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tanatastic

Picking your RB2..The nightmare...the struggle.

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So iv just started to do some preliminary mocks and pre ranking stuff. A funny concept that I wanted to write about is the difficulty in taking an RB2 this year. For this we will assume 12tm, standard scoring flex league non ppr. The situation had me at pick 6 where I took Lacy. Ok, im cool with that, I like Lacy, so the guy after me takes Calvin wich is fine. But then rnd 2 comes around and things get interesting. Its his pick and he takes frickin Zac Stacy over AJ Green whom I then take happily. Lacy and Green? Im stoked. So I ask what his thoughts were. He says he thought about Green but was terrified about what his Rb1 would look like since he took Calvin first and Stacy was his best RB left on board. Stacy aside, whichever RB is left for you to pick will look a helluva lot worse than freakin AJ green or the next monster wr still on board thats next on your list. So even tho you took Calvin, wrs will still look great for the next 4 rounds or so compared to the crap at RB! So would you rather have Calvin and a 2nd rnd rb or LAcy and AJ Green? The 2nd rnd rb doesnt excite you, but AJ does. Thats the problem with taking Calvin or any non RB in rnd 1.

 

So now its rnd 3 and I have an rb and a wr I love. But here comes my pick and trust me guys...the rb selection at this point will not make you very happy. You will then look at the wrs left on board and see a ton of amazing talent and great players left. I took Cobb, since I love Cobb, but there were other awesome wrs as well and absolute trash at RB that looked no dif than 6th rounders to me. Ok so now its round 4...same story, I still hate the rbs left yet there are STILL good wrs! I take Roddy, since I love roddy to bounce back. I now have 3 great wrs and only 1RB! So now qb is getting thin and the last of the tes are looking scarce while all the rbs look the same. So I take Ryan and Witten. I STILL dont have an RB2! Whats left are just deangelos and lamar millers of the world, its a sad state.

 

So that was just a mock and an example of how important it is to get 2 rbs early yet how painful it is to take that 2nd one over the choices at wr that will be staring at you. Its like the wrs are the devils on your shoulder and the meager rbs are the angels. I know I HAVE to take an rb2 fast but the value at WR is just so high for 4 rounds straight. You simly have to sack up and take that 2nd rb over the stud wr thats still on the board. Just remember...Calvin and a meh rnd 2 rb? or a stud RB and a stud wr in rnd 2? Be prepared to live with either situation...

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I will always go with the player no matter the position that I feel is the better player . That's why I do my own cheat sheets . Also depends on the leagues lay out . In two of the leagues I am in they are going to try one starting Rb and three starting Wr so that's something new to me .

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Personally I am looking at this year like I will have no "RB2" per se. I'll get an RB1 and then have a collection of guys that might turn into RB2s. It's better than snagging some crap RB while there's still a ton of good WRs available.

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Ive come to the realization that a RB 2 is a luxury now - I think you can make up those lost points with a Decent TE and a Strong WR core though! Change your mindset on a RB2 - and feel ok with a Jennings or a moreno?

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Personally I am looking at this year like I will have no "RB2" per se. I'll get an RB1 and then have a collection of guys that might turn into RB2s. It's better than snagging some crap RB while there's still a ton of good WRs available.

This is what iv done in recent years with success. It's easier the earlier you pick since the wrs you give up wont be as painful. But pick 6 or later it's just too good to take a wr in rnd2.

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An easier strategy to go WR-heavy in the 2RB/3Wr leagues. Might also be tempting in the 2rb/2wr/2flex leagues. The RB depth is little greater in PPR leagues. By the same token, your draft experience suggests that if you had gone rb rb, there were still plenty of pretty good wrs to pick up in rounds 3-6.

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Personally I am looking at this year like I will have no "RB2" per se. I'll get an RB1 and then have a collection of guys that might turn into RB2s. It's better than snagging some crap RB while there's still a ton of good WRs available.

 

 

Didn't go into last year's draft with this mind set but that is what ended up happening in every draft I did.

