Start a QB to cancel out opposing WR's

[Go long 0]

I am wondering what others do in this situation. I have two similar QB's, Romo and Flacco. Based on the match up with Indy I was going to start Flacco this week. Dallas has Houston. My opponent is starting Terrence Williams and Jason Witten. Does it make sense to start Romo because of this??

[TwentyFourSeven 23]

Start the players who will score you the most points.

[weepaws 2,460]

Yea

[Captain Goomy Noomy Roo 47]

Romo will do better anyway. Best of both worlds...play Romo

[GreenTD 56]

I love these threads. Start whomever you think will score the most points/has the best matchup.

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 266]

- FAIL.

 

in the majority of scoring setups, wrs get 1 pt per 10 yds, while qbs are 1 per 25.

 

so the guy has the wrs from your qbs team actually benefits more, as he's scoring at a higher clip via yards ... factor in ppr, and it's even more advantageous.

 

25 yd pass from Romo to Williams nets you 1 point, gives him 2.5 (3.5 in ppr)

 

tds are negligible if 6 all across the board.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

Op, repeat after me "You cannot cancel out your opponent's points"

 

Will you feel better if you start Romo (gets 15 points) and their passing offense doesn't do squat (so Witten and Terrance Williams get next to nothing) but Flacco goes off on your bench for 50? You still lost 35 points had you started Flacco.

 

Evaluate your players based solely on what you think they'll get and be done with it.

[Law 220]

In fantasy it may seem that we are playing against another team, but, in reality, we are not. You and your opponent these are wholly independent entities that have nothing in connection to each other other than being compared on a stat line at the end of the day.

 

As others have said, think ONLY of your team and start the options that will score the most points. Your ONLY goal is to score as many points as YOU can!

[shutdown 40]

I see these responses every year to "start the player you think will score the most points" This is perfectly logical only if you know WHO will score the most points. While you never truly know in some cases it's pretty obvious. For example, considering your opponents lineup should never come into play if you are selecting between someone like Drew Brees vs Tampa's pass defense or Romo vs Houston's Defense. In the majority of game scenarios that could play out, Brees is going to amass more points than Romo, so even if your opponent has Dez, Bryant, you aren't starting Romo over Brees because Brees is highly statistically likely to score more points than Romo this week. Now it may not work out that way but you almost have to assume it will.

 

However as the OP mentioned, he has two like QB's in Romo and Flacco. Flacco has a slightly better matchup on the road playing an indy team that allows fantasy QB's to score slightly above average points at that position. Romo is home to a Houston that holds fantasy QB's to about 10% below average production. There is very little statistical data to support one of these players significantly outperforming the other. FF today ranks Romo as the #13 QB start this week and Flacco as the #15 start, both at the top end of Tier 3.

 

So because you don't know who will score more points before you play, considering your opponents roster isn't a bad idea when your starting options are nearly equal. If I feel that my opponent has a particularly strong play at WR and one of my options is to play that WR's QB, I will factor this in to my decision on whom to start. It's a risk mitigation strategy. If his WR, who I can see has a good matchup goes off, my QB keeps pace. This is something I know BEFORE the game is played, barring a fluke injury of course. Again, I'm only doing this if I feel i really don't have much to gain by starting the other option I have at QB.

 

Cancel out is really a bad term for this strategy. In the end, if you start Romo and he throws every pass to Whiten and Williams, but Flacco scores more points than Romo it's a bad decision. What you are doing by starting Romo is mitigating the risk that Williams and/or Whiten have a big game thus carrying Romo along with them to some degree because you know prior to the game that if Williams/Whiten have big days, than Romo will have a portion of those points to help offset that.

 

So yes, start who you think scores the most is correct, but when your decision comes down to two very similar players, your opponents lineup can, in my opinion, be factored into the equation.

[jrbdmb 28]

If T. Williams goes for 120 yards and a TD this weekend, then he earns 18 points and Romo earns 8 points (standard scoring, 4 points for QB TD pass). So much for canceling the WR out.

 

Pick the best QB / matchup and go with it.

[hotgumbo1 12]

Start Testaverde.

