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Derrick Henry train 2019

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The train doesn’t t start rolling until the second half of a season. 

 

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When you say pass, would you take him as a rb4, or passing based on his current ranking?  

 

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14 hours ago, weepaws said:

When you say pass, would you take him as a rb4, or passing based on his current ranking?  

 

Yeah, I really was vague, wasn't I.  Sorry.  RB4 is probably the earliest I'd consider him.  Currently his ADP is late 4th round and as a low end RB2.  As it stands, there's a 0.0% chance (barring injury), that's he's an RB4 come Labor Day (which is the general area of when my drafts are).  After 2.75 seasons of 'bleh', I'm not going to let 4 games completely change my mind.  Even then, it was only 2 big games, a decent game, and a "meh" game at the end.  I'm not buying.  He's going to have to have a good full season before he convinces me.

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Yeah I agree, he doesn’t even get going until the second half of the season, can’t dradt him as a rb2. 

Rb 3-4 at best.  

Non ppr. 

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honestly, he is a pretty one dimensional back.   he does not really catch a lot of passes.

hes a player, but in Today's NFL if you dont have the pass catching abilities, your upside will always be limited.

Unless he's top 3 in yards rushing, he will never be a RB1.   even then  it might be sketchy unless he turns into a TD machine.

I think this guy tops out as a top end RB2.   Keep in mind the phrase 'tops out' means thats the max upside.  Meaning you should draft him lower than this.

Likely as a mid range to top notch RB3. 

this way, if he gives you RB3 value, your team wont be hurt and you wont be disappointed.

if you draft him as a top notch RB2 (or higher) do so at your own risk (and peril)  This is the kind of draft pick that kills drafts if you pick him too high.

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4.5 / 4.2 / 4.9 YPC 

23 total touchdowns in 3 seasons (7.6 per) 

only 540 touches in 3 seasons (180 per)

Yes, Derrick Henry had a monster 2 game stretch against the Jags and Giants in 2018. 

No, he is not an elite or even good pass catching back.

However, opportunity is a big part of fantasy production. Henry was second fiddle to DeMarco for the start of his career and contended with the free agent signing of Dion Lewis last year. (I should know, I was sadly on the Dion Lewis hype train). 

Dion Lewis is still there but he never found a place in this offense. If Henry can get a consistant, nice volume of carries, i'd be fine with him as a low end RB2 with big time upside on any given week.

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I think Lewis is the key to being able to evaluate Henry.  

I think Lewis gets more work this season. 

Henry as a lot of upside, if you know what two or three games to start him. 

Im not so sure how many played him vs the jags last season , when he scored 47 non ppr ff points with only 17rushes. 

I think that game was more about the Jags def diffently given up.  

Really think Lewis as a rebound season with the Titans, he won’t surpass Henry as their rb1, but he will be more used.  

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Roger Saffold is a HUGE upgrade for this line.  They basically replaced the weakest player on the line, with arguably the strongest.

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Keep him in a dynasty or try and cash him in at a high value? Obviously it depends on the offer but unless I am blown away I will keep him. Love the o line upgrade and who knows what will happen the 1st two games this year.

 

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CHOO CHOO!!!!!!

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I would take him as a RB2/flex, but I would want solid depth behind him.

He finally broke out a bit last season, but still wasn't the most reliable.

He had two monster games and was pretty mediocre other than that.

If he can be a bit more consistent then he's a beast.

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12 team plus  league in a non ppr I see Henry no better then a rb3. 

Not only because of the reasons listed by polecatt, but I do think Lewis will out produce his last season stats.  

In a ppr league he’s a low rb3   

 

 

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I see him as a low end RB2 with a little bit of upside.

I acknowledge there is some upside there, but I havnt seen enough from him to feel he'd be worth more.

as mentioned earlier, because he is not generally a good pass catching back, he would REALLY need to get a lot of yards from Scrimage and/or a lot of TD's to be good enough to consider as a RB1 and I just dont think hes good enough.   The team isnt good enough either.

