Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
American Chewy

How often do highly drafted rookie rbs payoff?

Recommended Posts

I see all these rookies going in the late 2nd to early 4th rounds and I feel it's too high a price for any of them. More often than not it takes nearly half a season for a rookie rb to get a significant workload either due to learning blitz pickups, adjusting to the speed of the game, forcing out a veteren starter, whatever else. Seems way to risky to invest that high a pick in redraft. I get it, rb is scarce, but the payoff rate has to be low here I feel. I don't see myself even debating fournette, cook, mccaffrey, mixon, hunt unless we are talking at a min rounds 8-10.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

American Chewy, on 23 Aug 2017 - 12:22 PM, said:

 

I see all these rookies going in the late 2nd to early 4th rounds and I feel it's too high a price for any of them. More often than not it takes nearly half a season for a rookie rb to get a significant workload either due to learning blitz pickups, adjusting to the speed of the game, forcing out a veteren starter, whatever else. Seems way to risky to invest that high a pick in redraft. I get it, rb is scarce, but the payoff rate has to be low here I feel. I don't see myself even debating fournette, cook, mccaffrey, mixon, hunt unless we are talking at a min rounds 8-10.

I dont have numbers to support, but I suspect 50-65% of the time when a RB is drafted in round 1 or 2 he becomes the starter within 2 years.

 

of those, who become the starter, a quarter flame out quickly and become career backups or leave the NFL.

roughly a quarter become mediocre starters until someone replaces them.

the rest generally become good long term starters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They pay off all the time and come out of the gates dominating. Edgerrin james, Peterson, Zeke last year, Howard as soon as he started, Gurley, Addai, Portis, Doug Martin, that's just a partial list, it goes on and on. Rookie RBs if anything tend to start fast and hit a wall late. But they are well known for coming out not if it's the right combination of talent/opportunity.

 

RB is THE position rookies can come in and live up to draft status right away. QB and WR tend to start slower and pay off later. In fact almost annually they represent some of the best value since people hesitate and they end up with big seasons. Usually though that's rnd 4, but now people are wise and they go rnd 2-3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They pay off all the time and come out of the gates dominating. Edgerrin james, Peterson, Zeke last year, Howard as soon as he started, Gurley, Addai, Portis, Doug Martin, that's just a partial list, it goes on and on. Rookie RBs if anything tend to start fast and hit a wall late. But they are well known for coming out not if it's the right combination of talent/opportunity.

 

RB is THE position rookies can come in and live up to draft status right away. QB and WR tend to start slower and pay off later.

all the time might be pushing it. first round picks do flame out.

 

Trent Richardson, Ron Dayne and Rashan Salaam come to mind. all were first round picks. all were duds.

 

Richardson is the highest profile one that was drafted recently, but it does happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

all the time might be pushing it. first round picks do flame out.

 

Trent Richardson, Ron Dayne and Rashan Salaam come to mind. all were first round picks. all were duds.

 

Richardson is the highest profile one that was drafted recently, but it does happen.

Richardson was not a dud...he had a stellar rookie year. This topic is about rookie years. By "all the time" I don't mean every player, obviously, cmon now. I mean all the time as in most years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, the rookies are falling in tiers with RB's we've seen and are somewhat of a known commodity.

 

For example: We know what we'll get from Jonathan Stewart - 7-10 games, 800 yrds rush recving & 5 TD's. So, people are banking on the higher upseide that a McCafferey offers over the known mundane numbers of a guy who has never been able to stay healthy for a full season.

 

The only rookies that I would advise strong caution for are: Joseph Williams, Marlon Mack, and Cohen They all have entrenched starters in front of them. However, Cook, McCafferey, Mixon, and Hunt look great to me. I'll call Perine a toss up?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Richardson was not a dud...he has a stellar rookie year. This topic is about rookie years. By "all the time" I don't mean every player, obviously, cmon now. I mean all the time as in most years.

I'd be willing to say 2/3 of the time a first rounder gets to start their rookie year at some point.

 

but for every zeke elliot, there is one Ron Dayne.

 

Lots of reasons can keep a RB off the field as a rookie.

 

poor job of blitz pickup (if you get your QB killed you aint playing)

fumbling

poor job of transitioning from the college game to the pro game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont have numbers to support, but I suspect 50-65% of the time when a RB is drafted in round 1 or 2 he becomes the starter within 2 years.

 

of those, who become the starter, a quarter flame out quickly and become career backups or leave the NFL.

roughly a quarter become mediocre starters until someone replaces them.

the rest generally become good long term starters.

