10th pick out of 12

[bbrowd24 0]

Non-PPR. Looking for some strategies. Have the 10 spot then the 15 spot on the way back.

Double RB-- Alfred Morris and Steven Jackson?
Or double WR-- AJ Green and Dez Bryant on the flip?
One RB and one WR?

Open to any suggestions/strategies. Thanks in advance.

 

[Maroon Bells 18]

I really like grabbing two wides in positions like this. It really just depends on how confident you are in the middle round players. Last year, for example, I felt really confident that Doug Martin was a great value at his ADP (5th round) and could be one of my starting backs, and so I invested heavy in early wides. Couple years before I felt the same about a new running back in Houston named Arian Foster.

 

For a lot of people, it's the opposite, but how I feel about the middle rounds dictates what I do at the top.

[rallo 132]

I really like grabbing two wides in positions like this. It really just depends on how confident you are in the middle round players. Last year, for example, I felt really confident that Doug Martin was a great value at his ADP (5th round) and could be one of my starting backs, and so I invested heavy in early wides. Couple years before I felt the same about a new running back in Houston named Arian Foster.

 

For a lot of people, it's the opposite, but how I feel about the middle rounds dictates what I do at the top.

This... in a non ppr setup i would probably go AJ then Dez or something like that.... although alfred morris would be the back i'd choose if i were going to play it 'safe'

 

this is because i feel that there is value in round 3-5 in RB this year...

 

I would rather have a team like

AJ

Dez

Lamar Miller/ D. McFadden

Le'Veon Bell/ Chris Ivory

 

Versus a Team like

 

Alfred Morris

Dez Bryant

Lamar Miller/Andre Johnson

Le'Veon/ Victor Cruz/ Vincent Jackson

 

But that's just me... (and the only way my opinion would change would be if you could flex a 3rd RB... and it'd still be tough)

[DrG 94]

Toward the end of the first I think you abandon rb rb and take bpa. Drafting 2 premium w r s is not a bad way to go.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,914]

This is the year you take two RB's if you draft 10,11, or 12. You have to get two dependable RB's this year. There are plenty of good WR's out there that you can draft in the 3rd and 4th round. Just because someone got lucky and grabbed Martin in the 5th round last year (in my league someone picked him in the fth) doesn't mean it's going to work that way in your draft. Do a mock draft where you draft two WR's in the 1st and 2nd drafting from the 10 spot. Your team will be lucky to win five games.

[weepaws 2,459]

Non-PPR. Looking for some strategies. Have the 10 spot then the 15 spot on the way back.

 

Double RB-- Alfred Morris and Steven Jackson?

Or double WR-- AJ Green and Dez Bryant on the flip?

One RB and one WR?

 

Open to any suggestions/strategies. Thanks in advance.

 

i bet that you only get a shot at two of the four .when the 15 spot comes back all four will be gone imo

[tanatastic 2,061]

Take the best RB then the first rnd qb that will fall. Make no mistake, its a throwing league and sure the value is later for qb but if it doesnt pan out you are way behind. Grab a sure thing top 4.

[chroniciguana 13]

How closely does your draft mirror ADP? If this is an established league and your hosting service allows you to look back a few years, try to come up with a correlation between ADP (a lot of old ones can still be found online) and how your draft has tended to play out over time. If you find that your guys are virtual slaves to ADP (and I discovered ours are), you can build a relatively small "bubble" of players who are all but certain to be available when those 1.10 and 2.03 picks roll around.

 

If you were in our ADP addicted league, here's what your 1.10 bubble would most probably look like.

