There is no way Gronk stays healthy right?

[BTL99]

??

[weepaws]

?

[BTL99]

Agreed. Thx. Not drafting.

[Frozenbeernuts]

Sooo... weepaws wins this thread?

[BTL99]

Sooo... weepaws wins this thread?

Draft gronk??? Disagree.

[[echo]]

but what if he does?.. 950 yards and 14 td's?

[weepaws]

His adp is way to high to take that chance yes?

[Kent]

Every recent year the Gronk owner in our league gets crippled by his loss. I'll never be that guy. That guy never has a good second RB or WR and can't even trade his way out of the problem. Our league just watches the Gronkless team die with smirks on our faces. If Gronk fell to the end of the second round maybe he worth the risk?

[weepaws]

Every year in every draft I see owners taking Te in the early rounds, and I count the first five rounds as early rounds, and tracking those teams so many of them fall short of making the playoffs.

 

Plus on ff teams you really only have one slot for a te and that position can easily be filled with a late draft pick.

 

Picking a te late does mean you won't have the top three or four te but that's ok with me, I would rather load up with WRs and Rbs early and pass on that te that will avg 13-14 points per game for a late te draft pick that will avg 11-12.

 

And have more to work with at Rbs and WRs as the season goes on.

[Captain Goomy Noomy Roo]

Every year in every draft I see owners taking Te in the early rounds, and I count the first five rounds as early rounds, and tracking those teams so many of them fall short of making the playoffs.

 

Plus on ff teams you really only have one slot for a te and that position can easily be filled with a late draft pick.

 

Picking a te late does mean you won't have the top three or four te but that's ok with me, I would rather load up with WRs and Rbs early and pass on that te that will avg 13-14 points per game for a late te draft pick that will avg 11-12.

 

And have more to work with at Rbs and WRs as the season goes on.

This

[Mr Neil]

I drafted Gronk for first time ever in our 12 team keeper league and finished in 11th place. I could never recover from that schmuck either being hurt or having he pats play injury report games all week then him be a decoy. I did it for one year and never again will I ever touch him. Maybe late 3rd round if he fell but that would be it. No way in first or second round. You will get 6 games out of him maybe and almost guaranteed he is not gonna be around during your fantasy playoffs. So why get burned

[thegame]

If your team stinks because of one blown draft pick then you ain't very good at this hobby. I wouldn't take him until the third this year but I've had several teams win it all with him on my roster. I like high risk/reward guys because I believe in my ability to draft good depth and manage the hell out of my team in season with WW moves and trades. When he's on, he's the best statistical advantage you can have outside of a year like DJ had last season. But Gronk has done it again and again.

[redsrback]

I automatically dont figure him into my draft, im not drafting him early. Only scenario I could see since we have 1 alternate we can put in our line-up, is if I had a back to back pick, and I feel the remaining rbs and wrs are like 20 players I value about the same. Then if I can take Gronk and Kelce. Kelce had 1100 yds receiving last year and led all TEs in fantasy points, I can use him like a WR when Gronk is healthy. Don't see this happening of course, and I'm not passing up on about a dozen WRs and a dozen RBs to take a guy I assume will be injured. There is risk/reward, and there is" you deserve what you get."

[Kent]

If your team stinks because of one blown draft pick then you ain't very good at this hobby. I wouldn't take him until the third this year but I've had several teams win it all with him on my roster. I like high risk/reward guys because I believe in my ability to draft good depth and manage the hell out of my team in season with WW moves and trades. When he's on, he's the best statistical advantage you can have outside of a year like DJ had last season. But Gronk has done it again and again.

If you lose Gronk in a 12 -16 player league your team stinks. If your 12-16 player league has quality owners, you're cooked. You playing in 8 man leagues?

[Ray_T]

If you lose Gronk in a 12 -16 player league your team stinks. If your 12-16 player league has quality owners, you're cooked. You playing in 8 man leagues?

you can lose one top pick due to injury (or any other reason) if you draft a player in the late rounds who breaks out.

 

it happens.

 

but my thought is that to win a draft, you need a couple of things to happen:

 

1) a solid draft at the start of the year.

 

2) grab a sleeper late in the draft (or off of waivers) who is an above average starter.

 

3) have your team remain relatively healthy.

 

Not necessarily in that order.

 

generally, you need at least one sleeper to pan out to have a good shot at winning. If you have injuries, you need more than one sleeper to pan out because someone needs to replace the fantasy points lost.

 

In any given year, you should expect at least one injury. sometimes that hits a top player, sometimes a bench guy, but everyone deals with it at one point or another.

 

for each injury to a starter, you need one backup or waiver wire pickup to perform. that is the way of things.

 

I agree, it's harder to lose a pick in the top 3 rounds and still win, but I have done it. I just think your odds of doing it go down substantially if you lose a top 3 guy. It means you need to hit on more late round players and waiver wire pickups.

