Who is a DND for you this year?

[Matt Mueller 146]

I started up this thread in our Zealots league when the forums were down. There were a couple of good responses. I'll either move those over unless the original posters, Ralphster and BeerNuts, want to move them over. I'll give you guys a few days.

 

I've got a couple of guys that I haven't taken in any mock drafts and I likely won't change my stance on.

 

QB: Peyton and to a lesser degree Vick. I don't want to have to second guess my QBs health and take a back up too early. Would probably rather settle for a Romo/Ryan type.

RB: Peterson, Charles-might change my opinion based on preseason.

WR: Probably any of the top 10 ranked guys by ADP depending upon the draft. I just really like the value late.

TE: Some of the middle tier guys after Gronk, Graham, Hernandez. I don't necessarily trust guys like Finley or VD to outproduce the 10-12th ranked options consistently and I'd prob rather build RB/WR depth. ** After re watching some of San Fran's playoff games I am coming around on VD. I might bump him up.

 

 

Are there any players who you likely won't draft or won't draft unless they fall well below their ADP?

[Matt Mueller 146]

I found this interesting about Peyton. Surely the home-away thing effects the outside stats but I think it's relevant non the less.

 

From an ESPN 100 facts article:

 

8. Peyton Manning has played 111 games indoors.

 

9. In those games, he has 230 touchdowns (6.2 TD percent) and 97 interceptions (2.6 INT percent).

 

10. Peyton Manning has played 97 games outdoors.

 

11. In those games, he has 169 touchdowns (4.9 TD percent) and 101 interceptions (2.9 INT percent).

 

12. Assuming he plays all 16 games this season for the Broncos, Peyton Manning will play 15 games outdoors.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8200153/experts-give-100-best-tips-drafting-fantasy-teams-espn-magazine

[BufordT 371]

All Saints are on my DND list this year with the possible exception of Graham.

[Matt Mueller 146]

All Saints are on my DND list this year with the possible exception of Graham.

 

Personally I'd prob stay away Ingram and maybe from Colston-knees- comparatively to the other WRS he's going with ADP wise but I'll take Sproles all day. I like P. Thomas as a depth play too.

[BufordT 371]

Personally I'd prob stay away Ingram and maybe from Colston-knees- comparatively to the other WRS he's going with ADP wise but I'll take Sproles all day. I like P. Thomas as a depth play too.

I just think the franchise is in complete disarray and Sean Payton will be missed more than people think.

 

Can Sproles possibly be as good as he was last year?? Or did he hit his ceiling? Payton was pretty creative with the way he got Sproles involved last year.

[Phurfur 70]

Sanchez, Mark QB NYJ

 

Peterson, Adrian RB MIN

Charles, Jamaal RB KC

McFadden, Darren RB OAK

Wells, Beanie RB ARI

Best, Jahvid RB DET

 

Johnson, Andre WR HOU

Wallace, Mike WR PIT

Bowe, Dwayne WR KC

Britt, Kenny WR TEN

[Matt Mueller 146]

I just think the franchise is in complete disarray and Sean Payton will be missed more than people think.

 

Can Sproles possibly be as good as he was last year?? Or did he hit his ceiling? Payton was pretty creative with the way he got Sproles involved last year.

 

I think that's a good point. One thing to keep in mind too is that as great as Brees is, he has shown more of a propensity to throw ints, than the other elite qbs like Rodgers and Brady.

 

Not that his 2010 wasn't great but his 33-22 in 2010 is a lot less elite than the 46-14 he put up last year.

 

Peyton gone, the defense being bad, and Brees maybe being forced to air it out more could lead to a slight regression. I mean it's Drew freaking Brees, and Jimmy Graham isn't going anywhere, but when you are comparing elite options you have to find some cracks in the wall. This might be it.

[giraldi02 470]

QB: Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

 

RB: MJD, Marshawn Lynch

 

WR: Dwayne Bowe, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson

 

TE: Jermichael Finley

[Matt Mueller 146]

QB: Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan

 

RB: MJD, Marshawn Lynch

 

WR: Dwayne Bowe, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson

 

TE: Jermichael Finley

 

What don't you like about Ryan? Or would you rather take another similarly ranked qb: Eli/Romo/Rivers instead?

 

The rest of your picks I understand.

[The Football Guru 211]

I think that's a good point. One thing to keep in mind too is that as great as Brees is, he has shown more of a propensity to throw ints, than the other elite qbs like Rodgers and Brady.