When you think of offensive powerhouses, Tennessee is not one team I think about.

Last years stats of 1059 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving is pretty close to what I would expect this year.   I dont know that I'd expect the same number of TD's.   That Tenessee offense as a whole isnt very good.   As such, I really cannot see him putting up much more in the way of stats than that.

If the offensive line turns out to be better than expected or if Mariota has a good season,  there is some upside there, but what really holds him back is that he is very much a one dimensional back.  he runs well, but does not catch much in the way of passes.

So his floor is considerably lower than other people who project to score the same amount of fantasy points this year.

 

 

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I'm on the train. not driving it but I'm aboard.

Vrable learned what he had in Mariota last year; a QB that won't win games by himself but won't lose em for you either.  So the Titans have put together a monster oline and are going to scheme for a power run game.

Henry gets stronger as the game goes on, and their defense will keep them in close games. He's an rb2 imo, even in ppr.

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I'm probably going to be left at the station. I'm higher on him than I've been in previous years, but the price for this train ticket is still likely to be higher than what I'm willing to pay. 

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Will I’ll be targeting Lewis and his adp.  

Right now it looks like around a rb4 plus.  

He’s going to be a steal. 

I’ll pass on Henry if he’s higher then a rb3.  

 

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The Titans offense looked 10 times better when they began to feature Henry towards the end. If the coaching staff is smart, they will ride him this year. He's the type of back who gets better the more carries he receives. He's so big and strong, he wears the other team out. I loved Henry last year (drafted him in the 3rd round) and I love him even more this year. 

 

and yes, I won the championship last season despite losing Gurley in the playoffs. Largely in part to Henry putting up big numbers.

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If the oline is really strong, Henry is going to be very good this year. I am not the biggest fan of his, in part because running backs that large just don't seem to live up to their potential in the NFL. I am hoping Mariota can stay healthy, because Lewis has some nice value in ppr this year. The price is probably going to be a little high for me, but I will target him if I draft a receiver in the first.

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I like Henry this year. Last season, mariota was injured all season, the #2 and #3 pass catching options were gone (Matthews and walker) and the interior o line was a problem.

Add a healthy mariota, safflod replacing Spain, the addition of Humphreys in the slot, and brown coming in to compete with Taylor and Sharpe for the #2 wr spot, should all only help henry. 

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I guess I dont get all the love in that offense and Lewis still there as the pass catcher.  Seems too hyped for ahere Id want to take him.

Also if the Titans want to be a power run defensive team then why are they adding WRs each year?  Seems like they have no clue what they want to be.

Davis a very high pick

Taywon an early 3rd

Aj Brown a 2nd

Humphries a fairly expensive slot FA this year.

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39 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I guess I dont get all the love in that offense and Lewis still there as the pass catcher.  Seems too hyped for ahere Id want to take him.

Also if the Titans want to be a power run defensive team then why are they adding WRs each year?  Seems like they have no clue what they want to be.

Davis a very high pick

Taywon an early 3rd

Aj Brown a 2nd

Humphries a fairly expensive slot FA this year.

They are acquiring offensive talent with zero plan on how to use them. What a joke that offense is. I wonder how long it will be until the league is rid of moron coaches who draft players without even a clue on how to use them

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4 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

They are acquiring offensive talent with zero plan on how to use them. What a joke that offense is. I wonder how long it will be until the league is rid of moron coaches who draft players without even a clue on how to use them

This situation will always exist.   too often owners get mixed up in affairs that coaches and GMs should be doing as well.   

I would be surprised if we ever got to a point where this is gone from the league.

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Mariota is the key, and I simply don’t think he all that good. 

He does get hurt a lot, but i dont think he can help those others produce.  

 

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On 6/21/2019 at 5:26 AM, weepaws said:

Mariota is the key, and I simply don’t think he all that good. 

