Looking Ahead to FF Redrafts: 2013 (12/27/12)

[Fumbleweed 426]

This is something I like to post on site every mid to late December and then update it each week for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2013 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices.

 

Round One:

 

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Arian Foster

3. Calvin Johnson

4. Marshawn Lynch

5. Ray Rice

6. Drew Brees

7. Doug Martin

8. Aaron Rodgers

9. LeSean McCoy

10. Jamaal Charles

11. Tom Brady

12. Trent Richardson

 

Round Two:

 

13. Cam Newton

14. Alfred Morris

15. Robert Griffin III

16. Dez Bryant

17. Brandon Marshall

18. A.J. Green

19. Maurice Jones-Drew

20. Matt Ryan

21. Julio Jones

22. Matt Forte

23. Rob Gronkowski

24. DeMaryius Thomas

 

Round Three:

 

25. Peyton Manning

26. Vincent Jackson

27. C.J. Spiller

28. Tony Romo

29. Roddy White

30. Stevan Ridley

31. Chris Johnson

32. DeMarco Murray

33. Andre Johnson

34. Jimmy Graham

35. Randall Cobb

36. Wes Welker

 

Round Four:

 

37. Steven Jackson

38. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

39. Larry Fitzgerald

40. Andrew Luck

41. Darren McFadden

42. Matthew Stafford

43. Eric Decker

44. Ryan Mathews

45. Marques Colston

46. Reggie Wayne

47. Jonathan Dwyer

48. Victor Cruz

 

Initial thoughts?

[Stewburtx8 67]

I'd probably have Spiller a lot higher. I like him over Forte, MJD, Morris, and maybe Richardson. So I guess that means I'd put him in the early 2nd round or maybe even the late 1st.

[BufordT 371]

Agree with Spiller, I think he should be a ranked somewhere around the 12th-16th pick.

 

The only other thing I noticed is 6 QB's going in the first 20 picks. I can see a lot of people waiting on QB's next year.

 

Good list.

[bugzy 1]

I feel like the upside on AJ Green is really high, he might be the #2 WR on a lot of lists.

 

And I don't think people will be taking TEs is round 2 this time around, that was a one year fluke. Graham will slip even more.

[Fumbleweed 426]

QB is deep, but the bottom drops out after the top 8-10.

 

My only concern on Spiller is that Fred Jackson will have a role still if he is retained in Buffalo.

 

Disagree on TEs. Gronkowski was headed for another monster season prior to injury and I don't think he'll make it out of Round Two.

 

Good thoughts.

[Portis26 0]

Spiller is a low 1st, high 2nd round for me

Garçon may also be a 3rd round WR IMO

[FlaHawker 24]

Al Morris too high.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

27. C.J. Spiller

39. Larry Fitzgerald

40. Andrew Luck

48. Victor Cruz

 

48+ Jordy Nelson

 

Initial thoughts?

 

Good list Fumbleweed.

 

A few stood out to me as potential value picks.

 

-Luck in his second year could be a top 5 QB imo.

-If Fitz gets a new QB he probably moves up the charts.

-Spiller in the 3rd round would make me happy, even if he's sharing carries.

-Cruz and Nelson have lost shine in 2012, I will probably really like them in 2013.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Garçon may also be a 3rd round WR IMO

 

Good call.

[Vikings4ever 496]

I think Charles's position depends on if the Chiefs bring in a semi-competent coach.

[idiotec 31]

Cam at 13?

5 QB's in the first 15?

Spiller 3rd round?

 

My initial thoughts after a quick look.

[BufordT 371]

Percy Harvin probably should be in there.

 

Knowshon Moreno?? depending on what the Denver backfield looks like.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Cam at 13?

5 QB's in the first 15?

Spiller 3rd round?

 

My initial thoughts after a quick look.

 

Newton's stats were off the charts during the second half of the season. I don't know what was wrong with him initially this year, but he got it figured out.

 

The scoring system I use is a bit more QB-friendly than some I will admit, but getting a top tier signal caller is still a pretty big deal in a non-PPR league. In a PPR format, the value of QBs falls quite a bit.

[RSersen 0]

I think Charles's position depends on if the Chiefs bring in a semi-competent coach.

 

Whoever they bring in, people will swear it will be different. Just like after Haley was fired, we all thought it'd be different under Romeo.

 

More important to watch what the new coach does at RB. Hillis is a FA, and at this point I'd say he likely won't be brought back. That leaves Charles, Shaun Draughn, and Cyrus Gray in the backfield. Will they go out and sign another veteran between-the-tackles guy, like Jones or Hillis? (Brandon Jacobs comes immediately to mind). Do they draft a RB of that style within the first couple rounds?

 

If they leave Charles and Draughn as is, and maybe add a draft pick, then I'll go all in on Charles. That would tell me that he'll be the bellcow, and Draughn would play a similar role to Bernard Pierce in Baltimore - a warm body that can come in every few series and spell JC.

