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phins1921

Thoughts on David Johnson as a top 5 pick

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Anyone think he turns it around after a poor season last year? With the new offense and kingsbury has already said how much he will use Johnson in the passing attack has peaked my interest. Anyone this hyped up about him too and think he is worth a top 5 pick. I out him behind Barkley, Elliott,  kamara and McCaffrey. 

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No not a top 5. I can buy him as a 6 or 7 pick. If I had the 5th pick, prob would be more looking real closely at Hopkins. On a side note, I would not want to pick from the 5-8 hole, the value at the end of the 1st (picks 9-12) because there is so much more valuable in the second round.

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I would consider it. That bad year you referenced he still was a top 12 RB. That was in a bad offense, that couldn't stay on the field, score and one where he rarely caught the ball. The new offense should feature him in both the run and the pass. If the offense can rebound to even be middling in scoring and yards, and DJ stays healthy, he's going to be a top 5 back.

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The RB stats (moreso than the stats of any other position) are tied to the fate of the team.   if the team is winning, that RB gets a lot of second half carries.  if they are losing.... not so much unless it is a close game and the run is working.

AZ was a losing team last year.   They were terrible.

I honestly cannot anticipate a situation where this year's team is worse than last years team.   So I think his stats will improve.   

He is still a top talent.   so to that end, I think a ranking between #5 and #10 is most likely appropriate.

I do think there will be a bounce back, but maybe not into top 3 like he was before.   The team still needs to improve some more before that can happen.

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I’d be curious what some of the all time best running back years with rookie QBs were 

Can anyone point to a recent great one?

Im more asking than saying there aren’t any.

And yeah I like a DJ bounceback but still have some reservations

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Ezekiel Elliot had 1,994 total yards to go with 16 TDs in 2016 when Dak was a rookie.

Marshawn Lynch carried the ball 315 times, the most in a season in his career, during Russell Wilson's Rookie year in 2012.  Lynch had 1786 total yards and 12 TDs.

Jerome Bettis had 13 TDs, the most in a season of his career in Ben's 2004 rookie year and they won the Super Bowl.

 Barry Sanders put up huge #s with rookie qbs Rodney Peete, Scott Mitchel, and Charlie Batch.

 

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I have noticed that teams with rookie QB's usually go a bit more run heavy in the game plan during the rookie year.   

There are likely exceptions so I'm not going to pretend this is cut and dried.

and the QB is a threat to run the ball himself, so teams cannot over commit when the ball gets handed to the RB because if its a fake, that QB will light them up.

To that end, I think David Johnson should at the very least be more efficient in terms of yards per carry.   But there is the chance this will be offset by the QB poaching some TD's that would normally go to him. 

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On 7/15/2019 at 5:36 AM, Frozenbeernuts said:

I have him ranked at 5, and I have been taking him where I can

I like him at about 4. I look for a very decent year out of him this year.

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not me.. i'll take s stab at him if he is there at the end of rd1.

- rookie QB

-suspect O line

-first year HC

too much risk imo

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I have pick 6 and he will probably be there but I’m leaning Adams or Hopkins. I like him as a bounce back though.

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If the top 4 picks were Barkley, Elliott, Kamara, and McCaffrey, then yes I can see DJ as the 5th pick.  I think he'll be heavily involved this year.

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I’m coming around on DJ as the 6th pick in ppr. He looks in position to have another big year or at least get the volume. It’s either him or one of the rock solid WRs Adams or Hopkins. 

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On 7/16/2019 at 2:45 PM, crackills said:

not me.. i'll take s stab at him if he is there at the end of rd1.

- rookie QB

-suspect O line

-first year HC

too much risk imo

That's what he had last year and he was still a top 12 back. I can't imagine a scenario where the offense is worse than last year and if low end RB#1 is the floor for my first round pick, sign me up. DJ is about as safe as it gets at RB, and still offers top 3, championship centerpiece upside.

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On 7/16/2019 at 2:45 PM, crackills said:

not me.. i'll take s stab at him if he is there at the end of rd1.

- rookie QB

-suspect O line

-first year HC

too much risk imo

I’m going to agree with you.  I don’t see anywhere that the op listed a ppr or non, but since I’m in a non that’s where I’m getting these numbers. 

Last season DJ rushes for more than 100 yards once, he scored a rushing td in only 6 games and he only had three rec tds, those rec tds won’t get higher with a rookie Qb.  

Dj only avg 3:6 yards per rush last season, why would that improve? Nope it won’t. 

His non ppr avg of 12:4 points per game, was only 0:5 more than that great non ppr rb J White. 

He scored 10 or less non ppr points in 7 games, and he only avg more  than four yards per rush in a game 3 times, why would that be different? 

If you look at his ff non ppr point total in the first 14 games of the season, he scored enough points to rank as a rb1 twice. 

Im not sold on his new coach being a good nfl coach, and of course that means I’m not sure his system that he will be bringing with him from college ball to the nfl will work. 

Looks like the same situation Zona had last season, but with one more set back , a new coach and system. 

