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Is it time to get out of the market?

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Expanding on the concept. Casinos rake is similar to investment fees. They always seem to get paid.

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21 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Not sure I see how that works.

Whether it's the stock market or casinos, nothing happens if we (investor or gambler) don't put money at risk. Casinos would cease to exist. Businesses would endure, they just wouldn't be publicly traded.

My point is we are the casinos. We are not the losers who come in day after day losing whatever case they can scrap together. 

It is a statistical fact that if you put your money to work in the market in the long term it will grow. Just like it's a statistical fact if you keep gambling you will lose.

Ok I'm dumb with your analogy

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3 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

My point is we are the casinos. We are not the losers who come in day after day losing whatever case they can scrap together. 

It is a statistical fact that if you put your money to work in the market in the long term it will grow. Just like it's a statistical fact if you keep gambling you will lose.

Ok I'm dumb with your analogy

Freudian slip?

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Moved $30,000 more  into cash from the market.  I hate rooting for losses but kind of expect the market to drop and then I’ll rebuy.

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1 hour ago, Leeson said:

Freudian slip?

No, I'm dumber with his analogy and trying to explain why it's wrong.

But yeah I focked up.

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3 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Moved $30,000 more  into cash from the market.  I hate rooting for losses but kind of expect the market to drop and then I’ll rebuy.

The smart guy in our group.... doctorate of applied statistics... says even after today he thinks this week ends up red and the month of april is red.

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12 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

No, I'm dumber with his analogy and trying to explain why it's wrong.

But yeah I focked up.

It's just a conversation. After 3 weeks of being locked up, we are going to run out of things to talk about. 

It's only going to get worse.

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3 minutes ago, Leeson said:

It's just a conversation. After 3 weeks of being locked up, we are going to run out of things to talk about. 

It's only going to get worse.

Do you guys want to hear about my colonoscopy?  I have pictures.  :lol:

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24 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Do you guys want to hear about my colonoscopy?  I have pictures.  :lol:

I'll take an 8x10 glossy.

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1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Do you guys want to hear about my colonoscopy?  I have pictures.  :lol:

Is there a video?

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AMC popped another +20% this morning... decently into 3 now.

Sold my NCLH... in st 10.11 and out at 12.11

 

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31 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Is there a video?

I did not get a video, but I will request one for you guys.  Let me see on streaming options.  Maybe PPV?

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CCL & RCL continue thier climb.

That being said most other stocks are continuing to climb. Be careful. It could still very well be a bull trap.

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3 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

CCL & RCL continue thier climb.

That being said most other stocks are continuing to climb. Be careful. It could still very well be a bull trap.

I think that there will be a big sell off this morning.  Still a lot of uncertainty and there are people like you who are taking their gains and running.  ;)

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Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I think that there will be a big sell off this morning.  Still a lot of uncertainty and there are people like you who are taking their gains and running.  ;)

I thought about taking my gains, but I don't want to be that investor any more. 

Earlier in this thread I talked about wanting to be a long term dividend investor. That's still the goal even though I sold everything in Feb and now just starting to move back into the market.

Slow and steady. I'm going to hold these bags and keep moving into high quality stocks.

I bought QCOM & ABBV today

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On 4/7/2020 at 9:29 AM, Cdub100 said:

I thought about taking my gains, but I don't want to be that investor any more. 

Earlier in this thread I talked about wanting to be a long term dividend investor. That's still the goal even though I sold everything in Feb and now just starting to move back into the market.

Slow and steady. I'm going to hold these bags and keep moving into high quality stocks.

I bought QCOM & ABBV today

I'm starting to think about dumping everything into cash as we've had a good run off the bottom.   MN just extended their shelter in place order and I think many other states will do the same.  The economy is focked.   

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7 minutes ago, NorthernVike said:

I'm starting to think about dumping everything into cash as we've had a good run off the bottom.   MN just extended their shelter in place order and I think many other states will do the same.  The economy is focked.   

The government won't let it crash. They will keep pumping. That being said I would not be surprised to see a sell-off tomorrow.

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4 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

The government won't let it crash. They will keep pumping. That being said I would not be surprised to see a sell-off tomorrow.

One thing I know is that the government can't/won't move fast enough to stop a crash.  Will they turn around and pump trillions in after the fact?  Sure, but they won't be able to stop it from happening. 

