Keeper Question - Montee Ball as 5th Round Or J Charles 1st Round

[mcarlton 0]

12 team .5 PPR 1 Keeper. I am 12th pick over all (I won last year)

 

I can keep either Charles as my 1st round or Montee Ball as my 5th round. I see lots of predictions of Ball going late round 1. Do I go for the sure thing of Charles as my 1st round pick or take a risk on Ball and a 5th round. Is 5th round benefit worth the risk?

 

I'll answer yours...

[rholio 339]

Tough choice really. Charles is much safer, and with 12 players being kept, you're basically well into the 2nd round with your #12 pick. Still, I'd take the chance with Ball. He seems like a much better value and will let you add another good RB / WR to pair with him.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

I would keep ball.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Definitely Ball

[Quickolas1 80]

I'm not sure I'd want possibly 22 players off the board before I pick with Montee Ball and no 5th rounder, especially if you feel you can out-draft and get, say, 3rd round value out of your 5th round pick and J.Charles.

 

I'd list all the teams with what you feel is their best keeper choice/round taken and project who is available at 12 if you keep Montee Ball.

Who does it look like your 1.12 (and 2.01 for that matter) would be?

Then if someone doesn't choose the best case scenario (for them), you might even have a slightly better player choice at 1.12/2.01.

 

Out of curiosity, if you don't keep Charles... plotting it out... who would the last place owner from last year (that doesn't keep a 1st rounder) end up with along with Charles?

...since obviously Charles would be the first pick. The margin for error is very small in a 12 team league. Would that team have something sick like J.Charles & L.McCoy?

[weepaws 2,452]

I would keep Charles .

[$epphori$ 118]

Charles no doubt. Ball is no lock, he is just expected to be able to hanlde the load..we dont know if he can yet, but we know Charles can

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I have been in a keeper for a while now. I can honestly say that i hate keeping first round picks. It just never seems to work out well.

[Kent 228]

Charles. Ball could be a total bust.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Charles could tear his acl. I like the value for ball.

[mcarlton 0]

OP Here. Thanks for all your responses.

Updates and questions answers. Charles Looks to go to guy with E Lacy. However this guy has won the league a few times and no pushover.

 

Did a look at potential of what would be left at 1.12 and 2.01

Likely keepers: McCoy, Forte, AP, Megatron, Lacy, Demarco Murray, L Bell and for those left I have effectively the 7th/8th pick as people have used some of there #1 picks on the above.\

Likely to go Round 1 before I pick: Charles, J Graham, Ball, Geo Bernard, Foster, Dem Thomas as a guess.

 

Left for me at 1.12/2.01

P Manning

Z Stacy

J Jones

B Marshall

Maybe D Martin

AJ Green

Maybe ALF

 

So if i keep Ball I could pair him with 2 of those. or If i keep charles I could get 1 of those. I am not too excited on the RBs at that point but Stacy, ALF, Martin isnt bad as a #2. Likely could pick up a B Sankey or Gerhart on the return.

 

 

All that being said.. Maybe a WR WR or AJ/Julio might be good as well with Ball. Pickup a Sankey or Gerhart

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I didnt realize you had the 12th pick. I would go with charles.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Charles and AJ isn't a bad start but neither is Ball, AJ and Marshall....

[ffgiant 10]

There isn't a sure thing in FF. I will keep Ball for as 5th round.

 

[mcarlton 0]

I think I am leaning towards Ball and grabbing the best 2 WRs unless somehow Murray drops to me or something simular. Marshal/AJ/Julio sound pretty good on the turn.

[weepaws 2,452]

Like i first said . Very easy easy easy move . You keep Charles . Don't over coach just keep the stud players and not the one that might be .

[weepaws 2,452]

Charles could tear his acl. I like the value for ball.

Oh my soul . So could Ball tear his acl . Come on man dummy up

[Quickolas1 80]

I think I am leaning towards Ball and grabbing the best 2 WRs unless somehow Murray drops to me or something simular. Marshal/AJ/Julio sound pretty good on the turn.

You said you might be 7th or 8th but you listed 6 players with one of them being Ball? If you'd rather have B.Marshall, AJ Green or Julio over all the unkept RBs wouldn't those owners you're projecting to take Ball(?), Arian and Gio as well?

[mcarlton 0]

I decided to look at this the way another poster went in on it for his issue do I want to build a team around:

1. Charles, AJ Green and something like VJAX/Toby

2. Ball, AJ Green and Marshall

 

 

I like #2 better. Obviously nobody is a sure bet. Even Charles missed most of a season a few years ago.

[WooFantasyFootball 0]

Ball will be a TD machine due to the Broncos O.

[BoxFullofJoel 3]

Am I missing something ? How is this a question JC not worth your 12th ?

[vrabinec 19]

I really like the the second option. You get Ball, a guy who should put up numbers close to Charles this year. Maybe not AS good, but close enough that he's a great value at 5. Then go with the best receiver that's left, and hold your nose and pick whichever RB you like the best with the second pick at the turn. Better value at receiver by the time you get to the NEXT turn, than there is at RB. So you have a stud RB, a stud WR, and a pseudo effective RB. Or go for the two stud receivers. I like the value of some of the later RB's like Gore if you get Hyde for the transition. Or Richardson if you get Bradshaw in case Richardson shits the bed.