Im not sold that he’s worthy of a first round pick. 

Thanks. 

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His yards per carry will be different because he won't be running straight up the gut every carry. Last year, his touches were nearly all carries and the majority handoffs straight up the middle. The last coaching staff had no idea how to run an offense. Even if this coaching staff is bad, DJs touches are going to be different. He's going to be used in the passing game and his runs aren't going to be straight up the middle. Both of those will lead to an improved ppg. The o-line has also been revamped. It may not be an incredible line, but it won't be worse. 

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On ‎7‎/‎16‎/‎2019 at 2:45 PM, crackills said:

not me.. i'll take s stab at him if he is there at the end of rd1.

- rookie QB

-suspect O line

-first year HC

too much risk imo

To me, this makes him someone to want.  Based on that, I see a team behind, throwing a lot, with plenty of dump-offs to DJ.  Garbage points = non-garbage points.

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I do not agree. I think you need RB's on good teams that do not fall behind. Otherwise you are relying on fluke plays late in the game when the team is trailing. Give me the guy pounding the rock in the 4th quarter with a lead. Now, WR's always trailing is a different story.

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Gurley had Fisher as his coach and SUCKED.   Enter brilliant offensive coach in Sean McVay and Gurley goes off!!   Now, the Cards new HC is no McVay (nobody is!!).   However, that coaching staff last year for the Cards was a complete disaster!!!   Only Hue Jackson has been a worse HC in the last 3 or 4 years.   DJ didn't forget how to run and break tackles.  I expect him to have a good year.  Will he be a top 5 RB?  Maybe not, but he will almost certainly be in the top 10!   He definitely has a high floor.   

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On 7/16/2019 at 3:45 PM, crackills said:

not me.. i'll take s stab at him if he is there at the end of rd1.

- rookie QB

-suspect O line

-first year HC

too much risk imo

you are right in some respects:

End of round 1 is probably where he has some value.   While I have not yet done my rankings, I figured somewhere between pick 10 and 20 is where I'd expect him to go in a redraft with the average being around pick 15 (3rd pick of round 2 in 12 team leagues or 5th pick of round 2 in 10 team leagues)

While I agree, there is risk with the rookie QB, I would argue that things cant be much worse than last years QB result.  Whether that is the fault of the QB or the coach I cannot fully say, but both have been replaced and the new QB is more dynamic than the old, and that will stop teams from keying on DJ.

I agree the line is somewhat suspect, but I think it will be better than what they had last year.  

As the new Coach has a reputation of being a creative offensive mind, I think he will do a better job of getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers.

I agree there is risk, but no more risk than what he had last season.   This is why I think he will do better than he did last season.

I will not, however suggest he will return to his top 3 RB ways.    Not this year anyways.   While I agree its possible.  it can happen, but the odds are against it.

I love the player, and I love the upside, but under normal circumstances, I dont think he is a first round pick in any format other than deep leagues with 14 or more teams.

even then, there is a chance he falls into round 2 for someone patient enough to wait for him to drop.

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 I like RB's on an offense with running QB's....rookie or not.   Easily will get 20+ touches per game and you gotta figure 65-70 receptions.  No reason he can't get 10+ TD's.  Also, it's his 2nd year back from major injury.  I'll gladly take him as the 5th RB off the board this year.

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On 7/15/2019 at 12:57 PM, Smileseers said:

Ezekiel Elliot had 1,994 total yards to go with 16 TDs in 2016 when Dak was a rookie.

Marshawn Lynch carried the ball 315 times, the most in a season in his career, during Russell Wilson's Rookie year in 2012.  Lynch had 1786 total yards and 12 TDs.

Jerome Bettis had 13 TDs, the most in a season of his career in Ben's 2004 rookie year and they won the Super Bowl.

 Barry Sanders put up huge #s with rookie qbs Rodney Peete, Scott Mitchel, and Charlie Batch.

 

Adding to this...

The very pedestrian Alfred Morris rushed for 1600 yards and 13 tds in Robert Griffin's rookie year(and his own)...Griffin's skillset is similar to Murray's 

If Murray isn't overwhelmed and doesn't suck dj will do well

Think about how well shady did when tyrod was running hot...and most thought McCoy was washed up at that point too

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everyone assumes that DJ is a stud based on one year of production.

2015 - average 

2016- very good

2017- hurt

2018- average

many are predicting that he is closer to 2015 form than 2018.. why? There have been lots of RBs with one great season that never repeat. His good season was 2 years ago. You're telling me that this guy is worth #5 pick based on potential? There are much safer bets out there

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4 minutes ago, crackills said:

everyone assumes that DJ is a stud based on one year of production.

2015 - average 

2016- very good

2017- hurt

2018- average

many are predicting that he is closer to 2015 form than 2018.. why? There have been lots of RBs with one great season that never repeat. His good season was 2 years ago. You're telling me that this guy is worth #5 pick based on potential? There are much safer bets out there

Who are the safer bets..do you think Gordon or Conner are better picks in a ppr rb league. 

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6 minutes ago, crackills said:

everyone assumes that DJ is a stud based on one year of production.

