Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs

[The Football Guru 210]

The Chiefs likely held off on announcing what figures to be the eventual release of Tyreek Hill until they had his replacement in place, and Hardman will get the first chance to be that guy. Hardman has only played receiver for two years after arriving at Georgia as a defensive back, so Kansas City will be hoping they can teach him to be a pro receiver as quickly as they did Hill. Built in the Tyler Lockett/John Brown/Marquise Goodwin mold, Hardman projects to be the obvious field-stretching threat that Kansas City will almost certainly lose when Hill is gone. For what it's worth, he will bring value as a return man. Due to the offense in Kansas City, he'll be worth rostering in redraft leagues if he emerges as a starter during his rookie year, but it's going to take a long time for him to approach Hill's lofty production - if he ever does. Because of his landing spot, he may sneak into the first round of rookie drafts, although that feels like it would be a bit of a reach.

[cmh6476 748]

Don't know the dude but I like it.  Safe to print super bowl tix yet?

[The Football Guru 210]

Yeah, it may be too early for that 

[DocNiner 44]

I think Mahomes will be looking for him alot.

[DocNiner 44]

He won't get near Hill's numbers this year and it may take half a season to get in sync with Mahome but I could see him producing 500-600 receiving yards with 4-5 td's. Still not a.big fan of Sammy Watkins and his chances of producing bid WR1 numbers so if Mecole can accelerate.his development his yards & td's could take a jump..We know Mahomey's likes to chuck the rock so Hardman may get extra looks if they connect early. He landed in a good situation so now it's up to him to take his game to the next level.

[weepaws 2,452]

If Hill misses playing time, it’s a great landing spot.  

[stonewall 647]

The Hard Man

        

[rallo 132]

The Hard Man and Chark are going to win FF titles this year... I'm honestly waiting for Kupp to blow up so I can deal him with these guys ready to step in.

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,493]

3 minutes ago, rallo said:

The Hard Man and Chark are going to win FF titles this year... I'm honestly waiting for Kupp to blow up so I can deal him with these guys ready to step in.

That's great!  Hardman currently sitting on my bench, though, as I started Watkins instead.

[stonewall 647]

2 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

That's great!  Hardman currently sitting on my bench, though, as I started Watkins instead.

That bites.

Well....at least Axe would approve.

[thePRO 78]

Hardman is on my bench right now too. Need to remember that there's not a match up too tough for Mahomes and that offense...

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, rallo said:

The Hard Man and Chark are going to win FF titles this year... I'm honestly waiting for Kupp to blow up so I can deal him with these guys ready to step in.

lol

Hardman caught 2 passes today, on 5 targets.  If one of them wasn't an 83 yard TD, he'd have earned 2.4 PPR fantasy points for anyone foolish enough to have started him.

The only title he's going to win is "Biggest Red Herring" when Hill gets back.

[shutdown 40]

First, that’s his role in this offense.  He doesn’t have the receiving skills that Hill does, but he does take the top off the defense.  With all the weapons they have and Mahomes throwing him the ball, he’s going to be targeted deep and also has the chance to break one at any time.

Secondly, if you give him the TD he had called back on a hold last week he’s 5-135 and 2 TD’s, if you want to play the add/subtract the outlier plays game.   

Could he go out and have 1 catch for 12 yards next week, sure, but he’s a better bet than most to hit a big play each game in that offense. For sure he’s a low floor guy, but it only takes 1 reception each week for him to be WR2 in your lineup.  

Agree once Hill is back he’s useless, but he may be valuable for another week or two and he’s still on some waiver wires.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

7 hours ago, rallo said:

The Hard Man and Chark are going to win FF titles this year... I'm honestly waiting for Kupp to blow up so I can deal him with these guys ready to step in.

Dorsett may be in that category also with Brown being released

[Gepetto 977]

2 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Dorsett may be in that category also with Brown being released

And Edelman hurt.

[rallo 132]

2 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Dorsett may be in that category also with Brown being released

I agree, he commands 3 WR sets right now, but I think his role increases as the season progresses.

[AxeElf 787]

25 minutes ago, shutdown said:

Secondly, if you give him the TD he had called back on a hold last week

I can't do that because if the hold had not occurred, Mahomes would have been sacked and the pass never would have been thrown.

[IGotWorms 3,297]

I don’t know what to do with this guy going forward. He’s been scoring well but it’s all on long bomb type plays. Those can’t happen every week right? 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I was feeling dumb for starting him over Chark, Sutton until that bomb. The only league I have him in I am Deeeeeeep at receiver. Hill, Arob Kupp, Hardman, Sutton, Chark, Washington. I may try to go get Dorsett off the ww if he is available. 