 

http://drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb -- just found this , can see draft history by position by year

 

RB's drafted in the first round have a high success rate in their first year that I see. 2nd round picks a lot of busts but plenty of studs too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

best advice is if you do draft one of the early guys (Cook, Mixon, McCaffrey) then don't stop drafting RBs in those 4-8 rounds to at least keep yourself competitive early while the backfield situation plays itself out.

so still be looking for guys that you can start if need be like Rob Kelley or Bilal Powell, or target later one of the early season suspension fills in like McFadden or Rodgers.

 

the risk/reward is much higher with these guys, especially once you get into the 2nd half of the season, but you still need to keep yourself competitive early to make sure you're covered.

I think it's the fantasy players that take those guys early and then just continuing filling out the rest of the starting lineup before starting cover their bench, that end up getting screwed.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are your first round RBs the last several years.

 

2017 - Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey

2016 - Ezekiel Elliott

2015 - Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon

2014 - None drafted

2013 - None drafted

2012 - Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson

2011 - Mark Ingram

2010 - CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best

2009 - Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells

2008 - Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rasard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson

2007 - Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol a lot of you guys are not on the same page as me and the OP. He is not talking about the NFL draft, he means highly drafted as in popular fantasy picks. Has nothing to do with where in the NFL draft guys we're taken.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol a lot of you guys are not on the same page as me and the OP. He is not talking about the NFL draft, he means highly drafted as in popular fantasy picks. Has nothing to do with where in the NFL draft guys we're taken.

I'm not following.

Is the title not "highly drafted rookie RBs?" how is that not involving a conversation about where highly drafted rookie RBs are drafted from a fantasy ADP standpoint in year one, and whether the investment for the fantasy owner pays off?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol a lot of you guys are not on the same page as me and the OP. He is not talking about the NFL draft, he means highly drafted as in popular fantasy picks. Has nothing to do with where in the NFL draft guys we're taken.

 

If we're strictly talking about where rookie RBs are getting picked in fantasy football then what do we consider early? Which round do we draw the line, third round?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not following.

Is the title not "highly drafted rookie RBs?" how is that not involving a conversation about where highly drafted rookie RBs are drafted from a fantasy ADP standpoint in year one, and whether the investment for the fantasy owner pays off?

By "highly drafted" he means "taken early in fantasy drafts" as in, popular picks, drafted a lot, talked about a lot, highly touted, hyped.

 

Doesn't matter if it's a rookie from round 1 of the NFL draft or round 7 or undrafted. He is asking about rookie RBs that are taken in fantasy drafts.

 

Im sorry if this is snarky but I'm reaching my limit of how many times I need to explain this. I don't like saying the same thing in multiple posts. If anyone is confused, reread my posts please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the OP, "I see all these rookies going in the late 2nd to early 4th round"

 

He's not talking about NFL draft at all. He's talking rookie running backs period. He feels they don't usually perform according to their ADP as in FF ADP.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By "highly drafted" he means "taken early in fantasy drafts" as in, popular picks, drafted a lot, talked about a lot, highly touted, hyped.

 

Doesn't matter if it's a rookie from round 1 of the NFL draft or round 7 or undrafted. He is asking about rookie RBs that are taken in fantasy drafts.

 

Im sorry if this is snarky but I'm reaching my limit of how many times I need to explain this. I don't like saying the same thing in multiple posts. If anyone is confused, reread my posts please.

 

what's the list of 7th rd or undrafted rookie RBs that are highly drafted in fantasy drafts? the title reads "highly drafted" specifically.

 

and why would I care to reread your posts when this is someone else's thread. how do you all of a sudden know what he is talking about? the thread is brand new.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By "highly drafted" he means "taken early in fantasy drafts" as in, popular picks, drafted a lot, talked about a lot, highly touted, hyped.

 

Doesn't matter if it's a rookie from round 1 of the NFL draft or round 7 or undrafted. He is asking about rookie RBs that are taken in fantasy drafts.

 

Im sorry if this is snarky but I'm reaching my limit of how many times I need to explain this. I don't like saying the same thing in multiple posts. If anyone is confused, reread my posts please.

 

:thumbsup: I think you're the only one that gets it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the OP, "I see all these rookies going in the late 2nd to early 4th round"

 

He's not talking about NFL draft at all. He's talking rookie running backs period. He feels they don't usually perform according to their ADP as in FF ADP.

 

You get it as well...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The early ADP for Cook, McCaffrey, and Mixon has surprised me, too. Typically rookie RBs who go in the 3rd and 4th round are assumed to be bellcows. They don't go earlier because everyone has deserve skepticism about guys who've never played an NFL down. Melvin Gordon two years ago is an example of this. Gurley too, though his injury recovery was part of the question.

