Is it time to get out of the market?

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 minute ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Sell everything folks.  Now before its too late!  Some say the market may NEVER come back.  SELL! SELL! SELL!
Do you really want your 401K and retirement to say 0?

SELL! The virus is coming!!! SELL!! 

Don't wait til its too late!!!!!!

 

The volume of trades indicates a lot of buying and selling going on........

[Alias Detective 1,179]

16 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Another drop expected today. I think that I will be hopping onto the SPY bandwagon once it gets to about $275 (which is a notch above their 52 week low).  Not a ton of dough, but a decent amount.  Better to go with a fund than an individual stock at this point because things are still highly volatile.  

Will you be close to all in with your cash that is intended to be invested?

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

2 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Will you be close to all in with your cash that is intended to be invested?

Not even close.  I will still have a bunch of cash as emergency funds and for other stuff. I am also saving a big chunk to exercise some stock options for my employer.  I don't have to do it, but it has been really good to me so far, so I am getting more.  As a private company, it is only open to buy once per year.  

[Alias Detective 1,179]

2 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Not even close.  I will still have a bunch of cash as emergency funds and for other stuff. I am also saving a big chunk to exercise some stock options for my employer.  I don't have to do it, but it has been really good to me so far, so I am getting more.  As a private company, it is only open to buy once per year.  

Sweet.  I think the market will drop another 10% before it settles.  Hope not, but I’m prepared to make a strong move at Dow 22500

[Cdub100 3,370]

I bought some today

JNJ

O

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

21 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I bought some today

JNJ

O

Cdub loves his dividend aristocrats!!

[Cdub100 3,370]

18 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Cdub loves his dividend aristocrats!!

Fact!

ETA: Decided to add to my PEP position as well.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

I'm buying back into the Small cap funds.  (My TSP S Fund)

If today holds I'm buying in -14% lower than I sold it for 8 days ago.  As of last night I would have lost -$58k had I not gotten out when I did.  Plus another -2% today this far.... or $9k more...

Sheesh .. 

A little nervousness at buying back in... but I'm scheduled to be in the market the next 3 months anyway... so... even if it tanks a little more... missing out on the first -14% should help my ride back up!

We'll see how she goes boys!

 

LEEEERRROOOYYYY JEEENNNKIIINNSSS!!

 

[Cdub100 3,370]

34 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I'm buying back into the Small cap funds.  (My TSP S Fund)

If today holds I'm buying in -14% lower than I sold it for 8 days ago.  As of last night I would have lost -$58k had I not gotten out when I did.  Plus another -2% today this far.... or $9k more...

Sheesh .. 

A little nervousness at buying back in... but I'm scheduled to be in the market the next 3 months anyway... so... even if it tanks a little more... missing out on the first -14% should help my ride back up!

We'll see how she goes boys!

 

LEEEERRROOOYYYY JEEENNNKIIINNSSS!!

 

I was at an army depot this week and ran into a couple of people doing this program.

Hope it works for you guys.

[BLS 313]

I haven't made any changes to my investments.

If it goes down, then I'll be buying cheaper.

If it goes up, well duh.

I'm in the for long run.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

9 hours ago, BLS said:

I haven't made any changes to my investments.

If it goes down, then I'll be buying cheaper.

If it goes up, well duh.

I'm in the for long run.

Wait, you promoted buying several days ago.  Now you are waiting?

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Sell, sell, sell

[tubby_mcgee 686]

RUUUUUNNNNNNN!!!!! SELLLLLLL!!! 

What if the market goes to 0 and NEVER comes back!???!!!!

Dump it all!!!!!

[mmmmm...beer 691]

On 2/28/2020 at 12:17 PM, Cdub100 said:

I was at an army depot this week and ran into a couple of people doing this program.

Hope it works for you guys.

Holy smokes bro... we NAILED it.... +3.03% today... 13g's baby....

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 hour ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Holy smokes bro... we NAILED it.... +3.03% today... 13g's baby....

You sold?

[mmmmm...beer 691]

2 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

You sold?

I'm on this strategy plan... goes off historical data... had me sell my Small Cap Index at COB Feb 19th... into Bond index... then had me sell Bond index back into Small caps COB on the 28th.

I missed the -13% drop in small caps... bought it back and today it rose +3%.

Sell caused me to miss -$64,000 in losses last week.  Today made me almost $14k.

Who knows what happens next.... hopefully it keeps recovering last weeks losses... but I'm in this index fund the next 3 weeks.

[Djgb13 2,338]

18 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I'm on this strategy plan... goes off historical data... had me sell my Small Cap Index at COB Feb 19th... into Bond index... then had me sell Bond index back into Small caps COB on the 28th.

I missed the -13% drop in small caps... bought it back and today it rose +3%.

Sell caused me to miss -$64,000 in losses last week.  Today made me almost $14k.

Who knows what happens next.... hopefully it keeps recovering last weeks losses... but I'm in this index fund the next 3 weeks.

Sweet. Trying to learn about stocks myself so I can really start but not sure if I should even start right now 

[lod001 1,235]

1 hour ago, Djgb13 said:

Sweet. Trying to learn about stocks myself so I can really start but not sure if I should even start right now 

Follow Adam Mancini's twitter. You will learn a shitload in a short amount of time. Or it will simply go right over your head.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

13 hours ago, Djgb13 said:

Sweet. Trying to learn about stocks myself so I can really start but not sure if I should even start right now 

Personally I find individual stocks to just be to volatile.  Look up and learn about the "Index funds".  I think them much more stable.  Not as super sexy but you can still make a shitton of money trading them.

[Djgb13 2,338]

1 hour ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Personally I find individual stocks to just be to volatile.  Look up and learn about the "Index funds".  I think them much more stable.  Not as super sexy but you can still make a shitton of money trading them.

Might look into that then 

[edjr 5,547]

I took a $50,000 loan against my 401k, which will guarantee me 5.75% on that money until it's paid off (over 3 years). About an extra 8k in 3 years. Not a bad return on it and guaranteed.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

13 minutes ago, edjr said:

I took a $50,000 loan against my 401k, which will guarantee me 5.75% on that money until it's paid off (over 3 years). About an extra 8k in 3 years. Not a bad return on it and guaranteed.

What?

[Reality 2,710]

23 minutes ago, edjr said:

I took a $50,000 loan against my 401k, which will guarantee me 5.75% on that money until it's paid off (over 3 years). About an extra 8k in 3 years. Not a bad return on it and guaranteed.

Ballsy...

[mmmmm...beer 691]

11 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

What?

I think he has to pay himself back that 50k @ 5.75% over 3 years.

Uhhhhh...

 

What did you need the money for Ed?

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

4 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I think he has to pay himself back that 50k @ 5.75% over 3 years.

Uhhhhh...

 

What did you need the money for Ed?

So, he is paying interest to himself?  If that is the case, then he is making $0 on the money with no chance for that money to make money in his 401k.  

[edjr 5,547]

1 minute ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I think he has to pay himself back that 50k @ 5.75% over 3 years.

Uhhhhh...

Yup.  Pre tax from my salary. it's basically $800 twice a month for 36 months.  

I only lose if I leave my job and then have 30 days to pay it back

[Utilit99 4,099]

6 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I think he has to pay himself back that 50k @ 5.75% over 3 years.

Uhhhhh...

I did this a bunch of years ago. But only borrowed like 4k at 2% interest. Saved me a bunch of cash in the end paying off some higher interest stupid CC choices. Just can't lose your job before you pay it off.

[edjr 5,547]

3 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

So, he is paying interest to himself?  If that is the case, then he is making $0 on the money with no chance for that money to make money in his 401k.  

Yup.  But I can use the 50k to invest in something else. I'm not taking it out to put it under the mattress.

 

[mmmmm...beer 691]

1 minute ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

So, he is paying interest to himself?  If that is the case, then he is making $0 on the money with no chance for that money to make money in his 401k.  

Yeah... all growth potential of that 50k is lost for those 3 years plus whatever that would be compounding yearly forever after that.

And 5.75% over 3 years is essentially paying yourself less than 2% a year interest.

They are usually a bad idea, but one of the most common things done.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

4 minutes ago, edjr said:

Yup.  Pre tax from my salary. it's basically $800 twice a month for 36 months.  

I only lose if I leave my job and then have 30 days to pay it back

I suggest you verify that the money is pre-tax.  I believe that the repayments are post tax money, meaning that the money is pulled from your paycheck AFTER taxes.  

[mmmmm...beer 691]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

Yup.  But I can use the 50k to invest in something else. I'm not taking it out to put it under the mattress.

 

If this is done and he makes money off it.. well.. every person needs to weigh that themselves.  Most folks are not very informed though and don't understand everything their doing.

They make it really easy to do this without educating much.

[edjr 5,547]

5 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Yeah... all growth potential of that 50k is lost for those 3 years plus whatever that would be compounding yearly forever after that.

And 5.75% over 3 years is essentially paying yourself less than 2% a year interest.

They are usually a bad idea, but one of the most common things done.

5.75 per year. 

[mmmmm...beer 691]

4 minutes ago, edjr said:

it's 5.75 per year. HTH

Thats better for sure.  I'm not busting your balls on your decision.  To each his own and I'm sure you did your due diligence.  I'm talking in generalities I've seen folks take that out and buy a boat, camper,  or car.. etc...  something that depreciates like a rock dropped in a deep lake.

[edjr 5,547]

4 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I suggest you verify that the money is pre-tax.  I believe that the repayments are post tax money, meaning that the money is pulled from your paycheck AFTER taxes.  

It is pre tax. just the same as if I were putting it right into 401k. the only thing I changed, was I changed my contributions from 15% to 25%

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

2 minutes ago, edjr said:

It is pre tax. just the same as if I were putting it right into 401k. the only thing I changed, was I changed my contributions from 15% to 25%

Again, check that because a repayment of a 401k loan is not the same as a 401k contribution.  Also need to verify that it does not affect matching.  

I did a quick search:  https://www.brightscope.com/financial-planning/advice/article/3008/The-Big-Downside-Of-401K-Loans-No-One-Talks-About/

Quote

When you repay your 401k loan, you do so with after-tax dollars. Remember that normal contributions to a 401k are made with pre-tax dollars, which is one of the major benefits of participating in a 401k plan. But loan repayments are made with after-tax dollars, so there is no tax break there.

 

[edjr 5,547]

Just now, mmmmm...beer said:

Thats better for sure.  I'm not busting your balls on your decision.  To each his own and I'm sure you did your due diligence.  I'm talki g in generalities I've seen folks take that out and buy a boat, camper,  or car.. etc...  something that depreciates like a rock dropped in a deep lake.

I saw the market crashing and said WTF,  why not? there is no penalty and as long as I pay it back, no skin really. I plan to use it to buy a house that needs repairs and using it for that. I don't have that house yet, but hopefully soon.

[edjr 5,547]

2 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Again, check that because a repayment of a 401k loan is not the same as a 401k contribution.  Also need to verify that it does not affect matching.  

https://www.listenmoneymatters.com/401k-loan/

 

(I checked mine as it's right on the paper work)

You have five years to pay back a 401k loan.

There is no early repayment penalty. Most plans allow you to repay the loan through payroll deductions, the same way you invested the money.

 

Myths About Borrowing Against a 401k

There is a lot of fear-mongering about borrowing from your 401k and for a good reason. Not everyone who does it would make good use of the money by investing in a home or an education.

If borrowing were not discouraged, too many people would raid their account for silly reasons that will hurt their retirement savings.

But not all of the doom and gloom is entirely true. Borrowing from your 401k is not necessarily damaging to your retirement savings. When you pay the loan (yourself) back, the payments go back into your investments.

Because you’re paying interest, you’re paying back a little more than you borrowed, so you’re putting additional money into the account.

As long as any interest payments are the same or greater than what you lost during the time that money wasn’t invested, your savings aren’t affected and can increase if the interest is more than any earnings losses.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

I saw the market crashing and said WTF,  why not? there is no penalty and as long as I pay it back, no skin really. I plan to use it to buy a house that needs repairs and using it for that. I don't have that house yet, but hopefully soon.

Investment vehicle or primary residence?  Either one... hey man.. instant equity on a fixer usually...

[edjr 5,547]

BTW and I say this with 100% sincerity.

 

if not for FFT and the sh1t I have learned over the years, none of this would be possible. This place helped me and made me learn about money and want to be better. In 2003 when I started posting here, dish washer or not, I was totally poor. I had a 535 credit score. Now I own 2 properties and looking for a 3rd.

Thank you all

[edjr 5,547]

1 minute ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Investment vehicle or primary residence?  Either one... hey man.. instant equity on a fixer usually...

Primary.  It's such a sellers market, we have had 2 offers topped by cash.