Why is Dez Bryant better than Julio Jones this year?

[da_mane_man 1]

both are on what should be really good offenses. both have a good qb throwing them the ball. both are playing opposite a #1 WR. both have reliable veteran TEs in the middle of the field. both are physical specimens with similar body types. dez is 6'2 220 and julio is 6'3 225.

 

the only difference is that julio is a rookie and dez has had one year in the nfl.

[Giants Fan 85]

Rookie.

[Fireballer 2,381]

I'm really with you on this. I think Julio should perform way better than his ADP. I added him everywhere I could, usually in the the 8th or 9th. I'm thinking 800-7. I know it may be a bunch of lip service, but Atlanta thinks this guy is the real deal the way they are talking about him. I don't think it's likely but it wouldn't suprise me if he is closer to 1000-8. I'm all in on Ryan going for 30+ TDs this year. If Roddy catches 10, Gonzo 5, Julio 7, that leaves a few more for Douglas etc... I'm not talking top 10, but should be solid.

[Sho Nuff 719]

 

the only difference is that julio is a rookie and dez has had one year in the nfl.

 

You answered your question right there.

[da_mane_man 1]

You answered your question right there.

 

yeah and look at the number dez put up in half a year last year after being injured initially... with jon kitna as his qb. julio is considered as nfl ready as dez was last year, if not more so because of mental maturity.

[SameSongNDance 0]

yeah and look at the number dez put up in half a year last year after being injured initially... with jon kitna as his qb. julio is considered as nfl ready as dez was last year, if not more so because of mental maturity.

 

Mental maturity aside, the intangible of having experience with your offense makes it so said player can reach their ceiling much easier.

[Sho Nuff 719]

yeah and look at the number dez put up in half a year last year after being injured initially... with jon kitna as his qb. julio is considered as nfl ready as dez was last year, if not more so because of mental maturity.

 

So with a full year, with Romo instead of Kitna...Dez should be even better. And thus...likely better than Julio.

(I have both of them...so I hope Julio is right there with him with great numbers in the end).

[da_mane_man 1]

So with a full year, with Romo instead of Kitna...Dez should be even better. And thus...likely better than Julio.

(I have both of them...so I hope Julio is right there with him with great numbers in the end).

 

no doubt dez will be better. but who's to say julio won't be just as good? he has a QB just as good as dez does.

 

i understand the hesitation to rank a rookie too high, but the difference in ADPs between 2 players who are so similar is crazy.

[Phurfur 70]

I think Jones will be the better "value" pick.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Dont forget the lockout. Julio just hasn't had much time with the Falcons.

 

Next year would be the time, though Dez's ADP will be significantly higher next season.

[steelers2101 7]

Julio spent time in the offseason with Matt Ryan.

 

I like Julio this year too, taking him in the late 5th in a 14 teamer, which wasn't really a reach considering guys like Collie, Rice, Burress and Garcon were the next WRs to go, and I took him in the 6th in a 12 team keeper league, over Collie, Santana Moss and AJ Green.

 

I think he can have a very big rookie year, the biggest since Anquan Boldin, possibly with more TDs.

[rallo 132]

Dez will probably be better for the following reasons

 

1. better qb

2. not as good of a ground game

3. a Dallas D that gives up lots of points

4. one more year of experience

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Dont neglect the increase in quality at cornerback either. The worst NFL cornerback is a stud athlete and most likely a former star at his college. Jones probably only saw that level of player 3/4 times a year even in the SEC. Facing a cornerback that can run with you and all the onus is on separation/burst/proper route running/timing with QB to gain a fraction of a second advantage where he probably had entire seconds most of his career to make a catch and then turn up field is a little more daunting than we all can truly appreciate. Nevermind that safety that is as big as a small linebacker and much faster coming over to lay the smack down and playing WR in the NFL takes incredible combination of physical and mental toughness. Which of course begs the question if they are that mentally tough, why on earth are they such diva/attention whores for the most part?

 

There is a reason rookie WR's have a tough time adapting to the NFL and a ton of highly drafted WR's have busted over recent years. I really like Julio Jones he looks like a great prospect and a hard worker but I think it takes him at least half the season to adapt and start to flourish.

 

Bryant has already had that half season and 1 more preseason.

[sirensong 111]

polish...a much better working knowledge of the offense...a better intuitive grasp of what his QB is looking for in a given situation...

 

...and a legitimate shot to be the #1 WR this season. the ATL passing offense runs through roddy. the dallas passing offense has no such commitment to austin--it is designed to get guys open. the closest thing to roddy on the cowboys' offense is witten, who is the #1 or #2 read on just about every pass play. IMO, austin and dez are basically going to be interchangeable #1 WRs from an offensive gameplan perspective.

