Is Cam Newton a 1st Rd Pick Next Year?

[browns16-0 30]

Ok. 8 games into his rookie season and he is on pace for 4,800 passing yards 22 tds, 650 rushing yards and 14 rushing tds. This is a rookie! I can only assume he is going to get better next season. I mean hell, Mike Vick was a 1st round pick in many leagues this season and Newton is on pace to do even better.

[thesitedoc 5]

At this point, yes. The league has become a QB league and he is right up there in terms of PPG with Aaron Rodgers.

[jrbdmb 28]

IMHO, no. Rodgers is the only QB who has proven to be worth a 1st round pick. He is in a class by himself.

 

Cam is in the next group with Brees / Stafford / Brady / Vick. Somewhere in the 2nd / early 3rd round for sure.

[SFGeek 0]

Heck yes.

He probably would have had another TD yesterday if not for the holding call at 5 yard line on last drive. With time for two more plays, 1st and goal from 5, you know he'd have the run throw option.

[Sho Nuff 720]

Reminds me of Culpepper's numbers and he was a high 2nd to 1st round pick in several drafts.

So you can definitely justify pushing him into the 1st round.

[Lay the Mallett Down 0]

Sophomore slump anyone?

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,348]

I think he will be a 1st rounder, especially in my league which is a 15 teamer. I would rather have him then any QB not named Rodgers, but it will allow some decent QB's to slip

[da_mane_man 1]

Sophomore slump anyone?

 

yup

[p00h 85]

Check out the discussion had last year at the end of the season about how the 2011 draft should look like...

 

I took a very strong stasnce that Vick should be #1 overall, due to the fact that he's a qb1 and a rb2 all in 1 player. That hasn't really materialized to this stage of the season, and I'll gladly eat crow on it, but some very interesting points being thrown around in there...

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=379043&st=0

 

 

For me, the 1st round is about 2 things. Grabbing a player with a proven history of producing. ADP, Rice, MJD and definitely Rogers fit this bill. Secondly, its about avoiding the duds! CJ this year would qualify, though he'd also qualify as a proven commodity having put up solid numbers for 3 years...

 

Based on these 2 simple rules, I am a pretty big proponent of grabbing a qb in the 1st round, unless you have top 3 pick and can get an ADP or MJD or rice, and now foster moving forward. People seem to strongly disagree. Here's the thing. top qbs have the least chance of busting of any player at any position. Add to that the fact that RBs are more prone to missing time, and for me its a no brainer. Having said all that, I would not pick Cam in teh 1st round next year. Why would you, if you have the chance to grab a rodgers or vick or brees. THey're all proven, and you know you can lock in a certain floor of production with them. Cam can very well come out next year with a huge sophmore slump, and now you'd be fighting upstream bigtime...

[browns16-0 30]

Reminds me of Culpepper's numbers and he was a high 2nd to 1st round pick in several drafts.

So you can definitely justify pushing him into the 1st round.

 

Yeah, I took Culpeper no.3 the season after his monster year in a 2qb league. I don't think Daunte played 7 games that year, hopefully that won't be the case with Newton, I enjoy watching the guy play at such a high level.

[browns16-0 30]

Sophomore slump anyone?

 

I am just curious to the reasoning behind this. He has all the physical tools to make plays with his arm and legs. He should be more well versed in the offense and speed of the game. Carolina is also going to have another high draft pick to add more weapons to this team. I understand teams will be game planning to stop Newton, but aren't they doing that already to no avail? I am not sure it is possible for him to repeat these numbers, but with his running ability I believe his floor is much higher than some people think.

[p00h 85]

I am just curious to the reasoning behind this. He has all the physical tools to make plays with his arm and legs. He should be more well versed in the offense and speed of the game. Carolina is also going to have another high draft pick to add more weapons to this team. I understand teams will be game planning to stop Newton, but aren't they doing that already to no avail? I am not sure it is possible for him to repeat these numbers, but with his running ability I believe his floor is much higher than some people think.

 

reasoning behind it is history. Many players, some having had far greater rookie seasons than Cam, have had the sophomore slump. It just happens. It's likely part mental, part the league doing more study on said rookies, etcetcetc. Not saying Cam will, I don't know that. But it's not out of the realm of possibility. In relation to this topic, why would you want to take that chance and draft him in the 1st when there are 3 other qbs that are proven commodities that you can have in that first round instead...

[prisoners 2]

He won't be in my league....I'm keeping him! (12 team, 3 player keeper league) He was pretty much the last player I selected in our auction league.

[jerryskids 6,791]

Looking at it from a VBD perspective, I don't think so. This year there was a clear top tier of Rodgers and Vick, who typically went in the first two rounds. Guys like Brady, Brees, Rivers (oops), went later. I think Brady and Brees move up for next year, and if you include Vick, that is 5 QBs at or near the top, with Rodgers at the top (perhaps his own tier). Throw in Stafford and you've got half of the starters in a 12-teamer. Would I take Cam if I thought I could get Brady or Brees on the turn? Probably not.

 

I'll probably pass and let somebody else take the risk.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

I don't know about the 1st round, but if I have a late pick again next year I'd gladly take him early second after the turn.