[DaBeerz 88]

I never care what my opponent is starting, it doesn't impact my lineup. I start my best player by matchup and roll with it.

[Law 220]

I start whoever DaBeerz is NOT starting.

[tanatastic 2,061]

In fantasy it may seem that we are playing against another team, but, in reality, we are not. You and your opponent these are wholly independent entities that have nothing in connection to each other other than being compared on a stat line at the end of the day.

 

As others have said, think ONLY of your team and start the options that will score the most points. Your ONLY goal is to score as many points as YOU can!

This. Its just numbers vs numbers. Not even that, its your numbers and then just hope randomly his are lower than yours. Its almost entirely based upon luck, since you maybe could have beaten 10 other people in the league but you happened to be playing the guy who scored higher than you.

 

 

Op, repeat after me "You cannot cancel out your opponent's points"

Also this. Its a good exercise, just breath deep and repeat.

[Dueces Will Be Wild 15]

IMO the only time this strategy works is if you have a solid lead already and both of you are down to your last players. A hypothetical would be let's say SD and CHI are playing Monday night you are up by 15 points, you can play Rivers or Cutler and your opponent only has Brandon Marshall left. In that case, playing Cutler would probably be the smart choice because it would be very difficult for Marshall to outscore Cutler by 15 points.

[H-man 12]

Start the players who will score you the most points.

This^. The exception is in a case where it's in a later game and you already have a huge lead, then you can limit variance (luck) and play your other viable QB who has your opponents' weapons covered in order to offset a potential comeback by him.

[HOKIEZ 34]

This is ridiculous. As most have said start who you think will get you the most points. If romo throws all his tds to witten and williams, at least he threw tds. What if flacco throws none?

[TimHauck 1,799]

I see these responses every year to "start the player you think will score the most points" This is perfectly logical only if you know WHO will score the most points. While you never truly know in some cases it's pretty obvious. For example, considering your opponents lineup should never come into play if you are selecting between someone like Drew Brees vs Tampa's pass defense or Romo vs Houston's Defense. In the majority of game scenarios that could play out, Brees is going to amass more points than Romo, so even if your opponent has Dez, Bryant, you aren't starting Romo over Brees because Brees is highly statistically likely to score more points than Romo this week. Now it may not work out that way but you almost have to assume it will.

 

However as the OP mentioned, he has two like QB's in Romo and Flacco. Flacco has a slightly better matchup on the road playing an indy team that allows fantasy QB's to score slightly above average points at that position. Romo is home to a Houston that holds fantasy QB's to about 10% below average production. There is very little statistical data to support one of these players significantly outperforming the other. FF today ranks Romo as the #13 QB start this week and Flacco as the #15 start, both at the top end of Tier 3.

 

So because you don't know who will score more points before you play, considering your opponents roster isn't a bad idea when your starting options are nearly equal. If I feel that my opponent has a particularly strong play at WR and one of my options is to play that WR's QB, I will factor this in to my decision on whom to start. It's a risk mitigation strategy. If his WR, who I can see has a good matchup goes off, my QB keeps pace. This is something I know BEFORE the game is played, barring a fluke injury of course. Again, I'm only doing this if I feel i really don't have much to gain by starting the other option I have at QB.

 

Cancel out is really a bad term for this strategy. In the end, if you start Romo and he throws every pass to Whiten and Williams, but Flacco scores more points than Romo it's a bad decision. What you are doing by starting Romo is mitigating the risk that Williams and/or Whiten have a big game thus carrying Romo along with them to some degree because you know prior to the game that if Williams/Whiten have big days, than Romo will have a portion of those points to help offset that.

 

So yes, start who you think scores the most is correct, but when your decision comes down to two very similar players, your opponents lineup can, in my opinion, be factored into the equation.

 

Agree with this 100%.

 

It's incredibly dumb to say "start who you think will score the most points." Well no sht, sherlock. This should only be used as a tiebreaker to hedge your bets if you are having trouble deciding between guys who you think will score around the same amount of points.

 

I started a similar thread a few years ago and it ended up working, so yes I am a fan of the "Cancel Out Theory" in the right situation. Although yes it should probably be renamed the "Risk Mitigation strategy" to avoid some of the trolls.

