End of World is now set at 2050... Goalposts moved...

[posty 2,296]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050?utm_source=vicetwitterus

A harrowing scenario analysis of how human civilization might collapse in coming decades due to climate change has been endorsed by a former Australian defense chief and senior royal navy commander.

The analysis, published by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, a think-tank in Melbourne, Australia, describes climate change as “a near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization” and sets out a plausible scenario of where business-as-usual could lead over the next 30 years.

The paper argues that the potentially “extremely serious outcomes” of climate-related security threats are often far more probable than conventionally assumed, but almost impossible to quantify because they “fall outside the human experience of the last thousand years.”

On our current trajectory, the report warns, “planetary and human systems [are] reaching a ‘point of no return’ by mid-century, in which the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of nations and the international order.”

The only way to avoid the risks of this scenario is what the report describes as “akin in scale to the World War II emergency mobilization”—but this time focused on rapidly building out a zero-emissions industrial system to set in train the restoration of a safe climate.

The scenario warns that our current trajectory will likely lock in at least 3 degrees Celsius (C) of global heating, which in turn could trigger further amplifying feedbacks unleashing further warming. This would drive the accelerating collapse of key ecosystems “including coral reef systems, the Amazon rainforest and in the Arctic.”

The results would be devastating. Some one billion people would be forced to attempt to relocate from unlivable conditions, and two billion would face scarcity of water supplies. Agriculture would collapse in the sub-tropics, and food production would suffer dramatically worldwide. The internal cohesion of nation-states like the US and China would unravel.

“Even for 2°C of warming, more than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end,” the report notes.

The new policy briefing is written by David Spratt, Breakthrough’s research director and Ian Dunlop, a former senior executive of Royal Dutch Shell who previously chaired the Australian Coal Association.

In the briefing’s foreword, retired Admiral Chris Barrie—Chief of the Australian Defence Force from 1998 to 2002 and former Deputy Chief of the Australian Navy—commends the paper for laying “bare the unvarnished truth about the desperate situation humans, and our planet, are in, painting a disturbing picture of the real possibility that human life on Earth may be on the way to extinction, in the most horrible way.”

Barrie now works for the Climate Change Institute at Australian National University, Canberra.

Spratt told Motherboard that a key reason the risks are not understood is that “much knowledge produced for policymakers is too conservative. Because the risks are now existential, a new approach to climate and security risk assessment is required using scenario analysis.”

Last October, Motherboard reported on scientific evidence that the UN’s summary report for government policymakers on climate change—whose findings were widely recognized as “devastating”—were in fact too optimistic.

While the Breakthrough scenario sets out some of the more ‘high end’ risk possibilities, it is often not possible to meaningfully quantify their probabilities. As a result, the authors emphasize that conventional risk approaches tend to downplay worst-case scenarios despite their plausibility.

Spratt and Dunlop’s 2050 scenario illustrates how easy it could be to end up in an accelerating runaway climate scenario which would lead to a largely uninhabitable planet within just a few decades.

“A high-end 2050 scenario finds a world in social breakdown and outright chaos,” said Spratt. “But a short window of opportunity exists for an emergency, global mobilization of resources, in which the logistical and planning experiences of the national security sector could play a valuable role.”

[RLLD 3,455]

Crap, I had the square with 2045 in it....

[LOD01 185]

Sounds good to me. I'll be really old and hopefully assisted suicide is up and running. If true it would absolutely suck to be born now.

[The Observer 641]

Awesome.  that's around the time I should be dying. It all works out.

[NorthernVike 2,079]

Dammit, I bet the under. 

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,493]

1 hour ago, The Observer said:

Awesome.  that's around the time I should be dying. It all works out.

You'll be dead long before that. The damage that TDS has already had upon your heart with all that stress has pretty much guaranteed that. 

That and all those Twinkies too.

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,493]

should we take bets on when the next goal post is going to be moved? I say within 2 months they move that date again.

[tanatastic 2,061]

By that time global cooling will be the new crisis.

[The Observer 641]

45 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

You'll be dead long before that. The damage that TDS has already had upon your heart with all that stress has pretty much guaranteed that. 

That and all those Twinkies too.

I'm less than 10% bodyfat. That's about 95 percentile of men over 40.  No Twinkies in this temple, chubby. 

[The Observer 641]

45 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

should we take bets on when the next goal post is going to be moved? I say within 2 months they move that date again.

When will the next "caravan" be headed our way? 

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,493]

1 hour ago, The Observer said:

I'm less than 10% bodyfat. That's about 95 percentile of men over 40.  No Twinkies in this temple, chubby. 

Sure you are, buddy.  Sure you are.

