*** Official Week 9 NFL Gambling Thread ***

[Giants Fan 85]

Early lines:

 

Atlanta -7 @ Indianapolis

@ New Orleans -8 Tampa Bay

@ Houston -11 Cleveland

@ Buffalo -1.5 NY Jets

@ Kansas City -5 Miami

San Francisco -3.5 @ Washington

@ Dallas -12 Seattle

@ Oakland -8 Denver

@ Tennessee -3 Cincinnati

@ Arizona -3.5 St. Louis

@ New England -8.5 NY Giants

Green Bay -6 @ San Diego

@ Pittsburgh -3 Baltimore

@ Philadelphia -8 Chicago

[Giants Fan 85]

Early upset pick: Cinci

[Pavlov 0]

Right now I'm liking Cinci, Buffalo and the Giants at first glance.

[Giants Fan 85]

How about St. Louis?

[rotisserieking 34]

How about St. Louis?

 

I'm starting to like this more and more if Kolb does not play. Hoping what we saw last week is a glimpse of the potential but could also have been a huge emotional win that deflates them. Probably more like it carries the Rams forward a couple weeks.

 

I do a Pick4 and the lines were set Tuesday, here is what I'm thinking:

ATL -7.5

SF -3.5

CIN +2.5

GB +5.5

 

What bothers me in this scenario is they're all road teams. Alternates are STL +3.5, SEA +12.5, PHI -6.5

[Pavlov 0]

I'm starting to like this more and more if Kolb does not play. Hoping what we saw last week is a glimpse of the potential but could also have been a huge emotional win that deflates them. Probably more like it carries the Rams forward a couple weeks.

 

I do a Pick4 and the lines were set Tuesday, here is what I'm thinking:

ATL -7.5

SF -3.5

CIN +2.5

GB +5.5

 

What bothers me in this scenario is they're all road teams. Alternates are STL +3.5, SEA +12.5, PHI -6.5

 

Yeah, St. Louis is a tough call until the QB situation gets sorted out. My lean would be one St. Louis, but it's too soon to call.

 

Does anyone else look at the SF line and think it's really really weird. All the public money is on SF and it's not moving. Those sorts of games scream "stay away!" to me.

[rotisserieking 34]

Yeah, St. Louis is a tough call until the QB situation gets sorted out. My lean would be one St. Louis, but it's too soon to call.

 

Does anyone else look at the SF line and think it's really really weird. All the public money is on SF and it's not moving. Those sorts of games scream "stay away!" to me.

 

Completely agree - based on stats and performance I would expect the line to be more like 5/5.5 on the road for them. This is definitely a teaser but I can't figure out why - the Skins can't pass, can't run, can't do much of anything and the Niners have proven they can go to the East coast and win. Usually these lines end up biting me so I might change this pick to PHI -6.5.

 

The KC line is also odd at -5.5 considering MIA hasn't won and KC is on a roll. This game scares me but that line is tempting.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

The KC line is also odd at -5.5 considering MIA hasn't won and KC is on a roll. This game scares me but that line is tempting.

 

I don't think KC is a playoff calibre team. They can't run the ball. They have no pass rush. They play the sit and wait game and hit a receiver down field every so often. Now I'm not sure Miami is the greatest NFL team to ever play the game, but isn't Daniel Thomas, the good running back returning? Miami just played the Giants who were fresh off the bye and Miami broke the spread easily. I get the feeling that KC is holding on tight, and could get pushed off the edge here. One idea that's going through my mind is to try to find a second team and tease Miami with it. Still lots of time...

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

One favorite I might go with is New England. They probably still remember the little ass kicking they got in the superbowl of their "undefeated" season from the Giants. Patriots are on their home field now, and might want to show the Giants what could've happened.

[Pavlov 0]

One favorite I might go with is New England. They probably still remember the little ass kicking they got in the superbowl of their "undefeated" season from the Giants. Patriots are on their home field now, and might want to show the Giants what could've happened.