 

And I do think this situation is a possible use for it. Chances are Romo does "cancel out" the points scored by Witten and Williams.

 

Hypothetical:

Romo - 225 yards, 2 TD's 1 INT = 16 points

Witten - 70 yards = 7 points

Williams - 50 yards, 1 TD = 11 points

 

Remember, Romo also has Dez Bryant to throw to among others...

[Hawkfin 32]

I see these responses every year to "start the player you think will score the most points" This is perfectly logical only if you know WHO will score the most points. While you never truly know in some cases it's pretty obvious. For example, considering your opponents lineup should never come into play if you are selecting between someone like Drew Brees vs Tampa's pass defense or Romo vs Houston's Defense. In the majority of game scenarios that could play out, Brees is going to amass more points than Romo, so even if your opponent has Dez, Bryant, you aren't starting Romo over Brees because Brees is highly statistically likely to score more points than Romo this week. Now it may not work out that way but you almost have to assume it will.

 

However as the OP mentioned, he has two like QB's in Romo and Flacco. Flacco has a slightly better matchup on the road playing an indy team that allows fantasy QB's to score slightly above average points at that position. Romo is home to a Houston that holds fantasy QB's to about 10% below average production. There is very little statistical data to support one of these players significantly outperforming the other. FF today ranks Romo as the #13 QB start this week and Flacco as the #15 start, both at the top end of Tier 3.

 

So because you don't know who will score more points before you play, considering your opponents roster isn't a bad idea when your starting options are nearly equal. If I feel that my opponent has a particularly strong play at WR and one of my options is to play that WR's QB, I will factor this in to my decision on whom to start. It's a risk mitigation strategy. If his WR, who I can see has a good matchup goes off, my QB keeps pace. This is something I know BEFORE the game is played, barring a fluke injury of course. Again, I'm only doing this if I feel i really don't have much to gain by starting the other option I have at QB.

 

Cancel out is really a bad term for this strategy. In the end, if you start Romo and he throws every pass to Whiten and Williams, but Flacco scores more points than Romo it's a bad decision. What you are doing by starting Romo is mitigating the risk that Williams and/or Whiten have a big game thus carrying Romo along with them to some degree because you know prior to the game that if Williams/Whiten have big days, than Romo will have a portion of those points to help offset that.

 

So yes, start who you think scores the most is correct, but when your decision comes down to two very similar players, your opponents lineup can, in my opinion, be factored into the equation.

I tend to agree with this... I did it last week. A. Brown was by far his best player. I had P. Manning on bye. I picked up and started Roethless.

Brown went off - But, I got more out of Roethless even so. And I was right, Brown was his best player and I won as I matched up with his big day. I counted on the rest of my team to be better then his as it looked that way on paper.

 

That being said, I dropped Eli Manning for him. So in fact, I sat 35+ points for only 25+. BUT, I didn't have any clue (Or think) Eli would do that.

I don't mind my thought process and felt good about it. And even after the fact of what Eli did I feel good about it.

 

If you KNOW Flacco will do great against Colts go with the points. But, if you'r not sure I would go with the cancel out theory as long as you think Romo will be ok against Houston. Hard to say there?

Plus you can basically cancel out 2 for one really.

 

If this is non-ppr - it's a no brainer. PPR does actually maybe give him the advantage. But, i assume you have other studs for PPR too since you have late QB's drafted.

 

I don't agree with the guy that gave the stats about T. Williams getting 18 points to Romo's 8. That 8 points is ONLY being based off those stats thrown to T. Williams. Romo will also be adding other stats to the mix on top of that. (i.e. his best player D. Bryant)

In fact, if Romo has that big of a day out of T. Williams then Romo will be in for a huge week most likely.

 

On the flip - What if T. Williams gets those points - AND Flacco sucks. Now he's really screwed.

Flacco is no stud or lock for points.

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

Facepalm at the defenders. Spin it any way you want, its 9 numbers on a sheet vs his 9 numbers on a sheet. Nothing you do can control or mitigate his numbers. Demarco could run in 4tds, or Dez could catch them all, its completely random. Just hope your guys score more than his, FF is almost all luck. Theres no mitigation strategy.

