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riversco

minor update on 2020 electoral math

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Currently, Trump is polling strong in Florida.  Polling has Trump ahead of all candidates in Florida except for Biden and that's a tie. Old retirees love Trump.    We know Ohio is already in Trump's pocket.  All Trump needs to do to win re-election (under this configuration) is win one of Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.   Alternatively, there is one state Trump is keen to flip:  Virginia

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/29/trump-virginia-elections-1243100

 

The president has repeatedly gone after Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam since revelations surfaced earlier this year that he wore blackface in the 1980s.

The White House offensive in Virginia highlights Trump’s central challenge in 2020. His popularity is underwater in many of the states that powered his upset victory in 2016. In response, Trump has started tearing down Democratic candidates, while searching for blue states that he might turn in his favor.

“Trump won narrowly in a number of states in 2016. He has to defend all those states and then find a few places where he can effectively go on offense. Virginia should be one of those states,” said Phil Cox, who managed the 2009 gubernatorial campaign of Bob McDonnell, the last statewide Republican officeholder in Virginia.

While Virginia is an early focus, campaign officials have discussed making a play in New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado and even New Mexico — a state that Trump lost by 8 percentage points. The conclusion by special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation that Trump’s campaign didn't conspire with Russia in 2016 has his political team feeling upbeat and confident that a cloud hanging over the president’s bid for a second term has been lifted.

Trump’s pollsters recently launched surveys to gauge the president’s strength in more than a dozen states, including Virginia. The campaign has also tapped Jason Simmons, a veteran of Southern politics and a Trump 2016 alumnus, as a regional political director whose responsibilities will include helping to oversee the state. Field staffers are expected to be dispatched to Virginia in the coming months.

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Dems know they are cooked. That is why they are laying ground work for 5 years of lawsuits amd deflection. Biden is the left equivalent of McCain or Dole. Give the old guy his nomination and send him to slaughter.

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He’s still atop the official Vegas odds by a decent margin with Biden behind him.

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2020 is already locked in. How's Trump looking for 2024?

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4 minutes ago, lod001 said:

How's Trump looking for 2024?

I’ll take the bet against him in 24

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Trump won't flip Virginia...  The Northern Virginia idiots love to vote Democrat way too much...

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Polls are sh1t. Go vote for Trump.

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If the past is any indicator i wouldnt look put a ton of stock in presidential polls.  Like cdub said..go vote

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I am dreading election year, even from the other side of the earth. I don't really even care who wins. Just get it over with.

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In all likelihood, it's going to depend on the economy.

If it stays strong to election day, people aren't going to want to rock the boat and vote against Trump.

If some bubble bursts and hurts the economy, Trump's out.

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I’d love to see Trump win if nothing more than to see the liberals kicking and screaming again 

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4 hours ago, patweisers44 said:

If the past is any indicator i wouldnt look put a ton of stock in presidential polls.  Like cdub said..go vote

Presidential polls traditionally skew left.  Once in a while they lean right but its a safe bet to say they lean left.  So when you see Florida leaning Trump vs everyone, you can feel safer banking that in Trump's column.  A state slightly leaning democrat is a shakier prospect.  But there have been SEVERAL presidential election cycles where the final results were better for republicans than ANY poll taken.

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58 minutes ago, riversco said:

Presidential polls traditionally skew left.  Once in a while they lean right but its a safe bet to say they lean left.  So when you see Florida leaning Trump vs everyone, you can feel safer banking that in Trump's column.  A state slightly leaning democrat is a shakier prospect.  But there have been SEVERAL presidential election cycles where the final results were better for republicans than ANY poll taken.

I think this for at least these 2 reasons:
1.) Polls conducted by liberal media
2.) Liberals a hell of lot more likely to partake in polls. 

 

 

It seems, if one were to wake up from a coma that he or she, would be led to believe that the Republicans and Trump are evil, and liberals controlled the world.
TV, social Media, celebs, holy moly.  What a group effort.

Late night TV hosts spend the first 15 minutes just trashing Trump. All of them. Even Leno said he wouldn't want to be a part of late night now. He said its "all negative".


Basically it's the media vs the silent majority.  So far, the silent majority has won. 

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1 hour ago, riversco said:

Presidential polls traditionally skew left.  Once in a while they lean right but its a safe bet to say they lean left.  So when you see Florida leaning Trump vs everyone, you can feel safer banking that in Trump's column.  A state slightly leaning democrat is a shakier prospect.  But there have been SEVERAL presidential election cycles where the final results were better for republicans than ANY poll taken.

Polls are not very meaningful right now (if they ever are) as it is trump vs any hypothetical Democrat. Until there is a nominee, it's a waste of time.

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Trumps got Florida in the bag don’t even worry about that lol

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5 hours ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Polls are not very meaningful right now (if they ever are) as it is trump vs any hypothetical Democrat. Until there is a nominee, it's a waste of time.

"Hypothetical democrat" probably polls better than any name in the ring.

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6 hours ago, iam90sbaby said:

Trumps got Florida in the bag don’t even worry about that lol

Thinking like that about Hillary cost me $250 last time. Now I'm happier to reach in my pocket to pay BLS than to be enduring her presidency, don't get me wrong, but like cdub says, go vote.

Especially Florida, damn place has a few dozen electoral votes and the results are always 50.1%-49.9%. Due to all the nailbiting elections they've gone through, I can probably name more Florida counties than the other 48 (non-Michigan) states combined even though I've never been there.

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2 hours ago, Voltaire said:

Thinking like that about Hillary cost me $250 last time. Now I'm happier to reach in my pocket to pay BLS than to be enduring her presidency, don't get me wrong, but like cdub says, go vote.

Especially Florida, damn place has a few dozen electoral votes and the results are always 50.1%-49.9%. Due to all the nailbiting elections they've gone through, I can probably name more Florida counties than the other 48 (non-Michigan) states combined even though I've never been there.

I’m not saying he’s got the entire election in the bag, but he’s definitely got Florida. People love him here. But I understand your point. 

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10 hours ago, iam90sbaby said:

Trumps got Florida in the bag don’t even worry about that lol

I'm worried about it. I know the cities pad their numbers especially Dade county.

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20 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I'm worried about it. I know the cities pad their numbers especially Dade county.

He will win every county in Florida in except Orange, Dade, Duval, Gainesville and whatever county Tallahassee is in. Trump is loved where I’m at, Seminole County. I was just at the beach 2 weeks ago and some guy was driving up and down the beach in his Jeep with a Trump flag on it, Every time he drove by everyone went nuts. Was pretty cool, never saw something like that organically before. 

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17 hours ago, Djgb13 said:

I’d love to see Trump win if nothing more than to see the liberals kicking and screaming again 

You forgot screaming at the sky and protests. Libs sure do enjoy their protest marches. 

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6 hours ago, iam90sbaby said:

He will win every county in Florida in except Orange, Dade, Duval, Gainesville and whatever county Tallahassee is in. Trump is loved where I’m at, Seminole County. I was just at the beach 2 weeks ago and some guy was driving up and down the beach in his Jeep with a Trump flag on it, Every time he drove by everyone went nuts. Was pretty cool, never saw something like that organically before. 

When I lived there, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties were pretty liberal. Has that changed? That was 10-15 years ago now. 

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20 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

When I lived there, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties were pretty liberal. Has that changed? That was 10-15 years ago now. 

No it’s still pretty liberal I was trying to include all the major cities. But it’s the most likely to flip it one we’re going to. 

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On 5/25/2019 at 1:49 PM, lod001 said:

2020 is already locked in. How's Trump looking for 2024?

We need to get Dan Crenshaw mainstream around 2022

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