 

Not that his 2010 wasn't great but his 33-22 in 2010 is a lot less elite than the 46-14 he put up last year.

 

Peyton gone, the defense being bad, and Brees maybe being forced to air it out more could lead to a slight regression. I mean it's Drew freaking Brees, and Jimmy Graham isn't going anywhere, but when you are comparing elite options you have to find some cracks in the wall. This might be it.

Guys, I'd be careful before going too overboard on Brees & Co. If you want to say the loss of Payton will hurt when it comes to drawing up the gameplan Wed-Sat, I'll buy that. But as far as on the field, it sure didn't show last year.

 

From my column: http://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/12_pma_south.html

 

"For those of you worried about the effect that losing HC Sean Payton for the year due to suspension will have on this offense, consider that OC Pete Carmichael directed an offensive onslaught that averaged 476.1 yards and 37 points over the final 10 games of the regular season (slight increases over the 452.1 yards and 29.5 points the team averaged in the six games before Payton’s sideline knee injury)."

 

Going back to 2010, Brees was dealing with a knee injury (torn MCL) and didn't have much of a running game to work with as Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas both had trouble staying healthy. With that said, I don't doubt for a second that Brees probably isn't going to top last season simply b/c he had a career year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Guys, I'd be careful before going too overboard on Brees & Co. If you want to say the loss of Payton will hurt when it comes to drawing up the gameplan Wed-Sat, I'll buy that. But as far as on the field, it sure didn't show last year.

 

From my column: http://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/12_pma_south.html

 

"For those of you worried about the effect that losing HC Sean Payton for the year due to suspension will have on this offense, consider that OC Pete Carmichael directed an offensive onslaught that averaged 476.1 yards and 37 points over the final 10 games of the regular season (slight increases over the 452.1 yards and 29.5 points the team averaged in the six games before Payton’s sideline knee injury)."

 

Going back to 2010, Brees was dealing with a knee injury (torn MCL) and didn't have much of a running game to work with as Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas both had trouble staying healthy. With that said, I don't doubt for a second that Brees probably isn't going to top last season simply b/c he had a career year.

 

Great points Guru! I think a lot of people forget, me included, that Payton was limited and often not on the sideline in 2011.

[giraldi02 470]

What don't you like about Ryan? Or would you rather take another similarly ranked qb: Eli/Romo/Rivers instead?

 

 

I would rather have any of the other three. Eli Manning had the third most passing attempts in the league last season if I'm not mistaken. Romo obviously is on a team that slings the ball with the best of them.

 

Phillip Rivers to me is arguably the best valued quarterback in fantasy this season. Rivers threw for over 4,600 yards (the 2nd most in his career), 27 touchdowns (4th most in his career) and even ran for a touchdown (only the 3rd time he’s ever done that). Granted the interceptions were a problem, as he had 20, but in most fantasy leagues an interception only docks you a single point or two at most. Rivers was still a top 10 quarterback in most fantasy formats last season and he’s being drafted AFTER Peyton Manning. Oh…and about that Vincent Jackson guy being gone? Two seasons ago when Jackson had his extended holdout, McNeil had his slight holdout, and they didn't have Tomlinson for the first year, Rivers had a career year. I'm not worried at all. If the offensive skill positions stay healthy, Rivers will be a top 5 quarterback

[IGotWorms 3,302]

I just think the franchise is in complete disarray and Sean Payton will be missed more than people think.

 

Can Sproles possibly be as good as he was last year?? Or did he hit his ceiling? Payton was pretty creative with the way he got Sproles involved last year.

 

I think Sproles definitely hit his ceiling last year. I'm fairly certain he will be overdrafted this year, especially in non-PPR leagues, so I'm staying far away.

 

Let me put it to you this way: if you draft Sproles at his current ADP, he has to do at least as well as he did last year for it to even be a DECENT value pick. I don't like those odds.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I think Sproles definitely hit his ceiling last year. I'm fairly certain he will be overdrafted this year, especially in non-PPR leagues, so I'm staying far away.

 

Let me put it to you this way: if you draft Sproles at his current ADP, he has to do at least as well as he did last year for it to even be a DECENT value pick. I don't like those odds.

 

I feel like we need a 'hit the ceiling' emoticon. You know a little dude jumping up and cracking his head against it.

[steelers2101 7]

Nobody has mentioned Michael Turner? Shocking.