 

He's the future of this league and I applaud the kid for proving his VERY vocal critics wrong with his game.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I'll be keeping him in the 14th round.

[420allstars 13]

I'll be keeping him in the 14th round.

 

Very Nice! I am thrilled to keep him in the 4th (waiver wire price)

[mhaggy 0]

Nah, I don't think so. I kinda buy into the sophmore slump idea (does anyone have a link on a statistical breakdown of whether a "sophmore slump" actually exists for QBs? It seems to happen all the time) but mostly I think it's just because there are too many good RBs right now (ADP, Gore, Shady McCoy, Foster, Forte, Fred Jackson, Ray Rice, MJD, maybe Turner, maybe McFadden if he can stay healthy the rest of the year) plus Rodgers. The first round is all about avoiding duds and I think Cam has the potential to be a big dud, although he could also blow up. The reason not to take Cam high is the same reason to not take Vick high from this year, and not taking Vick is looking pretty smart so far (unless you took CJ2k... lol).

[Matt Mueller 146]

I am just curious to the reasoning behind this. He has all the physical tools to make plays with his arm and legs. He should be more well versed in the offense and speed of the game. Carolina is also going to have another high draft pick to add more weapons to this team. I understand teams will be game planning to stop Newton, but aren't they doing that already to no avail? I am not sure it is possible for him to repeat these numbers, but with his running ability I believe his floor is much higher than some people think.

 

The biggest factor for a fall off IMO is the rushing scores.

 

Just look at how many Vick had last year compared to his current pace this year.

 

We are also witnessing a Steve Smith revival. How much does he have left in the tank?

[saut 7]

Keeping him in the 13th round, but also considering drafting an insurance guy in the 4-5 range. Hard to say right now.

[drapg 0]

Keeping him in the 13th round, but also considering drafting an insurance guy in the 4-5 range. Hard to say right now.

 

same boat as you... keeping him in the 14th round but am not quite sold on him being my QB1 next year (sophomore slump) and will likely draft an insurance guy in the same range... right now I have brees/newton and newton has not seen my starting lineup yet... wish he did this week after the dud of a performance the saints had against the vaunted Rams.

[Maroon Bells 18]

Probably, but I wouldn't take him. I have him this year and love what he's doing, but it's going to be much much harder for him to do it again next year. What will be really interesting is to see where Chris Johnson goes. If the season ended today, he'd probably drop into the 3rd or 4th round. Could be a huge steal for someone.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Probably, but I wouldn't take him. I have him this year and love what he's doing, but it's going to be much much harder for him to do it again next year. What will be really interesting is to see where Chris Johnson goes. If the season ended today, he'd probably drop into the 3rd or 4th round. Could be a huge steal for someone.

How silly. Assume it will be much harder for Cam and then state Johnson could be a huge steal in the 3rd/4th. Why not share that in one of the many CJ Sux threads. Cam is a winner, this is a thread about winners. Chris Johnson is a loser, his name doesn't belong in here.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,348]

Sam Bradford, perfect example of sophomore slump. He was considered a 12 team QB1 going into the season, look what happened...

 

I agree Cam has far more upside and his running potential I believe makes him immune to the sophomore slump thing

[Maroon Bells 18]

The biggest factor for a fall off IMO is the rushing scores.

 

Just look at how many Vick had last year compared to his current pace this year.

 

We are also witnessing a Steve Smith revival. How much does he have left in the tank?

 

I wouldn't call it a revival. It's just Smith being healthy for the first time in two years and having a decent QB for the first time ever. Because at 32 Smith isn't that old. Marvin Harrison went to 2 Pro Bowls after age 32. Cris Carter went to 4. Jerry Rice went to 5. Smith will good this year and next. I'd start paying attention to his age at 34. In my experience that's when you start to see some serious decline in receivers.

[ACL's 0]

How silly. Assume it will be much harder for Cam and then state Johnson could be a huge steal in the 3rd/4th. Why not share that in one of the many CJ Sux threads. Cam is a winner, this is a thread about winners. Chris Johnson is a loser, his name doesn't belong in here.

 

Cam is a fantasy "winner" that's for sure. Not sure about NFL Winning QB but, you know, who cares if you are not a Carolina fan and own him. I love this guy. If he stays healthy he will be a stud year in year. And it's difficult to predict the INJ. He's a big strong fellow that is entertaining as all get out. I've got him and plan on freezing him unless DeMarco has Emmitt potential. (Hmmm, does he?) The kid can't just flat ball.

[Maroon Bells 18]

How silly. Assume it will be much harder for Cam and then state Johnson could be a huge steal in the 3rd/4th. Why not share that in one of the many CJ Sux threads. Cam is a winner, this is a thread about winners. Chris Johnson is a loser, his name doesn't belong in here.

 

Chris Johnson is certainly a loser this season. Just like Darren McFadden was a loser in 2009. And Steve Smith was a loser in 2010.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Cam is a fantasy "winner" that's for sure. Not sure about NFL Winning QB but, you know, who cares if you are not a Carolina fan and own him. I love this guy. If he stays healthy he will be a stud year in year. And it's difficult to predict the INJ. He's a big strong fellow that is entertaining as all get out. I've got him and plan on freezing him unless DeMarco has Emmitt potential. (Hmmm, does he?) The kid can't just flat ball.

