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Fumbleweed

**Round One & Two Commentary**

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its a good debate for sure. and while there are plenty of times where I have reached half a round for a player because I was high on him and knew there was no chance in him making it back to me, i've never done so with a QB and not sure I could do so with the #1 overall pick. I think if I had pick 1 and really liked Luck and no trades were allowed I would reason with myself that I could probably get QB 3 or 4 on my list at the next turn and not be much worse off at the position yet probably be much better off at another position.

 

FF game theory at its finest, for sure.

 

I agree with Vikes that at the very least its an extremely safe selection which is funny given that its also out of the box thinking, which in most areas of life is rarely the "safe" play

 

Definitely makes for a good discussion if anything.

 

I did the same evaluation looking at the ppg drop compared to the next QB I could reasonably expect to get and this is where we differ. I project Luck to be 5-6ppg over QB#3. And if I didn't take Luck in the first I probably wouldn't go QB until the 4/5 turn, so realistically I'd be looking at the 5th/6th QB. And that would be 6-7ppg. That's a bigger gap than the RB drop I expect if I had taken AP.

 

Yeah, funny isn't it. It's the June Mock Paradox :ahso:

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Definitely makes for a good discussion if anything.

 

I did the same evaluation looking at the ppg drop compared to the next QB I could reasonably expect to get and this is where we differ. I project Luck to be 5-6ppg over QB#3. And if I didn't take Luck in the first I probably wouldn't go QB until the 4/5 turn, so realistically I'd be looking at the 5th/6th QB. And that would be 6-7ppg. That's a bigger gap than the RB drop I expect if I had taken AP.

 

Yeah, funny isn't it. It's the June Mock Paradox :ahso:

 

yeah we do disagree on the PPG. I don't expect Luck to be much more than 3ppg better than QB #3 and thats assuming Luck ends up as QB1 in the first place. And I wouldnt expect him to be much more than 5 ppg over the QBs available at the 4/5 turn.

 

we shall find out.

 

then again, Luck is one of the reasons I won this thing 2? years ago... so Luck all day baby!

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So does Fumble have V4E's picks, or not?

 

ICEMAN

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So does Fumble have V4E's picks, or not?

 

ICEMAN

 

Yes, but Fumble is playing golf so he may only be able to view (hence his name in the online list) until he can get to a spot where he can post (between holes).

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I would have questioned the AD pick at 1. He might be motivated but he still has plenty to deal with this year, and added to it with his post child beating actions and rants.

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I would have questioned the AD pick at 1. He might be motivated but he still has plenty to deal with this year, and added to it with his post child beating actions and rants.

 

Valid point. I'll expand on (my opinion) once a few more picks are in the books.

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I would have questioned the AD pick at 1. He might be motivated but he still has plenty to deal with this year, and added to it with his post child beating actions and rants.

 

Agree.

 

I think AD at 1.04 may even be a little high. Right now the guy is a mess, and I am waiting to see how his is going to emotionally and mentally handle pre-season, he scares me.

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Bell....... I am surprised ne lasted to me at #6, but pleased! This will change my plans somewhat as I had another choice ready BUT I couldn't pass Bell up.

 

I know he is suspended for the first 3 games, but I can hope it gets reduced. If not, I'll get by for 3 games and make up for it at the end of the season!

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well 7 is a tough spot. i was hoping for Peterson or Lacy but at least Robb took Bell so i didn't have to make that choice. I dont think his suspension gets reduced and even though its a BB format, i'd rather have McCoy playing for Rex, even in a division with some tough front 7's

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McCoy at 1.07 is nice value, hopefully he plays p!ssed off and really kils it this year :thumbsup:

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Forte isn't a sexy pick, but just a rock-solid high level producer. He is about as can't miss as there is.

 

ICEMAN

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Kind of surprised to get Lacy with my pick.

 

My thoughts are that he doesn't have the upside the rest of the early RBs do, but I also think he is the least likely to out and out bust.

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Kind of surprised to get Lacy with my pick.

 

My thoughts are that he doesn't have the upside the rest of the early RBs do, but I also think he is the least likely to out and out bust.

 

I think it speaks to the lack of a real standout in the top round, in years past it was certainly a script, i do not get that sense about this year....yet...

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I think it speaks to the lack of a real standout in the top round, in years past it was certainly a script, i do not get that sense about this year....yet...

Yea, I remember the 1st round "script" did not change much last year from our draft to August. But I have a feeling this year will be a bit different.

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Kind of surprised to get Lacy with my pick.

 

My thoughts are that he doesn't have the upside the rest of the early RBs do, but I also think he is the least likely to out and out bust.

You got a steal!!!

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I think it speaks to the lack of a real standout in the top round, in years past it was certainly a script, i do not get that sense about this year....yet...

Lacy was in the script....easily!

