Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Fumbleweed

**Round Six-Nine Commentary**

Recommended Posts

There are plenty of great QB choices .....right now......I just don't know how that would look at the bottom of round 7. I had Brees and Cam in sight and was gonna take the one Ray left. I like to match up my qb with my wr's so those two fit the bill. I liked the Big Ben pick earlier as I feel he is poised for another big season. I'm hoping cam can take it back up a notch this year and they did give him some additional Wr help.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are plenty of great QB choices .....right now......I just don't know how that would look at the bottom of round 7. I had Brees and Cam in sight and was gonna take the one Ray left. I like to match up my qb with my wr's so those two fit the bill. I liked the Big Ben pick earlier as I feel he is poised for another big season. I'm hoping cam can take it back up a notch this year and they did give him some additional Wr help.

 

Agree. If you wait on QB until this round or later even, you really aren't getting that much less in production. Whereas the difference between a RB/TE/WR you might pass on in early rounds vs what you find here is stark. The rub being that you have to really dial in to just how long to wait. You may even have to violate ADP to avoid the precipitous drop that will happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree. If you wait on QB until this round or later even, you really aren't getting that much less in production. Whereas the difference between a RB/TE/WR you might pass on in early rounds vs what you find here is stark. The rub being that you have to really dial in to just how long to wait. You may even have to violate ADP to avoid the precipitous drop that will happen.

Ryan and Cam were -5ppg compared to Luck last season. Ellington was -3ppg compared to Lacy & Charles. Rashad Jennings -4ppg compared.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ryan and Cam were -5ppg compared to Luck last season. Ellington was -3ppg compared to Lacy & Charles. Rashad Jennings -4ppg compared.

 

:thumbsup: Good stuff. Thanks for posting, this kind of eval always intrigues me, I think last year is always a good place to work from when predicting the coming year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So positional scoring wise a wash???? I see Luck as a can't miss unless hurt prospect. You gained on his end then have to hope the two backs stay healthy and produce like last season. Risk reward on taking the QB and I feel Luck was the top choice in the draft. I wonder what the math wouild show for taking a rb/wr in rounds 2 and 3??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So positional scoring wise a wash???? I see Luck as a can't miss unless hurt prospect. You gained on his end then have to hope the two backs stay healthy and produce like last season. Risk reward on taking the QB and I feel Luck was the top choice in the draft. I wonder what the math wouild show for taking a rb/wr in rounds 2 and 3??

 

And, to take this discussion a step further......what about the tight ends being taken? I will admit I am not a fan of taking a TE early, so for those who did (other than Gronk, I get that one) please convince me why you selected them prior to this round.

 

I am always looking to learn from others, and you all are the "cream of the crop" on this Board, so I am ready to learn!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:thumbsup: Good stuff. Thanks for posting, this kind of eval always intrigues me, I think last year is always a good place to work from when predicting the coming year.

Just one example. And certainly doesn't show a pattern or anything but I think a lot of people feel the same way you do (I certainly did right up until I dug into Luck's numbers) and in some cases it's just accepted but in reality it's not as sure of a thing as we all believed.

 

Now there will certainly be the RB or two each season that top the rest. 2014 Murray for example, compared to Ellington/Jennings was +7ppg. So we'd say, see the drop from the top RB to a 5th/6th round RB is more than that compared to QBs. However, predicting which of the 7 r 8 RBs will be that +7ppg one is a lot harder than predicting which QB will be +5ppg. And that's the main reason I went Luck 1.01.

 

Couldn't really illustrate it until we got to this point and certain QBs/RBs were picked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just one example. And certainly doesn't show a pattern or anything but I think a lot of people feel the same way you do (I certainly did right up until I dug into Luck's numbers) and in some cases it's just accepted but in reality it's not as sure of a thing as we all believed.

 

Now there will certainly be the RB or two each season that top the rest. 2014 Murray for example, compared to Ellington/Jennings was +7ppg. So we'd say, see the drop from the top RB to a 5th/6th round RB is more than that compared to QBs. However, predicting which of the 7 r 8 RBs will be that +7ppg one is a lot harder than predicting which QB will be +5ppg. And that's the main reason I went Luck 1.01.

 

Couldn't really illustrate it until we got to this point and certain QBs/RBs were picked.

