Is it time to get out of the market?

[Leeson 54]

At this point, I would be more surprised if the stock market went up 20%. I wouldn't be shocked if it goes down 30%. There isn't enough progress towards a vaccine to make me think things will improve greatly ove the next 4-6 months. Even if we get numbers of infected under control, it will only be because we have 75% of the country sheltering in place. We can build more hospitals, supply more PPE, and have one ventilator for each person in the country, we still have to feel comfortable enough to go a basketball game or sit in a movie theater with hundreds or thousands of other people. If parts of Asia are hit with a second wave, our country will have no choice but to continue the lock down. 

People don't want to be sick. People don't want to die. What has changed in this country since March 4th? We are treading water at this point. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,596]

We got hit with the first wave. Now comes the other ones. You have to figure the housing market will have some significant damage as this goes on 

[Leeson 54]

Wife and I were talking about he possibility of a second wave. Thinking it would hit in the fall and could effect Christmas. That would be a huge impact to retail. 

[nobody 2,032]

You have to consider that the government has shown that they'll spend any amount of money to prop up the market.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

7 hours ago, Leeson said:

Wife and I were talking about he possibility of a second wave. Thinking it would hit in the fall and could effect Christmas. That would be a huge impact to retail. 

The epidemic is supposedly going to continue to get worse from now until April of 2021. 11.4 million projected dead in the US. 

If if did, I wonder if society would still be singing silly songs on Tik Tok and if business owners would still be okay with people telling them "Just stay closed, its for the good of the people"

Imagine if this gets 10x worse than it is.  Ya think gold or silly songs or people saying "We all just need to get along" is gonna keep people 'getting along'? 

What's life like?  

[TimmySmith 2,782]

15 hours ago, nobody said:

You have to consider that the government has shown that they'll spend any amount of money to prop up the market.

To be fair, none of it is real money. 

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

On 4/3/2020 at 1:23 AM, Cdub100 said:

Theaters had the right idea. They moved away from stadium seating to those big leather chairs and started offering better food and beer etc... The problem they will have is they offer a service I think I can get better at home.

In addition, Disney is squeezing them out by asking for more and more of a cut on ticket sales. It's only a matter of time before Disney says why share the profits when they can keep 100%.

Yep. Soon the major studios will stream first run releases straight to our homes. And when they do, I will never set foot in a theatre again. 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

16 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Yep. Soon the major studios will stream first run releases straight to our homes. And when they do, I will never set foot in a theatre again. 

Our generation may be the last that appreciates the theater. The whole feel of it. It will be sad to lose.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

1 minute ago, TimmySmith said:

Our generation may be the last that appreciates the theater. The whole feel of it. It will be sad to lose.

They seem, at least in the US, to be going back in the right direction... Making it a premium experience. For two long, it was a low rent place full of annoying trashy bastards and mobs of high school kids. 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

2 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

They seem, at least in the US, to be going back in the right direction... Making it a premium experience. For two long, it was a low rent place full of annoying trashy bastards and mobs of high school kids. 

Premium, yes. Lazy boys and service. To see the latest Marvel effort. But that is for the millenials that need that. I go to the best theater in the world IMO, to see real films. But not as often as would like.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

11 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Premium, yes. Lazy boys and service. To see the latest Marvel effort. But that is for the millenials that need that. I go to the best theater in the world IMO, to see real films. But not as often as would like.

Sure. They don't make anything worth a fock anymore.

It is odd to me that serious drama succeeds like crazy on tv and streaming services. All the HBO shows. Breaking bad. Game of thrones. Ozark. Vikings. You could go on for hours listing killer drama series.

But they just won't make movies like that anymore.

[vuduchile 1,940]

32 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

They seem, at least in the US, to be going back in the right direction... Making it a premium experience. For two long, it was a low rent place full of annoying trashy bastards and mobs of high school kids. 

Unfortunately, it’s still that in most places.   

Even the Lazy Boy theaters with reserved seats have people with their phones on, checking FB, texting, and talking throughout.   
 

Watching movies at home is a far superior experience for our family.

No crowds.  $7.00 for the whole family to watch. 
 

Better popcorn and treats that don’t cost a fortune.  
 

I can relax with a drink and not have to worry about driving.   We can pause or rewind as needed.  
 

I know some are hoping for another result but I believe Corona is gonna kill the movie theater biz.   

 

 

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

8 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Unfortunately, it’s still that in most places.   

Even the Lazy Boy theaters with reserved seats have people with their phones on, checking FB, texting, and talking throughout.   
 

Watching movies at home is a far superior experience for our family.

No crowds.  $7.00 for the whole family to watch. 
 

Better popcorn and treats that don’t cost a fortune.  
 

I can relax with a drink and not have to worry about driving.   We can pause or rewind as needed.  
 

I know some are hoping for another result but I believe Corona is gonna kill the movie theater biz.   

 

 

I think Corona may be the death blow, but it has been in decline for years. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

6 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

I think Corona may be the death blow, but it has been in decline for years. 