 

As a Pats fan, I hope you're right. But having watched every Pats game this year, that's a LOT of points to give a QB who's playing well vs. a secondary that...well, isn't.

[rotisserieking 34]

One favorite I might go with is New England. They probably still remember the little ass kicking they got in the superbowl of their "undefeated" season from the Giants. Patriots are on their home field now, and might want to show the Giants what could've happened.

 

I do think NE wins outright but I'm now taking the 8.5 points the Giants are getting. It will probably end up something like 34-27 or 31-27 and I hope the Giants cover.

[rotisserieking 34]

The Saints line keeps going up. Opened at -7 and now as much as -10. TB is 6-1 ATS last 7 against NO and after a bye I think they can hold it closer than 10. But my line is -7.5 - risky as 28-20 is a possible score. Also noticed the Philly line moving for PHI up to -9 at some. Mine is -6.5 so CHI is tempting there.

 

I think I am going with:

SF -3.5

STL +3.5

NYG +8.5

CIN +2.5

[swirvenirvin 25]

Well I said this before but could be last week for NFL for me unless we are in the green. not smart to throw away money from props.

 

NFL record 26-40-4 -17.79 units

Props 61-46-2 +13.58 units

 

 

Cowboys(Dallas) -11.5 (-105)Loser

Bills(Buffalo) -2 (-105)Loser

Falcons(Atlanta) -7 (-105)Winner

Dolphins(Miami) +4 (-105)Winner

Buccaneers(TampaBay) +8.5 (-105)Loser

Browns(Cleveland) +10.5 (-105)Loser

49ers(SanFrancisco) -3.5 (-105) Winner

Bengals(Cincinnati) +3 (-125)Winner

Cardinals(Arizona) -3 (even)Winner

Chargers(SanDiego) +6 (-115)Loser

Giants(NewYork) +9 (-105)Winner

Raiders(Oakland) -7.5 (-105)Loser

Ravens(Baltimore) +3.5 (-115)Winner

Bears(Chicago) +7.5 (-105)

[Giants Fan 85]

I made some weird picks this week.

 

Giants, Cinci, St. Louis

 

Giants being the big upset.

 

Eli is playing well, he has a new target in Cruz, Jacobs is motivated, and the NE defense sucks. Giants go ground and pound, and air it out if they need to, great pass rush disrupts Brady. But most importantly NOBODY else will pick it. It's a risk/reward play.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

LEANS ONLY; Noon games

KC -4 ; As ugly as KC won the other night, I think I have to put that behind me and realize the Miami secondary can be tatooed quite easily. KC knows they barely escaped Monday night, and maybe that'll motivate them in this upcoming game. Miami won ATS last week, so even though that doesn't take them to equilibrium status for the season, there isn't the pressing engagement to win ATS this week, like there was last week. I'm not buying into a losing team having to win straight up in this position. I hate the KC pass rush, running game, etc, but KC can game plan. KC can actually play smart with what they have. Miami is a proven loser. So, my current lean, opposite of right after the Monday night game is, KC wins and covers. It isn't unheard of to win 5 straight ATS. I think KC will do that here.

 

 

Washington +4; On the other hand, SF is looking like they will lose this week. ATS speaking, it's time for SF to lose. Wk1, SF wins by 10, Wk.2 they push, Wk.3 they win by 6, Wk.4 SF wins by 11, Wk.5 they win by a whopping 42 points, Wk.6 SF wins by 11 ATS (These are all ATS I'm talking about of course), Week 7 is SF's bye week, Wk#8 SF wins by 1. So, the due factor is in full effect on San Fran because Washington , their opponent lost by 4 in week 6, lost by 10.5 ATS in week 7, and lost by a tremendous 19 ATS last week to Buffalo. So, you can see why SF is due to lose ATS. Combining both the ATS records and margin of loss by Washington last week, it's almost irrefutable that SF loses ATS this week on the due factor theory. The pointspread on SF remained stable @ 3.5 all week until Thursday night. It moved to 4. So, I think watching this spread from this point is key. We know if this spread travels to 4.5 by Sunday morning and to 5 before game time that lots of public money is pouring in on SF. Also Yahoo has SF ATS picked at 85% which is somewhat high.

