Breaking out of fantasy mediocrity

[IGotWorms 4,058]

How does one do it?

I used to win championships in the early 00s.

But for the past six years or so my teams are on quite a streak of being good enough to squeek into the playoffs but not good enough to take the title. Every damn year I finish a game or two above .500 and then get knocked out before the championship game. And it's true across all formats-- ppr, standard scoring, keeper leagues, etc.

Now part of it is luck, for sure. Some ill timed injuries. My studs have a down week and his blow up, etc.

But I'm also thinking there must be something wrong with my in-season management. Or perhaps I am too conservative in the draft. This last year I was determined to either be awesome or suck ass, so I (think) I took more risks. But nope, still respectable-but-not-great at the end of the day.

Now I know part if this is that it's so much harder to find late-round gems or strike it rich on the waiver wire. There's just so much info out there now that even the casual FF player can easily locate.

But what's the answer? How do you gain an edge these days? Have others struggled with this issue of consistent mediocrity and found a way out?

I don't mean to make this all about me. Perhaps this could be a general thread about how to successfully go against the grain or how to nail in-season management.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

Sometimes, there is nothing you can do about lady luck. In one of my leagues, I won the title 4 straight years (2004-2008 i think) and in another league I lost 3 straight title games.

 

When i started my FF addiction hobby, i did a little research each year but I relied more on my normal knowledge of the sport and players and my gut. There were not so many FF outlets on the internet. Some friends in my league still used magazines. Knowing about a place like this and a few others put me in contention every season without killing myself.

 

Then as the years went on, I started doing more and more research. Putting too much time into ranking players and figuring out who I had to have and in what round. Strategies, etc etc... more and more sites had up to the minute fantasy info and everyone had access to it. The extra "work" did not pay off. I was fielding some of my worst teams, and my in season management was terrible. I let me overthinking carry over into the season. Who to start? who to add off waivers?

 

The last few years i've done a LOT less prep work, relied more on my gut and knowledge and i definitely don't sweat lineup decisions. I've had much more success doing this.

 

I wouldn't consider losing title games to be mediocrity. Being on the cusp of the playoffs but never making it or maybe always losing in the first round...... but if you're making title games, you've been doing something right

[IGotWorms 4,058]

I don't make title games. I always lose the round or two before

 

You may be on to something about overthinking things. I rarely sweat lineup decisions but perhaps I should put more emphasis on my gut in draft rankings and the waiver wire.

[stonewall 647]

WhiteWonder is barking up the right tree. I have always said (and usually get lambasted) : Get familiar with players, team dynamics, coaches philosophies, and general player rankings/ADP's.......and then rely on your football knowledge and draft your gut......guru's and prognosticators not withstanding. Never fear ridicule. If you are convinced that certain players are poised to go off, then draft them, even if you have to reach. I call it reaching for the Championship. Yes, you will miss a few.....but the hits are worth it, because they were your choices.

 

In-season: Don't quit on a commodity player after a few poor games. This will burn you more often than not. Have a couple of slots on your bench all season long that are expendable. Keep claiming/waiving prospects until you get one or two that are fantasy darlings to go along with your studs. These are the guys that win FF championships every year. Send out a lot of trade offers that clearly favor your team (without being ridiculous or prone to veto), especially early on to teams that are struggling and getting desperate. Also, play your studs regardless of matchup....unless you have a stud to spare. If nothing else, this will help maintain your sanity.....because it is much more palatable to watch a hit and miss player blow up on your bench than a proven stud who you paid dearly for as a point of stability on your team, but were scared to play.

 

Finally (and this is hard for me too), learn to be satisfied with a playoff berth, even if you don't win it all. In competitive leagues, perennial playoff appearances are not a matter of luck. Winning the championship after reaching the playoffs does require more luck......as things must go perfectly for 2-3 consecutive weeks, which is difficult at best.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Not exactly an answer to this but I'm gonna focus on a couple loose philosophies next year.

