Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 11, 2013 Each year I try to identify 15 to 20 players that I think will perform better than their ADP and try to draft as many of them as possible. Last year I did pretty well, hitting on about 90% of them: Julio Jones, Doug Martin, Reggie Wayne, Matt Ryan, Kyle Rudolph, Brandon Marshall. As most know, if you do well in the middle rounds (or among the mid-priced auction players), you can pretty much print your ticket to the Super Bowl. I'm just getting started, but I've got a few so far: • Greg Jennings • Larry Fitzgerald • Darren McFadden • Chris Ivory • Colin Kaepernick I've also identified a couple I will avoid: • Reggie Wayne • Kyle Rudolph So who are your guys for 2013? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kmbryant09 1 Posted July 12, 2013 Target: P. Manning C. Kaepernick S. Bradford L. McCoy E. Lacy B. Pierce V. Cruz J. Gordon T. Austin Avoid: M. Stafford B. Roethlisberger A. Foster D. Murray R. Mendenhall D. McFadden B. Marshall V. Jackson T. Smith Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 12, 2013 Nobody's willing to reveal the players they're targeting? What, ya'll play in a league together? ;-) C'mon who are the undervalued players this year. I want this year's version of 2010's Arian Foster. This year's version of 2011's Steve Smith, 2012's Reggie Wayne, all of whom were pretty easy to predict looking back. This can be a very imformative thread for everyone if we get a conversation going. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jersey 3 Posted July 13, 2013 I'll play: QB: Romo Vick Palmer Tannehill Locker (good one) RB: McFadden Ivory Mathews J-Stew (yet taking D-Will soon after not a bad deal) Bernard P Thomas WR: Nelson Hicks Bowe Brown (& Sanders) Garcon Gordon Blackmon Broyles Sanu TE: most after top 10... Myers Cook Cameron Bennett Pettigrew Davis Finley Keller Ballard (as handcuff for Gronk) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FeelingMN 273 Posted July 13, 2013 Targeting: Romo, Luck, Stafford No reason to pay top dollar for a QB this year as the position is really deep. These three stand out as solid QB1 and should balance your lineup after you've stocked up on backs and receivers. Might consider Eli or Cutler if I miss on these guys. Lamar Miller, Shane Vereen, Andre Brown, Giovani Benard Strong flex plays all....maybe even a RB2 with upside in Miller. I think Miami could surprise this year. Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Bowe, Cecil Shorts, Josh Gordon, Michael Floyd, Ryan Broyles I'm stocking up on backs early on (3 out of the first 4 picks)....so much depth at the position that you can find a decent play in the mid to later rounds. And I'm waiting on TE too. Maybe I'll roll the dice with Cook but I might prefer to wait even longer. Finley in a contract year could pay dividends. Black Unicorn in a pass friendly offense should be a good play. Rob Housler has the skill set and enough weapons around him, in an offense that wants to throw where he could post solid numbers. Jordan Cameron is a guy I think could surprise. Turner and Chud like to lean on TEs and the guy is a physical freak. Not too many guys I would absolutely avoid.....but I doubt Ryan Matthews finds a way on to any of my teams this year. DMAC intrigues me but there's the injury thing....and while I'm glad they got rid of the ZBS, they don't have much else going on in OAK. I'm passing right now but if the price is right I might gamble on him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
browns16-0 30 Posted July 13, 2013 Each year I try to identify 15 to 20 players that I think will perform better than their ADP and try to draft as many of them as possible. Last year I did pretty well, hitting on about 90% of them: Julio Jones, Doug Martin, Reggie Wayne, Matt Ryan, Kyle Rudolph, Brandon Marshall. As most know, if you do well in the middle rounds (or among the mid-priced auction players), you can pretty much print your ticket to the Super Bowl. I'm just getting started, but I've got a few so far: • Greg Jennings • Larry Fitzgerald • Darren McFadden • Chris Ivory • Colin Kaepernick I've also identified a couple I will avoid: • Reggie Wayne • Kyle Rudolph So who are your guys for 2013? I am just curious as to your reasoning for these players. I am intrigued that some of these players (Rudolph, Wayne) were on your draft list last year, but this season are on your do not draft list. Do you just feel they are overvalued now due to their performances last season, or is this more to it than that? