Would you have sent Gordon?

[vuduchile 1,941]

Of course I'm a gambler, but given how hard it was to hit Bumgarner, I would've take a shot there.

 

 

[KSB2424 3,082]

Hindsight is 20/20. Now that we know the next guy pops out its easy to say. But the ball was already to the cut off man by the time Gordon got to 3rd base. He is gunned down 98% of the time in the MLB in that situation.

[Cruzer 1,992]

No - he would of been nailed. Even a not-so-perfect throw would of been enough - plus Gordon was gassed.

[vuduchile 1,941]

Hindsight is 20/20. Now that we know the next guy pops out its easy to say. But the ball was already to the cut off man by the time Gordon got to 3rd base. He is gunned down 98% of the time in the MLB in that situation.

I dunno. Check this out. Crawford was pretty deep in the outfield when he got the ball. As I said though, I tend to wanna take a chance in those scenarios. Hard to argue for or against it.

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/royals-explain-why-didnt-inside-134933336.html;_ylt=A0LEVzYMhVJU4roAFCBXNyoA

[SUXBNME 1,324]

Hindsight is 20/20. Now that we know the next guy pops out its easy to say. But the ball was already to the cut off man by the time Gordon got to 3rd base. He is gunned down 98% of the time in the MLB in that situation.

This.

[posty 2,296]

No, he would have been out by a long shot...

[Bier Meister 1,513]

i think the call was to send him, even knowing there was a strong liklihood that he would be out. i see a higher probabilty of an inaccurate throw (or even bad bounce, or catcher not grabbing it cleanly) than trying to get that knock off of bum. he pitched a series for the ages.

[vuduchile 1,941]

i think the call was to send him, even knowing there was a strong liklihood that he would be out. i see a higher probabilty of an inaccurate throw (or even bad bounce, or catcher not grabbing it cleanly) than trying to get that knock off of bum. he pitched a series for the ages.

Playing conservatively is usually the way to go. Get a base runner, move him to scoring position, yada yada. Can't fault those who say he'd have been thrown out.

 

But, this kid was still pitching lights out. His ERA for the series over his 52+ innings was 1.03. I'll take my chances with the ball in Crawford's hand instead of Bumgarner's there.

 

Win or lose, how thrilling would it have been to wave him around with the series on the line right then? That's a once in a lifetime opportunity.

 

Instead, they play the percentages and are rewarded in kind.

[Bier Meister 1,513]

like the giants, the royals are a team that know how to generate runs. i do not think he would have been safe at the plate, but crazy things happen on those plays.

[Sho Nuff 719]

Hindsight is 20/20. Now that we know the next guy pops out its easy to say. But the ball was already to the cut off man by the time Gordon got to 3rd base. He is gunned down 98% of the time in the MLB in that situation.

 

Hindsight is 20/20. Now that we know the next guy pops out its easy to say. But the ball was already to the cut off man by the time Gordon got to 3rd base. He is gunned down 98% of the time in the MLB in that situation.

 

Not sure about 98% of the time...still have to make the guy make a good throw, and the catch and tag.

I would have probably had him round it bigger and force a throw in from the outfield.

[bandrus1 413]

I say make the other team make the play.. always put the pressure on the other guys and not on your guy to make a play

[KSB2424 3,082]

This isn't weekend softball where you keep running until they throw you out.

[paulinstl 295]

Really people? Gordon was leaking oil, Crawford has a cannon and he had the ball in his glove before Gordon could round third. He was a dead duck.

[DankNuggs 305]

100%. That was a Bill Buckner x10 moment that was taken away

[parrot 789]

Really people? Gordon was leaking oil, Crawford has a cannon and he had the ball in his glove before Gordon could round third. He was a dead duck.

 

 

He would have been out by ten feet. The only chance would have been if Posey had had a flashback to getting his leg broken and rolled up in a ball.

[edjr 5,556]

No.

 

Smarten up

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Based on real odds, yes. If he had a 15% chance of making it, that is still higher than the chance of a hit.

[patweisers44 697]

Based on real odds, yes. If he had a 15% chance of making it, that is still higher than the chance of a hit.

A wild pitch, error, etc scores him so its probably more like 30%, but he was out 90+% of the time easily. if I am on deck and he gets gunned out at home, I kill the third base coach.

 

Would be a great ending to the WS though, guy gunned out at home.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

A wild pitch, error, etc scores him so its probably more like 30%, but he was out 90+% of the time easily. if I am on deck and he gets gunned out at home, I kill the third base coach.

