Puzzles

[browndelivers 7]

Things I'm having trouble figuring out.

 

1. Why is Kerryon Johnson being drafted so high when he has a premier TD vulture (Blount) and passing-downs RB (Riddick), plus Abdullah, around him?

 

2. If Tyreek pulled off what he did last year with Alex Smith, shouldn't John Ross be able to do the same thing with Dalton this year? But Ross is pretty much undrafted. Are people overstating the health issue?

 

3. If Doyle had 80 catches last year without Luck, and if there's no clear cut #2 WR in Indy, aren't we talking about massive upside for him this year, at least in PPR? Or is Ebron really going to take that much share?

 

4. I can't quite buy Kareem Hunt in the 1st round, which pretty much means at all. Slowed down 2nd half of the year. Ware is healthy and was effective last time active. O Line is terrible. D is terrible, so worse game scripts.

 

5. Lower-end WRs. Logic tells me that Stills should dominate targets in Miami. But I still can't seem to find a way to get him to anywhere near 80/1000/5+. He just doesn't seem to be that alpha receiver. Anyone see something different?

 

 

[jrokh 568]

Is the 7th or 8th round really that high for Keryon? Some of the Hype is attributable to the Lions trading up to get him and needing a bellcow type for years. He also performed decently in the pre-season and there you have it.

[kutulu 1,545]

Abdullah sucks, Blount is best as the 2, in the one two punch. KJ is legit, imo.

[seafoam1 1,879]

Why don't you look at Kareem Hunt's last few games last year and reexplain how he slowed down the second half of the year.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I don't get the slowed down premise. He was less productive in the middle of the year, but at the end he ramped it back up again.

[seafoam1 1,879]

How is John Ross = Tyreek Hill? And how is Cincinnati and Andy Dalton = Kansas City and Alex Smith?

[SpenceToons 70]

Also, in KC Tyreek Hill didn't really have anyone who would overshadow him like A.J. Green will over John Ross. That said, it's an easy call to make to say that Ross should outperform his ADP.

[redsrback 30]

I think Detroit pulled a Cleveland move. Instead of fixing there offensive line for Abdullah they threw more paint on the wall. Meanwhile they still dont have a number 1 WR.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Ross is a really good example. I don't think he has good enough hands to compare him to Hill. It takes the right coach to utilize Hill, since most coaches make it seem like it's hard to deviate from using a receiver in a standard way. He will pop a few long TDS this year and wow people. He will not be consistent imo though

[We Tigers 71]

A few thoughts...

 

1. Blount has really only been a top-tier TD vulture during his time with the Patriots. In 49 games as a Patriot, he scored 34 rushing TDs. In the other 67 games of his career, he's had just 17 TDs.

 

2. I would argue that Alex Smith/Andy Reid/Matt Nagy is a better combo than Andy Dalton/Bill Lazor. Also, Hill had a full year of impact plays as a rookie before last year, whereas John Ross's rookie year consisted of 1 rushing attempt and 0 receptions. But I do think he's a good late round flyer regardless.

 

3. Doyle is just a dude. He got a zillion dumpoffs because that's what Jacoby Brissett was good at. Ebron is more of the move tight end that Luck would likely use. I think there are too many question marks in Indy, many of which are still centered on Luck, to consider Doyle a top-12 TE.

 

4. A lot of RBs slow down in the second half of the year. I think the concerns you mention are already baked into Kareem Hunt's cost; if they weren't, he would probably be going at RB5 or RB6, not RB8 or RB9.

 

5. I don't think Stills will dominate targets or approach 80 catches unless a few things happen: DeVante Parker's busted finger lingers or really leaves him sucking, Amendola gets busted up as sometimes happens, Gesicki isn't as good as advertised, etc. But Stills has also averaged about 17 yard per reception with Ryan Tannehill, so he doesn't necessarily need 80 catches to have a great year. Also, there are only typically 16 or 17 guys a year who get 80 catches. It's a higher mark than Stills needs to pay off at his ludicrously cheap cost.

 

Good questions!

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

In 2016 Doyle had 59 rec for 584 Yds and 5 TDs playing with Luck. I wouldn't expect too much more. He is a reliable guy to have on the team, but he isn't dynamic enough to reach the middle to upper tier of tight ends unless he has an abnormally large TD count

[rallo 132]

In 2016 Doyle had 59 rec for 584 Yds and 5 TDs playing with Luck. I wouldn't expect too much more. He is a reliable guy to have on the team, but he isn't dynamic enough to reach the middle to upper tier of tight ends unless he has an abnormally large TD count

Do you think Luck will be more likely, coming off a major injury, to check down to shorter routes rather than extend the play and look downfield like he has in the past? If so, could this bump Doyle's production somewhat?

[weepaws 2,459]

No I don’t.

 

I think Luck will play the game he playes, it’s been successful for him, and I think he will continue playing the same.

 

I think Ebron if he can stay healthy will take away work from Doyle.

 

Expecally with his size inside the redzone

[seafoam1 1,879]

Luck loves himself some Doyle. He is the guy to own outside of Hilton.