 

Mixon, McCaffrey, and Cook, though--all seem that they'll at least start the season in a committee. Yes, there's a good chance they emerge, but their ADPs are already teetering on the edge of many of their best case outcomes.

 

I think this partly an overreaction to Zeke's rookie dominance. On the other hand, can you really make a much stronger case for guys like Isaiah Crowell, Marshawn Lynch, or Ty Montgomery? The rookies are moonshots, but it's not like the RBs around and after them have much more of track record.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we go by the first 5 rounds as being early this is what I come up with for a list. These are ADPs from standard scoring mocks on FFC.

 

2017 - Leonard Fournette 2.07, Christian McCaffrey 3.03, Dalvin Cook 3.05, Joe Mixon 3.12

2016 - Ezekiel Elliott 1.06

2015 - Melvin Gordon 4.04, Ameer Abdullah 4.08, Todd Gurley 5.07

2014 - None Taken

2013 - Giovani Bernard 4.06, Montee Ball 5.05

2012 - Doug Martin 3.01, Trent Richardson 3.05

2011 - Mark Ingram 4.11

2010 - Ryan Mathews 2.03, Jahvid Best 4.02

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By "highly drafted" he means "taken early in fantasy drafts" as in, popular picks, drafted a lot, talked about a lot, highly touted, hyped.

 

Doesn't matter if it's a rookie from round 1 of the NFL draft or round 7 or undrafted. He is asking about rookie RBs that are taken in fantasy drafts.

 

Im sorry if this is snarky but I'm reaching my limit of how many times I need to explain this. I don't like saying the same thing in multiple posts. If anyone is confused, reread my posts please.

yeah, well, my response is.... what are the odds that you are gonna draft a rookie in round 1 or 2 of your fantasy draft if they were not taken in the first 2 rounds?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah, well, my response is.... what are the odds that you are gonna draft a rookie in round 1 or 2 of your fantasy draft if they were not taken in the first 2 rounds?

That's a completely different topic, but still a valid one I'm happy to engage in. The odds are small, it's usually the rookies drafted at the top of the NFL draft that carry 1st and 2nd round fantasy value in preseason. But any rookie that has talent and figures to be a big part of a teams offense tends to now get rnd 3-4 hype regardless of NFL draft position. The reason those guys are creeping up to rnd 2-3 now is because people are tired of missing the boat and want to get on earlier.

 

For years in a row I would always grab that second tier rookie in rnd 4 and it paid off so many times (addai, caddilac, AP) But those days are gone, now you have to pay a premium for any talented guy who figures to get a good share of carries/targets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's a completely different topic, but still a valid one I'm happy to engage in. The odds are small, it's usually the rookies drafted at the top of the NFL draft that carry 1st and 2nd round fantasy value in preseason. But any rookie that has talent and figures to be a big part of a teams offense tends to now get rnd 3-4 hype regardless of NFL draft position. The reason those guys are creeping up to rnd 2-3 now is because people are tired of missing the boat and want to get on earlier.

 

For years in a row I would always grab that second tier rookie in rnd 4 and it paid off so many times (addai, caddilac, AP) But those days are gone, now you have to pay a premium for any talented guy who figures to get a good share of carries/targets.

well, I dont disagree with what you are saying. I've profited from a lot of rookies taken in the late rounds. some were one year wonders (Steve Slaton) some were mid round players.

 

but in general I've had a hard time finding value in first round picks just because you DO pay a high price to get them on their roster, and they dont always put up numbers for you in year 1.

 

Case in point: Melvin Gordon. I actually broke my own rule and drafted this kid. his rookie year was awful. Last year was a much better year, but by that time he was off my roster because we only keep 3 in that league and I wasnt willing to take the risk on someone who wasnt producing and whose line appeared to implode the year prior.

 

for me to draft a rookie in the top 2-3 rounds I need to be reasonably certain of 2 things:

 

1) they are going to be the starter

2) They are going to be in a situation that sets them up for success.

 

both categories get broken down further.

 

an example:

 

are they likely to share carries with someone?

 

Is the line good enough to open holes for them?

 

Does the kid block well enough to be a 3 down back?

 

and so on

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apologies for it not being clear I meant fantasy re-drafts only.

 

For every zeke (supreme talent who walked into a perfect situation) there's probably 4 or 5 underperformers at least I'd guess. The list hawkeyes put together looks at first glance to be mostly misses and that's with lower picks than we see now. I guess I could see reaching in rounds 5 and 6 given today's nfl(heavy rb turnover), but much higher and you are as some have said drafting pretty close to the ceiling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apologies for it not being clear I meant fantasy re-drafts only.