 

1.09 LeSean McCoy RB PHI

1.10 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA

1.11 A.J. Green WR CIN

1.12 Dez Bryant WR DAL

A service that aggregates player rankings (and has a pretty good track record) has Dez Bryant (1.12 ADP) ranked at 1.05. If you agree with this ranking, he's your best value. LeSean McCoy, ranked at 1.12, is your next best value. Lynch, with an ADP of 1.10, is ranked at 2.04. Taking McCoy would be tempting. It's also possible Dez would still be lurking at 2.03.You could always grab McCoy at 1.10 (if he's there) and gamble that Dez will fall three ADP spots to 2.03. In this case, I would look at whether the two guys ahead of me at 1.12-2.01 and 1.11-12.02 have a history of taking WRs in the first or second rounds. In our league, both are strictly from the RB-RB (one is certain grab McCoy if I don't) school regardless of where they pick. So yeah, I might consider giving it a shot. What does your league's draft history tell you?

Absent Dez, here's your likely 2.03 ADP bubble:

2.02 Alfred Morris RB WAS

2.03 Brandon Marshall WR CHI

2.04 Matt Forte RB CHI

2.05 Julio Jones WR ATL

Based on ranking, Jones (ranked 1.10 but with a 2.05 ADP) is your best value here, followed by Marshall and Forte. Morris is ranked nearly a full round away at 3.01. But like McCoy at 1.10, if Morris is still on the board he would be hard to pass up. On this one, however, I think I might go outside the bubble, play my gut and grab David Wilson. His ADP puts him at 3.3, but his ranking earns him a 2.4. A player with a third round ADP has never fallen seven spots in our league, so the odds are stacked against him still being on the board at 3.10.

If you can do WR-WR and you go with Dez and Julio down by the school yard. you will come out of the first two rounds 14 picks ahead of the ADP game if you believe the rankings. McCoy and Morris (RB-RB) would, if you belive the rankings, put you 14 picks in the hole. Either way, knowing how your league tends to behave on draft day doesn't come with any guarantees, but it ups the odds you can call your shot in advance.

[Serpent 51]

I think this is the year to go RB-RB especially if the RBs you like are there. If the first 9 picks are all RBs that you wanted maybe then you want to grab a Megatron and grab an RB on the turn, but if both Megatron and AJ are gone by your pick then probably RB-RB will work better.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I cannot bring myself to go wr wr ever again in non ppr. If you can hit on late rbs its great, but that is a hard prediction to make. I think miller is a solid rb on an improved team. Reggie bush, however, has more talent imo and was out to prove he could tote the rock as a bell cow. He did not succeed most games.

 

A few rooks could possibly do it. Maybe andre brown with a wilson injury and an injury free season himself. In non ppr its very risky.

 

Why is the alternative wr wr? Why do so few mention wr te? If you are going to skip on a rb graham could end up the most valuablenplayer in fantasy this year.

[MDC 5,890]

There are at least 8 rbs worth a first round pick IMO and that's excluding Lynch, McCoy, Morris and a few others who will go anywhere from mid-1 to mid-2. So even at 10 you should be able to get a Top 3 receiver along with the cream of the crop at QB.

 

I'm very wary of not drafting a RB with either of my top 2 picks. Personally I'd hope for some combination of say Trent / McCoy plus BPA in the high 2nd.

[DrG 94]

Wr wr better for ppr not non ppr

[cyclone24 1,814]

Ive got the 12th in a non ppr and im in the same boat.....

 

I think what im doing is having a "bottom line RB" that im not taking a worse rb than #____...otherwise im going CJ, DEZ, AJ..some combo of the 2.

 

So if Morris is my last rb rankings wise i dont want to go below and hes there...im going MOrris and lets say...Dez. If hes not....then two WR.

[weepaws 2,459]

Ive got the 12th in a non ppr and im in the same boat.....

 

I think what im doing is having a "bottom line RB" that im not taking a worse rb than #____...otherwise im going CJ, DEZ, AJ..some combo of the 2.

 

So if Morris is my last rb rankings wise i dont want to go below and hes there...im going MOrris and lets say...Dez. If hes not....then two WR.