2015 - average 

2016- very good

2017- hurt

2018- average

many are predicting that he is closer to 2015 form than 2018.. why? There have been lots of RBs with one great season that never repeat. His good season was 2 years ago. You're telling me that this guy is worth #5 pick based on potential? There are much safer bets out there

2015 - His rookie year and he didnt start until around week 12

2016 - Fantasy MVP

2017 - Hurt

2018 - Finished as an RB 1 in a down year. 

Who is safer than that?

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1 hour ago, Brutal Brutus said:

 

Who is safer than that?

Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffery, Zeke Elliot, Alvin Kamara...

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffery, Zeke Elliot, Alvin Kamara...

Oh, so the guys going in the top 4?

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57 minutes ago, Brutal Brutus said:

Oh, so the guys going in the top 4?

Mixon

Chubb 

Gurley 

Gordon 

Conor

Carson 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Mixon Bengals just lost 2 Olinemen. 

Chubb Has maybe the best young RB talent in the league behind him starting week 8 in Hunt. 

Gurley Well documented scare in the form of his arthritis knee. He’s the no brainer no.1 player yet people are terrified and bumping him to rnd 2. That’s at LEAST risk.

Gordon Well documented hold out situation could mean he’s this years Bell. Well established iffy injury history in recent years establishes some clear risk.

Conor I love him. Can he thrive with AB gone to take pressure off the run game and be the lead guy?

Carson Hot take, not really sure why he’s here, he’s clearly a cut below Johnson in almost all measurable aspects.

 

 

I like all the guys you have here but my comments show that they are all heavily debatable and some even blatantly less safe.

 

 

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Mixon - I like him this year, but i don't see him as being safer than DJ. They're close in my rankings, but Mixon has yet to prove his floor or ceiling is as high as DJ's.

Chubb - He could have a great year, but he doesn't have the track record of DJ. Also, it's possible Chubb isn't event the most talented back in Cle for the second half of the year.

 Gurley - Preseason will tell us a lot. Right now, that knee keeps him from being an outright safer pick than DJ, but I wouldn't fault someone for taking him over DJ. 

Gordon- Bell 2.0 looming? If the contract wasn't an issue he would probably be safer or at least in the conversation with DJ.

Conor- I have Connor in a keeper league, if the DJ owner offered me that trade, I couldn't accept it fast enough. Samuels has a legit shot at eating into his work load and if the offense takes a step back, his TD's will take a hit. 

 Carson - Is this a joke? I get being high on a player and calling your shot, but safer? Not a chance. Penny is still there, and Seattle has a history of changing their RBBC on a weekly basis. 

 

 

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I think that you guys are buying into the air raid offense too much and looking for a bounceback from someone who is never going to be special again. 

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I think people are way too hard on his season last year. He may have disappointed, but he was the 12th best back. Considering half of first round picks are going to completely bust, grabbing the 5th RB who's bad season is low end RB1, is about as safe as it gets.

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Also he was not “average” his rookie year, he was insane, once he got a chance to play. Check game logs, not just final stats, those don’t paint the picture. He was tearing it up, so much so that the next season I told people he was the no.1 pick in fantasy, which he ended up earning. So dont hold his rookie year against him, that’s an argument FOR him, not against.
 

his yearly play evaluation should read-

insane

insane

hurt

On historically bad offense and still salvaged an RB1 season while also being mismanaged epically.

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12 hours ago, phins1921 said:

Who are the safer bets..do you think Gordon or Conner are better picks in a ppr rb league. 

I think your original question was, his DJ worthy of a top five ppr league pick. 

I say no. 

Hey thanks. 

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On 7/19/2019 at 3:07 PM, Brutal Brutus said:

That's what he had last year and he was still a top 12 back. I can't imagine a scenario where the offense is worse than last year and if low end RB#1 is the floor for my first round pick, sign me up. DJ is about as safe as it gets at RB, and still offers top 3, championship centerpiece upside.

Even if he finishes as the twelve best rb, he’s still not worthy of a top five pick, that was the op question. 

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You do know that N Chubb did avg 16 points per game in ppr the last ten games of the season. 

Thats when he took over.  

He playes for a much better offense then you will find in Zona. 

Ill take Chubb over DJ.  

Once again DJ is not worthy of a top five pick, and that was the op question. 

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i'm going to be drafting in the middle of the first round (likely 6th) in .5 ppr, what i want there is reliable production.  people are considering drafting DJ high based on 2+ years ago in a totally different system with an established QB.  Hopkins or a RB like Conner feel like safer plays here.  i've got a month to sort it out at least.  this thread helps. 

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2 hours ago, American Chewy said:

i'm going to be drafting in the middle of the first round (likely 6th) in .5 ppr, what i want there is reliable production.  people are considering drafting DJ high based on 2+ years ago in a totally different system with an established QB.  Hopkins or a RB like Conner feel like safer plays here.  i've got a month to sort it out at least.  this thread helps. 

I don't see how Conner is safer when the running back behind him is all around better

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