 

Jets + 2 ; I think the Jets are the better team. I'm not 100% sold on Buffalo yet. Fred Jackson wasn't all that great last year, remember our preseason drafts this year? Ryan Fitzpatrick is ok, but he's not a top 5 quarterback in the NFL. Just because Buffalo's run defense stops Torain, that doesn't make them consistent. I would like to use last year as a barometer. Buffalo was the 15th/16 seeds in the AFC last year. That's bad.The Jets were the 6th seed that derailed the #3 seed in the 1st round last year. The Jets then derailed the #1 seed at the #1 seed's home field last year in the playoffs. Finally, the Jets lost in the AFC championship to the #2 seed. But that game was played in Pittsburgh, and if the game extended another 15 minutes, the Jets would've won. Remember how they got killed in the 1st half, then made a decent run at Pitt in the 2nd half. Tell me what's so different about these 2 teams from last year. Jets win this game, and Buffalo becomes a distant memory as any kind of significant team.

 

 

Dallas -12.5; I like Dallas to what everyone else thinks, and that's bounce back. I think it's too soon for Seattle to upset another NFC east team on their home field. And, Dallas did cover the big spread against the Rams and Dallas does realize they need to do this because of teams coming back on them earlier in the season. Dallas should win by 12.5 or more.

 

Cleveland +10.5; Houston on the other hand, may sink a bit. Houston just got done playing 2 interdivision opponents. By nailing both Tennessee and Jacksonville, Houston will be focusing a little bit less on the hapless Cleveland Browns. I look for a tight game here, but no outright win for Cleveland. Cleveland +10.5 should cover.

 

New Orleans -8.5 ; The Saints have been on the opposite side of the ATS spectrum in the last 2 weeks. Winning ATS by 41.5 two weeks ago, then losing 23.5 ATS last week to the Rams. Overall ATs for the year is 4-4 for the Saints. While Tampa Bay is 3-4 ATS for the season, I'm liking the Saints to do yet another rebound this week. The Saints win at home, and I don't think the revenge minded Bucs will give much resistence in New Orleans. I know every expert is predicting that Blount runs wild on the Saints only because Jackson just did it. Defenses adjust. And the most likely scenerio is that the Saints get on top early and the Bucs have to pass to catch up. Do you really like Blount as a receiver out of the backfield in this situation. Freeman never gets more than 2 touchdowns per game and I don't see it changing here. Saints roll big here.

 

Indianapolis +7; The Colts do play better at home than on the road. The margin of failure against the spread seems to moving in Indy's favor. Overall 2-6 ATS, Indy's last four margins of losing ATS are intersting to look at; Week 5 lost by5.5, Week 6 lost by 5.5, Week 7 lost by the highly publicized 41.5, and Week 8 lost by 9.5. It looks as though the linesmakers are adjusting the line for Indy to get back to equilibrium here. You compare this with Atlanta's last 2 outcomes before the bye week and Wk #6 for Atlanta, they won by 10.5, then Atlanta wins by 11.5 in week #7. There is nothing here to love about Curtis Painter and the Colts, but I'm realizing the Colts are an NFL team, and pointspread adjustments are made by the linemakers on a weekly basis. Linesmakers are continually trying to balance out the strength of the 2 teams that are meeting. I clearly see the Colts due to win this spread in week 9. Not only are the Colts due to win the pointspread, they are very unpopular right now. The yahoo pointspread pick'em has the Colts being liked at 10%. That is very much like the Rams popularity last week if you remember. I'm not saying popularity contests can pick winners, but sometimes it's a factor that can be looked at. The 10% by the Colts is the least popular pick this week of any other team.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I made some weird picks this week.

 

Giants, Cinci, St. Louis

 

Giants being the big upset.