 

ok

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 266]

... snagged this mock squad, ppr/high octane bonus league rules ... from the 10 hole:

 

Green

Julio

Cobb

Bell

Ivory

Romo

Vereen

Tavon Ausin

Jared Cook

Woodhead

Goodson

PT Cruiser

 

... then essentially a bunch of fillers/fliers .,, Seattle D/ST in that mix.

 

i gladly go to war each week with thise kids.

 

I AM NEW POSTER GUY!!1!

[fixedrate 0]

How bout maybe RB and then maybe Jimmy Graham......no doubt number 1 TE.....just a thought

[kliquid 1]

You can only go WR/WR here if you're absolutely set on loading up at RB with at least three of your next four picks and "playing the matchups" throughout the season. It's very unlikely that you're going to end up with two quality RB in 2013 without addressing the position with at least one of your first two picks.

[Super Cubs 132]

I would seriously consider taking Brees with one of the two picks and bpa with the other.

[cyclone24 1,814]

How bout maybe RB and then maybe Jimmy Graham......no doubt number 1 TE.....just a thought

 

I personally wouldnt but i can see the arguement.

 

Heres the thing......

If you go WR WR you are gambling that those two WR's will outperform everyone elses top 2 WR to the point where it offsets your lack of RBs at a high level.

And same thing if you go RB RB....hoping they offset your lack of elite WR's

I dont like going qb or TE because you only start one usually so the variance between 1-12 (assuming 12 man league where you all get one) isnt terrbily great over the course of a year in the big picture.

 

Im having a bottom line RB at the 12th pick....if hes not there im going WR WR. Im even in the 3rd/4th turn considering going RB/ WR and gambling later on RB's as they share so many carries and get hurt more often...mainly bc people load up on RB's early so you could get something later thats "ok" just bc other teams stopped taking rb's and are scrambling for WR's now.

 

So in mocks ive gotten Aj Green, Dez, David Wilson, Andre Johnson, Chris IVory.....and then i start 3 WR's all year..

 

BUT....thats just me. Not saying its right.....i just am putting less stock in RB's with it being a passing league, timeshares, injuries, etc.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I personally wouldnt but i can see the arguement.

 

Heres the thing......

If you go WR WR you are gambling that those two WR's will outperform everyone elses top 2 WR to the point where it offsets your lack of RBs at a high level.

And same thing if you go RB RB....hoping they offset your lack of elite WR's

I dont like going qb or TE because you only start one usually so the variance between 1-12 (assuming 12 man league where you all get one) isnt terrbily great over the course of a year in the big picture.

 

Im having a bottom line RB at the 12th pick....if hes not there im going WR WR. Im even in the 3rd/4th turn considering going RB/ WR and gambling later on RB's as they share so many carries and get hurt more often...mainly bc people load up on RB's early so you could get something later thats "ok" just bc other teams stopped taking rb's and are scrambling for WR's now.

 

So in mocks ive gotten Aj Green, Dez, David Wilson, Andre Johnson, Chris IVory.....and then i start 3 WR's all year..

 

BUT....thats just me. Not saying its right.....i just am putting less stock in RB's with it being a passing league, timeshares, injuries, etc.

Thats a pretty blatant dismissal of graham as a top 10 most valuable player. If graham and brees connect like they did two years ago, and we know its definitely possible, how is graham not a top 10 overall player? Hes really more like a top 5 depending on tue rest of the field. How is that not worth a pick in the early second?

[cyclone24 1,814]

Thats a pretty blatant dismissal of graham as a top 10 most valuable player. If graham and brees connect like they did two years ago, and we know its definitely possible, how is graham not a top 10 overall player? Hes really more like a top 5 depending on tue rest of the field. How is that not worth a pick in the early second?

 

Because you can get Owen Daniels, Kyle Rudolph, etc 7+ rounds later and only lose 50 total points spread out over a season.

 

I have graham at 152 FP last season....Kyle Rudolph was at 103.