[Patmos 2]

RE: Sproles, people are definitely NOT taking into account the impact of a healthy Ingram, who is targeted for 200 touches this year.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Nobody has mentioned Michael Turner? Shocking.

It all depends on where he goes for me. In a dynasty draft I acquired him in the eighth round. I thought that was good value.

[BufordT 371]

Guys, I'd be careful before going too overboard on Brees & Co. If you want to say the loss of Payton will hurt when it comes to drawing up the gameplan Wed-Sat, I'll buy that. But as far as on the field, it sure didn't show last year.

 

From my column: http://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/12_pma_south.html

 

"For those of you worried about the effect that losing HC Sean Payton for the year due to suspension will have on this offense, consider that OC Pete Carmichael directed an offensive onslaught that averaged 476.1 yards and 37 points over the final 10 games of the regular season (slight increases over the 452.1 yards and 29.5 points the team averaged in the six games before Payton’s sideline knee injury)."

 

Going back to 2010, Brees was dealing with a knee injury (torn MCL) and didn't have much of a running game to work with as Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas both had trouble staying healthy. With that said, I don't doubt for a second that Brees probably isn't going to top last season simply b/c he had a career year.

I would tend to agree with that if it was only Sean Payton. But from top to bottom the entire Saint franchise took a major hit this offseason. It'll be impressive if they match last year's output. We shall see. I gotta be right about something one of these years.

[BufordT 371]

What don't you like about Ryan? Or would you rather take another similarly ranked qb: Eli/Romo/Rivers instead?

 

The rest of your picks I understand.

I'm surprised the Matt Ryan supporters aren't concerned with Dirk Koetter being the new OC. You know, the guy that was at the helm of the stout Jax Jaguar offense last year.

[Pogs23 6]

I'm surprised the Matt Ryan supporters aren't concerned with Dirk Koetter being the new OC. You know, the guy that was at the helm of the stout Jax Jaguar offense last year.

 

I think he has a little more talent to work with in Atlanta.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I think he has a little more talent to work with in Atlanta.

He is the nineth qb off the board usually. I don't see him finishing that low.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Nobody has mentioned Michael Turner? Shocking.

 

Yeah. Turner and Gore are both pretty much DND for me...especially since I only play in at least .4 PPR leagues.

 

Sjax I'm a bit higher on with Fisher and the team healthier, even if Pead steals some carries.

[montana 89]

Sanchez, DMC, Gore, AJ (both), Redskins RBs, Colts RBs, Fins RB, AP, Fred Lane.

[ralphster 274]

From the zealots board:

 

QB: Peyton before round 8. Vick before round 7. Will not draft NYJ/MIA/MIN/ARZ/SEA QB at all. Never been a big fan of taking a QB early when top performers at more consistent positions are available.

 

RB: MJD before round 4. Turner before round 6. Gore before round 5. Will not draft R Bush/anyone from NE/Felix effing Jones or Chris effing Johnson.

 

WR: S Holmes before round 10. Otherwise pretty open save I'm staying away from SEA/MIA/SF/JAX WRs this year.

 

TE: No one really save Clark & Winslow. There's value to be had all over the TE spectrum. After the G's I see about 15 TEs that could finish in the top ten.

[RicemanX 20]

Wow, only one mention of Chris Johnson? really?

 

All the injury risks are big until they drop low enough. I'll take a chance on AP, Andre, Charles, Peyton...

[worm 34]

So far I'd say Santonio Holmes, Boldin. I want to say Jamaal Charles but I have a feeling I will be tempted come draft day.

[wicked joe 0]

RB: Peterson, Charles-might change my opinion based on preseason.

 

I was thinking the same thing. Both made the Bust list here: Peterson and Charles are Busts.

 

I wouldn't go near those guys. I also won't draft:

• 
   
  
• Eli Manning - Team wants to run.
  
• Ben Roethlisberger - Hurt, team wants to run, new OC, and top threat is unhappy.
  
• Andy Dalton - Bad team in tough division. Weak arm.
  
• Joe Flacco - Team wants to run.
  
• Matt Forte - Not enough TDs. Bush will punch it in for Chicago. I love Bush though. Who doesn't love Bush?
  
• Maurice Jones-Drew - Not happy. In late if at all. CJ2K v2.0.
  
• Reggie Bush - Show me you can do it again. Team is bad.
  
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Team is bad.
  
• Beanie Wells - He is injured.
  
• Jahvid Best - He is one hit from Jello.
  
• Mikel Leshoure - He is injured.
  