[GreenTD 56]

I think this is a solid topic of debate & I'm currently in a similar situation in my keeper league that I commish. 12-team PPR league where 1-2 players can be kept each year & 1st rounders can't be kept.. A player can only be kept for 2 years, which means if you draft a player in 2014, he can be kept at most for the 2015 & 2016 seasons.

 

I figured out all of the final rosters & likely keeper selections with players that have been kept up to their maximum length tossed back into the general player pool. Player's that will be available in the 1st round are as follows: QB: A. Rodgers & D. Bree's RB: AP, McCoy, Forte, Foster, CJ Spiller, M. Ball, L. Bell, WR: Megatron, AJ Green, Julio, D. Thomas, B. Marshall. TE: Graham

 

That's 15 player's projected to go in the 1st round or top of the 2nd round so I could draft 2 of these players since I have the 10th & 15th overall picks.

 

My possible keepers are as follows with the round forfeited if they are kept in parentheses: J. Charles(2), G. Bernard (4), R. Gronkowski (6) & K. Allen(10).

 

Gio is already locked in as my 1st keeper due to me being a Bengal fan & the obvious value. My 2nd choice looks obvious with Charles but there's 2 issues that make it something to ponder. 1) This is the last year I can keep him so he automatically gets thrown back into the pool in 2015. 2) If I were to keep either Gronk or Allen, then I'd be able to select 2 of those 15 players along with my two later round keepers.

 

So it boils down to, do I prefer a team of Charles/Gio + 1 of those Top 15 or Gio/Gronk or K. Allen + 2 of those Top 15 players.

 

Charles was an obvious catalyst to my championship team last season in this league but does releasing him ensure me a better supporting cast by making 2 selections in the Top 15?

Any insight or discussion into this also sheds some light on the OP's situation as well as sharing everyone's opinion on keeper values in relation to drafts.

[mcarlton 0]

GREEN -

I think this comes down to for you is do you think you can get someone better than Charles by throwing him back in. I dont think you can. My dillema would be is Marshall/AJ + Ball better for me than Charles + 5th round pick.

[PackYourNut 47]

Look at their ADP, assign your own value to them and the take the difference.

 

Charles is a top 3 pick, you can get him at 12 or 9 picks later... Or you can grab 2 stud WR or another stud RB like Murray for example.

 

Ball is a 2nd round pick, you can get him 3 rounds later? Who can you get in the 5th round that "might" perform like AJ/Julio/Murray?

 

Now, what is the value difference?

 

I would say it's more likely that Ball and your stud WR/RB outperform Charles and a random 5th rounder.

[GreenTD 56]

GREEN -

I think this comes down to for you is do you think you can get someone better than Charles by throwing him back in. I dont think you can. My dillema would be is Marshall/AJ + Ball better for me than Charles + 5th round pick.

I won't get as good of a RB in the 1st or 2nd round but it's very similar to your situation.

 

Do I prefer a Julio/Charles + Gio or a Julio/M. Ball + Gio/K. Allen?

 

Both options look good since we "know" what we're getting outta Charles but the upside of an upstart player in Ball coupled with a Marshall/Julio/AJ Green gets me an extra starter essentially.

 

That's the thing that gets lost in keeper decisions like this. What kind of player would I get with the 2.3 pick in relation to the 10.3 pick if I keep K. Allen (or 6.3 pick in Gronkowski)?

[mcarlton 0]

Well at minimum you are spreading your risk among more players. I doubt Charles beats his output last year but I dont see him in a down year either. I guess it comes down to how much i believe in Ball. I'm leaning towards Ball...

[Hawkfin 32]

I can see both points and feel the hard decision.

Here's my view:
It's only .5 PPR. To me this down grades Charles just a little bit. It makes TD's just a bit more important. I think Ball squeeks up the board a little bit in this format because I think he has more potential for TD's. They both play the same div, but I say Denver is the better team with more chances to score and better offense. Ball is clearly #1 and should have a big season. Charles has been hurt before and older, but clearly he's elite. His system is awesome for catches, but will KC repeat that kind of year and with another huge workload for Charles? Will KC play Def battle games causing lower stats and less big pop plays?
I personally have Ball in the top 5-8 for RB's with higher potential so it helps his case IMO.

Here's my final conclusion: IF you go WR/WR and "your sure" you will land 2 of those stud WR's then I like the team going with Ball. I think those 2 stud wides are in the same class as Charles anyway really.
If you plug in Murrey or somebody like that, then I'm not really feeling it all that much. I'd rather have Charles & 1 Stud WR & 5th rounder with hopes of re-drafting Ball at some point.

I think I'd go Ball and draft the 2 stud WR's if I was positive they would both be there.
(But, this has a lot to do with me projecting Ball as a late 1st, early 2nd round pick.

That being said, you are getting good value for Charles still. 12th for #1 overall player - That's the safe play and you would not be setting somebody up for greatness to boot.
If you can only bank on 1 of the stud WR's falling by the 12-13 area, then I'd just go ahead and go with Charles.