 

During the draft 'get your guys' and forget a little bit about adp-value. Better to reach a round for someone you love then watch him blow up elsewhere.

 

When making weekly lineup decisions try to set your lineup first without looking at rankings....and then if making deviations or deciding between 2 players ask yourself who you would be more happy losing with. Go with your gut on these close calls and make decisions you can live with.

 

Don't chase TE points. Aside from the elite guys blowing up every other week is what they do. Don't start last weeks points.

[FeelingMN 273]

Odds are that if you end up a mediocre team, you were probably a mediocre team after 5-6 weeks too. Maybe look to make a trade around that time to shake things up.

 

Personally, I agree with what others have said.....there tends to be paralysis by analysis in FF. I think it's possible to know too much sometimes, and because of that you overthink things and don't go with your gut.

 

At the end of the day though, you're closer to winning it all than not if you're consistently in the playoffs. So don't opt for some huge philosophical change in your thinking. A tweak here or there and you'll be vying for a

[jerryskids 6,790]

A lot of it has been mentioned but: do your prep, know who you like, and trust your gut when you draft. Don't give up too early on guys you picked early; you did it for a reason. Similarly, don't fall in love with guys you drafted late -- they went late for a reason, so take a chance on a WW darling.

 

And of course, follow The Soilost's advice.

[weepaws 3,191]

i agree with many of the post its all about your gut feeling and don't worry about what it looks like on paper its the pay off that counts ... 25 years ago when i started playing ff there was nothing to really llok at then the more info i got the more i got away from what i like to do .. look at stats and then my gut and then pull the lever . and i like early in a season to make a move or three that just might shake things up and wow if they work = hero ...thats what makes it fun . just make it fun again and i bet it will be ...lord be with you intill we meet again

[Flaximus 2]

Looking at it a little differently, maybe you are slightly better but the mediocre teams in your leagues have just gotten better based on the reason you mentioned previously? With all the information readily available they have closed the gap because you had less room for improvement.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I also want to state that I consider making the playoffs a successful season. Too many things out of your control need to come together to go all the way.

 

Just getting to the dance consistently is my only goal.

[rumbleready00 3]

Decent advice so far, but nothing earth shattering. The main point is the dynamics have changed and the gap has been closed because of all the information available. How do we get an edge - I say adapt your leagues scoring system so it doesn't follow the norm to most player rankings. At least half or many of the owners do not pay attention to the details of the scoring systems or format - or they do not have the time, patience or knowledge to adjust to each leagues scoring formula.

 

Obviously there are changes each year with the tiers of players, but here is a case in point. Years ago I joined a league that started only 1 rb and 1 wr, with 2 flex positions (WR/RB). It was a PPR league, which devalued the RB -and because you are only required to start one running back. My strategy was to load up on receivers early and wait on TE/QB and get one decent running back and always start three receivers in my lineup. Again, obviously you wouldn't do it this year if you had a top five pick, maybe picking Calvin. Many owners have caught on to my strategy and it doesn't work as well because many are trying to do what I was doing. So now I want to change the format/scoring system to get an edge.

 

Months ago, I brought the idea on this board of requiring each team start a rookie (qb,rb,wr,te,k) and got laughed off the board. My strategy would have been to get a rookie kicker because kickers are a crapshoot while everyone else reached for a rookie.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,258]

I went to the championship game once at 5-8. Got in due to divisional standing and won two playoff games after having one of the lower point totals in the league. I would have won that year if i had started michael crabtree instead of vincent jackson.

 

But believe me when i say i can completely understand where youre coming from. In my big money league i believe this will be my 8th or 9th year, have made the playoffs twice and lost in the first round both times. For some reason it seems i cannot draft a reliable team in that league. The biggest part of my ineffectiveness are my rbs. It dosnt matter when i pick up a rb they never turn out save for one year i made the playoffs.