 

I would like to see a comparison year after year as well. To me one season paints an interesting snapshot, but the real meat is watching the ongoing flow. And then looking at the draft and free agency to attempt to give the look real value going forward. The facets that led to the individuals scoring in the past may find relevancy if we can isolate them in the future to specific players.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ryan and Cam were -5ppg compared to Luck last season. Ellington was -3ppg compared to Lacy & Charles. Rashad Jennings -4ppg compared.

It's 2015 though :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

And, to take this discussion a step further......what about the tight ends being taken? I will admit I am not a fan of taking a TE early, so for those who did (other than Gronk, I get that one) please convince me why you selected them prior to this round.

 

I am always looking to learn from others, and you all are the "cream of the crop" on this Board, so I am ready to learn!

I took jimmy graham where I did because of a few reasons

 

1. Best value

2. No standout wr or rb at the time, in my opinion

3. Felt I could get the rb2 I wanted in round 4 and I did.

4. QB is deep

 

In usually don't look to take a tight end early unless the flown of the draft dictates it and while I don't view it as a premium position (same with qb), tight end is not nearly as deep as QB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coleman......banking on him getting the job in Hotlanta, if not day 1, certainly by the middle of the season. Shanahan likes his running backs in the Coleman mode, and I think he is a better runner for Hotlanta than _____ is, even if Coleman is a rookie.

 

Having the Hotlanta RB/WR combo is not either good or bad, it just happened that way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really like what's getting ready to be available at this turn. I'm going to have more available time today, so I'll try to offer up some summations after the sixth is complete.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's 2015 though :P

 

Correct. But i am putting together an analysis for year after year to see if a real trend emerges. Looking to see if some valid correlation can be made. It would not be one-size fits all of course, variations in scoring would likely have to be accounted for, but in a standard scoring system......just where does it start to get traction.....so far the stats are pretty cool.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really like what's getting ready to be available at this turn.

Agreed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love the Jarvis Landry pick. Almost picked him myself, but went with RB because WR is deeper. Doing it again, though, I might take Landry. Talent is through the roof on that kid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Correct. But i am putting together an analysis for year after year to see if a real trend emerges. Looking to see if some valid correlation can be made. It would not be one-size fits all of course, variations in scoring would likely have to be accounted for, but in a standard scoring system......just where does it start to get traction.....so far the stats are pretty cool.

I was directing that at jscott. I get what you're on to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So positional scoring wise a wash???? I see Luck as a can't miss unless hurt prospect. You gained on his end then have to hope the two backs stay healthy and produce like last season. Risk reward on taking the QB and I feel Luck was the top choice in the draft. I wonder what the math wouild show for taking a rb/wr in rounds 2 and 3??

Jeff, I wondered if you had done the math on had you went with one of each when you went wr/wr?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Martavius is interesting, especially if he becomes the every down #2. Crazy TD % last year and ypc. He and Jarvis were consider when I took Cooper

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was directing that at jscott. I get what you're on to.

 

I know, was just inserting myself... :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Landry was a consideration for me but in this format I think roddy can have a 1000 and 8 year. I see Landry with more receptions and less tds.

 

Roddy did well enough in 14 games last year. Ofcourse my outlook on him is based on a full sEason which may not be realistic but I like to assume a full 16 otherwise I wouldn't draft

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love Martavius this year. I think that the Steelers know how to use him and I think he could become their red zone machine. I don't think that there is any doubt that he will beat out Wheaton for the #2 spot.

 

ICEMAN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeff, I wondered if you had done the math on had you went with one of each when you went wr/wr?

Hyde and Gordon were the next two RBs taken after the 2/3 turn so neither has relevant stats to look at. The next vets were Forsett and Morris. Forsett was only +1ppg compared to Ellington, and Morris was +1ppg compared to Jennings. So waiting 2 rounds on RB would have only cost 1ppg by 2014 numbers. Looking the other way waiting on RB from the 1st round to the 3rd round (again comparing Charles and Lacy) taking Forsett and Morris was only -2ppg by 2014 numbers. Compare that to waiting on QB in the 3rd (Luck v. Brees/Manning/Wilson/Roeth) would be a -3ppg to -4ppg.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ryan and Cam were -5ppg compared to Luck last season. Ellington was -3ppg compared to Lacy & Charles. Rashad Jennings -4ppg compared.

 

In our draft, by way of example, if you pick at #1 overall and select a QB, in this instance Luck 22 other players are selected before your next picks, and one of thos was a QB. Right now just 2014 FPTS, 2013 is under way.

 

So, using stats just from a generic PPR league I noted that Luck was at 21.37PPG in 2014.

