Is it time to get out of the market?

[BLS 313]

3 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Question is what to buy

S&P Index with a very low expense ratio.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

11 minutes ago, BLS said:

S&P Index with a very low expense ratio.

That would be something like SPY. I think it is still overvalued and will open up a bit (.7%?).

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Great day yesterday... I made $1,500 bucks!  More importantly... I did not lose $15,000 which I would have, had I not moved out of the Small Caps last week.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

23 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

How many bailed last week?  When are people jumping back in?

Bailed last Thursday, back in this Friday COB.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

23 hours ago, lod001 said:

2 ways to look at it.

IF you bailed last week and were strictly in the S&P, you just netted 2.5% vs the field.

However, if a recession gets triggered by the virus, the thing to do is stand on the sidelines if you did not already get into TLT.  The service sector PMI was negative on Friday. Huge miss and a contraction in the sector is not good.The virus could scare the average person to stay home instead of going out and spending $.

I sold ETF index funds based on the DWCPF on Thursday, bought AGG.

DWCPF is down 5% in that timeframe, while AGG is +0.67%.

About a $21,000 difference.  Weeeeeee!

[Cdub100 3,379]

11 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Question is what to buy

CCL when it hits $35

[Alias Detective 1,179]

All you who buy on these dips; where do you get your endless supply of money?  Or are you buy buy buying $100 at a time?

 

 

[lod001 1,237]

52 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Great day yesterday... I made $1,500 bucks!  More importantly... I did not lose $15,000 which I would have, had I not moved out of the Small Caps last week.

Great move! 

YOU CANT TIME THE MARKET!!!!!!!

[lod001 1,237]

2 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

All you who buy on these dips; where do you get your endless supply of money?  Or are you buy buy buying $100 at a time?

 

 

I actually move in 25%, 50% and 100% increments between funds in VALIC. Usually 100%. 

I can move into 2 different money markets, some really low risk treasury funds (about 4 of them), bond funds which barely move and of course everything else up to and including the S&P fund and the NAZ 100 fund. My average # of moves per year is about 50.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

2 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I actually move in 25%, 50% and 100% increments between funds in VALIC. Usually 100%. 

I can move into 2 different money markets, some really low risk treasury funds (about 4 of them), bond funds which barely move and of course everything else up to and including the S&P fund and the NAZ 100 fund. My average # of moves per year is about 50.

You aren’t buying with new money rather exchanging funds.  Right?

[Cdub100 3,379]

13 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

All you who buy on these dips; where do you get your endless supply of money?  Or are you buy buy buying $100 at a time?

 

 

I invest every month and don't sit on cash.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Just now, Cdub100 said:

I invest every month and don't sit on cash.

I assume most do.  To those who always have money to buy the dips I’m curious how?  I’d assume after 4 dips most would be all in.  

[edjr 5,552]

5 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I invest every month and don't sit on cash.

I have 125k in a cap one 360 performance savings account (1.70% apr)  I need it on hand because we are in the midst of trying to buy another house.

last 2 offers we made lost out to all cash offers that waved the inspection

 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

I have 125k in a cap one 360 performance savings account (1.70% apr)  I need it on hand because we in the midst of trying to buy another house.

last 2 offers we made lost out to all cash offers that waved the inspection

 

Inspections are great to point out issues. On the other hand, you have no recourse against an inspector who gives you wrong info.  

[Strike 3,956]

24 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

All you who buy on these dips; where do you get your endless supply of money?  Or are you buy buy buying $100 at a time?

 

 

I make more than I spend.  My taxable account generates dividends that aren't automatically reinvested.  I get bonuses a couple times a year.  So, multiple sources of cash.

[edjr 5,552]

8 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Inspections are great to point out issues. On the other hand, you have no recourse against an inspector who gives you wrong info.  

Where I live it is such a sellers market, the only way to get an offer accepted is to wave inspection

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

28 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

All you who buy on these dips; where do you get your endless supply of money?  Or are you buy buy buying $100 at a time?

 

 

I have cash sitting on the sidelines for opportunistic purchases.  I will usually just move $5-10k into a brokerage account when these happen and then put in a limit order on something that I like if it dips to a certain price. Otherwise, I wait.  Most of money is actually with my broker and he does stuff periodically that is more geared towards redistribution of funds instead of stocks.  I am only messing around with about 5% of my portfolio in these investments.  The rest are long-term holdings.  

[Alias Detective 1,179]

2 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I have cash sitting on the sidelines for opportunistic purchases.  I will usually just move $5-10k into a brokerage account when these happen and then put in a limit order on something that I like if it dips to a certain price. Otherwise, I wait.  Most of money is actually with my broker and he does stuff periodically that is more geared towards redistribution of funds instead of stocks.  I am only messing around with about 5% of my portfolio in these investments.  The rest are long-term holdings.  

That makes sense.  

[Alias Detective 1,179]

9 minutes ago, Strike said:

I make more than I spend.  My taxable account generates dividends that aren't automatically reinvested.  I get bonuses a couple times a year.  So, multiple sources of cash.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

16 minutes ago, edjr said:

I have 125k in a cap one 360 performance savings account (1.70% apr)  I need it on hand because we are in the midst of trying to buy another house.

last 2 offers we made lost out to all cash offers that waved the inspection

 

What types of RE are you buying with $125k?

[edjr 5,552]

1 minute ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

What types of RE are you buying with $125k?

did not say WE offered all cash. Said we lost to all cash

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

53 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

CCL when it hits $35

I couldn't do that.  I try to avoid companies that I would not buy their products and I am not a fan of Carnival, especially in a pandemic situation.  They would have to tank more than down to $35 for me to hop on the Titanic. 

 

Besides, I am still gunshy after you recommended MMM and XOM. 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

5 minutes ago, edjr said:

Where I live it is such a sellers market, the only way to get an offer accepted is to wave inspection

My point, they are only good to point out issues.  Your realtor should be able to provide the same info - Get a construction friend to help.  An official inspector does not stand behind their findings or lack there of anyway. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Just now, edjr said:

did not say WE offered all cash. Said we lost to all cash

I didn't take it that way.  I assume that you offered a lot more than $125k.  My question was what type of RE you were investing in.  Duplex in a city? Summer rentals? Etc.

[edjr 5,552]

Just now, Alias Detective said:

My point, they are only good to point out issues.  Your realtor should be able to provide the same info - Get a construction friend to help.  An official inspector does not stand behind their findings or lack there of anyway. 

Oh, gotcha.

I am reading into it and lots of housing market crash predictions for 2020, I think it's best to wait.  

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I didn't take it that way.  I assume that you offered a lot more than $125k.  My question was what type of RE you were investing in.  Duplex in a city? Summer rentals? Etc.

That’s the 10% down payment on his cabin in the Hamptons.

[edjr 5,552]

1 minute ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I didn't take it that way.  I assume that you offered a lot more than $125k.  My question was what type of RE you were investing in.  Duplex in a city? Summer rentals? Etc.

a place to live (single family) closer to Boston (Beverly) and then rent out current.   Just offered 470 with 125 down for a house on for 449 and lost to cash

[Cdub100 3,379]

1 minute ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I couldn't do that.  I try to avoid companies that I would not buy their products and I am not a fan of Carnival, especially in a pandemic situation.  They would have to tank more than down to $35 for me to hop on the Titanic. 

I like them because they've been a steady company that offers a nice dividend.

They are at lows due to the virus which is a great time to buy. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Just now, edjr said:

Oh, gotcha.

I am reading into it and lots of housing market crash predictions for 2020, I think it's best to wait.  

Agreed.  I have thought about it, but I am probably too risk averse and I definitely don't want to have to fix something up.  Too lazy now for that. 

[edjr 5,552]

Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Agreed.  I have thought about it, but I am probably too risk averse and I definitely don't want to have to fix something up.  Too lazy now for that. 

That is the only option. A fix up or tear down.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

Oh, gotcha.

I am reading into it and lots of housing market crash predictions for 2020, I think it's best to wait.  

Don’t buy in a sellers market. 

[Cdub100 3,379]

15 minutes ago, Strike said:

I make more than I spend.  My taxable account generates dividends that aren't automatically reinvested.  I get bonuses a couple times a year.  So, multiple sources of cash.

I do the same except I buy every month (not at the same time) and slowly enter the market. Always cost averaging.

[edjr 5,552]

Just now, Alias Detective said:

Don’t buy in a sellers market. 

I know, I know. but she keeps bugging me. The place we live is paid for, we don't owe anything and I own myself another condo that i rent.  We want to move and rent the current place. I think we might fix up where we are now, and stay till market crashes

[Cdub100 3,379]

MMM 52 week low is another good buy

[edjr 5,552]

1 minute ago, Cdub100 said:

I do the same except I buy every month (not at the same time) and slowly enter the market. Always cost averaging.

For some reason, reading this excited me a little

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

I know, I know. but she keeps bugging me. The place we live is paid for, we don't owe anything and I own myself another condo that i rent.  We want to move and rent the current place. I think we might fix up where we are now, and stay till market crashes

On the bright side, you can secure lending for unprecedented rates.  This reason alone may make it worth the risk.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

I had been looking at PYPL for a bit.  Should have pulled the trigger on it a while ago, but did buy today when it went to $113.50 as I see it going to $125 in the next 12 months or so.  Of course, we will have to see how far it dips in this pullback. 

[Cdub100 3,379]

39 minutes ago, edjr said:

For some reason, reading this excited me a little

I'm gentle like that

[edjr 5,552]

49 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

On the bright side, you can secure lending for unprecedented rates.  This reason alone may make it worth the risk.

I did a refi of a property a couple months ago.. 15 year 3.5%

[Alias Detective 1,179]

13 minutes ago, edjr said:

I did a refi of a property a couple months ago.. 15 year 3.5%

Ok, great.  Take out a line of credit against your old house to get the cash you need to buy the new property.  Now you have cash.  Then convert the LOC to a conventional loan.