 

Part of it imo is i get flustered at the draft slot choosing day since the last three years i have picked second to last, last, last. Now as an addict i should be able to overcome what is more a mental hurdle than anything, but it just seems i never get a high enough draft pick to grab a reliable rb to start the draft.

 

I fully expect to have my name come out of that envelope first again this august.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Looking at it a little differently, maybe you are slightly better but the mediocre teams in your leagues have just gotten better based on the reason you mentioned previously? With all the information readily available they have closed the gap because you had less room for improvement.

I think that is absolutely the case. The question is what to do with it.

 

Some solid advice in this thread. Nobody has shared something earth-shattering but I supppse that if you had a foolproof secret to success you'd probably hold on to it.

[Hawkfin 32]

I'm in a similar situation. In my big money league I've made the playoff's 4outof5 straight times only to come up empty, championship loss, or the round before. I did win it 6 years ago, and before that a couple more playoff loses.

 

Now in my cheaper local keeper league, I've won it like 6 times and have a great % per playoff's. I won it 3 straight years, then after a few losses I've won it 2 out of the last 3 years.

 

Like others have said, people have caught up from years past. I think it's the quality of players per league for sure. While my local league is good, and they are catching up to me, I still own them and I still see drafting mistakes. This allows ME to capitilize on it and get better values. However, the big money league, everybody is real good and they dont reach or make drafting mistakes. They also draft to boom or bust so they more explosive, while others are just really solid drafters with lots of depth. The combo makes for a tricky league to win.

 

Also, something that adds to it IMO is that the NFL is really deep and diverse now days. Meaning, it's like playing in a 8 man league. Everybody can get production from anywhere. And NFL is score crazy too so lots of points out there to deal with.

The old days it just didn't work that way I don't think. It was more about the certain players you had, and the scoring (OR CATCHUP SCORING) was not so out of control.

 

So what to do? I'm still trying to figure that one out myself. I've tried to draft for playoff's, which seemed to work well until I got injury or in the one year I failed to make the playoffs, but was the hottest team at the end. I've tried to draft for BOOM players. Tried the different strategy appoach. I do use my gut and that works well. But, still, those things come up short in my big league. Usually, I get screwed by injury at the end (Like Gronk) so my luck has faded. Mostly, I just don't have the "hot" guy's at the end. Sometimes I can spot a big mistake I made during the draft also. Limiting that always helps.

But really, it just comes down to the competition level vs your own ability and some luck.

 

But overall, making the playoff's really is MY goal. Then hope for a little luck. One think I do notice is I'm not getting the "bye week". I'm usually 3-5 seed. My other league, I'm usually getting the bye. So this might be the real key.

 

If your making the playoff's I wouldn't worry about it too much. F.F. bowls I think will eventually come. Do what u do!

[Hawkfin 32]

Oh also, The draft spot is important to winning the championship of course too, that somebody also said earlier.... I've been screwed year after year in that big league. I've NEVER had above 4 there. The year I picked 4th, I won it.

And usually I'm 8th pick or later. A lot of 11's.

In fact, this trend has me concered over the league even. Hard to be that unlucky with draft slots.

Probably has something to do with the fact I keep making playoff's though. Even though it's supposed to be random.

[madd futher mucker 36]

The main point is the dynamics have changed and the gap has been closed because of all the information available. How do we get an edge - I say adapt your leagues scoring system so it doesn't follow the norm to most player rankings. At least half or many of the owners do not pay attention to the details of the scoring systems or format - or they do not have the time, patience or knowledge to adjust to each leagues scoring formula.

 

In addition to everything rumpleready00 said, and I very much concur that the information gap has closed now that even noobies have the same easy access to it, I think what is important is how we process that information.

We have to look deeper, analyze and take advantage of 'ripple effects' of a primary event before your league competition does. Example: Crabtree goes town with the achilles tear. That means you immediately bump Vernon Davis, Boldin, Gore and even James. If you are in a dynasty league, that is the time to get aggressive to acquire these guys. Someone is going to take those touches. Another: McGahee gets cut - you have to elevate L Ball and even Hillman before your competition does.