 

In my first few years playing FF I used to think that starting the opponents qbs kicker would mitigate his points since I would get them if he scored a td or failed to. I was an idiot. But I could go in a 5 paragraph rant and make it sound like a viable strategy if I wanted. It isnt.

[jerryskids 5,204]

IMO the only time this strategy works is if you have a solid lead already and both of you are down to your last players. A hypothetical would be let's say SD and CHI are playing Monday night you are up by 15 points, you can play Rivers or Cutler and your opponent only has Brandon Marshall left. In that case, playing Cutler would probably be the smart choice because it would be very difficult for Marshall to outscore Cutler by 15 points.

I was going to post this exact scenario. IMO the opposite is true as well; if you are down 15 you would start Rivers and hope for a bad day from the Bears.

 

Of course this is only true for comparable options.

[Hawkfin 32]

Facepalm at the defenders. Spin it any way you want, its 9 numbers on a sheet vs his 9 numbers on a sheet. Nothing you do can control or mitigate his numbers. Demarco could run in 4tds, or Dez could catch them all, its completely random. Just hope your guys score more than his, FF is almost all luck. Theres no mitigation strategy.

 

In my first few years playing FF I used to think that starting the opponents qbs kicker would mitigate his points since I would get them if he scored a td or failed to. I was an idiot. But I could go in a 5 paragraph rant and make it sound like a viable strategy if I wanted. It isnt.

I think the odd's favor this theory though so I'll have to disagree. Sure, it's 9 vs 9 when it's all said and done. But, that's a simplistic view of looking at things. And why not draw staws out of a hat for your starting lineup then, why draft, why play F.F. at all ?

 

-IF Williams and Witten go off - Well then, So will Romo. (And chances are Flacco won't make that up - Where Romo does in fact)

-IF Williams and Witten both suck, and Romo sucks - Well then, you're all even, BUT he's lost two positon players to your 1.

-IF Dez Bryant goes off - Well, then Romo far beats his oponents guy's. Probably an easy win.

-IF Murrey runs everything in. Then see see #2. You're even again and he's lost 2 position players to 1.

(Chances are far greater Romo will have yardage stats to match worse case on any of these)

 

 

[SLM827 4]

I dropped Ebron last week when my opp had stafford and everyone projected Ebron to score. Thankfully jamaal scored 28 and I won. I believe it can be beneficial or against you depending on the match up. There is no exact science with this stuff as we all know. I sometimes wish projections wouldn't be made...they mind you.

[DaBeerz 88]

Facepalm at the defenders. Spin it any way you want, its 9 numbers on a sheet vs his 9 numbers on a sheet. Nothing you do can control or mitigate his numbers. Demarco could run in 4tds, or Dez could catch them all, its completely random. Just hope your guys score more than his, FF is almost all luck. Theres no mitigation strategy.

 

In my first few years playing FF I used to think that starting the opponents qbs kicker would mitigate his points since I would get them if he scored a td or failed to. I was an idiot. But I could go in a 5 paragraph rant and make it sound like a viable strategy if I wanted. It isnt.

 

Exactly. Start your best lineup, regardless of what your opponent has.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I think the odd's favor this theory though so I'll have to disagree. Sure, it's 9 vs 9 when it's all said and done. But, that's a simplistic view of looking at things. And why not draw staws out of a hat for your starting lineup then, why draft, why play F.F. at all ?

These are all highly valid questions.

 

-IF Williams and Witton go off - Well then, So will Romo. (And chances are Flacco won't make that up - Where Romo does in fact)

-IF Williams and Witton both suck, and Romo sucks - Well then, you're all even, BUT he's lost two positon players to your 1.

-IF Dez Bryant goes off - Well, then Romo far beats his oponents guy's. Probably an easy win.

-IF Murrey runs everything in. Then see see #2. You're even again and he's lost 2 position players to 1.

(Chances are far greater Romo will have yardage stats to match worse case on any of these)

This is all pointless drivel and fluff. If this and if that, if a monkey stole my hat. What if flacco throws for blah blah blah? What if Dez and romo blah blah? I could spin a million different ifs.

[Hawkfin 32]

These are all highly valid questions.