 

This year I feel the RB2s in those early rounds are even worse so I just plan on getting a good first one and then filling in with the "collection". Gio and Spiller would be the only backs I'd draft in rounds 2/3 based on the ADP so far....camp is just around the corner so things will obviously change in the coming weeks.

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Didn't go into last year's draft with this mind set but that is what ended up happening in every draft I did.

 

This year I feel the RB2s in those early rounds are even worse so I just plan on getting a good first one and then filling in with the "collection". Gio and Spiller would be the only backs I'd draft in rounds 2/3 based on the ADP so far....camp is just around the corner so things will obviously change in the coming weeks.

 

This right here. Camp is gonna be a big difference maker when it comes to who I shall be drafting and when

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I would suggest that after the 1st 4 or 5 RB's they are all risky... so many of ya are not going to have a true # 1 so get used to it

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I have said this before, if you are drafting in the back half get a stud WR, Graham or Peyton if they is there. I would go as far as saying grab another WR or Rodgers in the second round then collect a bunch of RB's from there on. The thing is all teams after the 1st 4 or 5 studs have multiple guys that could take over the carries. RBBC, injury's ect Just one mans opinion

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I would suggest that after the 1st 4 or 5 RB's they are all risky... so many of ya are not going to have a true # 1 so get used to it

Wow . Now how do you really feel ?

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Personally I am looking at this year like I will have no "RB2" per se. I'll get an RB1 and then have a collection of guys that might turn into RB2s. It's better than snagging some crap RB while there's still a ton of good WRs available.

Good advice here ! I will try and get 2 rb's in the first couple rounds but I only count about 11 rb's that I would like to have two of. And passing on a tier 1 wr in the 2nd round for a tier 2 or 3 rb seems crazy. Then like Tanatastic said the rb's in rounds 3-6 make you want to start the draft over ! And the wr's in those rounds are great !

 

In the mocks I've done I seem happier with my team when I do go rb-rb in the first two rounds just because I hate looking for rb's in the dead area of 3-6 and the wr's in those rounds have great value. I love the option of only having to start 1 rb in today's pass happy nfl. Hopefully as the season gets closer the list of 11 rb's I like will increase.

 

Good luck fellas in your drafts this year !

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I think that after these 7 guys, everyone is a role of the dice:

Mccoy

Charles

ADP

Forte

Lacy

Bernard

Lynch

 

Add in these five guys, and I think you need one of them:

Bell

Murray

Ball

stacy

spiller

 

 

after that you are better off to grab 2-4 guys and hope for the best:

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I think that after these 7 guys, everyone is a role of the dice:

Mccoy

Charles

ADP

Forte

Lacy

Bernard

Lynch

 

Add in these five guys, and I think you need one of them:

Bell

Murray

Ball

stacy

spiller

 

 

after that you are better off to grab 2-4 guys and hope for the best:

I think i would drop Lynch from the top tier and replace him with Murray

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RBBC its the new football .. So its going to be apart of ff .

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I think that after these 7 guys, everyone is a role of the dice:

Mccoy

Charles

ADP

Forte

Lacy

Bernard

Lynch

 

Add in these five guys, and I think you need one of them:

Bell

Murray

Ball

stacy

spiller

 

 

after that you are better off to grab 2-4 guys and hope for the best:

Explain the Bernard love. I don't see it and I've been trying to see it.

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I think that after these 7 guys, everyone is a role of the dice:

Mccoy

Charles

ADP

Forte

Lacy

Bernard

Lynch

 

Add in these five guys, and I think you need one of them:

Bell

Murray

Ball

stacy

spiller

 

 

after that you are better off to grab 2-4 guys and hope for the best:

Damn that's scary especially since bell is the only guy I like in the 2nd group. I really have to get a top 5 pick or I'm gonna be sad.

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Someone will emerge that isnt in the top five as a top five back during the season. That is going to be Ellington, Rice, Stacy, MJD, or Johnson. Johnson is the one I am banking on.

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Someone will emerge that isnt in the top five as a top five back during the season. That is going to be Ellington, Rice, Stacy, MJD, or Johnson. Johnson is the one I am banking on.

No way its mjd, and i doubt rice also. Johnson as in chris johnson? There are a lot of johnsons out there.