The same thing applies to re-draft leagues. When an event happens immediately before or anytime after your draft, you have to act on the secondary consequences of the event before the other owners do.

When we all have access to the same info, it is the owner who correctly interprets the ripple effect and acts quickly to take advantage who comes out ahead.

[The Moz 69]

Same thing happened to me -- it's called growing out of it to a point. I used to be really into it -- having ranking lists - you name it. Now i basically just read up a little and draft -- at least for me as I passed over 35 YO my interest faded off a lot.

[Little Rusty 18]

How does one do it?

 

 

Choose great players and then play them

 

I'm nobody to talk.....I tend to choose hisk / high reward players and then yank them out or drop them if they fall short of my expectaions.

[jerryskids 6,790]

It's been discussed before, but FF is kinda like poker. Skill helps to do better on average but at the end of the day you still need some luck. That being said, since information is ubiquitous, to me the key is picking the right guy in the tiers. Say you have the 5th pick; there are about 5 RBs (or Calvin) you could take there. Picking the right one makes the difference.

[waxg 3]

been playing since 1997, have never won a single championship. I've had some great teams, and some great streaks. I've lost 2 seasons with 1 single lineup move.

 

I don't have the answers obviously, but I think the hardest thing to do is play the waiver wire a week ahead of everybody else. Get the guy that nobody is looking at. Of course easier said than done, but every year I see someone pick someone up and then blow up 2 weeks later. For me that is the key.

[DrG 103]

There's certainly good advice in this thread by posters who I respect and pay attention to.

 

The question not asked in my mind is 'why' are your teams fading out? Injuries, one position or draft slot not measuring up? Some go crazy on running backs and neglect other positions. Try to identify the specifics not going right and see if there are any questionable patterns you can correct. Analyze a couple past drafts to see if there were guys you picked that underperformed vs. other similarly-rated players that you passed on.

Asking these types of questions will be another way you separate yourself from the rookies/casual observer.

 

I find FF a learning process - every year I do some things better and make new mistakes. If you get a 'gut' feeling on a player, stick with it. It may/may not pan out, but you also want to feel you made the right call.

 

An example of a decision right and wrong: My first 2 picks last year were Megatron and J Graham - happy to get 2 'Tier 1' guys, right? But going WR WR in a league where RBS fly off the board was suspect. To compensate, I overweighted at the 'late round' RB slot at the expense of WR depth. I still came in 3rd in this league, but ... I have tried to figure out what mistakes might have cost me the title and went back and looked at how I had graded the players at these first two positions and the decision-making was okay. The bigger mistake was not adding WR depth at the expense of some of RBS on my bench who weren't doing anything.

 

Good luck.

[Masterminds 5]

If you were doing well when the league just started and now you aren't doing as well, I'd say it has more to do with other managers becoming better and learning the strategies you already knew. The playing field has been leveled and it just requires more luck to win. Not much more you can really do in that situation.

[Pecos Rattlers 5]

Secondary effects of very recent events is a good point. Likely ADP has not caught up with the event yet & casual FF'rs may know that player X is out for the year, but not have accounted for the more subtle changes due to it.

 

Here's a thread from last offseason that has some good suggestions: http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=402981

 

 

I think the web keeps people from making absolutely horrible decisions (like the guy who lost his starting job two weeks ago) but it doesn't help with everything. Remember, these are the people who just want an answer without doing any analysis of their own.

Rank by your league's stats. Likely the casual player is using a generic top 20 list rather than customizing the stats to your league's settings. You can get a jump on these people by entering your league's settings on a site like this one & then ranking players based on last year's fantasy points and this year's projections. Not exactly rocket science, but it's something that the casual fan probably doesn't do.

Do Sleeper research. I don't post a ton here, but just reading the boards I am usually clued into 1-3 decent sleepers that aren't on generic top 20 lists at espn.com or such sites. I wouldn't recommend just blinding taking any suggestions: rather use it as a starting point for your own research.