 

For every zeke (supreme talent who walked into a perfect situation) there's probably 4 or 5 underperformers at least I'd guess. The list hawkeyes put together looks at first glance to be mostly misses and that's with lower picks than we see now. I guess I could see reaching in rounds 5 and 6 given today's nfl, but much higher and you are as some have said drafting pretty close to the ceiling.

 

Certainly seems to have a lot to do with what Elliott did last year. A bit of recency bias.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Certainly seems to have a lot to do with what Elliott did last year. A bit of recency bias.

For sure. No one on that level this yr, rarely is. While people are grabbing the rooks I'll be looking at established wrs, qbs, and tes and wait to grab whoever falls later at rb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we go by the first 5 rounds as being early this is what I come up with for a list. These are ADPs from standard scoring mocks on FFC.

 

2017 - Leonard Fournette 2.07, Christian McCaffrey 3.03, Dalvin Cook 3.05, Joe Mixon 3.12

2016 - Ezekiel Elliott 1.06

2015 - Melvin Gordon 4.04, Ameer Abdullah 4.08, Todd Gurley 5.07

2014 - None Taken

2013 - Giovani Bernard 4.06, Montee Ball 5.05

2012 - Doug Martin 3.01, Trent Richardson 3.05

2011 - Mark Ingram 4.11

2010 - Ryan Mathews 2.03, Jahvid Best 4.02

Now post all of their first year stats and we'll see what the % of rookie RB's are busts. Mystery solved!

 

I like Dalvin Cook the best of the bunch. Murray Is barely practicing and McKinnon is a role player. 50/50 split at worst. I like Mixon the least of the bunch. All signs point to Hill leading the backfield at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now post all of their first year stats and we'll see what the % of rookie RB's are busts. Mystery solved!

 

I like Dalvin Cook the best of the bunch. Murray Is barely practicing and McKinnon is a role player. 50/50 split at worst. I like Mixon the least of the bunch. All signs point to Hill leading the backfield at this point.

I like him, but there are two things I dont like.

 

1) his line. not great.

2) his problems hanging onto the football. also not great.

 

#2 is coachable for many RB's but some never resolve that issue.

 

it may be a case where the coach has already resolved it, or it may take a year. My problem with selecting this kid high in any redraft is if they decide to sit him and coach him up, you are wasting a pick.

 

the other problem with #2 is that you cant really figure out the odds of this happening or being resolved because that varies from person to person.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like him, but there are two things I dont like.

 

1) his line. not great.

2) his problems hanging onto the football. also not great.

 

#2 is coachable for many RB's but some never resolve that issue.

 

it may be a case where the coach has already resolved it, or it may take a year. My problem with selecting this kid high in any redraft is if they decide to sit him and coach him up, you are wasting a pick.

 

the other problem with #2 is that you cant really figure out the odds of this happening or being resolved because that varies from person to person.

 

Cook is going after Elliott in almost every draft format yet you're worried about wasting a draft pick on Cook based on a worry of him getting benched. The mentality of fantasy football people is very fascinating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Cook is going after Elliott in almost every draft format yet you're worried about wasting a draft pick on Cook based on a worry of him getting benched. The mentality of fantasy football people is very fascinating.

hey, there are a lot of rookies that find the bench because the cannot hang onto the football.

 

it is a legitimate concern.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hey, there are a lot of rookies that find the bench because the cannot hang onto the football.

 

it is a legitimate concern.

 

I agree but is Elliott not playing at all due to suspension and then he still has risk of not performing well when he returns. I just find it funny that so many consider Elliott to be such a lock for stud production yet so many other players are too risky. It's entertaining.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree but is Elliott not playing at all due to suspension and then he still has risk of not performing well when he returns. I just find it funny that so many consider Elliott to be such a lock for stud production yet so many other players are too risky. It's entertaining.

It's really true. How many RBs have had great years in great offenses and just didn't pan out the following year? Feels like all of them sometimes. I'm almost shocked when a top runner doesn't fall out of the top 12 year after a big season. Schedule harder, defenses catch up, ball doesn't bounce the same, so many factors at play. I still say he serves 0 games and starts the season week 1 though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont have numbers to support, but I suspect 50-65% of the time when a RB is drafted in round 1 or 2 he becomes the starter within 2 years.

 

of those, who become the starter, a quarter flame out quickly and become career backups or leave the NFL.

roughly a quarter become mediocre starters until someone replaces them.

the rest generally become good long term starters.

Did you guys know that 72% of statistics are made up on the spot?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did you guys know that 72% of statistics are made up on the spot?