 

Eli is playing well, he has a new target in Cruz, Jacobs is motivated, and the NE defense sucks. Giants go ground and pound, and air it out if they need to, great pass rush disrupts Brady. But most importantly NOBODY else will pick it. It's a risk/reward play.

 

What about the 7 noon games? What are your leans?

[snatchem 0]

i love alanta and the over and sf this week, also i went with dallas, oak, cincy, kc,gb and philly. i kicked ass all yr so but have been crushed the last two weeks....so what do i know. i like playing a lot of $20 3 and 4 teamers for large payouts

[Giants Fan 85]

What about the 7 noon games? What are your leans?

 

Besides what I posted, all my other picks are the favorites.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Besides what I posted, all my other picks are the favorites.

 

Oh, ok because I see only these, "Giants, Cinci, St. Louis" posted from you. There are 14 games this week. So, you're saying the favorites win 11 spreads and the dogs win 3. If you're right, that'll be outstanding predicting. I'm alot more conservative and go for the conventional 50% split or favor dogs slightly. It sounded like you were picking really well last week, so picking 11 favorites out of 14 to cover in week 9 really surprises me.

[Giants Fan 85]

I woulda won $1000 if Rivers didn't fumble that snap.

 

It's just win or lose. No points involved.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Colt McCoy (Browns) Total Completions - Must Play

Under 21.5 (-115)Winner

 

Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Over 99.5 (-115)Loser

 

1.8 units

Eli Manning (Giants) Total Completions - Must Play

Over 22.5 (-115)Loser

 

1.3 units

Victor Cruz (Giants) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (-145)Winner

 

Steve Johnson (Bills) Total Receptions - Must Play)

Under 4.5 (-135)Winner

 

1.1 units

Brandon Marshall (Dolphins) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4.5 (-150)Winner

 

Darrius Heyward-Bey (Raiders) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3.5 (-130)Loser

 

Chris Johnson (Titans) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards - Must Play

Under 70.5 (-115)Loser

 

Antonio Brown (Steelers) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3.5 (+115)Winner

 

Ed Dickson (Ravens) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3.5 (even)Loser

[ru93 0]

My money line parlay tomorrow is the: Texans, Saints, 49ers, and Cowboys all winning. The Saints was the only team that lost in my parlay last week, kind scared the Cowboys might ruin it for me tomorrow but I had to go against the Seahawks on the road.

[phillybear 364]

NFL Football: 63-46-5; +15.3142 units

CFL: 25-23; -1.6 units

NCAA Football: 116-117-8; -34.7189 units

 

Sunday. Will add more. Subject to change.

 

NFL for 5 units

Denver (+7.5)@-130 WINNER

San Diego (+5.5) LOSER

Baltimore (+3.5) WINNER

 

NFL for 3 units

Buffalo (-2.5) LOSER

Miami (+4) WINNER

Washington (+4) LOSER

Seattle (+11) WINNER

Cincinnati (+3)@-130 WINNER

 

NFL for 2 units

Indianapolis (+7)@-130 LOSER

New Orleans (-8.5) WINNER

Houston (-9.5)@-120 WINNER

St Louis (+1.5) LOSER

 

Good luck to all. Especially me.

 

Edit:

NFL Football: 80-51-5; +21.4142 units

CFL: 25-23; -1.6 units

NCAA Football: 116-117-8; -34.7189 units

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

My money line parlay tomorrow is the: Texans, Saints, 49ers, and Cowboys all winning. The Saints was the only team that lost in my parlay last week, kind scared the Cowboys might ruin it for me tomorrow but I had to go against the Seahawks on the road.

