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Frozenbeernuts

Keeper Dilema

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10 team league non ppr standard scoring. 1 qb 2 rb 2 wr 1 rb/wr 1 wr/te

 

I am keeping Foles in the 19th round. I can keep 1 more player and that player can be from any round, i lose the pick in that round.

 

My options

Mccoy 1st round

Dem thomas 2nd round

Spiller 8th round

 

I was pretty much dead set on spiller since he does seem like the best overall value, but the more i look at it the more i want to keep shady.

 

Since we wont know draft position until after keepers are declared, its always risky to keep a first round player. I dont know that any team who has used their first round pick on a keeper has won. The two years i kept AP for a first rounder i didnt win and my teams werent all that great.

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don't get tricked into taking the best "value" with Spiller. he could be a dud again and he wouldn't be an 8th round value.

 

I think you are in a good situation to keep Shady here. He is arguably the top pick. you can make a case for maybe 2 others but McCoy is certainly top 3 MINIMUM, even in standard scoring. So you keep him and maybe you get lucky with a late draft slot.. and in the event you get "unlucky" and draw pick #1, you got market value.

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a real debate would be Lynch for a 1st. In that scenario I might keep Thomas for a 2nd and hope for an early draw.

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Not knowing your draft position and having the option to keep McCoy? I'd keep him.

 

Spiller is a trap, even for an 8th. I'd avoid. Crowded backfield in Buffalo and Bryce Brown wasn't traded for to ride the pine.

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I don't understand whats so hard about this move . Without question you keep Mccoy . Hard to say what Spiller is going to give you .

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Do you value Shady as tier 1 with AP & Charles?

 

If so, then I think you have to keep Shady. You'll be giving up a random 1st round pick (expected value of pick 5.5) to get a top 3 value & one of the safer options. He's also younger and has less wear than AP.

 

Even if you get the #1 or #2 pick, you are not giving up any significant value between Charles, AP & Shady IMO. It's much better to guarantee you get one of those three than to gamble with a slight chance at Charles (if he is even available ... I'd keep Charles if I had him too).

 

If someone keeps either AP or Charles, then it becomes an even better proposition: you are giving up 1 of 9 first round picks (expected value of pick 5) to get one of only two remaining tier 1 RBs.

 

If other teams keep both AP & Charles then you could really get screwed over by not keeping Shady. Imagine drawing pick 2 & having Shady taken with pick 1 .. You'd have to get pick 1 just to tread water in this case.

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Do you value Shady as tier 1 with AP & Charles?

 

If so, then I think you have to keep Shady. You'll be giving up a random 1st round pick (expected value of pick 5.5) to get a top 3 value & one of the safer options. He's also younger and has less wear than AP.

 

Even if you get the #1 or #2 pick, you are not giving up any significant value between Charles, AP & Shady IMO. It's much better to guarantee you get one of those three than to gamble with a slight chance at Charles (if he is even available ... I'd keep Charles if I had him too).

 

If someone keeps either AP or Charles, then it becomes an even better proposition: you are giving up 1 of 9 first round picks (expected value of pick 5) to get one of only two remaining tier 1 RBs.

 

If other teams keep both AP & Charles then you could really get screwed over by not keeping Shady. Imagine drawing pick 2 & having Shady taken with pick 1 .. You'd have to get pick 1 just to tread water in this case.

Long way to go to agree that keeping Mccoy is the answer

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Well one of my keepers has to be from the 10th round or later.

 

One thing that gives me an advantage in the league is my ability to identify talent on the ww and acquire them by dropping one of my late round draft picks. The player off of the ww assumes the value of the player dropped (unless the player claimed was originally drafted, the player will always carry his original draft round).

 

I was able to keep jimmy graham for 2 years with a 17th round sacrifice. Pretty sweet.

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the draft position doesn't matter. McCoy will net you fair value at the very LEAST.

 

i could argue the same for Thomas. If you land pick #12, McCoy would be great value and Thomas would be fair value as 2.1, maybe even good value since he can go as high as 1.7

 

 

I wouldn't keep foles, but that wasn't part of your question

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the draft position doesn't matter. McCoy will net you fair value at the very LEAST.

 

i could argue the same for Thomas. If you land pick #12, McCoy would be great value and Thomas would be fair value as 2.1, maybe even good value since he can go as high as 1.7

 

 

I wouldn't keep foles, but that wasn't part of your question

Why not keep foles in the 19th? From the 10th round to the 19th i literally have no one else i can keep.

 

Maybe i didnt put it in the original post, 1 of our keepers has to be from the 10th round or later if anyone is going to keep a second player.

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Why not keep foles in the 19th? From the 10th round to the 19th i literally have no one else i can keep.

 

Maybe i didnt put it in the original post, 1 of our keepers has to be from the 10th round or later if anyone is going to keep a second player.

 

well in that case, yeah keep foles. my bad. i thought it was just picking 2 and you were picking foles because 19th is amazing value.

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