This is not true, the number was far less, 54% based on an extended study of quoted statistics lacking peer review. Even so, that's a big number.

 

I'm a rookie RB convert. I was burned a bunch maybe 10 years ago and thus swore them off replacing the picks with WR2s. The recent trend has me considering them again. Martin, Richardson, Gurley, Elliott are guys that carried their teams late in their rookie years. Nixon seems to be that kind of guy, slow start (Zeke started a bit slow) while sharing not a lot of touches but could easily take over and be basically Elliott by the fantasy playoff time.

 

My rank:

1. McCaffrey

2. Cook (like him more relative to his ADP)

3. Mixon (late season championship winner written all over him)

4. Fournette (too many concerns for my taste BUT I said the same about Gurley who had a nice rookie season so he's not on my DND)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still remember getting burned by jj

arrington...that said I do recognize the NFL has changed with rbs and the amount of turnover at the position. I just won't advocate taking one so highly you pass on other solid players at other positions simply because the payoff takes a while into the season, if ever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still remember getting burned by jj

arrington...that said I do recognize the NFL has changed with rbs and the amount of turnover at the position. I just won't advocate taking one so highly you pass on other solid players at other positions simply because the payoff takes a while into the season, if ever.

 

Ryan Matthews for me.

Thought he would slide right into LT dominance, and got him in the 2nd to pair with AP.

 

Redeemed two years ago by getting Gurley in the 5th while he was still recovering from the injury, and Yeldon in the 8th to bridge the early season gap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had never ever taken a rookie rb in the 1st until last year when I got Zeke at 1.09. That worked out well for me.

 

Even though I agree rbs acclimate to the NFL game the easiest/quickest I still don't go into any draft looking to pick one early.

 

Would much rather have the known workhorse lower ceiling/higher floor guy like Miller or Crowell over someone like Cook or Mixon or even Fournette.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had never ever taken a rookie rb in the 1st until last year when I got Zeke at 1.09. That worked out well for me.

 

Even though I agree rbs acclimate to the NFL game the easiest/quickest I still don't go into any draft looking to pick one early.

 

Would much rather have the known workhorse lower ceiling/higher floor guy like Miller or Crowell over someone like Cook or Mixon or even Fournette.

well, I rarely draft a rookie to be my RB1. Usually when I draft one, I draft for an RB2 or RB3 and that usually happens when I am unhappy with the RB2 talent available.

 

I have no doubt that at least one of this years rookies will have a huge season. but some of them wont really do well until year 2.

 

at the end of the day, I dont go chasing after rookies with high draft picks, I generally let the draft come to me, and if a rookie falls into my lap I take him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I agree but is Elliott not playing at all due to suspension and then he still has risk of not performing well when he returns. I just find it funny that so many consider Elliott to be such a lock for stud production yet so many other players are too risky. It's entertaining.

well, a risk of not performing is one thing. Everyone has that.

 

a risk of other things such as off field issues is another. so is fumbling. these are both things that add to a players risk when you are considering drafting them.

 

There are other factors such as quality of O line, and the quality of the team around the RB that also play a factor.

 

these are all risks worth considering.

 

I pointed out that Dalvin Cook had an issue with putting the ball on the ground in college. you can choose to ignore it if you want. I'm just giving you the info. so dont shoot the messenger. Ignore it if you want.

 

like I said, some players resolve the issue without coaching, some require coaching to get over it, and some never get over it.

 

Personally If I was going to draft him, I'd be wanting to watch some tape to see how bad it is.

 

but he and Mixon had the worst fumbling of all the top RB's drafted. I'm not gonna speak to this further. do what you want with the info.

 

You're welcome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well, a risk of not performing is one thing. Everyone has that.

 

a risk of other things such as off field issues is another. so is fumbling. these are both things that add to a players risk when you are considering drafting them.

 

There are other factors such as quality of O line, and the quality of the team around the RB that also play a factor.

 

these are all risks worth considering.

 

I pointed out that Dalvin Cook had an issue with putting the ball on the ground in college. you can choose to ignore it if you want. I'm just giving you the info. so dont shoot the messenger. Ignore it if you want.

 

like I said, some players resolve the issue without coaching, some require coaching to get over it, and some never get over it.

 

Personally If I was going to draft him, I'd be wanting to watch some tape to see how bad it is.

 

but he and Mixon had the worst fumbling of all the top RB's drafted. I'm not gonna speak to this further. do what you want with the info.

 

You're welcome.

 

The info is appreciated and it's also why I didn't draft Cook until the 4th round and not earlier. Also why I wouldn't really want to take Zeke until the 3rd round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×