Take risk based on your research. Casual players will often follow a pretty simple formula every time & aren't as likely to take risks that could have big payoffs. If you are supremely confident that say ... Ronnie Hillman is the next big thing (not saying I do), then take a risk based on it. Don't draft RB round 1, 2 & 3 only to pick him up later as a sleeper. Count on him as one of your starting RBs and get value at other positions early, so that if you're right, you'll have a championship level team.

Analyze your league's draft history. It's amazing how many players will do the same thing every year. There's a guy in one of my leagues who has picked RB, RB, RB 10 years straight (not saying it's bad necessarily) and another guy who always picks a top QB in rounds 1-2. There are less obvious trends too, like who is more likely to follow position runs: that will likely require some actual statistical analysis or something. It might be worth knowing though.. I guarantee that the casual players won't ever look at this data either.

Do an auction draft. It's a lot rougher on casual players who just have a cheat sheet, because (among other things) the amount of money spent early will change how much you spend for players: you can't just go by an ordered list. It's also a lot of fun IMO.

 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

It's been discussed before, but FF is kinda like poker. Skill helps to do better on average but at the end of the day you still need some luck. That being said, since information is ubiquitous, to me the key is picking the right guy in the tiers. Say you have the 5th pick; there are about 5 RBs (or Calvin) you could take there. Picking the right one makes the difference.

 

always liked the FF to Poker comparison. I consider myself to be fairly good at FF but I also admit that FF is at least 30-40% luck. It always amuses me when people who fancy themselves as great poker players refuse to admit there is any more than a small % of luck involved, unless of course, they lose. Then "that donkey got lucky".

[DrG 103]

I like to have a ranked list of targets w each pick

[We Tigers 71]

There's certainly good advice in this thread by posters who I respect and pay attention to.

 

The question not asked in my mind is 'why' are your teams fading out? Injuries, one position or draft slot not measuring up? Some go crazy on running backs and neglect other positions. Try to identify the specifics not going right and see if there are any questionable patterns you can correct. Analyze a couple past drafts to see if there were guys you picked that underperformed vs. other similarly-rated players that you passed on.

Asking these types of questions will be another way you separate yourself from the rookies/casual observer.

This is a solid point. Understanding your weaknesses can really help. For example, I'm not that great at ranking RBs. I'm lucky if I draft one RB a year who really breaks out and finishes 10-15 spots ahead of his cost. On the other hand, I seem to have an eye for receivers, and come out of almost every draft with 2 or more sleepers who really pay off. So I tend to focus on RBs early in the draft when their success is more predictable, and if I find myself debating between an RB and WR in the 9th round, I try to remember that there's a much better chance I'm right on the WR.

 

Look at some of your past drafts and seasons and try to identify some specific parts of the game where you fell flat, and maybe you can use that to your advantage.

[Maroon Bells 18]

Been in the same money league for 14 years with serious players in 12-team leagues. Have won the SB 6 times during that period and won it all the last two years in a row. My advice?

 

1. Don't listen to the experts, or have an "expert" derived list from which you draft. Instead, study hard and identify 25 to 30 players that your gut tells you are going to breakout or have much better seasons than their ADP, then try to draft as many of them as possible, drafting them a round earlier than their ADP. Only losers are concerned about "reaching" based on some ridiculous "perception" of value. And I've discovered that this strategy is ideally suited to auction drafting.

 

2. Don't be the fool who takes players off his list because he was "burned too many times." Players yo-yo. I LOVE watching great players get passed over because of some stupid personal beef.

 

3. Pay very little attention to players with injury histories.

 

4. Pay almost no attention to last year. Pay more attention to players with big raw talent (high NFL draft choices) who didn't do much the previous year. Mind the yo-yo.

 

5. After the bell cows are gone, stock up on WRs. Good WRs are so much harder to find than good RBs. A good back goes down, his waiver wire replacement can carry you to a Super Bowl. You can't say that about WRs.