 

Ellington could, i am just really apprehensive with that brutal division.

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Toby Gerhart for the win! I hope.

 

Would ya'll feel comfortable starting Gerhart every week? I'd day he is a solid bet for 20 touches each week minimum and hopefully some tds sprinkled in on occasion.

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I'll draft Spiller in the 3rd, other than that I'll wait a little on RB2. Last year my league went to a 1 qb,1rb,1rb/wr, and 3 wr/te setup. It allows you not to feel pressured into take a RB2 too early.

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^ I think the Jets might be too committee oriented for CJ to have that great of a season. His calling card the past couple years has been that he got the vast majority of the touches and pretty much stayed healthy. He hasn't really shared carries since the Lendale White days.

 

Now he enters with the knee issue, hopefully nothing as a Jets fan, and talk of a hot hand. The Jets will give Ivory touches and series if he's running well...and won't be afraid to pull Johnson if he doesn't hit the hole the way they want a couple times. Ivory may also prove to be the GL back too.

 

I'm more optimistic about our coaches than I have been but we also have a history of miss using players and not allowing them to develop a rhythm.

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Toby Gerhart for the win! I hope.

 

Would ya'll feel comfortable starting Gerhart every week? I'd day he is a solid bet for 20 touches each week minimum and hopefully some tds sprinkled in on occasion.

I am going to be starting gerhart in 2 leagues, one of them he may be my rb1.

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I am going to be starting gerhart in 2 leagues, one of them he may be my rb1.

Well I don't have your confidence. I'm keeping him for a 10th so he isn't going to kill me if he busts.

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If he's your RB1, I hope you have some bodacious receivers and TEs.

One league is a dynasty league that fell apart on me. Other rb options are L Bell, tate, mathews, woodhead. Receivers are garcon, harvin, cooper, jordon matthews. Tes suck in garrett graham, eifert, ASJ. Its a solid team that should be a playoff contender.

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^ I think the Jets might be too committee oriented for CJ to have that great of a season. His calling card the past couple years has been that he got the vast majority of the touches and pretty much stayed healthy. He hasn't really shared carries since the Lendale White days.

 

Now he enters with the knee issue, hopefully nothing as a Jets fan, and talk of a hot hand. The Jets will give Ivory touches and series if he's running well...and won't be afraid to pull Johnson if he doesn't hit the hole the way they want a couple times. Ivory may also prove to be the GL back too.

 

I'm more optimistic about our coaches than I have been but we also have a history of miss using players and not allowing them to develop a rhythm.

Ivory may also get hurt, which as a saints fan, I know about him all too well.

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I also heard otherwise about Johnson. He doesnt think it will affect him and that jets plan to still make him the workhorse back.

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I also heard otherwise about Johnson. He doesnt think it will affect him and that jets plan to still make him the workhorse back.

 

He's also been talking up another 2,000 yard season for years now. He says a lot of things.

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None of these guys are the talent that CJ was, IS?, but the Jets basically gave Ivory and Powell an even split last year. 182 to 176 carries and Mike Goodson would have earned some touches too if he didn't get hurt. I don't think CJ will get close to the 279 he had last year. Maybe more like 220.

 

And not for nothing Powell can hold his own if called up. Last year a 4.0 YPC and a 7.6 receiving average vs CJ's 3.9 and 8.2

 

Powell had a long carry of 39 and 3 20+ yard runs.

 

CJ had a long carry of 30 yards and 5 20+ yard runs.

 

 

Then you have the 6 tds Geno rushed in and the 2 that our defensive rookie of the year Sheldon Richardson plowed in.

 

Love CJ being on my Jets squad next year...I just don't see top 5 potential....but this one I would love to be wrong about. :cheers:

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I do have to say though that I am intrigued by him playing next to a mobile QB again. Vince Young was his QB during the 2,000 yard season. I think that extra space provided by the QB rushing threat really opened things up for him.

 

He's since been playing with the likes of Kerrry Collins, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

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I do have to say though that I am intrigued by him playing next to a mobile QB again. Vince Young was his QB during the 2,000 yard season. I think that extra space provided by the QB rushing threat really opened things up for him.

