I want my strength against their weakness or their strength against my weakness.

The Call is what will make the headlines, it's a perfectly compact and sensational story that media outlets love... but the truth is that Maroney's goal-line fumble and the soft/prevent defense is what lost this game for NE.

 

and hats off to the Colts... they won a game "Pats" style... IND was outplayed for most of the game but hung in there to steal it in the end. It really is amazing how much of a role reversal these two teams have had over the past few seasons... NE with scoring records and stats, IND with Defense and game management that keeps them in it 'til the end.

nice win for IND.

 

absolutely

[jgcrawfish 232]

If you're somewhere around the 50 to the opponents 40'ish, I say you're right. But your dead wrong on this one. Your chances of winning with Peyton needing 60-80 yrds are bad enough, but your chances of winning with Peyton needing 28 yrds are pathetic. You punt that ball and you give your defense a chance to bring it home. You don't tell the defense "Hey, you guys were good enough for 58 minutes, but I don't think you can cut it from here on out". Thank gawd that Belicheat still offers me a little proof that he's still the same loser he was when he was HC of the Browns. Once a d-bag, always a d-bag.

[parrot 789]

Your chances of winning with Peyton needing 60-80 yrds are bad enough,

 

What would you put those odds at?

[TD Ryan2 316]

If you're somewhere around the 50 to the opponents 40'ish, I say you're right. But your dead wrong on this one. Your chances of winning with Peyton needing 60-80 yrds are bad enough, but your chances of winning with Peyton needing 28 yrds are pathetic.

 

so based on your post here, BB's choices were:

1. a decent chance to win (make it on 4th - 50% to 60% chance)

2. a "bad enough" chance to win (Manning with a longer field)

3. a "pathetic" chance to win. (Manning with a short field)

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

There is absultely no argument in favor of that call.

 

It was simply the wrong call. There is no other choice except to punt the ball away and trust your defense to keep the Colts out of the endzone.

 

Had the ball been on the 50 yard line... maybe you have an argument to go for it (I would still punt it) but when you have the ball inside your own 30 yard line, you risk giving Peyton Manning an incredibly short field and opening up the Colts entire playbook which is something alot of people don't even consider.

 

2:00 drill with 70 yards to go? pass, pass, pass, pass

 

2:00 drill with 28 yards to go? you can run any play.

[kmbryant09 1]

and I still agree with it, 100%

 

Going for it was the right call, just because they didn't make it, doesn't change that fact it was the right move. No one knows what would have happened if they punted, they very well still could have lost.

 

I do not agree with the play call, or the execution. If you're going to go for it, why not run it twice or try something else. If you watch the play, Welker was open for 5 yards over the middle too.

I agree that as a Pats fan, I could see myself "liking" the call, but either way you slice it, it wasn't the "right" call. The right call is to punt the ball to our sh!tty special teams unit, and make Manning march 80 yards in 2 minutes. If you don't get that 1st down, Manning wins that game 100 times out of 100, especially with the message BB sent to his DEF. I think the mistake was 3rd and 2. He should have taken a shot with Moss downfield. Everyone and their mother knows what Wes Welker will be doing - a 5 yard out, way too predictable.

 

But again, I really didn't MIND the call, but the correct thing to do is punt the ball

[TD Ryan2 316]

There is no other choice except to punt the ball away and trust your defense to keep the Colts out of the endzone.

 

 

what are the odds (percentage) that your defense keeps Manning/Colts from scoring?

 

this is where the entire argument rests.

 

We know that converting on 4th and 2 is about 50%.

 

Does Manning have less than a 50% chance to march down and score... 70 yards, 2 minute drill, a timeout left?

[parrot 789]

There is absultely no argument in favor of that call.

 

Arguments have been made, why don't you address them?

[redtodd 7]

what are the odds (percentage) that your defense keeps Manning/Colts from scoring?

 

this is where the entire argument rests.

 

We know that converting on 4th and 2 is about 50%.

 

Does Manning have less than a 50% chance to march down and score... 70 yards, 2 minute drill, all timeouts left?

 

I believe they had one timeout left. They were burning them prior to the two minute warning.

[TD Ryan2 316]

I believe they had one timeout left. They were burning them prior to the two minute warning.

fixed

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

what are the odds (percentage) that your defense keeps Manning/Colts from scoring?

 

this is where the entire argument rests.

 

We know that converting on 4th and 2 is about 50%.

 

Does Manning have less than a 50% chance to march down and score... 70 yards, 2 minute drill, all timeouts left?

 

The first mistake you are making is to think that the % of converting on 4th and 2 matters in this situation.

 

When the ball is on your own 28 yard line, a 50% chance of turning the ball over on downs is about 50% too high.

 

A % like that matters when you're trying to decide wether to go for it on their 40 yard line or to punt it away.

 

If you kick the ball away, maybe Manning marches 70 or 80 yards down the field and scores a TD on you. But at least you show confidence in your defense to stop him over a long field and better yet, show some confidence in your coaching.