 

jones could be a monster, but that year of experience, plus having an understanding of the offense during the player-only workouts, make dez a much better candidate for fantasy success this season.

[Sho Nuff 719]

Dez will probably be better for the following reasons

 

1. better qb

 

 

Umm...no.

Ryan > Romo

[rallo 132]

Umm...no.

Ryan > Romo

 

i disagree

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Umm...no.

Ryan > Romo

 

i disagree as well. Matty ice has never hit 4000 yards and last year he had a career high 91.0 QB rating. Romo has had a higher QB rating in each of the past FIVE seasons. You're just another typical Romo hater. Dez has a very good chance of finishing the season as the #1 WR in Dallas whereas Julio has no chance this year, next year, or the next. I'd rather have AJ Green over Julio simply because i figure the bengals will be losing a lot this year and will have to throw a lot and jerome simpson is no roddy white.

[Sho Nuff 719]

i disagree as well. Matty ice has never hit 4000 yards and last year he had a career high 91.0 QB rating. Romo has had a higher QB rating in each of the past FIVE seasons. You're just another typical Romo hater. Dez has a very good chance of finishing the season as the #1 WR in Dallas whereas Julio has no chance this year, next year, or the next. I'd rather have AJ Green over Julio simply because i figure the bengals will be losing a lot this year and will have to throw a lot and jerome simpson is no roddy white.

Tony Romo hater?

Because I prefer Ryan to him?

Wow...nice leap of logic there.

And Romo has a higher rating in each of the last 5 seasons? Impressive...considering Ryan has only been in the league for 3 years.

Comparing yards is a bit ridiculous given the total differences in their offenses too.

 

AJ Green over Julio...sorry...that seems like an awful move there too.

[sirensong 111]

Tony Romo hater?

Because I prefer Ryan to him?

Wow...nice leap of logic there.

And Romo has a higher rating in each of the last 5 seasons? Impressive...considering Ryan has only been in the league for 3 years.

Comparing yards is a bit ridiculous given the total differences in their offenses too.

 

AJ Green over Julio...sorry...that seems like an awful move there too.

 

you're completely missing the point he was making--ryan's career best rating is lower than the ratings that romo has put up for 5 consecutive seasons. that means ryan's best is still lower than romo's worst.

 

and since we're talking about julio, ryan's stats are extremely relevant to julio's production. this is, after all, a fantasy football forum, where yardage and TDs figure large.

[Sho Nuff 719]

you're completely missing the point he was making--ryan's career best rating is lower than the ratings that romo has put up for 5 consecutive seasons. that means ryan's best is still lower than romo's worst.

 

and since we're talking about julio, ryan's stats are extremely relevant to julio's production. this is, after all, a fantasy football forum, where yardage and TDs figure large.

 

Well, Ive never been a fan of rating anyway.

And lets be honest in the fact that ATL has been mostly a rushing team with only one huge target in White and an aging TG.

With Turner getting more wear and tear, Im betting they will be passing more, and adding a weapon like Julio will help the passing numbers.

[sirensong 111]

Well, Ive never been a fan of rating anyway.

And lets be honest in the fact that ATL has been mostly a rushing team with only one huge target in White and an aging TG.

With Turner getting more wear and tear, Im betting they will be passing more, and adding a weapon like Julio will help the passing numbers.

 

and that's the evidence you're providing in order to support this statement...

 

View PostSho Nuff, on 09 September 2011 - 08:26 AM, said:

 

Umm...no.

Ryan > Romo

 

...in a thread about why dez would be better than julio this season?

 

i dunno man. i usually pay attention to what you have to say, because you often have a good point to make. but this is just silly.

[steelers2101 7]

you're completely missing the point he was making--ryan's career best rating is lower than the ratings that romo has put up for 5 consecutive seasons. that means ryan's best is still lower than romo's worst.

 

and since we're talking about julio, ryan's stats are extremely relevant to julio's production. this is, after all, a fantasy football forum, where yardage and TDs figure large.

 

Are you guys talking about passer rating? Because that is a thing of the past. Ryan had quite a good QBR last year, better than Romo, I believe. Meaning, Ryan > Romo.

[sirensong 111]

Are you guys talking about passer rating? Because that is a thing of the past. Ryan had quite a good QBR last year, better than Romo, I believe. Meaning, Ryan > Romo.

 

2010 season

 

ryan: 91.0

romo: 94.9

 

2009 season

 

ryan: 80.9

romo: 97.6

 

2008 season

 

ryan: 87.7

romo: 91.4

 

career

 

ryan: 86.9

romo: 95.5

[Domenic 0]

Ryan>Romo

[illini9825 7]

Any and all rookie WR are bigger risks especially this year. I stay far away from them choosing more proven vets. As far as QB's go, they are about equal in my opinion. Both can win regular season games, are extremely overloved by the media (ESPN), and haven't really done much in the playoffs yet.