 

This is all pointless drivel and fluff. If this and if that, if a monkey stole my hat. What if flacco throws for blah blah blah? What if Dez and romo blah blah? I could spin a million different ifs.

Wow, you should just Quit F.F. - Give me half your entry league money - I'll kick you in the ass and we can call it a day!

 

I don't know why you even play if you think everything in F.F is luck. You must really be getting ur arse kicked this year.

 

One of those IF questions I listed will have to come true. They were not meant to be IF questions. One of those things will happen in that game. Other then Def scoring or no scoring in which case that falls under "they all suck option". But, he gains a player advantage.

 

I showed in every one of those options where having Romo vs Witten/Williams really does help curve the points if that's the route that makes sense. (i.e. - If his other players are better then the remaining players for his matchup)

 

Flacco on the other hand - Does nothing. It could be better, It could be worse. The Romo play curves the score because he can eliminate 2 guy's going off on him without a return. In a head vs head matchup this makes some sense.

 

I think it's pointless talking about it anymore though. You clearly have given up and just throwing whatever you have out there and calling everything luck.

GOOD LUCK to you!

[TimmySmith 2,782]

If there is a strategy to this, it is to start Flacco, because Romo is limited to roughly 55% of what they do whereas Flacco is not limited by them at all.

[Hawkfin 32]

If there is a strategy to this, it is to start Flacco, because Romo is limited to roughly 55% of what they do whereas Flacco is not limited by them at all.

That's another strategy too.... But, I assume he's got other really good players as Flacco/Romo should have been very late picks.

Both QB's are so so plays and should not be counted on for his major production. In this case, he can limit the Dallas crew he's facing though.

 

I'll take the oposite on that route and cancel out his only TE and WR I think as both my QB's are just average and who knows what they do any given week. Plus, I'd say Romo is the better option anyway on average. I'm sure he was drafted higher.

 

But, I agree to ur point. Depending on the matchup there could be a case made to go Flacco too. You may "NEED" to go the opposite and try and gain points for the win and root for a bad Dallas day, to take advantage.

 

That to me would mean his roster is serverely weaker though and he thinks he'll lose with everybody else.

 

[TimHauck 1,799]

Facepalm at the defenders. Spin it any way you want, its 9 numbers on a sheet vs his 9 numbers on a sheet. Nothing you do can control or mitigate his numbers. Demarco could run in 4tds, or Dez could catch them all, its completely random. Just hope your guys score more than his, FF is almost all luck. Theres no mitigation strategy.

 

In my first few years playing FF I used to think that starting the opponents qbs kicker would mitigate his points since I would get them if he scored a td or failed to. I was an idiot. But I could go in a 5 paragraph rant and make it sound like a viable strategy if I wanted. It isnt.

 

 

LOL you really don't understand how it's mitigating risk?

 

Yes I'm going to throw some more if's at you but if he starts Flacco, the worst case scenario is Flacco sucks and Williams and Witten go off (certainly possible). Then he's in the hole 40 or so points (say 0 for Flacco, 20 each for Williams/Witten).

 

The only possible way that could happen if he starts Romo is Romo gets hurt early in the game and Brandon Weeden comes in to throw 4 TD's to Williams and Witten. But there's about a 0.5% chance of that happening.

 

Most likely, one of the scenarios that Hawkfin posted will happen which mitigates the risk of having my previously described worst case scenario happen, and most likely his 1 player will score about the same amount of points as his opponent's 2 players.

[Law 220]

Facepalm at the defenders. Spin it any way you want, its 9 numbers on a sheet vs his 9 numbers on a sheet. Nothing you do can control or mitigate his numbers. Demarco could run in 4tds, or Dez could catch them all, its completely random. Just hope your guys score more than his, FF is almost all luck. Theres no mitigation strategy.

 

In my first few years playing FF I used to think that starting the opponents qbs kicker would mitigate his points since I would get them if he scored a td or failed to. I was an idiot. But I could go in a 5 paragraph rant and make it sound like a viable strategy if I wanted. It isnt.