[TD Ryan2 316]

The first mistake you are making is to think that the % of converting on 4th and 2 matters in this situation.

 

it does matter.

if you convert, you win, game over.

this is an end of game scenario, not a mid-3rd qtr. decision.

 

that percentage is all that matters.

[jgcrawfish 232]

so based on your post here, BB's choices were:

1. a decent chance to win (make it on 4th - 50% to 60% chance)

2. a "bad enough" chance to win (Manning with a longer field)

3. a "pathetic" chance to win. (Manning with a short field)

 

Ok, first off, I never said decent, that's your words, don't put them in my mouth. My point was in a decision between giving Peyton a short field to work with or a long field to work with, you take the long field. Leaguewide the 4th down conversion % is 53%. The Patriots usually have a higher % than that, but not all % are equal, and playing against Indy probably tilts that % downward a bit. I'm critical of coaches who play it too safe, who punt from their opponents 40 yrd line and net 20 yrs if they're lucky. But playing in shadow of your own goal posts changes all that. I punt and make Peyton earn it, rather than give it to him. And as said before, if Peyton has 60-70 yrds to go, and the 2 min warning has expired already, and only has 1 TD, it's a pass fest, and bad things happen more on pass plays than on run plays. Giving the Colts the ball at the 28 with 2 mins left gave them the whole playbook, and killed the Pats chances to stop anything.

[berven 0]

I was doing some work on my computer while periodically checking the NE-IND score on NFL.com's zany Game Tracker, that almost indecipherable graphic plastered with bars and arrows. I happened to look in for the final two minutes, and when I saw that Manning and the Colts had taken over at the NE28, I thought the Tracker had posted one of its periodic errors. To my astonishment, I found that Belichick had in fact gifted the Colts with the ball.

 

The calll was not gutsy but nutsy. The issue isn't about the odds of making it. The issue is that if you don't make it, you are very likely to lose a game you are now leading with two minutes to play. Belichick seems to have turned into a narcissist who has come to believe that he is in fact a Genius and a Special Person. He doesn't think the usual rules apply to him, so he can cheat superfluously, forever tarnishing his legend with his tacky illegal videos. He thinks all his ideas are good just because they are his. He thinks all his play calls are smart--because he is smart. That call was one of the worst I have ever witnessed. If you're afraid to punt and give Manning the ball at his own 30, why risk giving it to him at your own 30? The fact that he has succeeded with this before is irrelevant. I have less of a problem with Bill's indulging himself early in the game. In the 1st quarter, you can go for it on 4th and 20 at your own 1 and, while it might be dumb, it will not cost you the game. It is impossible to give away the game in the 1st quarter.

 

There are many NFL coaches whose jobs would be in jeopardy the morning after a call like that. Bill, however, believes he has immunity because of his record. That may be true, but it's not permanent. Landry, coaching legend and maestro of the Xs and Os, was eventually run out of Dallas. Bill should be careful that he doesn't becoem the victim of his own goofiness. Congrats to the Colts fans, for whom Christmas came early!

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

it does matter.

if you convert, you win, game over.

this is an end of game scenario, not a mid-3rd qtr. decision.

 

that percentage is all that matters.

 

your understanding of the game is minimal at best if you truely believe that.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I would also like to pose something for consideration

 

If the Patriots punt the ball away and Manning drives 80 yards down the field in 2 minutes, with 1 timeout and scores....

None of you would be here last night or today posting that they should have gone for it on 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line.

 

Im sure some of you will claim you would have but I am almost positive that most people are simply defending a bad call that they wouldn't have even considered otherwise.

[jgcrawfish 232]

your understanding of the game is minimal at best if you truely believe that.

 

This!

[TD Ryan2 316]

Ok, first off, I never said decent, that's your words, don't put them in my mouth.

 

not intending to. it's a known commodity. 50% chance (or better) is a decent chance.

 

 

My point was in a decision between giving Peyton a short field to work with or a long field to work with, you take the long field.

Leaguewide the 4th down conversion % is 53%... The Patriots usually have a higher % than that, but not all % are equal, and playing against Indy probably tilts that % downward a bit.

of course you'd rather Manning have a long field.

but what are the odds of Manning scoring even with a long field? I believe it's pretty high, higher than 50%. I too believe Manning is one of the greatest ever and if you give him a chance to beat you, he will.

 

- playing in shadow of your own goal posts

- make Peyton earn it

add "show faith in your defense" to this line of thinking too.

 

I don't believe you make Manning earn it - he's already earned it, you know what he'll do.

I don't believe you "show faith in your defense" - they are what they are, just feeling good about them won't change it

I don't believe the "shadows of your goalposts" matters either, it's an end-of-game scenario.

 

it's pure, calculating, odds. momentum, feelings, psychology... none of that matters. All that matters are you mathematical ODDS to win the game.

[edjr 6,580]

since 2001, from 4th and 2 or less the Patriots have a success rate 76.2% when going for it.

 

No way did they have a better than 23.8% chance of stopping Manning had they punted, not the way they were playing and the way he is playing.