Actually, you aren't the only one feeling that way. That's exactly the way I feel. It's a spooky feeling, so it's leading me to make a spook play. Let's first look at the rationale: Last week, we knew that Vegas wasn't going to allow the 5 big moneylines at noon all win. It was too easy since every public Joe would see it and there were only 6 games at noon in week 8. Now in week 9, there are 7 total games, but it's somewhat similar. Moneyline players will be thinking that the one and only trap game was last week with the Saints. So, not learning their lesson from week 8, they'll just repeat their mistake and play all the heavy moneyline favorites at noon in week 9. The week 9 moneyline parlay that might be too obvious is 4 tearm parlay=> Houston ML, New Orleans ML, Atlanta ML, and Dallas ML. that pays $1.17 while risking only $1. It seems like a slam dunk right? Well, that's what nailed so many in week 8. If one loses, you lose your bet. In week 9, Dallas is supposed to bounce back at home after being shutout. To quote Boomer Esiason, "I never wanted to play against a team the week after they got shutout. We always got killed." I think that's what most gamblers believe. However, wouldn't it be a neat trick, if somehow Dallas would lose outright? Do upsets of this nature ever happen? I think they do, but people tend to forget about that when they are laying down their money. I think Atlanta needs to win to keep pace with the Saints, so Atlanta should win straight up. New Orleans plays too well at home for Tampa to have a chance. Houston might play down, but they should still win outright to maintain their grip on the division and possibly looking at a #1 or #2 seed overall. That leaves Dallas as the leading candidate to lose outright of the heavy favorites in week #9. It's a spook pick, but to me it makes the most sense for noon time games in week 9.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Week # 9 Plays:

 

NOON Play/s:

 

5 team parlay ==> Seattle EVEN & Jets +5.5(-190) & New Orleans EVEN & Atlanta EVEN & Houston EVEN; 1 unit LOSER

 

Late games:

 

2nd half Patriots -6,1 unit LOSER

2nd half Chargers +.5, 1 unit WINNER

4th Quarter Patriots -4.5, 1 unit LOSER

[bjsteel 34]

My money line parlay tomorrow is the: Texans, Saints, 49ers, and Cowboys all winning. The Saints was the only team that lost in my parlay last week, kind scared the Cowboys might ruin it for me tomorrow but I had to go against the Seahawks on the road.

 

Of those 4, I'd say NO has the best chance to lose, Tampa always plays NO tough and I think won there last two in NO. I still wouldn't pick Tampa to win, but may cover the 9!

[JT 137]

I don't think KC is a playoff calibre team. They can't run the ball. They have no pass rush. They play the sit and wait game and hit a receiver down field every so often. Now I'm not sure Miami is the greatest NFL team to ever play the game, but isn't Daniel Thomas, the good running back returning? Miami just played the Giants who were fresh off the bye and Miami broke the spread easily. I get the feeling that KC is holding on tight, and could get pushed off the edge here. One idea that's going through my mind is to try to find a second team and tease Miami with it. Still lots of time...

 

Thomas is returning today.

 

Miami isn't going 0-16, so the challenge is finding where they'll win. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but KC is an average team coming off a short week, on an emotional high. Perfect recipe for a flop.

 

KC is the worst pass rushing team in the NFL (only one with signle digit sacks) and has allowed more pass plays over 20 yards than anybody but New England and one other team...mind has gone blank (it's not Miami). Moore has done a decent job protecting the football and, like most crummy QB, folds under pressure. KC doesn't present that problem.

 

Miami covers and don't be surprised if they don't win. WINNER

 

Like NO to continue their pattern of following up a road flop with a home beatdown over Tampa. WINNER

 

Same reason dal thumps Seattle, despite the solid Seahawks run defense. LOSER

 

St Louis +3.5 over Arizona. Skelton starts for Cards; Feely is much better equipped to lead a team today (though I think Skelton is an NFL QB down the road; didn't like the Kolb deal from the start). LOSER Wish I'd known Bradford was playing prior to this pick. IMO, Feely is better equipped to win with this team right now, especially on the road. Not a better QB long term; just the better game manager for a team that needs just that.

 

Staying away from GB/SD. On the surface, looks like a perfect spot for the Pack to lose, but I get the feeling SD is spiraling downward.

[bjsteel 34]

CLE are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

CLE are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.

CLE are 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games on grass

 

HOU are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC

 

This is the reason I'm going with Houston -10.5, not to mention Cleveland has no RB's and will rely on McCoy to keep up with Houston.