[zftcg 84]

I think KC WRs in general are turning into a crapshoot. After the last two weeks everyone seems to be in on Robinson and Hardman because they've been catching the TDs. But as a Watkins owner, the fact that he's still getting the most targets is encouraging, even if he hasn't done a ton with them. Also, I think he will retain the most value once Hill returns.

Still, the nature of that offense means that with the exception of Kelce, you'll never feel completely confident rolling out any options in that offense on a weekly basis. Mahomes has demonstrated that he'll throw the ball to anyone.

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

I don’t know what to do with this guy going forward. He’s been scoring well but it’s all on long bomb type plays. Those can’t happen every week right? 

In most cases no, but on this offense with that QB, why not?

In Week 2 against the Raiders he had a long catch of 42 with a TD and should've had another long TD of 70+ yards if it wasn't for a McCoy holding call.

Yesterday a long of 83 when he just turned on the jets and no one got close. 

He's filling in admirably for Tyreek Hill but people are just treating him as a rental but why? Mahomes can support 3 startable fantasy WRs and a TE on a weekly basis. He's a handcuff to not only Tyreek but also Sammy Watkins who has a long injury history. He's routinely being lined up in the slot and is burning opposing defenses. He's making it very difficult on Reid to take him off the field even when Hill returns. I'll continue to start him in my flex or WR3 spot and even when Hill returns he's a valuable stash on your bench. 

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Those can’t happen every week right? 

 

3 minutes ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

In most cases no, but on this offense with that QB, why not?

2/51/0

4/61/0

3/70/0

4/69/0

1/13/0

4/46/0

4/74/0

1/42/0

That's why not.

Those are games by Tyreek Hill in 2018 (the last one was in the AFC Championship Game).

If Tyreek freaking Hill is going to be that kind of inconsistent in this offense, what's his clone gonna be when he gets back?

7 minutes ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

In Week 2 against the Raiders he had a long catch of 42 with a TD and should've had another long TD of 70+ yards if it wasn't for a McCoy holding call.

If it wasn't for McCoy holding, Mahomes would have been sacked and the pass would have never been thrown.

[zftcg 84]

19 minutes ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

He's filling in admirably for Tyreek Hill but people are just treating him as a rental but why? Mahomes can support 3 startable fantasy WRs and a TE on a weekly basis. He's a handcuff to not only Tyreek but also Sammy Watkins who has a long injury history. He's routinely being lined up in the slot and is burning opposing defenses. He's making it very difficult on Reid to take him off the field even when Hill returns. I'll continue to start him in my flex or WR3 spot and even when Hill returns he's a valuable stash on your bench. 

I mean, all things are possible with this KC offense. But I can't recall any offense that ever sustained four pass catchers as reliable fantasy starters. The 2004 Colts had Harrison, Wayne and Stokely all put up 1,000+/10, but no one else had more than 500 yards receiving. The 2007 Pats had Welker and Moss, but the third option was Stallworth (46/697/3).

Best example I can find is 2013 Broncos. DThomas and Decker both had over 1,200/10, while JThomas and Welker each put up 750/10. Still, while Julius was incredibly valuable as a TE that year, I don't remember Welker being a super-solid option. I guess if you had him you were starting him, but probably as a WR2/3. And again, this is the absolute best case scenario.

Once Hill comes back, Mahomes will have four talented WRs plus the best TE in the game to throw to. Again, anything is possible, but the odds are strongly against all of them being startable weekly options. The most likely scenario is that there will be plenty of ups, but with a 2/20 always lurking for any one guy. In fact, assuming Hill comes back at full strength the most likely outcome is that only he and Watkins are regular starters ROS. They will also be capable of putting up duds, but they are more likely to be the focus of Reid's gameplan than Hardman and Robinson.