 

We've all discussed this before, but I don't believe FF is all luck. I've said many times (and should apply for a copyright) that it takes skill to get to the playoffs, but luck to win them. I say it takes skill because I make the playoffs in the vast majority of my league - likely 75% or better. That can't be luck. But I don't win them all, or even win at 75% clip. Why? Because the skill of drafting well, managing byes, drop/adds, and the rest gets you to the playoffs. In the playoffs, it's all a one week, do or die scenario and if ONE guy (Charles) scores like 5 TDs, you're toast. That's the luck aspect of it. The best teams can lose in the playoffs. I lost as a #1 seed to the #6 seed who started Tebow! Tebow killed it. Killed me. Bad luck.

 

FF is like gambling. There is some luck involved, but a skilled player will win more often that one who is not skilled.

 

But cancelling out theory is total bunk!

[FeelingMN 273]

I tend to agree with this... I did it last week. A. Brown was by far his best player. I had P. Manning on bye. I picked up and started Roethless.

Brown went off - But, I got more out of Roethless even so. And I was right, Brown was his best player and I won as I matched up with his big day. I counted on the rest of my team to be better then his as it looked that way on paper.

That being said, I dropped Eli Manning for him. So in fact, I sat 35+ points for only 25+. BUT, I didn't have any clue (Or think) Eli would do that.

I don't mind my thought process and felt good about it. And even after the fact of what Eli did I feel good about it.

If you KNOW Flacco will do great against Colts go with the points. But, if you'r not sure I would go with the cancel out theory as long as you think Romo will be ok against Houston. Hard to say there?

Plus you can basically cancel out 2 for one really.

If this is non-ppr - it's a no brainer. PPR does actually maybe give him the advantage. But, i assume you have other studs for PPR too since you have late QB's drafted.

I don't agree with the guy that gave the stats about T. Williams getting 18 points to Romo's 8. That 8 points is ONLY being based off those stats thrown to T. Williams. Romo will also be adding other stats to the mix on top of that. (i.e. his best player D. Bryant)

In fact, if Romo has that big of a day out of T. Williams then Romo will be in for a huge week most likely.

On the flip - What if T. Williams gets those points - AND Flacco sucks. Now he's really screwed.

Flacco is no stud or lock for points.

 

You picked up Ben because he had a good matchup. Simple as that. If PIT were playing SEA, you wouldn't have worried about Brown in the least. I think you're making an attribution error.

 

Personally, I'd go Romo for the simple fact that he's at home. But odds are Flacco and Romo are gonna deliver similar stat lines. You'll drive yourself crazy trying to predict exact outcomes. Just think it over a bit....put it on the back burner for a couple days....revisit the issue Saturday and go with your gut.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

We've all discussed this before, but I don't believe FF is all luck. I've said many times (and should apply for a copyright) that it takes skill to get to the playoffs, but luck to win them. I say it takes skill because I make the playoffs in the vast majority of my league - likely 75% or better. That can't be luck. But I don't win them all, or even win at 75% clip. Why? Because the skill of drafting well, managing byes, drop/adds, and the rest gets you to the playoffs. In the playoffs, it's all a one week, do or die scenario and if ONE guy (Charles) scores like 5 TDs, you're toast. That's the luck aspect of it. The best teams can lose in the playoffs. I lost as a #1 seed to the #6 seed who started Tebow! Tebow killed it. Killed me. Bad luck.

 

FF is like gambling. There is some luck involved, but a skilled player will win more often that one who is not skilled.

 

But cancelling out theory is total bunk!

Ill concede that. Having a nice season is attributed to free agent pickups, starts/sits etc so ill agree. But actually winning a playoff game or championship game is near 99% luck.

 

Funny, thats the year I would have won it all if I HAD started Tebow that week.

[TimHauck 1,799]

But odds are Flacco and Romo are gonna deliver similar stat lines. You'll drive yourself crazy trying to predict exact outcomes.

 

This is pretty much exactly what this idea solves. You're not sure who to start BECAUSE YOU THINK THEY WILL SCORE A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF POINTS (emphasis not really for you MN), so if you "cancel out" your opponents receivers with your QB, you can rest at least a little easier knowing that your 1 player will most likely score a similar amount of points as your opponent's 2 players.

[BlackPlague 1]

I am now dumber for having read this train wreck of a thread. May god have mercy on my soul.