This was the first year that I gave my kids tickets to AMC for Christmas as a stocking stuffer. We get some at work at a discount, so I figured they may want to go with friends or a date (they are 16 & 18). Working out well.

[frank 2,144]

2 hours ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

I think Corona may be the death blow, but it has been in decline for years. 

 

[bandrus1 413]

AMC 26 percent since low Friday

[Strike 3,950]

On 4/5/2020 at 8:25 AM, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Yep. Soon the major studios will stream first run releases straight to our homes. And when they do, I will never set foot in a theatre again. 

They've already started.  But movie theaters still have a place.  I thought they were on their way out about a decade ago because they had outdated tech, were extremely overpriced, and uncomfortable.  They're still overpriced, especially for snacks/drinks, but they're much more comfortable and have much better tech than they used to.  What do you watch movies on, a 15" laptop screen?  I have a dedicated home theater with a 77" OLED screen and good surround sound system.  It's very good but still no match for a theater when watching an epic action movie.  I don't go to a lot of movies but a few times a year it's worth it.

[Cdub100 3,370]

Shares of Carnival Corp.(CCL) soared 18% on heavy volume Monday, after the Saudi Arabia-based sovereign wealth fund The Public Investment Fund disclosed that it has acquired a 43.5 million shares, or an 8.2% stake, in the cruise operator

[Leeson 54]

26 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Shares of Carnival Corp.(CCL) soared 18% on heavy volume Monday, after the Saudi Arabia-based sovereign wealth fund The Public Investment Fund disclosed that it has acquired a 43.5 million shares, or an 8.2% stake, in the cruise operator

Saudi's are going to use them to haul oil.

[Cdub100 3,370]

3 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Saudi's are going to use them to haul oil.

 Can you imagine? 

I want to dump more money in CCL right now, but I'm not. I hit my share threshold. Need to start putting buying more blue chips.

[Leeson 54]

Lot's of talk about the stock market being a gamble. Got me thinking, what casino game would represent your investment strategy? 

Thinking slots are the worst. Just dumping money into the market with no real plan. 

Roulette would be smaller risk, spread out over a field of stocks, with hopes of a big return. No real strategy. Picking your favorite businesses, like playing your birthday.

Craps, knowing the odds are against you. But you still want to look like a boss.

Poker, you have everyone else at the table figured out. Just to have the river kick your ass.

 

[Cdub100 3,370]

2 hours ago, Leeson said:

Lot's of talk about the stock market being a gamble. Got me thinking, what casino game would represent your investment strategy? 

Thinking slots are the worst. Just dumping money into the market with no real plan. 

Roulette would be smaller risk, spread out over a field of stocks, with hopes of a big return. No real strategy. Picking your favorite businesses, like playing your birthday.

Craps, knowing the odds are against you. But you still want to look like a boss.

Poker, you have everyone else at the table figured out. Just to have the river kick your ass.

 

If the stock market is a casino we are the house. We win in the long run.

[bandrus1 413]

5 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

If the stock market is a casino we are the house. We win in the long wrong.

Yep

[Cdub100 3,370]

1 minute ago, bandrus1 said:

Yep

*run 

[bandrus1 413]

2 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

*run 

huh

[Leeson 54]

20 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

If the stock market is a casino we are the house. We win in the long run.

The stock market is the house.

We are the degenerate gamblers with a Pabst Blue Ribbon tall boy in one hand and half smoked Kool in the other, screaming at tv screen, hoping to hit a $2 trifecta as if our lives depended on it. 

[Cdub100 3,370]

 

 

 

 

3

2 minutes ago, Leeson said:

The stock market is the house.

We are the degenerate gamblers with a Pabst Blue Ribbon tall boy in one hand and half smoked Kool in the other, screaming at tv screen, hoping to hit a $2 trifecta as if our lives depended on it. 

You don't go into a casino, give them $1000 a month and leave a millionaire 30 years later.  It's the casino that becomes the millionaire and that's us. Sure sometimes we have someone come in and take a big chunk of our money, sometimes we don't hedge our bets right and and upset happens, but if we just keep the tables open we make that back and then some overtime. The %'s are in our favor

 

[Leeson 54]

You can't just put $1000 down on any stock and expect it to grow over 30 years. I have a portfolio to prove it. 

I made a similar comparison to how people perceive gamblers in a casino. The Roulette players think the slot players as wasting their money. The craps players think the Roulette players are suckers. And the poker players think everyone in the casino is pissing their money away, while they are making calculated risks. 

 

[Cdub100 3,370]

4 minutes ago, Leeson said:

You can't just put $1000 down on any stock and expect it to grow over 30 years. I have a portfolio to prove it. 

I made a similar comparison to how people perceive gamblers in a casino. The Roulette players think the slot players as wasting their money. The craps players think the Roulette players are suckers. And the poker players think everyone in the casino is pissing their money away, while they are making calculated risks. 

 

Index funds...