 

He's since been playing with the likes of Kerrry Collins, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

This is a great point that I have overlooked. I may have to bump CJ up a few spots. He's exactly the kind of guy that is one of those surprises that we all say we saw coming but really no one did.

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CJ conning owners for another season, chasing that 2000 yard season. He may do it, i will not be the one hoping it happens. Dude is so erratic.

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Guys like Johnson and Willie Parker who are so dependent on speed for their yards never fare well once they drop off the table. Once the extra burst is gone, and it NEVER lasts, defenses begin to catch up to them, and they don't have enough moves/power to compensate. This isn't Barry Sanders who could juke one way and the whole defense would be leaning like the Tower of Pizza while he cut back the other way. CJ will probably put up around 1000 yards, but he'll never be a stud again. He just doesn't have the after-burner anymore.

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Man, we just had our big money draft. I ended up with Richardson as my RB2. He better not crap the bed. I don't have room on my roster for Bradshaw. (I gotta keep Freeman on the roster in case my #3 Jackson blows a tire again this year) I'm gonna be sweatin' through preseason like fat Oprah on a bike. I was picking late in the first and ended up with Dez and Graham as my 1st 2 picks, so it was all downhill from there for RBs.

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Explain the Bernard love. I don't see it and I've been trying to see it.

 

Cincy has been very vocal about playing more of a ball control offense. They ranked 8th in the league in attempts last year but all the way down at 18th in yards. 12th in passing attempts so it wasn't like they were too one sided. Turnovers from Dalton were more of an issue in balancing out the offense.

 

New OC Hue Jackson....

2010 Raiders OC : 2nd Rushing Yards, 2nd Yds / attempt, 2nd TDs

2011 Raiders HC : 7th, 8th, 8th

4th and 7th in attempts both years.

 

Gio had about 230 touches last year and they have already been saying they want him more involved. Not predicting 300 touches but it will be closer to that than the 230 last year. More efficient offense, more TD opportunities even with them adding Hill. Top 5 ranked RB per PFF's advanced performance metrics. He is a talented, shifty back that can catch and will be getting the majority of touches in a top 10 offense. More value in ppr where he can be a back end RB1 / top end RB2 type but I would be ok with going CJ/Dez to start and getting Gio in the 2nd and pairing him with a Spiller or Gehardt in 3rd. So much WR value out there you should have no problem filling out the wr2/3 spots in rounds 4-10.

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I don't think Bernard's stats will change that much. He might get a few more touches, but not a lot more. That's why the drafted Hill early in the 2nd. Hill's gonna pound teams, Bernard's gonna be the Reggie Bush type back. If you wanna see what his production maxes out at, just take a look at Bush's. It's respectable, but he'll never be an elite Jamal Charles type IMO, not with Hill as an option. It's a nice 1-2 back combo they have themselves, but it's definitely RBBC.

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I don't think Bernard's stats will change that much. He might get a few more touches, but not a lot more. That's why the drafted Hill early in the 2nd. Hill's gonna pound teams, Bernard's gonna be the Reggie Bush type back. If you wanna see what his production maxes out at, just take a look at Bush's. It's respectable, but he'll never be an elite Jamal Charles type IMO, not with Hill as an option. It's a nice 1-2 back combo they have themselves, but it's definitely RBBC.

 

Agreed but not many are though....

 

I will be more than happy if I end up with Gio as my rb2 in any of my ppr leagues. At his 2nd rd ADP though I will likely end up with a Spiller or Vereen in the 3rd as part of a rb2 committee.

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Agreed but not many are though....

 

I will be more than happy if I end up with Gio as my rb2 in any of my ppr leagues. At his 2nd rd ADP though I will likely end up with a Spiller or Vereen in the 3rd as part of a rb2 committee.

My current NFFC 12-teamer PPR picking at 1.4, I drafted Forte and then was able to get Gio at 2.9. Was pretty happy with that, won't be looking at RB anytime soon. And then grabbed Gronk in the 3rd right before the news broke that he would be ready to start the season and not on the PUP.

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