weepaws 3,191 Posted May 27, 2016 Clinging to stats like that is bad. Where does he rank if he catches one more td or a few more passes? I looked, he would be top 6-7 total wr points with a couple more catches and a td, there is a ton of variance there. There is so little carryover from year to year its almost meaningless what happened. Go off of career reputation, opportunity, current situation and eye test. Follow catches and yards, tds come and go and are extremely flukey. He puts up a stellar 105 1300 and its one of his worst seasons. I am buying all day, especially at this discount. He had one of his worst seasons and it was better than most guys best seasons. He can absolutely improve on it. The upside isnt exactly throught the roof with the qbs there, but the floor is still attractive. Think that's all we have to cling on to is what happen in the past . If I just look at has stats than add a catch or two plus a few more tds he would be in the top seven . But it didn't happen . If I add ten more rec and three more 3 tds to B Marshall season he would have been the number one scoring wr in fantasy football . So I look at fantasy football points and base it on what I see and on the current situation. It works for me . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,062 Posted May 27, 2016 Think that's all we have to cling on to is what happen in the past . Disagree, but thats ok. Basing anything on last year is one of the biggest fantasy traps that clouds my judgement. There is very little carryover year to year and its a new wild and crazy rollercoaster without fail annually. 50-60% of last years top 10 wont be top 10 this year, happens every year going back a decade and prob longer. DT is one of the few who actually has consistency to fall back on, along with alot of the top wrs. That is valuable. Not nitpicking what a couple catches here and there would or would not have done for his stat line. All this said, I doubt we even have him that far apart in our rankings. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted May 28, 2016 Disagree, but thats ok. Basing anything on last year is one of the biggest fantasy traps that clouds my judgement. There is very little carryover year to year and its a new wild and crazy rollercoaster without fail annually. 50-60% of last years top 10 wont be top 10 this year, happens every year going back a decade and prob longer. DT is one of the few who actually has consistency to fall back on, along with alot of the top wrs. That is valuable. Not nitpicking what a couple catches here and there would or would not have done for his stat line. All this said, I doubt we even have him that far apart in our rankings. Consistency to fall back on , would be based on what he has done in the past . So we both do look at what they have done in the past . Now when looking at Thomas and his number does pre Manning also count or his is past just based on the last few years with Manning being his Qb ? Don't think he was a top ten Wr before Manning was his Qb . So that why I'm ranking him out my top ten based on his past which would count last season also when he did finish in ppr 14 in points per . And based on this years current Qb situation I'm not going to rank him in the top ten . I'm still buying , but not as high as some . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flgatorguy87 160 Posted May 28, 2016 Good discussion on DT. Here's a question for everyone. Who's the single best value at WR this year? I'm going Jordy, but doubtful I'll be in position to draft him where I'll be sitting...unless I rush it, which then sort of kills the value thing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted May 28, 2016 First I agree about J Nelson he is a player I'm targeting also . Second I think Jeffery of the Bears could be a good value . Now I didn't rank him on my top ten list and see it has a mistake , and that I should have and will be doing so . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,258 Posted May 28, 2016 Tyler Lockett, or someone else not drafted in the first three rounds. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,062 Posted May 28, 2016 Jeffrey for sure could be one of the best values. Top 5 potential at a top 15 price. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lesjroza 70 Posted May 28, 2016 I just wanted to toss my 2 cents in regarding the comments I see lots of places "..........don't think DTs or Sanders stats can get much worse than they were with end of career Peyton". Uh, yeah they can IMO.........its not that I'm taking offense at the knocks on Peyton, but guys it absolutely can get a lot worse for FF stats. The reason Peyton was on the field instead of Osweiler who could throw the ball much better was that Peyton was able to keep the chains moving by doing his magic. Metriculating the ball down the field may not result in the big plays we would like to see for FF, but it does result in plays run (PPR points) and eventually red zone opportunities. Wow throws are nice but rookie QBs (and Mark Sanchezes) throw a pick and that stop FF points from happening for anybody, Do not pass Go, do not collect $200. Peyton threw a bunch too but Ditto when the rook doesn't sense the backside pressure from the LB or blitzing CB and lays the ball on the ground. There will be no more chance for FF points on a drive if on 3rd down the rook doesn't connect with his hot read on the pressure he does sense. There are no FF points for his WRs to be scored on the drive where he doesn't check out of the run which is taking the RB right in the teeth of the run blitz on 3rd and short. There are much worse FF situations for WRs than old man Peyton. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oldtimer 84 Posted May 28, 2016 First I agree about J Nelson he is a player I'm targeting also . Second I think Jeffery of the Bears could be a good value . Now I didn't rank him on my top ten list and see it has a mistake , and that I should have and will be doing so . I also like Jeffery. He could be a semi-steal for where he is currently getting drafted. A possible 4-7'ish WR going around the 14th WR slot right now, at least in expert drafts. A lot of people are high on Nelson, but I'm a bit worried about him this season. Will he start off slow from the injury? Will he lose a step? He isn't getting younger, although, he does have Superman throwing him the football. I was listening to a fantasy football podcast at work and the "experts" did their first mock of the year. Nelson went as the 7th WR off the board, so some people apparently like him a lot. DT is an enigma, but one I'd gamble on. In Kubiak's offense, he has always had one stud WR who performed well regardless of the QB. Kubiak will find a way to get him the ball. Andre Johnson had some shaky QB play, but still did just fine in PPR Leagues, even minus the touchdowns. Whoever starts in Denver will likely be throwing quite a bit to DT. I can see the risk in taking him before some others, but he's been pretty consistent, even with downright putrid QB play. He's one of the guys I have tabbed that, barring injury, is going to be no worse than falling just outside the top 10. For where he's being taken, it's not much of a gamble. The downside with Sanchez is his arm strength and accuracy. Hopefully he finds someone who can teach him at least the accuracy part. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted May 28, 2016 D Parker of the Dolphins I think is a good value pick . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flgatorguy87 160 Posted May 28, 2016 D Parker of the Dolphins I think is a good value pick . Absolutely. It's looking like he will be in the slot a good percentage of the time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oldtimer 84 Posted May 28, 2016 D Parker of the Dolphins I think is a good value pick . I agree, but think his name is going to begin shooting up the ADP ladder. I looked at the MFL ADP rankings earlier. He was #20 at WR. I can see him moving up to the 14th or so slot by August. Gase is already hyping him up and the kid can flat out play. He high points the football as well as anyone I've seen come into the league. With Revis looking nearly human, Buffalo having no pass rush and the Patriots having Secondary issues, he could have a great season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted May 28, 2016 I agree, but think his name is going to begin shooting up the ADP ladder. I looked at the MFL ADP rankings earlier. He was #20 at WR. I can see him moving up to the 14th or so slot by August. Gase is already hyping him up and the kid can flat out play. He high points the football as well as anyone I've seen come into the league. With Revis looking nearly human, Buffalo having no pass rush and the Patriots having Secondary issues, he could have a great season. Yea I'm afraid you are right , his ADP is going to start shooting up . And it already as . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stonewall 647 Posted May 28, 2016 I guess I am the lone Ashlon detractor, even at his current ADP (which will rise). I just don't think he is capable of staying healthy. He is a thoroughbred with hammies that are jacked. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oldtimer 84 Posted May 28, 2016 I guess I am the lone Ashlon detractor, even at his current ADP (which will rise). I just don't think he is capable of staying healthy. He is a thoroughbred with hammies that are jacked. Some people think this is why they drafted White last year and why they have yet to extend his contract. I wonder if it is his hammies, or if he just isn't working out in the offseason. Rumors last year were he didn't do anything over the offseason and his conditioning was pretty bad. He will probably be the guy I overdraft and regret. Normally injury risk guys I downgrade a lot, but with a team that should be playing from behind quite a bit, has nothing else to speak of on offense (we're unsure about how good White will be at this point), Alshon should tear things up in garbage time. IF, he is healthy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,258 Posted May 28, 2016 Yeah but when he does play he is money 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted May 28, 2016 2014 and 2013 he played in every game . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,062 Posted May 29, 2016 2014 and 2013 he played in every game .Indeed. Too many people are claiming guys injury prone after one season of nagging injuries. It's like no one cares to remember anything besides what just happened this last season. As I claimed before, that's a trap and things rarely shake out the same way the next year. Have to count a body of work of at least a few years and Jeffrey has earned at least a little trust. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stonewall 647 Posted May 30, 2016 Indeed. Too many people are claiming guys injury prone after one season of nagging injuries. It's like no one cares to remember anything besides what just happened this last season. As I claimed before, that's a trap and things rarely shake out the same way the next year. Have to count a body of work of at least a few years and Jeffrey has earned at least a little trust. 2014 and 2013 he played in every game . Perhaps......anything can and does happen in FF, but buyer beware. Jefferies is a racehorse and needs worked out. Thus far, he has not been at off season workouts. John Fox said "Ashlon knows how I feel about that:" He has the talent, no doubt. Could be a top 5 WR if healthy all year. However, I get a bad feeling about it. Will draft White instead. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LunaTick 30 Posted May 30, 2016 Like to see people edit their posts and rank their WR lists on the following categories Top 10 Yardage Top 10 TD Top 10 Receptions Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maulers1973 117 Posted May 31, 2016 I guess I am the lone Ashlon detractor, even at his current ADP (which will rise). I just don't think he is capable of staying healthy. He is a thoroughbred with hammies that are jacked. I'm not real high on him. He's the burner and will get big plays, but I don't think he'll be a consistent producer week in and week out. I think a healthy White will steal some targets too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