He does get hurt a lot, but i dont think he can help those others produce.  

 

True. But at least tanehill is there instead of the black hole of Gabbert like last year.

They just need the qb to be efficient. Keep the defense out of the box. Mariota can do that. 

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Yes Mariota can manage the team, but that type of Qb production doesn’t help in ff.  

 

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On 2/25/2019 at 10:08 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, I really was vague, wasn't I.  Sorry.  RB4 is probably the earliest I'd consider him.  Currently his ADP is late 4th round and as a low end RB2.  As it stands, there's a 0.0% chance (barring injury), that's he's an RB4 come Labor Day (which is the general area of when my drafts are).  After 2.75 seasons of 'bleh', I'm not going to let 4 games completely change my mind.  Even then, it was only 2 big games, a decent game, and a "meh" game at the end.  I'm not buying.  He's going to have to have a good full season before he convinces me.

 

 

Oh yeah, remember when you said Gurley sucks and then he went on to have an AMAZING season.  Then, followed it up with another great season!   That's the kind of NFL football analysis we need around here.   

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Maulers1973 said:

 

 

Oh yeah, remember when you said Gurley sucks and then he went on to have an AMAZING season.  Then, followed it up with another great season!   That's the kind of NFL football analysis we need around here.   

 

 

Well, I don't remember saying he sucked, just over-rated.  I also believe I said I didn't trust him because people with ACL injuries have shaky futures.  I may have been a year or two early, but I think we're seeing that start with him now.

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Cool dance moves!   Do you call that the back pedal??     lol   

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On 6/24/2019 at 6:04 PM, weepaws said:

Yes Mariota can manage the team, but that type of Qb production doesn’t help in ff.  

 

No. You'd be a fool to have mariota or his receivers on your roster.

I was saying he can keep enough pressure off of Henry to allow him to succeed. 

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On 6/28/2019 at 10:03 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

Well, I don't remember saying he sucked, just over-rated.  I also believe I said I didn't trust him because people with ACL injuries have shaky futures.  I may have been a year or two early, but I think we're seeing that start with him now.

I think injured players are overrated a lot of the time.

It truly is rare when you have an ADP situation where you have an ACL surgery done, and are back in less than a year and just as productive as before.

I agree the medical technology has improved, but not to a point where this type of thing happens more often than not.

I also do not think you should look at one year of production and say- See its no issue.

To me, Any player with an ACL injury has an issue.   we do not know if that issue will rear it's ugly head today, tomorrow, or after the RB turns 30, but I'd agree that you take your chances when you value the player the same as a fully healthy player of the same caliber. 

while I do not see the quote Maulers refers to, I will not blame TBay for knocking Gurley down a few spots in his rankings due to injury.   The fact he had a good season or two since does not make him wrong.  it just means the issue hasnt become a problem at this point in Gurleys career.

The thing about projecting possible injuries..... none of us are doctors, and none of us get access to the players actual medical report, so any medical information is largely speculative.

it is rare that a doctor says a surgery was not successful.   but I'm sure it happens.   So when a person feels that someone is ranked too high due to an injury history, I'd argue it is a speculative assessment of a situation based on his own risk preferences (vs those of the person making the statement)  

The reality is.... each player has a range of values based on expected production.   you may adjust more (or less) for certain things than I do.   if everyone valued players the same, there would never be any trades.  this goes back to my first rule of fantasy football:

'There are times when you have to assume you are right and everyone else is wrong'

No need for mudslinging.   TBay has an opinion, Maulers, you have another.   and that's fine.

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I think he has 3 huge games.

And 13 ho hum games. Dude is big, but easy to tackle. Titans will rarely be in the positon to run. I am targeting him in the 4th round. So he will not be on any of my teams.

 

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CHOO FOCKING CHOO!!!

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He fell to me in a couple leagues.  Glad he did.

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Big first game!

Looks like he picked up where he left off

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