[Sho Nuff 719]

and that's the evidence you're providing in order to support this statement...

 

 

 

...in a thread about why dez would be better than julio this season?

 

i dunno man. i usually pay attention to what you have to say, because you often have a good point to make. but this is just silly.

 

Never claimed it was evidence.

Never claimed I "had" evidence other than what I have seen when they play.

 

Oh, and I have said Dez will be better than Julio...just was not agreeing that it will be because he has the better QB.

[Sho Nuff 719]

2010 season

 

ryan: 91.0

romo: 94.9

 

2009 season

 

ryan: 80.9

romo: 97.6

 

2008 season

 

ryan: 87.7

romo: 91.4

 

career

 

ryan: 86.9

romo: 95.5

 

He was talking about the new made up rating formula...the QB rating.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/year/2010/seasontype/2

 

And even by that, comparing to Romo last year who was hurt is not relaly a good comparison.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I have both Dez Bryant and Julio Jones on my team. I'm definately starting Bryant, I'm buying the hype on that guy. But Julio Jones might have to prove it to me first in game one before I take him off my bench to replace Steve Smith(Carolina). Playing in Chicago might be one of those games where neither team really moves the ball well and turns into a very sluggish game. Atlanta might just be happy to play field position all day on Chicago. I know the Jets are tough in New York, but assuming Romo connects with somebody, I'm thinking Bryant is the most likely candidate. Bryant pushed Roy Williams out and should be getting those targets. I hope Julio Jones blows up in week 1 like Andy Behrens of Yahoo predicted, but I'm not so sure. I'd rather maybe get Steve Smith catching 1 or 2 late touchdown passes from Cam Newton when the game is so out of reach Arizona doesn't really care anymore.

[MDC 5,890]

Reasons that Dez is a better bet than Julio:

 

1. Experience. Dez has a year under his belt and Julio is a rookie. Wideouts have an extremely high bust rate in general, and even the receivers who end up having great careers rarely produce in their first seasons. Last year Mike Williams was great, but before him you have to go back to Marques Colston in 2006 to find a fantasy relevant rookie wideout. That's five years between rookie wideouts who produced 1,000 or more yards and 8 or more TDs, and neither of them were first round picks. No matter how good Julio is, the odds are stacked against him putting up the kind of numbers (either 900+ yards or 8+ TDs) that would justify having him crack a starting roster.

 

2. Situation: Atlanta runs one of the most conservative offenses in the NFL. Dallas throws the ball much, much more. Despite having a great young QB and one of the best receivers in the NFL, Atlanta finished 15th in passing last year. Despite losing its starting QB for almost all of last season, Dallas ranked 6th. There's a good chance Dallas will finish with more than 4,000 passing yards versus around 3,500 for Atlanta. And in addition to having a bigger pie to split, Dez is undoubtedly a lot closer in talent than Austin if not better right now. There is zero chance that Julio Jones is right now a better receiver than Roddy White.

 

3. Talent: Dez was considered the best receiving prospect to come out of college in years. Julio was the second best in his own class. Dez fell entirely due to personality issues - he'd have been a surefire Top 10 pick and likely Top 5 if it weren't for those concerns. Julio had serious problems catching the ball in college and was generally considered a massive reach by a team desperate to add a complementary wideout. I'm not saying things are going to shake out that way - Michael Crabtree was also considered an elite prospect and thus far he hasn't panned out. But scouts generally saw Terrell Owens / Larry Fitz type potential in Dez and I'm not sure you can say the same about Julio.

 

Over the course of their career who knows? But I won't be shocked if Dez ends up with something like 1,100 or more receiving yards with ten TDs. I'll be absolutely stunned if Julio in his first year does better than around 800 and 7-8, and that's his ceiling. I'd say that's more like Dez's floor.

 

My two cents.

[sirensong 111]

He was talking about the new made up rating formula...the QB rating.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/year/2010/seasontype/2

 

And even by that, comparing to Romo last year who was hurt is not relaly a good comparison.

 

check the link, and select 'all players'. ryan: 91.0 romo: 94.9 romo had a significant advantage in every measurable statistic except INTs. if we dismiss last season because of romo's injury, we still see that ryan at his best was still significantly worse that romo at his worst. romo put up almost equal numbers (and a better passer rating) while playing in only 13 games, including 4 with an injury to his throwing hand.

 

better rating, more YPG, more TDPG, and the big one...a full yard better per attempt without a strong runner to take the pressure off.

 

so how is ryan better?

[sirensong 111]

 

2. Situation: Atlanta runs one of the most conservative offenses in the NFL. Dallas throws the ball much, much more.

 

factually incorrect. last season, ryan had 571 attempts, which is more than romo has ever had in his career. even though they were playing from behind most of last season, and did not have a good running game, dallas as a team still had fewer pass attempts than atlanta.