[waxg 3]

 

Are there any players who you likely won't draft or won't draft unless they fall well below their ADP?

 

I just have to say that when I make a DO NOT DRAFT list now I stick to it 100%. Too often in past years I have pulled the trigger on guys who fell far below their ADP because it seemed like a no brainer. But too often these guy ended up being duds, which is why they dropped in the first place. My point is, when you get into the later rounds, it is always better to take a chance on some unknown with upside than to grab the guy who used to be good but now is too old and on his way to being replaced.

 

This year I think Driver and Reggie Wayne fit that bill and probably Chad Johnson. Not interested.

Also I am going to avoid the Seahawks at all costs and most Colts

[CedarGrovePack 2]

I just have to say that when I make a DO NOT DRAFT list now I stick to it 100%. Too often in past years I have pulled the trigger on guys who fell far below their ADP because it seemed like a no brainer. But too often these guy ended up being duds, which is why they dropped in the first place. My point is, when you get into the later rounds, it is always better to take a chance on some unknown with upside than to grab the guy who used to be good but now is too old and on his way to being replaced.

 

This year I think Driver and Reggie Wayne fit that bill and probably Chad Johnson. Not interested.

Also I am going to avoid the Seahawks at all costs and most Colts

 

 

Law Firm

Roddy W

Shone Green

[msudavedawg 5]

J-E-T-S!!! JETS! JETS! JETS!

[giraldi02 470]

Law Firm

Roddy W

Shone Green

 

What makes Roddy White a DND? Are you playing in a one team league?

[IGotWorms 3,302]

Michael Turner

Frank Gore

Marshawn Lynch

Shonn Greene

Dez Bryant

 

I have Adrian Peterson ranked so low (#17 RB) that he's essentially a DND for me.

[nownow 0]

If I had the #1 pick, Arian Foster because of his vegan diet. RBs take such a punishment and i don't think his body will last on this diet.

 

Sproles: overvalued

Wells: no trust at all in him staying healthy

Matthews: i'm not buying he'll be a top 10 player.

MJD: only 2 years older than Matthews but with so many more miles on him.

 

Colston: knees issues

DJAX: just got paid...

Garcon: Hankerson will be the #1

[DrG 94]

Clinton Portis

Carolina RBS

Beanie Wells

Laurent Robinson

LG Blount

Tampa WR

P Manning

Earl Campbell

Miami Wr

[Gepetto 979]

Ryan Mathews

[waxg 3]

Ryan Mathews

 

why?

[football is life 0]

I was thinking the same thing. Both made the Bust list here: Peterson and Charles are Busts.

 

I wouldn't go near those guys. I also won't draft:

• 
   
  
• Eli Manning - Team wants to run.
  
• Ben Roethlisberger - Hurt, team wants to run, new OC, and top threat is unhappy.
  
• Andy Dalton - Bad team in tough division. Weak arm.
  
• Joe Flacco - Team wants to run.
  
• Matt Forte - Not enough TDs. Bush will punch it in for Chicago. I love Bush though. Who doesn't love Bush?
  
• Maurice Jones-Drew - Not happy. In late if at all. CJ2K v2.0.
  
• Reggie Bush - Show me you can do it again. Team is bad.
  
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Team is bad.
  
• Beanie Wells - He is injured.
  
• Jahvid Best - He is one hit from Jello.
  
• Mikel Leshoure - He is injured.
  

 

That's a good list, but I am not quite ready to write off Green-Ellis so quickly. LOL on the comment on Best BTW.

[Gepetto 979]

why?

 

He's going as high as 3rd overall. He's fragile. No one knew who Tolbert was until he had Mathews to compete with. Some other RBs will be forced to play when Mathews gets hurt multiple times this year. I also drafted him when he was a rookie and don't trust him.

[IGotWorms 3,302]

I was thinking the same thing. Both made the Bust list here: Peterson and Charles are Busts.

 

I wouldn't go near those guys.

 

Agreed on Peterson, but I'm not so sure about Charles.

 

This article indicates that the ACL injury may not be a big deal for Charles. His ACL tear happened early enough last year and he's still young enough that he may be 100% this year.

 

I am a little concerned about Peyton Hillis, but Charles did well when Thomas Jones was there getting more carries.

 

I'm not high on Charles, but I won't ignore him if he slips in the draft.

[CedarGrovePack 2]

What makes Roddy White a DND? Are you playing in a one team league?

 

not drafting anywhere near his ADP