Wha? Huh?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Chris Johnson is certainly a loser this season. Just like Darren McFadden was a loser in 2009. And Steve Smith was a loser in 2010.

Try to stay on topic. TIA

[ACL's 0]

Wha? Huh?

 

Year in, year "out". Sorry, man, left out the "out". Never heard of a player that can "ball"? Seriously??? But of course, he CAN ball, not can't.

[nobody 2,670]

We'll have to see how the year ends. As teams start to figure him out, he'll probably drop off a bit, but what he's done so far is flat out amazing.

[gocolts 300]

Wha? Huh?

[Runningriot1966 6]

He is legit no doubt but I would rather have the likes of a Rice/ Brees combo than a Newton/stephen Jackson combo. I do think his ceiling is now though, I do not see him making some of the plays I have seen this year again next year. Steve Smith has been on fire, crazy good and made some plays that looked like extreme luck to me. Also, I think some teams might have taken the Panthers for granted this year. And, are they really going to keep giving him the goalline carries as he becomes the most valuable player on the team. I mean why not give the ball to the RB for the 2 yard plunge. I dont see him repeating this season next year but hey, I love the guy he is going to be a one of the best qbs in the game in the future. He looks like a 4 year vet today!

[IGotWorms 4,058]

I'd say he is an early to mid second rounder right now. If he finishes the season strong he could end up a first rounder. If he tapers off even a little bit people will say "NFL defense are figuring him out!" and the like and he'll probably end up a late second or third rounder.

[beemo 0]

The biggest factor for a fall off IMO is the rushing scores.

 

Just look at how many Vick had last year compared to his current pace this year.

 

We are also witnessing a Steve Smith revival. How much does he have left in the tank?

 

Brandon Lafell is a more than capable WR who Newton always overlooks for some reason. Perhaps it's because he's playing opposite Steve Smith. I'd imagine in the off season Carolina will enhance the offense around Newton with confidence given how strongly he's played in his first year.

 

The concern I'd have is the same for all running QBs; they present a higher injury risk. It's awesome for the points, but then you have someone like Vick losing usuable games due to the extra hits he takes. Cam looks stronger than Vick, but he still exposes himself to more abuse, a risk I'd not be entirely comfortable taking in the first round.

[chroniciguana 13]

His Average Draft Position could be artificially reduced as a result of the way many keeper leagues work. If he was drafted this season, he was drafted low. He was most likely a waiver wire grab. Which means he gets recorded on the computers as a last round (or close to it) pick next year.

 

I'm not sure what impact the keeper thing will have considering the huge number of drafts combined to calculate ADP. But if it's enough to push him into the second (or lower) round, those who rely on the mentality of the mob (aka, collective wisdom) to dictate their picks will likely be in for a surprise if they're targeting Newton as a late second-rounder. Or whatever their ADP cheat sheets tell them to do.

 

I'm keeping him. So in our league, and on the big computer in California, he'll go on the books as a 13th rounder. Statistics lie.

[ReedYourPass 0]

The reason for Sophomore slumps (I'd extend that even a year or two beyond that for young QBs) is that the league gets a full year of film on you and then they adjust and know your tendencies. Look at all the QBs who had great rookie years (and even second and third years) and now are struggling now that the league has found their weaknesses. These players include Bradford, Flacco, Ryan, Sanchez, and Freeman.

[ACL's 0]

The reason for Sophomore slumps (I'd extend that even a year or two beyond that for young QBs) is that the league gets a full year of film on you and then they adjust and know your tendencies. Look at all the QBs who had great rookie years (and even second and third years) and now are struggling now that the league has found their weaknesses. These players include Bradford, Flacco, Ryan, Sanchez, and Freeman.

 

I totally understand the familiarity of the "Sophomore", and obviously this is MHO, but as good as Bradford, Flacco, Ryan, and Sanchez are, they are not close to the fantasy player that Cam is. They can't make the plays he makes. They may be better NFl QB's but they don't make great fantasy players. Very solid maybe but not Cam-like. Long story short, Cam is more talented and can roll over in his sleep and score fantasy points. The injury arguement earlier makes me more leary of him than does a Sophomore slump.

 

Whoever said his ceiling is right now brings up an interesting point. That could be. If Carolina wants to win, they have to pound the rock with someone besides Newton. That probably won't increase Newton's fantasy points a lot but improve his skills as a winning NFL QB. More WR weapons just might send him into Rogers territory. Rogers is amazing but his weapons are incredible.

[DanXIII 8]

I personally think the guy has all the tools to be great for years to come, especially if they continue to build the offense around him. I wouldn't take him in the first round next year, but I'd consider him in the late second, especially in leagues that award 6 points for passing TDs.

[Cruzer 1,995]

I wouldn't take him in the first round next year, but I'd consider him in the late second, especially in leagues that award 6 points for passing TDs.

In leagues such as this, I'd be shocked if he were still there past the end of round 1, much less making it to the end of round 2.