Draft Allocation settings for Projections

[B'More 0]

As one who uses the Value Based Draft Projections, I'm just curious as to those who have used Draft Buddy over a period of time which choices of the 13 in the dropdown under the OPTIONS tab at AVERAGE PROJECTIONS / DRAFT ALLOCATION works best when working with the OVERALL tab and using the "Value" column?

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I use 100% FF Today or 100% my own projections. The features to add other projections and do a weighted average are in there because numerous users really like the ability to do that, but I will admit I don't actually use it. I suppose I originally developed it because I thought I would! Ha ha. That was a long time ago.

[B'More 0]

I love Value Based because it helps me to compare the "apples to the oranges." A number of years ago I did my own VBD by using the prior 3 years, multiplying the third year by 1, second prior year by 2 and the prior year by 3, adding them together and dividing by the total of those years each player played. Then applying the scoring rules. As you can imagine, it took hours of work, but I had a great run of success doing it.

 

In the past number of years I just didn't have time. Last year I had success with Draft Buddy, making the playoffs in one league, in the championship game in another. Both I used the 60-30-10 weighted average that is very similar to what I had done years ago.

 

I see a bit of difference in the "Value" column in the OVERALL tab of the projections with the weighted average (60-30-10) and that of FFToday. But seeing how good the site, I'm torn on whether to keep using the weighted or go with FFToday's projections.

 

Help! lol

[Mike MacGregor 20]

News and situation can change quite a bit from one year to the next, not to mention rookies can have a big impact immediately, so I would think you would want at least some influence from the current year projections that reflect these things.

 

A pro for the weighted average of prior year stats - may help you identify some players that are trending up but are still under the radar by the fantasy community.

[B'More 0]

Yup, couldn't agree more Mike. As I found Draft Buddy last year, I recalled that exact thing with rookies when I was doing it manually in late 90's into 2000's, so I kind of swayed from it until last year even though my early success with it seemed to overcome the shortcomings of rookies and news.

 

I started using VBD/Weighted in 1999 and I picked three players from the same team in the first three rounds based on the 60-30-10 VBD manual projection I did. QB, RB and WR. I was laughed at by the owners on draft day. I won the first three games and lost the fourth because they were all on bye. Then rode them all the way to the championship. Manning, James and Harrison in the year they exploded. I was a firm believer after that and won my fair share with VBD.

 

Did my drafting last year on the VBD/Weighted and made it to two championship games. But came up short in my opinion because I was missing some rookies I overlooked with the weighted values. I realize now some years the VBD/Weighted is so strong it can make up for the weakness of overlooking rookies/news.

 

This year, as I began my prep and Draft Buddy, the rookie issue and 'news' as you mention did get me to thinking and why I made this post. So I'm going with the FFToday projections that DO take into consideration the news and rookies but still with the VBD in mind in the OVERALL tab and the Value column.

 

Playing in leagues where the draft manager such as Yahoo, NFL.com, ESPN, et. al. where projections are offered to all owners, makes you realize using the same projections as they do DOES NOT set you apart, it actually makes you ONLY AS GOOD AS THEY ARE!

 

Now that I don't have to spend hours doing a manual VBD by having Draft Buddy, I can go back to using the VBD that I love and SET ME APART on draft day! :-)

 

Thanks for the feedback.

 

Dan O.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Great post Dan