[MDC 5,890]

factually incorrect. last season, ryan had 571 attempts, which is more than romo has ever had in his career. even though they were playing from behind most of last season, and did not have a good running game, dallas as a team still had fewer pass attempts than atlanta.

 

Last year Atlanta threw the ball around 54% of the time versus 58% of the time for Dallas last season, even though Romo missed most of the season. Part of that was the fact that Dallas was playing from behind for most of the year, but so what? The Cowboys probably will be playing from behind or involved in shootouts all of this year, too. They'll also have a better QB behind center. The other big stat that jumps out at me is yards per attempt. Atlanta averaged 6.5 versus around 7.5 for Dallas. John Kitna averaged almost a yard more per pass attempt. I'm not saying Kitna or Romo are better than Ryan but it does tell me that Dallas takes more downfield shots. That's why they ended up with around 500 more total passing yards and finished 6th in passing versus 15th for Atlanta. It's also why Austin, Dez, and Roy Williams all had more YPC than Roddy White.

 

Either way, I think Dez is in for a better year than Julio this season, for a variety of reasons.

[urban1 0]

dez bryant is still a bit of a wild card in terms of being a head case.he's stayed out of the news for a few months but lets wait till he has a bad game or the cowboys face some adversity. He still hasn't proved himself.

 

On the other hand, Julio hasn't proved anything at all yet.

 

My prediction is both will have good years. I don't know if Julio will surpass Dez but Julio will have a solid year amongst all WRs not just rookies.

[Sho Nuff 719]

check the link, and select 'all players'. ryan: 91.0 romo: 94.9 romo had a significant advantage in every measurable statistic except INTs. if we dismiss last season because of romo's injury, we still see that ryan at his best was still significantly worse that romo at his worst. romo put up almost equal numbers (and a better passer rating) while playing in only 13 games, including 4 with an injury to his throwing hand.

 

better rating, more YPG, more TDPG, and the big one...a full yard better per attempt without a strong runner to take the pressure off.

 

so how is ryan better?

 

Because not everything is about stats when discussing which QB is better.

Is Manning automatically better than Brady?

[American Chewy 98]

when was the last time a rookie wr lived up to the hype? randy moss? i drafted julio as a late flyer WR4, but i really don't expect to start him unless i have a lot of injuries.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

all i'm trying to say is:

 

there is no statistical evidence that Matty ice is better than Tony Romo. Yeah, he's younger, but all the QBs ranked ahead of him are older anyway. Yeah his team was ranked #1 after the season is over but that doesn't translate to fantasy points. The chargers sucked last year but everybody still wants Philip Rivers on their fantasy team.

 

Dez Bryant has a very good chance at unseating Miles Austin as the #1 in Dallas, this year. Austin had a statistical decline in his numbers last year, and maybe some of that had to do with Romo. But you have to figure that Romo had a lot to do with his breakout season in 2009. Roy Williams is gone. All signs point to Dez being a BIG part of the offense.

 

Julio plays opposite Roddy White. The WR that had 115 catches last year. Julio will be the #2 option this year, next year, and the next.

 

I want the guy that has the upside of being the #1 option on a passing team as early as this year.

[el_duderino 0]

I like both. And would draft both.

 

Both offenses are great. They both are physically gifted but for me Dez is in a different category.

 

In my opinion Dez is the best offensive player on his team. And one of the top WR in the game. I was asked for my interest in trading Dez and who I would take straight up at WR....I could only name 4 guys....Andre, Calvin, V. Jack and Fitz. I wouldn't even take Roddy or Nicks straight up for Dez....but when I have a high grade on a player I tend to want to ride him out.

[sirensong 111]

Because not everything is about stats when discussing which QB is better.

Is Manning automatically better than Brady?

 

when it comes to the production of secondary receivers, production of the QB is the only salient metric. you can quibble, or you can offer murky prognostications that "mebbe this season will be better", but that's just empty talk.

 

barring injuries to both parties, ryan's ceiling might make it up to romo's floor. if i'm wrong, bump the thread and i'll eat crow.

[steelers2101 7]

He was talking about the new made up rating formula...the QB rating.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/year/2010/seasontype/2

 

And even by that, comparing to Romo last year who was hurt is not relaly a good comparison.

 

I don't think that's the right link. QBR maxes out at 100.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6834507/nfl-peyton-manning-top-two-qbr-seasons

 

Ryan

2008 - 72.6

2009 - 57.7

2010 - 68.6

 

Romo

2008 - 50.1

2009 - 64.4

2010 - 58.1

 

Ryan>Romo

[steelers2101 7]

all i'm trying to say is:

 

there is no statistical evidence that Matty ice is better than Tony Romo.

 

See above.