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Lacy is definitely in the top tier of RBs, but hardly a steal. Think you have the homer glasses dialed in a little bit my friend. ;)

 

This leads into one of the deciding factors for me taking Luck instead of going RB. As mentioned, none in the top tier stand out and all have some question mark for me...

 

AD - Year off, good system, has shown he can do it before BUT the whole off-season drama could carry into the season

Lacy - Solid, young, in a great offense BUT that offense limits his touches. It's the volume compared to other top tier RBs that keeps him from standing out.

Charles - Focal point of the offense BUT big fall off in TDs and yards last season and KC added a new WR and has an up and coming TE.

Forte - Tons of receiving yards, 3-down back BUT his TD totals are relatively lower than other RBs in the tier

Bell - 3-down back, very good offense BUT the suspension will be a big dent in his numbers, which keeps him from separating from the others

Lynch - Run first offense, good TD numbers BUT his lack of receiving yards holds him back some compared to the others

McCoy - Expected focal point in Buffalo BUT new team and offensive system so will he meet expectations

 

There's at least one thing that keeps any of these RBs from separating themselves to be the clear #1. Any of them could lead the league as the top RB and any could finish 7th. So I decided to take who I feel will be the sure fire #1 QB (only #2 threatens him) as opposed to flipping a coin on 7 different/equal RBs.

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The G-forces in this mock are making me light-headed

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1566 total yards last season with 42 receptions for 427 yards. 9 rushing TD's and 4 through the air.

....and the receptions basically began after week 4 if I recall.

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Forte isn't a sexy pick, but just a rock-solid high level producer. He is about as can't miss as there is.

 

ICEMAN

 

i looked at forte when i ultimately took McCoy. in the end, i expect both their reception (i know this isnt PPR) totals to go down and with it their receiving yardage. However, I think Forte sees the more drastic decline in that area. then factor in age and that i feel Shady is more talented overall and thats why I took McCoy. Forte was next on my list.

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....and the receptions basically began after week 4 if I recall.

True but 240 carries, right? Something in that range when others are getting 290ish. Roughly 2+ games less.

 

I'm not knocking him. The offense just limits his touches compared to other RBs that's all. And he averaged 2ppg less than the other RBs last season, except Charles.

 

 

So given his lack of volume relatively speaking, it's a testament to his performance. If he approaches 290 carries he's the clear cut #1.

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Lacy is definitely in the top tier of RBs, but hardly a steal. Think you have the homer glasses dialed in a little bit my friend. ;)

 

This leads into one of the deciding factors for me taking Luck instead of going RB. As mentioned, none in the top tier stand out and all have some question mark for me...

 

AD - Year off, good system, has shown he can do it before BUT the whole off-season drama could carry into the season

Lacy - Solid, young, in a great offense BUT that offense limits his touches. It's the volume compared to other top tier RBs that keeps him from standing out.

Charles - Focal point of the offense BUT big fall off in TDs and yards last season and KC added a new WR and has an up and coming TE.

Forte - Tons of receiving yards, 3-down back BUT his TD totals are relatively lower than other RBs in the tier

Bell - 3-down back, very good offense BUT the suspension will be a big dent in his numbers, which keeps him from separating from the others

Lynch - Run first offense, good TD numbers BUT his lack of receiving yards holds him back some compared to the others

McCoy - Expected focal point in Buffalo BUT new team and offensive system so will he meet expectations

 

There's at least one thing that keeps any of these RBs from separating themselves to be the clear #1. Any of them could lead the league as the top RB and any could finish 7th. So I decided to take who I feel will be the sure fire #1 QB (only #2 threatens him) as opposed to flipping a coin on 7 different/equal RBs.

 

while you are correct on your assessments of the RB's, in a standard redraft, that RB pool dries up quickly. MUCH much quicker than the QB pool. So while I won't argue with Luck being the clear cut top QB (though I think its at least debatable), I'll go back to what i've said most of my years playing this game. QB (and TE) are just not premium positions when you only start 1. Especially QB, which is very very deep. Therefore, I can never bring myself to pay a premium pick for a non premium position. when you have to start 2+ RB's and 3+ WR's in most leagues, i believe the premium shifts in that direction especially with RB in todays NFL where there are so few true workhorse backs. \

 

in short, I don't mind choosing between a stable of interchangeable tier 1 RB's as long as it means I own a tier 1 RB and can worry a little less about the position later on.

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Whoa now...Gronk at 1.09 is a smidge of a reach IMHO, you need to splain that one my man....

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Forte was the last of that tier for me, and so I found myself with multiple options. Going with Gronk locks down a position, though, and makes the most of the first round pick.