 

And because EVERYONE appears to be on Miami today, I'll take KC minus the points.

 

Atlanta should cover a TD vs Indy.

 

Afternoon games, leaning Cincy, St Louis, Oak and SD...GL.

[ru93 0]

I like Colston to go over 4 1/2 receptions and I like Battle to go over 62 1/2 rushing yds as far as the 1pm games go. GL all!

[Giants Fan 85]

 

 

Miami covers and don't be surprised if they don't win.

 

 

Nice call.

[JT 137]

Nice call.

 

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I'm thinking Ravens moneyline for the Sunday night special. Anybody else?

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Sunday night:

 

 

Ravens ML, 3 units WINNER

[ru93 0]

I'm thinking Ravens moneyline for the Sunday night special. Anybody else?

 

No, the Steelers have been playing well and the Ravens haven't. With the Steelers at home I think they will get revenge on the Ravens tonight in a close game.

 

Boldin over 4 1/2 receptions? Seems like a good play too me.

[ru93 0]

Nailed my moneyline parlay today, just wish I would have added the Falcons on there to beat the Colts. Called Colston and Boldin getting more than 4 1/2 receptions...the only thing I missed was Battle getting over 62 1/2 yds. Didn't think Miami would murder them and KC couldn't wouldn't be able to do nothing but pass in the 4th.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Nailed my moneyline parlay today, just wish I would have added the Falcons on there to beat the Colts. Called Colston and Boldin getting more than 4 1/2 receptions...the only thing I missed was Battle getting over 62 1/2 yds. Didn't think Miami would murder them and KC couldn't wouldn't be able to do nothing but pass in the 4th.

Good job.The only one I missed on my ML parlay was Seattle, lol. For some reason, I thought I was being smart by playing Seattle ML. Ha ha.

[Giants Fan 85]

Got 2 out of my 3 upsets and still missed 5.

 

[rotisserieking 34]

Got 2 out of my 3 upsets and still missed 5.

 

 

F'ing Rams cost me with the only possible scoring potential that could beat the +3.5. Seriously - a blocked FG at end of regulation and then pee-wee style "tackling" on the 100 yd punt return. Just embarassing.

[ru93 0]

Good job.The only one I missed on my ML parlay was Seattle, lol. For some reason, I thought I was being smart by playing Seattle ML. Ha ha.

 

I missed the Ravens winning last night as well, but the only thing I made a bet on was Boldin going over 4 1/2 receptions...still said the Steelers would win though.

 

What you think of taking the Bears on the moneyline tonight? Some great odds and the Bears are coming off a bye...plus before last week the Eagles was not impressing anybody.

[phillybear 364]

NFL Football: 70-51-5; +21.4142 units

CFL: 25-23; -1.6 units

NCAA Football: 116-117-8; -34.7189 units

NCAA Basketball: 0-0

 

Monday

 

NFL for 5 units

Chicago (+8) WINNER

 

NCAA Basketball for 3 units

William & Mary (+8) LOSER

Mississippi St (-17) LOSER

Valparaiso (+14) WINNER

 

Statwise, the Eagles should win and cover this game. And public perception of the last two games for the Eagles indicate that the Dream Team is hitting stride. Philadelphia beat Washington by 7 in a game they forced 4 INTs and seemed to knock out Dallas early in a bizarre game to say the least. I talked to a lot of Eagle fans this weekend. I could not find one that thought the Eagles turned the corner and were back on track, and most expected them to lose tonight. The Eagles stopped turning in over, and won a couple of games, and only actually earned one of those two. Chicago can play a bit of defense, and you can certainly run on the Eagles defense, which Chicago can do with Forte. Mix in some superior special teams, and I think Chicago keeps it close in an ugly game. Chicago is coming off a couple of dominant wins themselves.

 

Edit:

NFL Football: 71-51-5; +26.4142 units

CFL: 25-23; -1.6 units

NCAA Basketball: 1-2; -3.9 units

NCAA Football: 116-117-8; -34.7189 units