 

IMO i just think your margin of error in your draft is so much less if you go QB or TE early......because now if you miss on a RB or WR...its compounded by the fact that over a season....you are not making it up in big numbers with graham compared to your opponent who waited and still has the 8th best TE lets say...who isnt scoring that much less.

 

Im not saying you are wrong by any means...i just think it can get you in a bind. Not only do you NEED him to go off every week, you have to hope you find some players in the middle of the draft to offset the fact ive been taking RB's and WR's a round better the rest of the way.

 

I dunno....just limits your flexibility...but i totally understand taking qb's and Graham early.....i just dont do it.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Because you can get Owen Daniels, Kyle Rudolph, etc 7+ rounds later and only lose 50 total points spread out over a season.

 

I have graham at 152 FP last season....Kyle Rudolph was at 103.

 

IMO i just think your margin of error in your draft is so much less if you go QB or TE early......because now if you miss on a RB or WR...its compounded by the fact that over a season....you are not making it up in big numbers with graham compared to your opponent who waited and still has the 8th best TE lets say...who isnt scoring that much less.

 

Im not saying you are wrong by any means...i just think it can get you in a bind. Not only do you NEED him to go off every week, you have to hope you find some players in the middle of the draft to offset the fact ive been taking RB's and WR's a round better the rest of the way.

 

I dunno....just limits your flexibility...but i totally understand taking qb's and Graham early.....i just dont do it.

If graham only has 150 points this year then yes, it was a bust pick. That is his absolute floor though. I am drafting him based off of his ceiling or numbers close to what he had in 2011. He could even surpass his 2011 totals. Its worth the risk, and its not really even a big risk imo. Less of a risk than a rb at that spot.

 

Every team is going to come out of the first two rounds with at least a slight deficiency in one position.

[cyclone24 1,814]

If graham only has 150 points this year then yes, it was a bust pick. That is his absolute floor though. I am drafting him based off of his ceiling or numbers close to what he had in 2011. He could even surpass his 2011 totals. Its worth the risk, and its not really even a big risk imo. Less of a risk than a rb at that spot.

 

Every team is going to come out of the first two rounds with at least a slight deficiency in one position.

 

 

Graham is not a risk....no. But now you have put yourself a round behind everyone else at RB, WR. Thats where drafting a TE early makes things a little difficult for me IMO. IMO...i just think it makes it harder to make those points up

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

 

Graham is not a risk....no. But now you have put yourself a round behind everyone else at RB, WR. Thats where drafting a TE early makes things a little difficult for me IMO. IMO...i just think it makes it harder to make those points up

I understand what you're getting at, that it's more your personal drafting strategy/opinion. Just trying to help you see that it's not so bad drafting a TE early. Sometimes it seems easier during draft preparation to just say FOCK IT in regards to the TE position and take the next best guy later in the draft. Most everyone else will have a sub par TE this year so it's not like you are getting dominated every week in the position.

 

It would be nice to have a huge advantage at one position over everyone else instead of just grabbing a solid RB that will most likely not finish in the top tier this season. Top 2/3 WR and top TE is a great start.

[cyclone24 1,814]

I understand what you're getting at, that it's more your personal drafting strategy/opinion. Just trying to help you see that it's not so bad drafting a TE early. Sometimes it seems easier during draft preparation to just say FOCK IT in regards to the TE position and take the next best guy later in the draft. Most everyone else will have a sub par TE this year so it's not like you are getting dominated every week in the position.

 

It would be nice to have a huge advantage at one position over everyone else instead of just grabbing a solid RB that will most likely not finish in the top tier this season. Top 2/3 WR and top TE is a great start.

 

 

Yes IF.....you can make those points up. I agree a top WR and graham as your first 2 picks would be nice....but man thats going to leave some pretty scary rb's left in 3/4 rounds.

 

Just not sure a top WR and graham make up that difference.