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i looked at forte when i ultimately took McCoy. in the end, i expect both their reception (i know this isnt PPR) totals to go down and with it their receiving yardage. However, I think Forte sees the more drastic decline in that area. then factor in age and that i feel Shady is more talented overall and thats why I took McCoy. Forte was next on my list.

 

My fear in drafting McCoy this year stems from Buffalo's O-Line.

 

ICEMAN

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Splaining? On the #1 TE by far? Come now. There are options I like as much, but at deeper positions. It's a no-brainer, especially with the Patriots looking to score 35 a game to make up for that sorry secondary.

 

Side note: Taking my wife to a movie and dinner for her birthday. If it comes back to me during that time, 207-319-0004 - text me; I will not answer the phone if you call. :)

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True but 240 carries, right? Something in that range when others are getting 290ish. Roughly 2+ games less.

 

I'm not knocking him. The offense just limits his touches compared to other RBs that's all. And he averaged 2ppg less than the other RBs last season, except Charles.

 

 

So given his lack of volume relatively speaking, it's a testament to his performance. If he approaches 290 carries he's the clear cut #1.

1566 total yards last season with 42 receptions for 427 yards. 9 rushing TD's and 4 through the air. 290 touches

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My fear in drafting McCoy this year stems from Buffalo's O-Line.

 

ICEMAN

 

those situations change rapidly. wasn't too long ago chicago had one of the worst lines in the NFL. i don't disagree regarding buffalo's line but they did make some subtle moves and i think the addition of and maturation of certain offensive weapons will help keep the box clear.

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1566 total yards last season with 42 receptions for 427 yards. 9 rushing TD's and 4 through the air. 290 touches

 

Lynch had similar receiving numbers too, but had 35 more carries (not touches).

 

The point is how do you feel this separates Lacy from the others that it would make him a "steal". It doesn't. His lower carry totals keeps him right with the rest in that pack in the top tier.

 

If his carries go up to the 280-290 range then I think he'd separate himself.

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Splaining? On the #1 TE by far? Come now. There are options I like as much, but at deeper positions. It's a no-brainer, especially with the Patriots looking to score 35 a game to make up for that sorry secondary.

 

Side note: Taking my wife to a movie and dinner for her birthday. If it comes back to me during that time, 207-319-0004 - text me; I will not answer the phone if you call. :)

 

I get that for sure, but you passed over at least four other players who will score more points to get him, not sure....just not sure.....

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1.11 - WR Dez Bryant, DAL

 

I place his ADP value at about 1.08 to 1.10 at this time. From a value assessment it was suitable, but did also measure him against others near his tier. Ultimately it came down to likely production, and over the season I expect his QB to remain standing behind that beastly O line and give his QB plenty of time and opportunity to make some plays to him as well. his TD's have been steadily increasing. The rub being that only Whitten legitimately draws attention away from him, and the running game will need to be good to help him keep up the solid numbers too.

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I get that for sure, but you passed over at least four other players who will score more points to get him, not sure....just not sure.....

 

I understand that line of thinking. Hey, believe me, the Steelers' fan in me wanted Antonio . . . but from a VBD standpoint, which is the avenue I opted for here, Gronk fits the bill better.

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JScott knows homer glasses that's for sure!

:thumbsup:

Lacy with the fifth pick might not happen in another draft this year. :dunno:

Excluding the IBL, of course. ;)

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I hoped I would be grabbing Luck, and one of these two here. I know the Wr's are gonna fly but I can still secure me a nice tandem, and the youngsters are really aided by the new NFL and it's tendencies as far as passing is concerned. Best two backs available and C.J. led the NFL his last six weeks. I feel they try to run more early this year. Murray is going to go North South and not dance like McCoy. He won't hav eht line but his coach will have the scheme that gives him room.

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2.02 - WR Demaryius Thomas, Den

 

I will say that in years past this was easier, I found that I had to really reach down deep to differentiate between available players in the 1.11 to 2.02 range.

 

Taking Bryant at 1.11 was a little less effort than trying to decide between the three legitimate 2.02 picks i saw as available. If Manning's health were not such a concern for me Thomas would be so very easy to select. I expect he likely starts well with solid numbers and falls off hard later in the year

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Walking out the door momentarily . . . If shovel doesn't pick right away, who wants my picks?

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2.02 - WR Demaryius Thomas, Den

 

I will say that in years past this was easier, I found that I had to really reach down deep to differentiate between available players in the 1.11 to 2.02 range.

 

Taking Bryant at 1.11 was a little less effort than trying to decide between the three legitimate 2.02 picks i saw as available. If Manning's health were not such a concern for me Thomas would be so very easy to select. I expect he likely starts well with solid numbers and falls off hard later in the year

That was my thinking on CJ. I also feel they ride him more early to save the arm then he has to carry them late. Thomas and Dez were involved in the conversation on this corner along with one.....maybe another to be mentioned soon.

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