 

5. During the season, don't drive yourself insane by sweating your starts, just play the percentages and, again, mind the yo-yo and don't chase points. There's a technical term for it, but I just call it the yo-yo. All players tend to be up one week (or year), down the next.

[zmanzzzz 1]

the addition of flex positions and no te required has really dumbed down ff. having to roster a winning pure lineup is much more difficult.

[DrG 103]

Some more good points

Equally important to spot guys u think will underperform and avoid them

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Been in the same money league for 14 years with serious players in 12-team leagues. Have won the SB 6 times during that period and won it all the last two years in a row. My advice?

 

1. Don't listen to the experts, or have an "expert" derived list from which you draft. Instead, study hard and identify 25 to 30 players that your gut tells you are going to breakout or have much better seasons than their ADP, then try to draft as many of them as possible, drafting them a round earlier than their ADP. Only losers are concerned about "reaching" based on some ridiculous "perception" of value. And I've discovered that this strategy is ideally suited to auction drafting.

 

2. Don't be the fool who takes players off his list because he was "burned too many times." Players yo-yo. I LOVE watching great players get passed over because of some stupid personal beef.

 

3. Pay very little attention to players with injury histories.

 

4. Pay almost no attention to last year. Pay more attention to players with big raw talent (high NFL draft choices) who didn't do much the previous year. Mind the yo-yo.

 

5. After the bell cows are gone, stock up on WRs. Good WRs are so much harder to find than good RBs. A good back goes down, his waiver wire replacement can carry you to a Super Bowl. You can't say that about WRs.

 

5. During the season, don't drive yourself insane by sweating your starts, just play the percentages and, again, mind the yo-yo and don't chase points. There's a technical term for it, but I just call it the yo-yo. All players tend to be up one week (or year), down the next.

 

Solid advice.

 

I'm thinking that this year, instead of ranking every player at each position and all that, I'm just gonna go in with a list of guys that I want and get them. I think I end up getting too into my rankings, where I'll take a guy that I have "ranked" better (based on his perceived value) when I really like another guy who isn't ranked quite as high.

[rholio 339]

 

Solid advice.

 

I'm thinking that this year, instead of ranking every player at each position and all that, I'm just gonna go in with a list of guys that I want and get them. I think I end up getting too into my rankings, where I'll take a guy that I have "ranked" better (based on his perceived value) when I really like another guy who isn't ranked quite as high.

 

Get your guys, agreed. That's where the standard 'experts' ratings come in handy, to give you an idea of which players are going before your guy does. Can you wait another round to get this RB? Which WRs go ahead of the one I want, so I know what names to watch for? This is how I use the generic rankings, to give me an idea of how long I can wait and still expect to get 'my guys'.

 

Sure, I could miss out on my guy, but taking him too early insures I miss out on another quality player.

[Maroon Bells 18]

 

Get your guys, agreed. That's where the standard 'experts' ratings come in handy, to give you an idea of which players are going before your guy does. Can you wait another round to get this RB? Which WRs go ahead of the one I want, so I know what names to watch for? This is how I use the generic rankings, to give me an idea of how long I can wait and still expect to get 'my guys'.

 

Sure, I could miss out on my guy, but taking him too early insures I miss out on another quality player.

 

If you really believe in the players you've identified, then you'll be much better off taking them a round earlier than just "another quality player."