[The Observer 641]

7 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Sure you are, buddy.  Sure you are.

If it makes you feel better to think I'm soft and flabby like you, then by all means, think that.  I want you to feel comfortable when corresponding with me. 

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,493]

1 hour ago, The Observer said:

If it makes you feel better to think I'm soft and flabby like you, then by all means, think that.  I want you to feel comfortable when corresponding with me. 

Ask anyone in this forum and they'll tell you they have less than 10% body fat too.  

Of course, the difference is that you're a known liar so no one really believes anything you say.

Sorry if the truth hurts but it needs to be said.  You'll be okay, pudgy.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Fine by me. I doubt I'll have much quality of life past 70 anyway, and I ain't breeding. 

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

4 hours ago, The Observer said:

I'm less than 10% bodyfat. That's about 95 percentile of men over 40.  No Twinkies in this temple, chubby. 

You'll die of assinmouth disease.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

These whackjob climate freaks flying to all these gatherings................did they never hear of video conferencing? Maybe we could last to 2100 if they'd stop flying.

[Cdub100 3,366]

I died when we cancelled net neutrality. 

[shorepatrol 1,735]

1 hour ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Fine by me. I doubt I'll have much quality of life past 70 anyway, and I ain't breeding. 

Not many have a quality of life past 70. 

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

50 minutes ago, shorepatrol said:

Not many have a quality of life past 70. 

Not if I catch them doing the speed limit in the left lane. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

The problem is that people have no faith that government could fix it if this were true.  So this is just doomsaying.

[The Observer 641]

6 minutes ago, riversco said:

The problem is that people have no faith that government could fix it if this were true.  So this is just doomsaying.

I think a good government plan is to pretend it's not happening and just do nothing.  

[Voltaire 4,554]

4 hours ago, The Observer said:

I think a good government plan is to pretend it's not happening and just do nothing.  

I see you've been granted access to classified documents.

[sderk 1,040]

Here we go again:

 

 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

With a prediction of limited land and resources, the best idea for any country is to let in as many people as possible.

[Cruzer 1,992]

"A harrowing scenario analysis..." 

Meh,  320 years ago Newton predicted the end of earth around 2060.

[The Observer 641]

2 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

With a prediction of limited land and resources, the best idea for any country is to let in as many people as possible.

And as many unwanted babies as possible

[drobeski 3,061]

18 hours ago, tanatastic said:

By that time global cooling will be the new crisis.

Again

[sderk 1,040]

1 hour ago, The Observer said:

And as many unwanted babies as possible

Any abortion that is not involved with rape should include the termination of the mother and the father. Easy peasy.

[naomi 343]

Varying takes with astrophysicists now but it has been thought for a while we're entering a solar minimum that may be cyclical and which last flared...anti pun not intended, with the Maunder Minimum in the 1700's. Mini ice age.

Apparently some now think the next cycle will be hopping though.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,566]

On 6/5/2019 at 7:18 AM, Cruzer said:

"A harrowing scenario analysis..." 

Meh,  320 years ago Newton predicted the end of earth around 2060.

So basically man has only knocked 10 years off. Keep with the climate change boys. It’s insignificant 

[supermike80 1,285]

1 hour ago, naomi said:

Varying takes with astrophysicists now but it has been thought for a while we're entering a solar minimum that may be cyclical and which last flared...anti pun not intended, with the Maunder Minimum in the 1700's. Mini ice age.

Apparently some now think the next cycle will be hopping though.

Ive read that a few times...It's an interesting piece of reading

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1135628/weather-forecast-long-range-climate-change-space-weather-solar-minimum-space-news

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,493]

On 6/5/2019 at 11:22 AM, The Observer said:

And as many unwanted babies as possible

Not sure how you slipped thru.

[frank 2,144]

I feel fine.

[sderk 1,040]

If some are so concerned that the end of the world is coming, and they are thinking it is terrible for humanity, why are they still having kids?

[jerryskids 5,169]

The answer is nuclear, and we are generations behind.  I would support billions of dollars to bring us up to speed on nuclear.  

Solar and wind energy are mice nuts and will never support our electrical needs.  That's just part of the "humans suck" climate change cult.  I'm an engineer, let me know if you want to address the actual problem.  Otherwise please STFU. 

 

[sderk 1,040]

On 6/4/2019 at 6:15 PM, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

should we take bets on when the next goal post is going to be moved? I say within 2 months they move that date again.

If Trump doesn't get reelected in 2020, that date will be moved out 10,000 years. 

[kutulu 1,542]

Did you know the Doomsday clock is presently at two minutes to midnight... That's the closest it's ever been to game over time.