[phillygrrl08]

In my high stakes leagues, TEs get 1.5 ppr. There is one TE position and two Flex spots. The person who has the dominant TEs has an edge. To me, taking Gronk in that format with pick 2 is worth it.

[Ray_T]

In my high stakes leagues, TEs get 1.5 ppr. There is one TE position and two Flex spots. The person who has the dominant TEs has an edge. To me, taking Gronk in that format with pick 2 is worth it.

yeah, that format makes it very tempting to swing for the fences.

[TBayXXXVII]

yeah, that format makes it very tempting to swing for the fences.

 

To me, that's all the more reason to avoid Gronk. It'll be harder to replace him "when" he gets hurt. I would take Kelce early in that format, but Gronk drops a lot further because the risk becomes that much greater.

[Ray_T]

 

To me, that's all the more reason to avoid Gronk. It'll be harder to replace him "when" he gets hurt. I would take Kelce early in that format, but Gronk drops a lot further because the risk becomes that much greater.

well, Kelce is higher on my list than Gronk, but there is only one Kelce and 12 teams in most drafts.

 

If I am targeting Kelce I"m happy to see people take Gronk because that gives me a better shot at getting my man.

 

once Kelce is gone, the question is who is #2? I think Gronks upside makes him #2 but at what point in the draft do you take him?

 

I wouldnt pick him early but someone surely will.

[thegame]

If you lose Gronk in a 12 -16 player league your team stinks. If your 12-16 player league has quality owners, you're cooked. You playing in 8 man leagues?

12 team league last year I won with him as my second round pick. It can be done. And I'll tell you this year I've got him in round three. Got third overall pick: Brown, Murray, Gronk. Perhaps a lot of risk with them but I love that start! 12 team PPR.

[weepaws]

Not to sure what that says about the rest of the owners in the league.

[Ray_T]

Not to sure what that says about the rest of the owners in the league.

I disagree.

 

in most leagues, the winning team has to overcome injuries of some sort. And honestly, all you need to do is be healthy enough to make the playoffs and fully healthy through the playoffs.

 

I won back to back years a couple years back in my big money pool and had injuries both years to one of my keepers (we kept 3 so the equivalent of your 2nd/3rd round pick)

 

but I drafted exceptionally well that year. one year I had my top RB go down, but happened to pickup Steve Slaton the year he broke out and didnt miss a beat. The other year a QB went down but my 3rd string QB (we start 2 QB in that league) played well enough.

 

I'm saying it's not impossible, but if you have injuries, you NEED to either have a sleeper pan out or have a waiver wire Gem that lights it up for you.

 

Basically if you are astute, you can make up for it. But you (likely) also need to take more risks in your waiver wire pickups to try to get those gems)

[weepaws]

I was just kidding with the person.

 

Of course anything can happen when it comes to ff.

 

Thanks for the reply.

[Kent]

12 team league last year I won with him as my second round pick. It can be done. And I'll tell you this year I've got him in round three. Got third overall pick: Brown, Murray, Gronk. Perhaps a lot of risk with them but I love that start! 12 team PPR.

Interesting that he's falling to the 3rd. Says a lot.

[phillygrrl08]

He went 1.12 in my first high stakes league BUT the guy drafting was on auto draft. I was hoping to get him in the second but took Olsen in the third

[weepaws]

Who did you get in the second round?

[phillygrrl08]

Amari Cooper. OBJ first

[weepaws]

You where indeed blessed, Cooper is a much better pick.

 

Nice start.

[phillygrrl08]

the guy on autodraft got a bad deal. Computer had him take AP and Jamaal Charles by round five. Felt badly for him but if you pay big bucks to play then you need to know when your draft is

[thegame]

Interesting that he's falling to the 3rd. Says a lot.

He's usually gone late second. Rare to see him top of third.

[weepaws]

Ouch in a big money league that's a tough one

 

But like you said you need to be at the draft.

[Frozenbeernuts]

12 team league last year I won with him as my second round pick. It can be done. And I'll tell you this year I've got him in round three. Got third overall pick: Brown, Murray, Gronk. Perhaps a lot of risk with them but I love that start! 12 team PPR.

Murray is not dropping that far

[Ray_T]

Murray is not dropping that far

I know the experts are dropping him, but the reality is... it's hard to drop a player that much when he has a season like Murray had last year.

 

He should be a top 5-6 running back and presents great value for anyone picking him in round 2.

[thegame]

Murray is not dropping that far

Got him at 2.10. I'd say more often than not he might be a bit higher but he's been going solidly between 2.6 and 2.12 in every draft I've seen. I've yet to see a draft where he went before Howard or Ajay and I've seen Fournette go ahead of him. I think that's nuts but that's just me...

[tanatastic]

Early TE is a fools gold advantage. It's a fake advantage that makes you think it's more valuable than it is. Not touching a TE earlier than rnd 6.

[TBayXXXVII]

Honestly, I've never played in a league where the guy who had Gronk made it to the finals (except for 1 dynasty league).