 

Would be a great ending to the WS though, guy gunned out at home.

I disagree with your 30% even with an error or WP thrown in. Bumgarner was untouchable, 74 batters faced, 10 reached = .135 OBP. I feel the odds of making it were higher. There would have been a great deal of pressure on the fielder.

[KSB2424 3,082]

Based on real odds, yes. If he had a 15% chance of making it, that is still higher than the chance of a hit.

 

You think he had a 15% chance of being safe at home in that situation? Maybe in your softball league but a MLB team makes that play 95% of the time. If not more. It wasn't going to be a throw to home from the outfield, the infielder took the cut off. He gets hosed by a country mile 19 out of 20 times.

[KSB2424 3,082]

Also in any higher form of baseball you never, ever want to end an inning on a baserunning mistake. That's baseball 101. I don't care who's pitching.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Although I agree Bumgarner was in super-human zone, he wasn't all that unhittable - Gordon just did it. You'd no more send a runner already on 3rd for a routine pop up to the same location the relay throw would of come from than you would of sent Gordon there. As high as the odds were that Bumgarner would of gotten the next batter, the odds were higher the relay throw would of had him out by 10 feet.

[patweisers44 697]

I disagree with your 30% even with an error or WP thrown in. Bumgarner was untouchable, 74 batters faced, 10 reached = .135 OBP. I feel the odds of making it were higher. There would have been a great deal of pressure on the fielder.

If he was untouchable, why is this even a debate. Gordon just touched him.

 

Whatever the percentage is, the chances of him scoring on his hit were way lower.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

 

You think he had a 15% chance of being safe at home in that situation? Maybe in your softball league but a MLB team makes that play 95% of the time. If not more. It wasn't going to be a throw to home from the outfield, the infielder took the cut off. He gets hosed by a country mile 19 out of 20 times.

I don't know what replay you are watching? Gordon would have been hitting 3rd in stride at the exact moment the throw reached the cutoff man (in short-med left), who was fielding a short hop. It would have taken a very good throw. That is a 70-80% play. The 20-30% left is well above the batting average of any batter against Bumgarner.

[KSB2424 3,082]

Gordon would have been hitting 3rd in stride (while gassed) at a moment just after the throw reached the cutoff man (in short left),

 

Exactly. It's like a guy trying to tag up on a pop up to deep shortstop or short left field. How many times to do you see guys tag up in those situations? None. Why? Because they get gunned down 95% of the time.

 

This is the MLB, not little league.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

 

Exactly. It's like a guy trying to tag up on a pop up to deep shortstop or short left field. How many times to do you see guys tag up in those situations? None. Why? Because they get gunned down 95% of the time.

 

This is the MLB, not little league.

Nothing like a pop-up. The infielder had his back to the infield and was fielding a short-hop below the waist. Barry Bonds was a Gold Glover and could not gun down the glacially gifted Sid Bream from nearly same distance and Bonds was running in. Sid Bream is best example in history of why you send the runner.

[KSB2424 3,082]

Nothing like a pop-up. The infielder had his back to the infield and was fielding a short-hop below the waist. Barry Bonds was a Gold Glover and could not gun down the glacially gifted Sid Bream from nearly same distance and Bonds was running in. Sid Bream is best example in history of why you send the runner.

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree obviously. I just looked on youtube at the Sid Bream play and he was A. coming from second and b. rounding third after Bonds picked the ball and Bonds was further back. And Sid barely beat the play.

 

Gordon was gassed as he started from home not second base. Did you see him running? The cut off man was closer to the infield than was Bonds and received the ball sooner. Hosed.

[posty 2,296]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/30/alex-gordon-would-have-been-a-dead-duck-had-he-tried-to-score/

 

Bottom picture, Crawford already had the ball in his glove and Gordon, if given the green light, could have been maybe two steps (at most) past third...

 

DOA

[Cruzer 1,992]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/30/alex-gordon-would-have-been-a-dead-duck-had-he-tried-to-score/

 

Bottom picture, Crawford already had the ball in his glove and Gordon, if given the green light, could have been maybe two steps (at most) past third...

 

DOA

Can you imagine having to look your team in the eyes (and your fans) and explain why you killed any chance you had of winning a WS by having Gordon thrown out by 15 feet? The catcher literally would of had to wait a second for him to get to the plate.