Ryan Matthews a top 10 RB

[bigstretch 0]

This time of year there is always a lot to debate regarding what kind of year a rookie will have. I really like Ryan Matthews chances of have a solid rookie year, but i read that some people think he will be a top 10 fantasy RB this year.

[KSB2424 3,083]

For me to draft him in the first two rounds (which is where the top 10 RB's will more than likely fall) I will need to see him in pre-season games. His fit looks good, but I'm not sold right now. Historically rookie RB's are just average. I need more info. So the answer is maybe.

[Hitman49er 0]

I see him more as a 10-15 RB at the moment.

[Kitsnow 0]

These claims are not meaning much because he his already getting drafted in that mid 2nd round range. preaching to the fantasy community choir.

 

Say something shocking like Jacobs top 10 or Spiller.

[kmbryant09 1]

These claims are not meaning much because he his already getting drafted in that mid 2nd round range. preaching to the fantasy community choir.

 

Say something shocking like Jacobs top 10 or Spiller.

That reminds me - why is everyone SO down on Jacobs this year? I've seen mocks of Bradshaw going a full round or two before Jacobs???

 

I know Bradshaw had a solid season, and Jacobs had a down year - but he still managed 1,000 total yards and 6 TD's in essentially 14 games. If I'm not mistaken, he was plagued by injuries most of the season (what else is new?). I doubt he'll stay healthy enough for 16 games and to finish as a top10 RB, but can't he play 13+ games, and be a solid #2 RB? I've seen him available in rounds 7, 8, 9...

 

NYG still have a very productive offense, which should lead to many scoring chances for Jacobs. And the offensive line is still an elite run-blocking unit...

 

Am I missing something?

[Kitsnow 0]

Buyers remorse from last year. When players you draft in the 1st round disappoint you a lot often they will drop hard. Forte/Jacobs/barber. Meaning you can get value late if your willing to risk the chance of a repeat performance.

[Fenster 6]

Was happy to take Matthews in the 3rd round of a recent draft.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not so happy taking V. Jackson in the 4th though.

[remote controller 133]

I took him in the June Mock , http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showforum=11 , in progress right now. I grabbed him at 2.10. I was also interested in Grant, but wanted to avoid the gold and green glasses. Another consideration was I was hoping to land Jennings at 3.03 and didn't want both Packers. Here is his body of work vs. BCS competion:

 

 

2008

@ Rutgers: 26 carries, 163 yards (6.3 ypc) 3 tds

@ Wisconsin: 17 carries 54 yards (3.2 ypc)

@ UCLA: 21 carries 166 yards (7.9 ypc) 1 td

 

2009

@ Wisconsin: 19 carries, 107 yards (5.6 ypc) 1 td

@ Cincinnati: 38 carries, 145 yards (3.8 ypc) 1 td

@ Illinois: 32 carries 173 yards, (5.4 ypc) 3 tds

Boise State: 19 carries 234 yards (12.3 ypc) 3 tds

 

Here is the stats he will attempt to replace this year:

 

Rushing 223/730/12 - Receiving 20/154/0

 

I feel he can hit 1100 yards combined with 10 Td's?????

 

 

 

 

You will note I also passed on Chris Johnso at 1.03, opting for Ray Rice. FIRE AWAY!

[FantasyKing 4]

Watching NFL Network yesterday and their overall rankings scroll across the screen - they him already ranked #12 overall

[Coin Flip 0]

He will be a great player to monitor how he does this year.....I know I will have one eye on him, but I dont own him much.

[Raider 84 29]

I think he is very capable of being a top 10 fantasy rb, but I think it is too much of a risk to draft him as a top 10 rb going into the draft. I'd grab him in the 3rd round or late 2nd. There is always a lot of risk with rookies, but every year one or two bust out, the problem is pick the right one.

[softball 0]

Mathews is getting a ton of hype, but is the offensive line good enough?

 

3'

[RosterDoc 0]

The O-line is shotty....but Matthews will take 85% of the snaps and get the goal line carries. Sproles is no more than a 3rd down back.

 

Now if Vincent Jackson stays out that will hurt and defenses will stack 8 or 9 in the box. I think Matthews is a safe pick in the mid-late second round. 1000 yards and 10 TDs should be his minimum.

 

Mathews is getting a ton of hype, but is the offensive line good enough?

 

3'

 

 

 

[ravenwood 1]

I think he can be a top-10 back for the first 13 weeks of the season, but worry about him hitting the proverbial rookie wall come playoff time. Having said that, I will pay what it takes to make him my RB2 since he will be the featured back.

[RosterDoc 0]

I think the schedule will help him with the rookie wall.

 

Week 13 - Oakland

Week 14 - Kansas City

Week 15 - San Fran

Week 16 - Cincy

Week 17 - Denver

 

Oakland and KC are cake walks...the others have average run defenses.

 

 

I think he can be a top-10 back for the first 13 weeks of the season, but worry about him hitting the proverbial rookie wall come playoff time. Having said that, I will pay what it takes to make him my RB2 since he will be the featured back.

 

 

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

I think the schedule will help him with the rookie wall.

 

Week 13 - Oakland

Week 14 - Kansas City

Week 15 - San Fran

Week 16 - Cincy

Week 17 - Denver

 

Oakland and KC are cake walks...the others have average run defenses.

 

I hope he thinks of patrick willis as "average" when he is face to face with him.

[RosterDoc 0]

Yeah WIllis is a beast and Matthews may not have a lot of yards in that game...but SD moves the ball and he'll get TDs.

 

I hope he thinks of patrick willis as "average" when he is face to face with him.

 

 

 

[kmbryant09 1]

The O-line is shotty....but Matthews will take 85% of the snaps and get the goal line carries. Sproles is no more than a 3rd down back.

 

Now if Vincent Jackson stays out that will hurt and defenses will stack 8 or 9 in the box. I think Matthews is a safe pick in the mid-late second round. 1000 yards and 10 TDs should be his minimum.

Look - he's got all the hype of a top10 RB this season - just like every rookie getting drafted into a decent situation garners. But there's SO MUCH risk.

 

Look at Mendenhall a few years ago...get's hurt in the first few (1st?) weeks of the season and misses the entire year. That same draft class penciled in D. McFadden as the next HOF RB. Felix Jones hasn't been fantasy relevant in his first 2 seasons. And as talented as J. Stewart is, he isn't even a starter. I'm not saying you can predict these things, but with a top15 pick, I'm sure as hell not putting that many eggs in a rookie's basket.

 

I think the biggest tell for a rookie is how good his offensive line is, along with his team's commitment to the run. Like Adrian Peterson a few years ago getting to run behind Hutchinson and that monsterous OLine. Like Shonn Greene this year, late in the season, behind the #1 offensive line. Like Chris Johnson 2 seasons ago getting to run behind Tennessee's dominant offensive line...I just don't see that kind of production out of ANY running back in San Diego. I know a lot of the problem was LT, but I've been saying for awhile that the offensive line is just a shell of what they used to be. And on top of that, their star left tackle may be holding out for most of the season. Also, this is a pass-first, pass-second type of team. Even if he's given 250 carries, I don't see him getting much more than 1,000 yards and 8-10 TD's - that'd be a good year. Who knows, maybe he can't handle a full workload in the NFL, maybe he hits the rookie wall and puts up a 3.5 ypc mark.

 

If I'm drafting in the 2nd round, I'd rather draft a reliable WR (Moss, Wayne, Fitzgerald, Austin), or a near-sure-thing-QB (Rodgers, Brees, Manning), or a safer RB option (Ryan Grant, Jamaal Charles, D Williams).