 

Start who you guess will score the most points. That is all.

[FeelingMN 273]

This is pretty much exactly what this idea solves. You're not sure who to start BECAUSE YOU THINK THEY WILL SCORE A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF POINTS (emphasis not really for you MN), so if you "cancel out" your opponents receivers with your QB, you can rest at least a little easier knowing that your 1 player will most likely score a similar amount of points as your opponent's 2 players.

I hear what you're saying. Personally.....I'd be happy if my QB were canceling out two of his players....say DT and Shady. But if my QB is only negating his Witten and Williams....well, there's always next week.

 

I guess that works if the rest of his team is super strong compared to his opponents. But if the other guy is starting Brees, then he's probably taking out a couple of your guys too.

 

If everything else is equal....like HOU passD vs. INDY passD....then I'd go with the QB of my opponent's receivers. But I'd do a little more digging other than just looking at who I'm playing against.

[kujerry 9]

Wow I was going to start this topic. I currently have stafford starting, but thought about going with cutler because my opponent has B. MARSH. at least I could cancle is td production.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Wow I was going to start this topic. I currently have stafford starting, but thought about going with cutler because my opponent has B. MARSH. at least I could cancle is td production.

If Cutler scores 20 and stafford scores 21, what exactly did you cancel out? dont even look at your opponents lineup, just set your own based on your best opinion or knowledge.

[Serpent 51]

 

We've all discussed this before, but I don't believe FF is all luck. I've said many times (and should apply for a copyright) that it takes skill to get to the playoffs, but luck to win them. I say it takes skill because I make the playoffs in the vast majority of my league - likely 75% or better. That can't be luck. But I don't win them all, or even win at 75% clip. Why? Because the skill of drafting well, managing byes, drop/adds, and the rest gets you to the playoffs. In the playoffs, it's all a one week, do or die scenario and if ONE guy (Charles) scores like 5 TDs, you're toast. That's the luck aspect of it. The best teams can lose in the playoffs. I lost as a #1 seed to the #6 seed who started Tebow! Tebow killed it. Killed me. Bad luck.

 

FF is like gambling. There is some luck involved, but a skilled player will win more often that one who is not skilled.

 

But cancelling out theory is total bunk!

 

The short answer is play against better people.

 

If you have a league of fantasy owners that all cares and knows what they're doing, it's completely luck. There isn't that much skill, it's a low soft cap. It's like saying "well if I know how to read I have a huge advantage over all the other applicants for this job." The problem is pretty much everybody knows how to read. Now if you're applying to a job like ditch digging or something, maybe people don't know how to read for it, but really you should aim higher.

 

I'm ordinarily very dismissive of "experts" because I don't really believe in such a thing for FF. But if you look at the "experts" leagues it's all random year to year.

 

A lot of times on here I see people talk about a "hot waiver wire" pickup. Well in my competitive leagues those players are pretty much always rostered, or you have a puny chance of actually getting them based on waivers because everyone with a higher waiver wire will probably want them too. If you want an unknown player it means taking a shot in the dark in advance, and even then you might not have a shot at them because someone else had the same idea.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

If you have a league of fantasy owners that all cares and knows what they're doing, it's completely luck. There isn't that much skill, it's a low soft cap. It's like saying "well if I know how to read I have a huge advantage over all the other applicants for this job." The problem is pretty much everybody knows how to read. Now if you're applying to a job like ditch digging or something, maybe people don't know how to read for it, but really you should aim higher.

 

This is a nice analogy, I like it. When the field is even, and its easy to be even, it lowers the skill cap. Heck, even the resident moron in my 10yr money league who took MJD in rnd 3 this year and always makes terrible picks is a perennial playoff contender and has won 2 times compared to my none.

[TimHauck 1,799]

I am now dumber for having read this train wreck of a thread. May god have mercy on my soul.

 

Start who you guess will score the most points. That is all.

 

Yeah might as well shut down the message board.

 

Who should I draft? Whoever you think will score the most points.

 

Is this guy droppable? If you think someone on the WW will score more points.

 

Who should I pick up from the WW? Whoever you think will score the most points.

 

Who knew FF was so simple.