[DrG 103]

I agree that if there's a player you feel really strongly about, okay to draft a round early - but if you are constantly doing that, you will have holes. As a practical matter, once you get to the middle/late rounds, the tiering and difference in anticipated performance is slight and that the rankings should not deter you from picking a round early. As important to target players you don't want at certain spots as it is those you do.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I don't think there is anything wrong with taking the best player on YOUR list a round earlier than his ADP/expected draft spot. But if you are consistently "reaching" for guys (even if they are the top player on your board) who are likely to be around at your next pick, then that is bad drafting/lost value. This is where a combination of ADP and knowing your league is important. You don't want to miss out on your guys, but sometimes you have to realize that your draft spot may dictate who may or may not be available to you. This is especially true early in the draft. For example, if you are drafting late 1st/early 2nd, and are high on a guy with an ADP in the early/mid 3rd round, you have to accept the fact that unless he falls to your late 3rd round pick, you aren't likely to draft him. There is more "value" in taking the perceived much higher ranked guy and trying to trade him for your guy AND something else. Or if your league allows you to trade draft picks, you should try to trade back for your guy. Obviously all leagues are different and some leagues are harder to trade in than others. Again, get to know your league. Have fantasy football conversations with other people in your league prior to the draft. Send out random "Rank the top 10 QB" emails now long before people are really thinking about the draft. It's a fun random conversation while everyone is at work, but you're likely get a feel for who they may or may not like this way.

 

Another very important thing during the draft that kind of falls along the same lines is to make sure you are keeping track of the rosters of every other team in your league during the draft. This is very important to try to project what positions the drafters behind you may be looking at with their next pick. If you draft 9th and are debating taking a QB, but then see the 10th, 11th, and 12th spots all have a QB already, you can likely wait until at least your next pick to draft a QB...and so on. Just my thoughts/opinions.

[Quickolas1 80]

stop playing in 12 team or less snake drafts, esp re-drafts, esp that have the draft way before the end of August, esp with small entry fee.

 

this is a recipe for any joe kinda-fan who watches 4 games a year to pick up a rankings list and beat you.

let alone someone who is somewhere between that and a die-hard.

 

otherwise, if you're crushing it every year in total points and lose a playoff matchup where your team craps out - its bad luck.

if not, then you probably are stuck in mediocrity or the same bucket as everyone else - and you simply need to do a better job picking players.

[Gepetto 1,367]

pick better players

[rholio 339]

 

If you really believe in the players you've identified, then you'll be much better off taking them a round earlier than just "another quality player."

 

I'll take them a round early to make sure I get them, but it's nice to know where they normally go in order to know when that is.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

i agree, have a list of "your players" and reach every now and then to make sure you get the guys you have a conviction on. However ADP should still be used to figure out when you can wait and still get your guy.

 

 

I also saw someone mention staying out of leagues that draft before the end of august. I would say the opposite as drafting earlier will give you an advantage. the longer you wait until draft day, the less any early preparation will help you and the more everyone knows about "arian foster"

[Maroon Bells 18]

 

I'll take them a round early to make sure I get them, but it's nice to know where they normally go in order to know when that is.

 

Of course. I keep the latest ADP list at my side, but I go into a draft knowing exactly where I want to take a player. For example, I identified Doug Martin, Matt Ryan, Brandon Marshall, Kyle Rudolph and Reggie Wayne, among others, as undervalued players. And I determined where in the draft I'd have to select them in order to ensure that I got each one. I took each at least a round ahead of their ADP. The funny thing? On draft day, I didn't get a bunch of people yelling "reach." I got a bunch of grumbles from people who wanted the same player. See, I'm not any smarter than anyone else. Most know intuitively who these players are, but some get so caught up in "perception of value" based on "expert" rankings that they wait too long.

 

This board actually helps a lot to get a feel for what informed players are thinking. For example, I knew by mid-August that Matt Ryan and Doug Martin weren't going to sneak by too many people, so you adjust. And there were a few players I missed on as well (Ryan Mathews), but the way I see it if you get half right, it's pretty tough to lose if your high draft picks stay healthy.

 

And keep in mind I'm only talking about mid to late round players here. It's somewhat counter-intuitive: you win Super Bowls after round 3. All I want from the first three rounds is my players to stay healthy. Pick safe, consistent players in 1-3 and then draft your team.

 

For the last couple years the team I had written down before the draft was about 80% the same as the team I had after the draft.

[Franknbeans 46]

I'm on a five year title run in one league so I totally cannot relate