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,652 Posted July 13, 2013 I'll play: QB: Romo Vick Palmer Tannehill Locker (good one) Are you really going to target these guys for your qb? Besides romo i have no idea what you see in those QBs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chi-city hooligans 0 Posted July 13, 2013 What the heck. I'm mostly in auction drafts so much of this will depend on how the prices go. QB- I'll be waiting on the position. RG3- Drafting low right now and I believe he'll be ready for week 1. Even if he doesn't rush for another 500 yards I believe in him enough as a passer. Stafford- Believe in the talent and a bounce back. Wilson- Love Harvin ending up there. They will still run a ton but potentially will attempt to become a more balanced offense and that will only help Wilson. RB- J Charles- The qb and the coach can only help him. Could lead the league in rushing yards and will get quite a few catches. T Richardson- Obviously some injury concerns but I think he could surprise a lot of people this year. MJD- In a contract year and if he is healthy he's been a consistent producer. If you draft now he's going for quite the discount. Bernard- Just believe in the guys talent and old Cedric Benson is nothing special. Ivory- Crappy team. Big talented back. They don't have much else. Bradshaw- When healthy, he's always been productive and he'll catch passes. He's going low right now. Bell- Not a huge fan of the guy but he just has the opportunity and the steelers could be better than expected. Murray- If he's healthy he could be big. Depending where he goes he could end up on my team. WR Broyles- We've seen what he can do when healthy across from Megatron Bowe- Best Qb of his career Harvin- Love his landing spot and that coaching staff will design plays for him creatively. He'll get a ton of touches Gordon- Obvious guy, going cheap because of the suspension. Brown- Bounce back guy. Garcon- Love the talent and I think he'll stay on the field Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 13, 2013 I am just curious as to your reasoning for these players. I am intrigued that some of these players (Rudolph, Wayne) were on your draft list last year, but this season are on your do not draft list. Do you just feel they are overvalued now due to their performances last season, or is this more to it than that? Based on the fact that Rudolph was Ponder's only real weapon after Harvin, I thought he was undervalued. He went undrafted in a lot of drafts. This year, with Jennings, Carlson, Patterson and Simpson returning to health, Ponder's going to have a lot more options. He's a great tight end with astonishing hands, but I think his TDs are cut in half this year. Wayne will be 35 in November. Everyone thought he was done year before last but he just had QB problems. That's why I loved him in 2012 when Luck arrived. I don't hate him this year, but in my experience receivers can fall off a cliff anywhere after 34. He's too risky this year for where he's being drafted. And then of course, the yo yo. Seldom do players put together back to back good or bad seasons. I think AD gets about 2/3 of what he got last year. Big time talents who've been down are due to rise: Jennings, Blackmon, Fitz, McFadden...Harvin qualifies, but his ADP right now actually seems a little high to me. He's one I won't decide on until I see more about how he's being used. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 13, 2013 Someone sell me on Josh Gordon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jersey 3 Posted July 13, 2013 Are you really going to target these guys for your qb? Besides romo i have no idea what you see in those QBs. Outside of Romo... I see the rest as very high upside QB2s, that if things play out well could put up QB1 numbers. I would not draft anybody but Romo as a pure starter though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 132 Posted July 13, 2013 QBs Romo ADP in the late 7th/early 8th? he's a buy there for sure... Stafford (I think the addition of Bush will help him a lot more than others think... also getting rid of the distraction in Titus Young will propel this team moving forward... (and have you seen al of the negative press about his contract? Time to prove the doubters wrong) Kaepernick - just really love his skillset, crabtree may be done, but i think there is still plenty of talent in the 9ers receiving corps Brees (I think he'll be QB1 overall... and be much better than his 3.01 ADP... and frankly i expect him to go far earlier in drafts anyway) Rivers - If the WR corp is healthy i feel like he could put up big numbers as the chargers will have to keep pace with the broncos for any shot of making the playoffs... you've got DX, Floyd, Brown, and Gates... This offense could surprise a lot of people this year if they can stay healthy... (which is a huge if) ADP 12th round... what have you got to lose? RBs Andre Brown - I've said in other threads... i'm just not a believer in Wilson... and a 3rd round pick to get him? No thanks... Give me the back who has the trust of the head coach, holds on to the football, pass protects, AND should see the majority of goalline carries... ADP 7th.... i think he could easily be putting up RB2 numbers early and often Le'Veon Bell - Pitt needs to get back to running the ball and play action pass... i may need to temper expectations a little bit, but i could see a 2009 season by a healthy mendenhall 1100yds and 7tds... i'd take that out of an RB2 with upside Knowshon Moreno... 