 

Id be curious to see how people over the years who have taken graham and gronk really early have faired. And if they won....was it because of THEM....or did they get bailed out by happening to have miraculously snared like...an Alfred Morris last year. And really thats what carried them ya know what i mean?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

 

Yes IF.....you can make those points up. I agree a top WR and graham as your first 2 picks would be nice....but man thats going to leave some pretty scary rb's left in 3/4 rounds.

 

Just not sure a top WR and graham make up that difference.

 

Id be curious to see how people over the years who have taken graham and gronk really early have faired. And if they won....was it because of THEM....or did they get bailed out by happening to have miraculously snared like...an Alfred Morris last year. And really thats what carried them ya know what i mean?

I was that guy last year. I grabbed Graham and Gronk in every league I was in. I won one league and it was not because of Graham. Injuries definitely hurt each of my teams a great deal, but that goes for any first or second round pick that gets hurt usually.

 

The one league that I had Gronk my team was steam rolling when he was hot. Once he got injured I had some other bad luck happen and I ended up missing the playoffs on a team that started off the season looking unbeatable.

 

If Graham would have been as consistent as 2011 my teams would have been much more dangerous than they ended up being with a legitimate shot at the championship.

[cyclone24 1,814]

I was that guy last year. I grabbed Graham and Gronk in every league I was in. I won one league and it was not because of Graham. Injuries definitely hurt each of my teams a great deal, but that goes for any first or second round pick that gets hurt usually.

 

The one league that I had Gronk my team was steam rolling when he was hot. Once he got injured I had some other bad luck happen and I ended up missing the playoffs on a team that started off the season looking unbeatable.

 

If Graham would have been as consistent as 2011 my teams would have been much more dangerous than they ended up being with a legitimate shot at the championship.

 

 

Ah nice. Ya i traded Roddy and Martellus Bennett (early in year when he had a few good games) for Graham.

 

But Morris is who carried me. Think i got him off waivers before week 1.

 

What pick you have this year?

[robb 71]

Another "10th Spot" post.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

 

Ah nice. Ya i traded Roddy and Martellus Bennett (early in year when he had a few good games) for Graham.

 

But Morris is who carried me. Think i got him off waivers before week 1.

 

What pick you have this year?

8/10.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Def do not go wr/wr, this is a terrible year to do that since every serviceable rb is gone by the time your 3rd pick comes around. Go RB RB and dont look back, you will get 2 great ones since the pool of rbs is about 12 deep with guys considered safe. Forte/sjax at worst, possibly Rice, Morris.

[Serpent 51]

Why wouldn't you go RB-RB?

 

Let's just run down the typical draft (it might vary a bit for you but it'll be similar):

 

1 AP

2 Foster

3 Martin

4 Charles

5 Trent Richardson

6 CJ Spiller

7 Marshawn Lynch

8 LeSean McCoy

9 Ray Rice

10 Alfred Morris? <--You

11 Calvin Johnson

12 Steven Jackson

12 Matt Forte

11 Aaron Rodgers?

10 CJ2K <--You

 

Now obviously guys like Brees, Jimmy Graham, Dez can go. Maybe AJ Green. Maybe Megatron goes in the top 10.

 

Point is, you're pretty much guaranteed 2 top 15 RB projected RBs this year at that 10 hole. Then there are guys like MJD that will go soon after but you might want to grab if the other guys are gone that you'd want.

 

It's the early picks this year that can't go RB-RB reliably. They're the ones that have to take a risk and land a top WR most likely to compensate for the top 20 RBs likely off the board by the time they pick again.

 

The only reason you wouldn't want to go RB-RB is if you think the projections are very off this year and so you don't want an RB that high. Last year 7/10 RBs to finish in the top 10 had ADPs outside of the first 2 rounds I believe (I remember looking at this a couple of weeks ago but not too hard).

[Running Rebel 2]

Or as I am proposing to do in my league at 8, depending on your scoring rules,

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=420929

 

Go 1.Calvin Johnson and 2.Drew Brees.