svtballa 8 Posted May 31, 2016 I love the value Golden Tate offers. 99 catches in 2014/ 90 in 2015. Hes going right now as the 24Th WR off the board. In a PPR I would be thrilled at landing him in the mid 4th round and potentially being my #3 WR. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,062 Posted May 31, 2016 I love the value Golden Tate offers. 99 catches in 2014/ 90 in 2015. Hes going right now as the 24Th WR off the board. In a PPR I would be thrilled at landing him in the mid 4th round and potentially being my #3 WR. 3rd wr ok, but not in the mid 4th. I am soaking up the rb talent that people cast aside at that point or going for better potential at wr. 6th round, then we can talk about Tate. I may be down on him more than most. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,258 Posted May 31, 2016 3rd wr ok, but not in the mid 4th. I am soaking up the rb talent that people cast aside at that point or going for better potential at wr. 6th round, then we can talk about Tate. I may be down on him more than most. I am not a big Tate fan, but Staffords 600+ attempts have to go to someone. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the spanker 28 Posted June 1, 2016 I am not a big Tate fan, but Staffords 600+ attempts have to go to someone. Why I'm liking Marvin Jones at a discounted price and Ebron super cheap. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted June 1, 2016 Agree I think Marvin Jones will be a much better buy . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdon 28 Posted June 1, 2016 anyone scared of Ivory cutting into Robinsons TDs? This hurts Hurns more I think... Bortles threw a shitload of red zone touchdowns to the point where I think he TD total could fall double digits if the running backs can do anything combined... good call... Anyone worried about A. Brown's health? I am Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,258 Posted June 1, 2016 This hurts Hurns more I think... Bortles threw a shitload of red zone touchdowns to the point where I think he TD total could fall double digits if the running backs can do anything combined... good call... Anyone worried about A. Brown's health? I am Antonio Brown? I searched and havent found any recent injury news. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,062 Posted June 1, 2016 Anyone worried about A. Brown's health? I am Because he is the consensus top player in FF? Yes. Because of medical or logical reasons? No. I can almost guarantee a letdown season after all this hype, but if he gets hurt it will just be the fantasy gods playing games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdon 28 Posted June 1, 2016 Didn't Brown get knocked out last year? i could see people targeting him like they do Gronk... I am over sensitive to concussions but I would put Brown after julio, ODB, and Nuk... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
giraldi02 474 Posted June 1, 2016 Didn't Brown get knocked out last year? i could see people targeting him like they do Gronk... I am over sensitive to concussions but I would put Brown after julio, ODB, and Nuk... In PPR re-draft, Antonio Brown is in his own tier. At the top. Don't overthink these things, or YOU might be the one at risk of concussion-like symptoms 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,062 Posted June 1, 2016 I remember when I had Calvin when he was in his own tier at the top of wr rankings. Bust. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted June 1, 2016 Brown is going to be number one on my board . Easiest move everyone can make . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lesjroza 70 Posted June 2, 2016 If Jeff Fisher is correct and Tavon Austin catches 100 passes he will be top 10 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted June 2, 2016 He's had 124 catches in three NFL seasons . Don't think it's going to happen . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Masterminds 5 Posted June 2, 2016 He's had 124 catches in three NFL seasons . Don't think it's going to happen . Antonio Brown only had 145 catches in his first 3 seasons and then grabbed 110 catches in his fourth season. Stats are nice to look at, but shouldn't be the only thing you look at, especially with younger players who are still getting acquainted with the NFL. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted June 2, 2016 Antonio Brown only had 145 catches in his first 3 seasons and then grabbed 110 catches in his fourth season. Stats are nice to look at, but shouldn't be the only thing you look at, especially with younger players who are still getting acquainted with the NFL. Mm very good find . Thanks for that insight . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted June 2, 2016 Might help though if Austin has a Qb like Rothlisburger Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,191 Posted June 2, 2016 Just to add to the list . Austin has 201 targets in three seasons , Brown had 135 catches in season two and three . I don't see 100 catch season for Austin . It could happen , just don't think so . But rank accordingly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the spanker 28 Posted June 2, 2016 Just to add to the list . Austin has 201 targets in three seasons , Brown had 135 catches in season two and three . I don't see 100 catch season for Austin . It could happen , just don't think so . But rank accordingly. Austin is going pretty late in drafts and being the only real weapon next in line for touches behind Gurley, he's someone who could really shatter his ADP. Risk is low...Reward is great.....I'm a buyer provided his ADP doesn't rise and I doubt that it does. Sign me up. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites