Is it time to get out of the market?

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I think that we already have seen that jump today. No?

I agree that the ball got rolling overnight, I expect even more when it passes, although it may be temporary.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

35 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

I agree that the ball got rolling overnight, I expect even more when it passes, although it may be temporary.

I don't see it lasting beyond a day.  It will be an impulse.  The reality is that the numbers are going to get worse over the next couple of weeks and things will get real.  It will continue to erode confidence enough that people will sell off.  We are not at the bottom.  

[Cdub100 3,366]

1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I don't see it lasting beyond a day.  It will be an impulse.  The reality is that the numbers are going to get worse over the next couple of weeks and things will get real.  It will continue to erode confidence enough that people will sell off.  We are not at the bottom.  

This is when the idiots buy back in. They start losing money again and sell by Friday. I'm still staying on the sidelines. When I jump back in I'm going to average in hard.

[nobody 2,031]

3 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

If congress passes this stimulus the market will jump.  Keep a close eye on it and try to jump in before it passes. 

Impossible with all the insider trading from Congress.  I'm sure they all call their hedgefund buddies before the vote 

[mmmmm...beer 691]

On 3/23/2020 at 8:32 AM, Hardcore troubadour said:

Is anyone still in? Not individual stocks, but 401k’s etc? It has to come back at some point, but this ride must suck. Now the hard part is figuring when to get back in. 

Dude... I missed the first -12%.. but caught a bit of it.  It suuuuucks... but days like today.. gotta be in for them.  Miss out on these days is bad...

[Hardcore troubadour 12,559]

18 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Dude... I missed the first -12%.. but caught a bit of it.  It suuuuucks... but days like today.. gotta be in for them.  Miss out on these days is bad...

So fockin true. 

[supermike80 1,282]

3 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

This is when the idiots buy back in. They start losing money again and sell by Friday. I'm still staying on the sidelines. When I jump back in I'm going to average in hard.

I dont like seeing this kind of gain while I stay out.But I am staying out for now

[Cdub100 3,366]

5 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

I dont like seeing this kind of gain while I stay out.But I am staying out for now

I think they call it a false breakout. 

[lod001 1,235]

Well, that was awesome. Waiting for the chart guys to give me an idea of the exit point on this bear market rally. One day rallies are useless to suck in the weak longs. They gotta make this look real and pump it to at least 2600. 2700 would be fantastic.

[nobody 2,031]

I remember when the market moving 2% was a big deal.  Those were the days.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,564]

I think its time to get out of the supermarket

 

[Cdub100 3,366]

7 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

I think its time to get out of the supermarket

 

If I was to buy anything right now it would be Kroger and other true supermarkets (Not Walmart or target like stores.)

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Just now, Cdub100 said:

If I was to buy anything right now it would be Kroger and other true supermarkets (Not Walmart or target like stores.)

ZM is ready to bounce up big again when sh1t hits the fan again and we aren’t opening for business by Easter.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,564]

1 hour ago, Cdub100 said:

If I was to buy anything right now it would be Kroger and other true supermarkets (Not Walmart or target like stores.)

I only goto stater bros

 

[mmmmm...beer 691]

TTOO... interesting... should drop right away right?  Might be interesting to watch.. up +100% after hours

[bandrus1 413]

I moved all my real estate holding to large cap mutual fund today

 

I have to think commercial real estate is a real dog long term

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

1 minute ago, bandrus1 said:

I moved all my real estate holding to large cap mutual fund today

 

I have to think commercial real estate is a real dog long term

Like Rosie O'Donnell kind of a dog?

[TimmySmith 2,782]

32 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

I moved all my real estate holding to large cap mutual fund today

I have to think commercial real estate is a real dog long term

You think Trump might have a soft spot for developers?  Ya think? 

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Could be a dead cat bounce... but it's been a decent recoop of $41k the last two days.

My buddy pays a high priced FA he speaks with every morning...  says theres a pretty decent feeling we MAY have scraped the bottom.  Lots of buying ops for long and short....

[JustinCharge 2,397]

18 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Could be a dead cat bounce... but it's been a decent recoop of $41k the last two days.

My buddy pays a high priced FA he speaks with every morning...  says theres a pretty decent feeling we MAY have scraped the bottom.  Lots of buying ops for long and short....

This is now a recession market drop.

The 2000 recession took like 30 months to bottom.  The 2008 crash took 17 months.  This has been a couple weeks.  It would be amazing if we've already bottomed.  Could be, but, history says it won't stop until 2022.  Then again this is a very strange situation.   If you wanted to measure from the first *crash* instead of the top, then from the september 2008 crash to the bottom was about 6 months.  From the sept/oct 2000 crash to the bottom was about 27 months (and that included compounding events like 911 and disarray over the buildup to invasion of Iraq in 2003).   But there's another lesson there.  *New* unforseen complications can arise going forward that can drive the markets even lower and into new crashes just like 2001 and 2002.  What if widespread looting in the US breaks out?  What if civil unrest in the US breaks out?  What if China and Russia use the crisis to get super aggressive politically and militarily? 

 

My recession strategy has always been this:

1.  Recessions mean that there will be some major ETFs / indicies / stocks that will (at *some* point) lose 99% of their value. 
2.  Therefore, watch a basket of big ones.
3.  Whenever one of them loses 99% of their value, buy a bunch of it.

[nobody 2,031]

On 3/23/2020 at 4:59 PM, nobody said:

Let's see what's on the slate for this week.

1. New Home Sales - 3/24
2. Mortgage Applications - 3/25
3. Crude Oil inventories - 3/25
4. Unemployment Claims - 3/26
5. Retail inventories - 3/26
6. GDP Estimate - 3/26

There ain't nothing but bad news coming this week.  It just depends on if the numbers are better than feared at this point.

Unemployment is going to be the real interesting one.  If it's below 525k, we'll be fine.  If it's something like 550k or above, I wouldn't be surprised if we close down 10% on just Thursday/Friday.

 

Better make that unemployment number closer to 4 million to make things go south.

[vuduchile 1,940]

10 hours ago, nobody said:

Better make that unemployment number closer to 4 million to make things go south.

Our Treasury Secretary says today's 3M + claims are irrelevant.  The markets seem to agree today.  

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Listen boys.. this thing could obviously go an entirely different way today.... but I gotta say... I'm loving the sustainability of three fairly big green days in a row.

[vuduchile 1,940]

4 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Listen boys.. this thing could obviously go an entirely different way today.... but I gotta say... I'm loving the sustainability of three fairly big green days in a row.

Amen

3 days of reversing course is a good sign.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Recovered $80k in the last 3 days...  I'll take it.

[Cdub100 3,366]

15 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Recovered $80k in the last 3 days...  I'll take it.

Hope you sold out.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,559]

Sell !

[Cdub100 3,366]

That dead cat is falling hard

[Alias Detective 1,177]

7 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Sell !

Getting old.  
 

 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,559]

Just now, Alias Detective said:

Getting old.  
 

 

Haven’t done it in days. If you want to pick a fight as usual with anyone I’m your man. Just make it interesting.  

[Alias Detective 1,177]

On 3/20/2020 at 11:33 AM, Hardcore troubadour said:

Sell!

 

On 3/20/2020 at 11:36 AM, Hardcore troubadour said:

Buy!

 

On 3/20/2020 at 11:40 AM, Hardcore troubadour said:

I learned a long time ago that I don’t know shite about when it goes up and when it goes down. After Bush got elected I pulled out because I thought he was retarded. While I was out 9/11 happened, so I missed that drop. Got back in after and thought I was slick. Then 2008 came and I was caught flat footed. I didn’t feel so smart then. Decided a while ago to not pay as much attention. It’s like betting on your own team. 

 

On 3/20/2020 at 12:31 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

Hope you guys listened to this one. I’ll be back. 

 

On 3/20/2020 at 4:27 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

Nailed it!  See you Monday! 

 

On 3/23/2020 at 11:41 AM, Hardcore troubadour said:

I applaud you guys. And I think you’re all right about this. 

 

16 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Sell !

Good stuff.

 

I don’t want an internet fight.  You are undefeated and I’m scared. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,559]

1 minute ago, Alias Detective said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good stuff.

 

I don’t want an internet fight.  You are undefeated and I’m scared. 

Weak. 

[NorthernVike 2,079]

20 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

That dead cat is falling hard

Not really.  Off less than 1000 right now.  

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

On 3/24/2020 at 7:04 PM, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

ZM is ready to bounce up big again when sh1t hits the fan again and we aren’t opening for business by Easter.

Anyone have the balls to do this?  I didn't, but they are up about 10% since Tuesday night.  I expect it will keep going up with all of the people working/learning remotely.  

[vuduchile 1,940]

Amazon still looks like a value to me. 

#1 internet retailer in the world.  

They sell almost everything 

Their Prime delivery service is second to none

This virus crisis will drive more brick and mortars out of biz. 

No other company was better positioned to take advantage of the short term effects of this crisis.   

Long term outlook is good.  

 

[Cdub100 3,366]

2 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Amazon still looks like a value to me. 

#1 internet retailer in the world.  

They sell almost everything 

Their Prime delivery service is second to none

This virus crisis will drive more brick and mortars out of biz. 

No other company was better positioned to take advantage of the short term effects of this crisis.   

Long term outlook is good.  

 

It will drop below 1600 within 30 days

[Cdub100 3,366]

2 hours ago, NorthernVike said:

Not really.  Off less than 1000 right now.  

Keep buying by all means then.

[NorthernVike 2,079]

4 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Keep buying by all means then.

After a 20+% rise, I'd have thought it would be down a lot more than what it is today.     

[nobody 2,031]

I have buy orders for COST at 275 and MSFT at 132.  The last two on my shopping list that didn't come in last week.

[Cdub100 3,366]

12 minutes ago, NorthernVike said:

After a 20+% rise, I'd have thought it would be down a lot more than what it is today.     

A 20% rise over 3-4 days vs one day. I stand by my dead cat bounce.