 

In this instance Jeffery and Evans then represent a total score of 32.58 combined; for a fully integrated value of 53.95.

 

Let's say you waited, and instead took LeVeon Bell, then Jeffery and then with the next pick the next/best/highest scoring QB, you then have 60.17 Each league scoring will differ, so you really have to do it for each individual league.

 

The difference is interesting to me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was likely going to be the pick for me had you not taken him.

Got you back for picking Randle right in front of me :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the available RB/WRs looking very similar to me and no need to take QB here (JScott and Fumble each have one), "The Black Unicorn" stands out to me as the prime value here. I'm not expecting anything remotely close to his 90-916-6 season in 2014, but he seems like a better bet for about 70-750-6 than just about any other TE on the board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

In our draft, by way of example, if you pick at #1 overall and select a QB, in this instance Luck 22 other players are selected before your next picks, and one of thos was a QB. Right now just 2014 FPTS, 2013 is under way.

 

So, using stats just from a generic PPR league I noted that Luck was at 21.37PPG in 2014.

 

In this instance Jeffery and Evans then represent a total score of 32.58 combined; for a fully integrated value of 53.95.

 

Let's say you waited, and instead took LeVeon Bell, then Jeffery and then with the next pick the next/best/highest scoring QB, you then have 60.17 Each league scoring will differ, so you really have to do it for each individual league.

 

The difference is interesting to me.

 

 

If you perform the same assessment in 2013, essentially targeting players at the same spots, you come out better at 69.27 taking a QB #1 overall vs 61.40 by doing the other way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

If you perform the same assessment in 2013, essentially targeting players at the same spots, you come out better at 69.27 taking a QB #1 overall vs 61.40 by doing the other way.

I think Peyton's otherworldly 2013 has something to do with that difference. Not saying Luck can't approach that, but I'd be interested to see what the difference would be if you projected Luck for 5,000 yards and 45 TDs (modest bumps over last year) but about 500 yards and 10 TDs shy of what Manning did the previous year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Peyton's otherworldly 2013 has something to do with that difference. Not saying Luck can't approach that, but I'd be interested to see what the difference would be if you projected Luck for 5,000 yards and 45 TDs (modest bumps over last year) but about 500 yards and 10 TDs shy of what Manning did the previous year.

 

Yes, good points. I was hoping to graph the performance and make some correlations that could maybe be used looking forward, but not finding it yet. Projecting like this in FF is just problematic in and of itself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hyde and Gordon were the next two RBs taken after the 2/3 turn so neither has relevant stats to look at. The next vets were Forsett and Morris. Forsett was only +1ppg compared to Ellington, and Morris was +1ppg compared to Jennings. So waiting 2 rounds on RB would have only cost 1ppg by 2014 numbers. Looking the other way waiting on RB from the 1st round to the 3rd round (again comparing Charles and Lacy) taking Forsett and Morris was only -2ppg by 2014 numbers. Compare that to waiting on QB in the 3rd (Luck v. Brees/Manning/Wilson/Roeth) would be a -3ppg to -4ppg.

Bazinga!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I sent Jeff a note that he was OTC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I knew J.Bell wouldn't make it past Fumble, but watching him fall got my hopes up. I almost picked him at my last turn. He was the extra RB I was deciding between that I posted about earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I knew J.Bell wouldn't make it past Fumble, but watching him fall got my hopes up. I almost picked him at my last turn. He was the extra RB I was deciding between that I posted about earlier.

 

Was watching him fall as well, wondering who would snatch him, its wasn't going to be me.... :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I knew J.Bell wouldn't make it past Fumble, but watching him fall got my hopes up. I almost picked him at my last turn. He was the extra RB I was deciding between that I posted about earlier.

Knowing what we know (or don't know) right now about Bell, I sure as hell wasn't going to take him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the other shoe drops. I liked Bell as long as I could have Abdullah, too. Starting to think a little more about best ball format now in addition to the fact that I like RB depth. I am putting together an odd team, though...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha. I was thinking Bell/Abdullah at this turn if Bell made it to me. Then when Fumble took Bell, I was still thinking Abdullah for the block... but decided on the uncertainty in CLE :shocking: rather than that in DET

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I knew J.Bell wouldn't make it past Fumble, but watching him fall got my hopes up. I almost picked him at my last turn. He was the extra RB I was deciding between that I posted about earlier.

That's who I assumed u meant. I had him right after blount

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trying for a home run with the Kevin White pick. Too many vets on my team right now, I needed a wild card.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×