 

If they go out and sign a guy like Jacobs, it tells me that they're not comfortable with Charles alone. And I won't touch him. I've been on the bandwagon since day 1, but I've seen this story play out too many times now, I've seen him lose too many carries to over the hill "ground and pounders", and I don't have the patience to do it again.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I love Lynch but Don't see owners drafting him ahead of Ray Rice. I'd be shocked if, by the time drafts roll around, McCoy is going after Lynch either.

[jerryskids 5,198]

Percy Harvin probably should be in there.

 

Knowshon Moreno?? depending on what the Denver backfield looks like.

 

Two guys I was thinking of as well. Harvin is definitely in the 3rd round range at least. Moreno I can understand not being on the list yet, but may move up pending Denver's plans going into the season.

 

Overall good list, although I agree with others that QBs are higher than I would have them.

[TwentyFourSeven 23]

Newton's stats were off the charts during the second half of the season. I don't know what was wrong with him initially this year, but he got it figured out.

 

The scoring system I use is a bit more QB-friendly than some I will admit, but getting a top tier signal caller is still a pretty big deal in a non-PPR league. In a PPR format, the value of QBs falls quite a bit.

 

I know we're thinking if things stay the same for the teams, or minimal changes, but what if Carolina actually gets Chip Kelly? If he brings that offense he had @ Oregon, Cam's numbers could be incredible.

[We Tigers 71]

Always enjoy this list. Not sure about Cobb in the third--Jordy was pretty unstoppable when healthy this season, and might end up the favored GB WR going into next year. Might be a Demaryius/Decker situation--everybody wins--if Jennings does end up somewhere else.

 

Steven Jackson's value is going to depend almost entirely in where he ends up. I could see him being anywhere from a 3rd to 7th depending on what happens.

[Lacoop 0]

Percy should definitely be in there, if not third round, then definitely before Fitz and Decker.

I don't think Dwyer is a 4th rounder.

[crackills 19]

Forte should be lower... the guy doesn't even produce well in the ppr leagues.

[RSersen 0]

Forte should be lower... the guy doesn't even produce well in the ppr leagues.

 

Agreed. I took him this year figuring he was a safe, solid pick. Was disappointed. Highest point output in my standard scoring league was 20 points, and he had 6 weeks (almost half the fantasy season) of < 10 points (7 if you count the week he missed due to injury). Last season wasn't much better, he broke 20 points 3 times, and had 4 weeks of single digit output.

 

His highs aren't that high and his lows are too low. Add in the lack of TDs due to Bush, and his injury history, and it's no bueno. This list has him as the 11th RB off the board, or a low end RB1. I'd say he's RB2 material right now.

 

I would move Spiller up to where Forte is now (#22), and drop Forte down to where Johnson and Murray are (#31-32). Right now I'd probably draft any of those three backs (and certainly Spiller) before Forte.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,579]

Percy should definitely be in there, if not third round, then definitely before Fitz and Decker.

I don't think Dwyer is a 4th rounder.

 

Dwyer shouldnt be in the top 10 rounds

 

As for the guy who mentioned Cam being paired with Chip Kelly, if that happens I am taking Cam no 1 overall

[Evil Genius 0]

Front page news.

[Raider 84 29]

Harvin has to be top 40 without a doubt.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Round One:

 

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Arian Foster

3. Calvin Johnson

4. Marshawn Lynch

5. Ray Rice

6. Drew Brees

7. Doug Martin

8. Aaron Rodgers

9. LeSean McCoy

10. Jamaal Charles

11. Tom Brady

12. Trent Richardson

 

 

Just talking about this stuff for fun right now because it could all change of course.

 

Wondering if Andy Reid to KC affects Charles at all? Could he move up a notch or 2?

 

I'm in a 10 team league where we can keep 1 guy for 3 years before needing to throw him back. My guy is A Peterson and I'm picking 5th overall. The league scoring offers big bonuses for long TD's so pairing Peterson with Charles sounds like a match made in heaven for my league, unless people think Charles will be affected negatively by Reid coming in.

 

Thoughts about Jamaal Charles?

[Evil Genius 0]

Thoughts about Jamaal Charles?

 

Here's my take...

 

For one thing, Charles is a year farther from the knee thing. He might be used less conservatively for that reason alone.

 

Two, I think Hillis is done in KC. That only helps, barring them getting yet ANOTHER guy to share the load.

 

Three, I think Reid has Charles catch a few more balls...but maybe not any more carries, depending on what they do for QB. I think this is your primary issue. The system and the QB therein will determine how many Rush Attempts he gets.

 

There are not many QBs on the imagination radar that could really undermine Charles' production, rookie, Free Agent or incumbent.

 

All in all, I think the odds are very good that he puts up similar numbers or better than this year. I just hope he can spread the love over a few more games, insteading of being all Jeckle and Hyde, like he was in 2012.

 

Considering that mock drafts are starting to see him in the 1st round (up from 2nd round this year past), I think others are thinking similarly.