3rd on the Depth charts? not so sure i believe that, until Ball proves he can be a member of the passing game (both receiving and picking up blitzes) i will go with either Hillman or Moreno... i like the explosion moreno Brings, and at a 13th round ADP... you could definitely do worse. Pierre Thomas - What has Ingram ever done? He looked slow and plodding last year, and Thomas seemed to be the all around best back on the team... i know sproles will be the main points getter, but at 11.06 i think Thomas is a steal WRs Larry Fitz... alright Bells... you've made a believer out of me, Fitz has a lot to prove in regards to his legacy. He can excuse his last couple of years on QB play, but now that he has a good QB he will be expected to play at a high level. What has he done this postseason? invited Palmer up to Minn to work with him personally... classy move by a classy guy... might reach for him late 2nd. Cecil Shorts III - all on the bandwagon again... Blackmon in more trouble, and the coaches are raving about Shorts III in camp. This guy was good for 80 yds and a TD nearly every game last year... I could see him almost breaking into WR1 numbers this year... i don't think that 1100 yds and 7-8TDs is out of the realm of possibility for a guy on a team that has lost it's running game. Reggie Wayne - Undervalued... especially in PPR TY Hilton- Donnie Avery was in the top 20 last year in redzone targets... He's out of the picture, and it seems that there is no one to compete at WR2 for Hilton this year. Love the guys burst and intensity... if the Colts have close to their offensive production last year... Hilton should put up some big numbers... a bargain in the 7th round. Emmanuel Sanders - Who knows when Miller will come back from his knee injury. Until then you are looking at antonio brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Watching a few games last year i gained a new appreciation for Sanders... he really seemed to be a complete WR who wasn't quite Hines ward-like when it came to run blocking, but he definitely didn't shy away from contact. The program could have gone a different direction at WR this offseason, but i feel Sanders has earned his spot along side brown, and should be a bargain in the 10th round Vincent Brown - Another bargain in the 10th round who was poised for a good season last year before injury. DX hasn't proven that he can stay healthy... although i suppose neither has brown. definitely worth the risk in the 10th IMO TEs Vernon Davis - I think that this is the year he finally plays up to his potential... we had glimpses of it in the playoffs last year, and with Crabtree out i think you can plan on him being a bigger part of the offense going forward. He is also a tough assignment for anyone with his unique blend of size and speed. Brandon Myers - I'm a little biased as i got to watch this guy every saturday and Iowa, but he was a reception machine on the anemic offense of oakland last year. I feel like he could be a big part of the giants redzone scheme with Ds focusing on Cruz and Nicks... Looks for Myers to put up big numbers early this season to keep opposing Ds honest. Ks - who gives a fock Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chi-city hooligans 0 Posted July 13, 2013 I'm not exactly sure why David Wilson is so closely associated with fumble issues. It's soooo overblown. You know how many fumbles he had? ONE. It also was like on his 2nd carry in the nfl and when he fumbled his form was correct and the defender made a play. Every back is going to fumble.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 132 Posted July 13, 2013 I'm not exactly sure why David Wilson is so closely associated with fumble issues. It's soooo overblown. You know how many fumbles he had? ONE. It also was like on his 2nd carry in the nfl and when he fumbled his form was correct and the defender made a play. Every back is going to fumble.... had a known problem at Va Tech... and yes he only fumbled once last year... he only carried the ball 71 times though Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DrG 94 Posted July 13, 2013 Steven Jackson finally has a chance for a Super Bowl. I think he has a great year. Ridley will improve on last years numbers. Barren will tease and then get injured again. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maulers1973 117 Posted July 13, 2013 QB - Brees, Stafford, Alex Smith RB - Martin, Charles, SJax, Gore & McCoy WR - Fitzy, VJax, Bowe, White & Maclin Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