[Cdub100 3,370]

To further extrapolate on index funds.

We are the casino. That means we get to decide what games we play. Each game is a stock.  

Blackjack is our risker stocks because the players have a better chance of winning.

Table games are our blue chip stocks

Slots are our bonds we control the payout for the most part and we are better to protect against loss.

Just like an index fund we don't build a casino and fill it with blackjack tables. No, we have a little bit of everything.

Over time we have some bad days or months, but so long as people keep playing we will win over time.

[Leeson 54]

2 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Index funds...

Blackjack...lol

Actually, index funds are where 95% of my money goes. I tried individual stocks after the last crash in 2008. AIG and GM (the other one) are two that come to mind. 

I don't like the risk. Which is why I usually play 25 cent Keno with a gambling budget of $5. 

 

[Leeson 54]

1 minute ago, Cdub100 said:

To further extrapolate on index funds.

We are the casino. That means we get to decide what games we play. Each game is a stock.  

Blackjack is our risker stocks because the players have a better chance of winning.

Table games are our blue chip stocks

Slots are our bonds we control the payout for the most part and we are better to protect against loss.

Just like an index fund we don't build a casino and fill it with blackjack tables. No, we have a little bit of everything.

Over time we have some bad days or months, but so long as people keep playing we will win over time.

You don't control anything with the stock market or casinos. Except how much money you put at risk and when.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Nice little strike on RUTH... picked it up on Friday for 5.33... sold today at 6.75...  sweet +26.64%...

[mmmmm...beer 691]

Still waiting on NCLH to bump a little more... hopefully tomorrow...

This PSEC I picked up off a suggestion has been meh...  I may just dimp it for capital.

Switching from Robin Hood to Ameritrade so I need to liquify all my stuff to transfer.

Today... was not a buying day...

I'm still debating grabbing AMC for a long hold... for what... $300?  That could go to $10 by summer easily.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

I'm still developing my strategy.  What do I want to hold long term?  What so I want to play due to the volatility going on right now?  Do I want to get into options or just full swings right now?

What's enough to pull the trigger on a winner or pull the plug on a dog?

I got a guy sorta mentoring me through the learning process for short plays... he uses 15% as his strike point... he get's up +15% sell.... down -15% dump it.  He may let something ride up if it's skyrocketing as he's watching it... but.. the main point is don't let greed get in the pay.... don't be afraid to take your profit and move on.  Same thing on the other side... if you've started dropping from what your research told you was a good buy price.... dump out.  You can always buy back in later, but you don't want to be left holding the bag.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

2 minutes ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I'm still developing my strategy.  What do I want to hold long term?  What so I want to play due to the volatility going on right now?  Do I want to get into options or just full swings right now?

What's enough to pull the trigger on a winner or pull the plug on a dog?

I got a guy sorta mentoring me through the learning process for short plays... he uses 15% as his strike point... he get's up +15% sell.... down -15% dump it.  He may let something ride up if it's skyrocketing as he's watching it... but.. the main point is don't let greed get in the pay.... don't be afraid to take your profit and move on.  Same thing on the other side... if you've started dropping from what your research told you was a good buy price.... dump out.  You can always buy back in later, but you don't want to be left holding the bag.

Making money is always easy.  Keep up the good work.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

34 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Making money is always easy.  Keep up the good work.

Man there really is something to be said about that... once you have money... money YOU made... it sure seems like its much easier to make more.  It's getting over that initial hump on how it's done.

The rich get richer, money begets money and all that...

[Cdub100 3,370]

1 hour ago, Leeson said:

You don't control anything with the stock market or casinos. Except how much money you put at risk and when.

So kind of like table limits that the casino controls ...

[Cdub100 3,370]

1 hour ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I'm still developing my strategy.  What do I want to hold long term?  What so I want to play due to the volatility going on right now?  Do I want to get into options or just full swings right now?

What's enough to pull the trigger on a winner or pull the plug on a dog?

I got a guy sorta mentoring me through the learning process for short plays... he uses 15% as his strike point... he get's up +15% sell.... down -15% dump it.  He may let something ride up if it's skyrocketing as he's watching it... but.. the main point is don't let greed get in the pay.... don't be afraid to take your profit and move on.  Same thing on the other side... if you've started dropping from what your research told you was a good buy price.... dump out.  You can always buy back in later, but you don't want to be left holding the bag.

If your short term trading the best advice I have is let your winners keep winning and cut your losers quick. 

When I was day trading I cut loose at -10%

*I got into trouble when I was trading visa options in 2018. The economy was strong but I was too early with my calls. So I learned a hard lesson. Being to early is the same as being wrong when trading options.

With stocks if you know the company and they are strong I would hold stocks through a small down turn.

JMHO

[Leeson 54]

6 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

So kind of like table limits that the casino controls ...

Not sure I see how that works.

Whether it's the stock market or casinos, nothing happens if we (investor or gambler) don't put money at risk. Casinos would cease to exist. Businesses would endure, they just wouldn't be publicly traded.