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

Is there a chance that Hardman comes out and throws up a goose egg this week or any week for that matter? Absolutely. But that's the case for a lot of WR's in this league. Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley had a fantastic Week 1 and 2 and both put up duds in Week 3 with Ridley only receiving 1 target for 6 yards in a game Ryan threw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's (typical Mahomes game). It can happen and will happen with any WR at any time. But the upside is too high here for a guy that was basically a free add for your fantasy team. The bottom line is he's produced two weeks in a row and has the capability to blow the top off a defense on any given play and put you over the top in your matchup. I also see Reid involving him more on jet sweeps and the like. If he can produce what Tyreek Hill produced his rookie season with Alex Smith under center I would gladly take that! I'm planning on riding this wave as long as it lasts and if he throws up an inevitable 2 for 23 game then so be it. Mecole Hardman is the very definition of low floor and high ceiling. I want every piece of this offense I can possibly acquire from a guy like Mecole Hardman to a guy like Darrel WIlliams. And again, even when Hill returns, I still feel Hardman is at worst worth a spot on your bench as a handcuff for Hill and a notoriously injured Sammy Watkins. If you have Hardman you either invested a very late round pick, acquired him for free prior to Week 1 like I did, or spent a small percentage of FAAB or waiver priority after Week 1 after all the other rookie WR's showed out. The return on investment Hardman is providing is well worth it as he's already helped put me over the top to get me two wins on his two starts. 

 

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

Is there a chance that Hardman comes out and throws up a goose egg this week or any week for that matter? Absolutely. But that's the case for a lot of WR's in this league. Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley had a fantastic Week 1 and 2 and both put up duds in Week 3 with Ridley only receiving 1 target for 6 yards in a game Ryan threw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's (typical Mahomes game). It can happen and will happen with any WR at any time. But the upside is too high here for a guy that was basically a free add for your fantasy team. The bottom line is he's produced two weeks in a row and has the capability to blow the top off a defense on any given play and put you over the top in your matchup. I also see Reid involving him more on jet sweeps and the like. If he can produce what Tyreek Hill produced his rookie season with Alex Smith under center I would gladly take that! I'm planning on riding this wave as long as it lasts and if he throws up an inevitable 2 for 23 game then so be it. Mecole Hardman is the very definition of low floor and high ceiling. I want every piece of this offense I can possibly acquire from a guy like Mecole Hardman to a guy like Darrel WIlliams. And again, even when Hill returns, I still feel Hardman is at worst worth a spot on your bench as a handcuff for Hill and a notoriously injured Sammy Watkins. If you have Hardman you either invested a very late round pick, acquired him for free prior to Week 1 like I did, or spent a small percentage of FAAB or waiver priority after Week 1 after all the other rookie WR's also showed out. The return on investment Hardman is providing is well worth it as he's already helped put me over the top to get me two wins on his two starts. 

Yeah, if you have a marginal team where low floor, high ceiling dart throws are your only chance to break .500 on the season, then Mecole Hardman is as good as any (at least until Hill gets back).

[stonewall 647]

With Tyreek slated to miss another game and Sammy shaky, who's firing up The Hard Man one more time?

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,493]

3 minutes ago, stonewall said:

With Tyreek slated to miss another game and Sammy shaky, who's firing up The Hard Man one more time?

I have Watkins and I have hardman as well. I will be starting hardman if I Watkins sits.

[Apparition 1]

5 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

I have Watkins and I have hardman as well. I will be starting hardman if I Watkins sits.

I have both as well, what are you going to do if Watkins plays, knowing he has a sore hammy?

[DrG 94]

Hill’s week to week numbers in 2018 were overshadowed at times by his monster scoring weeks especially when KC was also using him on returns.  

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, Apparition said:

I have both as well, what are you going to do if Watkins plays, knowing he has a sore hammy?

Axually I think Watkins has a sore shoulder, not a sore hammy, which is somewhat less of a concern.  As long as he doesn't fall on his shoulder or something, he can probably play through the pain, as opposed to a hammy that can act up and take a player out of a game at any time.

More concerning should be that Watkins has averaged only 10.2 PPR ppg since his Week 1 explosion.  Hopefully you have better options (although I wouldn't count Hardman among them).

[weepaws 2,452]

Watch out for Robinson in this game. 

[Apparition 1]

On 10/5/2019 at 8:30 PM, AxeElf said:

Axually I think Watkins has a sore shoulder, not a sore hammy, which is somewhat less of a concern.  As long as he doesn't fall on his shoulder or something, he can probably play through the pain, as opposed to a hammy that can act up and take a player out of a game at any time.

More concerning should be that Watkins has averaged only 10.2 PPR ppg since his Week 1 explosion.  Hopefully you have better options (although I wouldn't count Hardman among them).

You were wrong. bad hammy!

[AxeElf 787]

13 hours ago, Apparition said:

You were wrong. bad hammy!

It was both, axually.

You should know better than to put "Axe Elf" and "wrong" in the same sentence.

[BirdGang 312]

Anyone rolling him out this week if either Reek or Sammy out?

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,493]

22 minutes ago, BirdGang said:

Anyone rolling him out this week if either Reek or Sammy out?

Not sure.