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39 minutes ago, NorthernVike said:

One thing I know is that the government can't/won't move fast enough to stop a crash.  Will they turn around and pump trillions in after the fact?  Sure, but they won't be able to stop it from happening. 

IMO there is no need.  The sell off might be over and the market held.  Pleasant surprise.  Look at the Covid news, it's generally good and that is what the buyers have been waiting for. Particularly the improving news being well in time for summer.  

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2 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

IMO there is no need.  The sell off might be over and the market held.  Pleasant surprise.  Look at the Covid news, it's generally good and that is what the buyers have been waiting for. Particularly the improving news being well in time for summer.  

So far the market has only traded on fear.  In the next few weeks we will get earnings and future guidance.  It will not be good.  

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Just now, NorthernVike said:

So far the market has only traded on fear.  In the next few weeks we will get earnings and future guidance.  It will not be good.  

The market has traded on speculation.  Every company has been given an earnings get out of jail free card. Great companies at bargain prices doesn't happen often, and it's happening now. 

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56 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

The market has traded on speculation.  Every company has been given an earnings get out of jail free card. Great companies at bargain prices doesn't happen often, and it's happening now. 

Agreed and investors are pricing those losses in. I know when I see a balance sheet I'm not going to say wow they had a bad qtr this company sucks.

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Picked up UCO & USO

UCO burned me a couple years back... we'll see how she runs this time.  Could double if that meeting goes well tomorrow.

 

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I learned I can only move money out of my TSP G fund twice a month. So focking stupid. 

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16 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I learned I can only move money out of my TSP G fund twice a month. So focking stupid. 

They used to allow daily moves. Then they corrected this and made it twice a month between any fund. After that, you can only move it to the G fund.  (as many times as you want). Big whoop.

The other thing that sucks is the amount of time it takes to make the transfer. You have to put the order in before noon and it's processed some time before midnight. After noon, and it doesn't get processed until the next day. I'm picturing some guy that looks like Rob Moranis entering your change orders into a PC running Windows 95.

 

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7 minutes ago, Leeson said:

They used to allow daily moves. Then they corrected this and made it twice a month between any fund. After that, you can only move it to the G fund.  (as many times as you want). Big whoop.

The other thing that sucks is the amount of time it takes to make the transfer. You have to put the order in before noon and it's processed some time before midnight. After noon, and it doesn't get processed until the next day. I'm picturing some guy that looks like Rob Moranis entering your change orders into a PC running Windows 95.

 

It's funny because I tell people as soon as I retire I'm transferring all my sheet out if tsp and into fidelity.

They are like what's wrong with tsp?

 

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19 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

It's funny because I tell people as soon as I retire I'm transferring all my sheet out if tsp and into fidelity.

They are like what's wrong with tsp?

 

The only thing it has going for it is lower fees. Otherwise, I can't think of any other reason. 

With the current stimulus plan, I was wondering if I could find a way to move $100k now with minimal taxes. Maybe a transfer to another IRA?

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1 hour ago, Leeson said:

The only thing it has going for it is lower fees. Otherwise, I can't think of any other reason. 

With the current stimulus plan, I was wondering if I could find a way to move $100k now with minimal taxes. Maybe a transfer to another IRA?

I was looking into that too but the only thing I found was a one time transfer when you retire.

If you find anything I'd love to move my money too.

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32 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Oh I'm a ways away if I even continue to go after it.

I read about being able to take money out of your 401k but I'm looking to transfer to another account.

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6 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

I learned I can only move money out of my TSP G fund twice a month. So focking stupid. 

I went 50C/50S yesterday.... fockin missed the M-W +15% :(

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13 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I went 50C/50S yesterday.... fockin missed the M-W +15% :(

I had moved 7% C and 3% S. I was going to bump that to 15% (10 & 5) but couldn't.

Maybe I got lucky because we should see another sell off.

Since the big funds know the feds will buy anything any chance they keep pumping and then drop everything knowing the Fed is slow to act and when they do rinse and repeat.

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On 4/6/2020 at 7:07 PM, Alias Detective said:

Moved $30,000 more  into cash from the market.  I hate rooting for losses but kind of expect the market to drop and then I’ll rebuy.

Ouch you lost out on some huge gains.

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So what's everyone's call for next week? I'm thinking we keep climbing and end the week up +3%

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15 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

If they go I wonder who steps in. Also it is going to absolutely kill retail real estate developers and malls

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15 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

If they go I wonder who steps in. Also it is going to absolutely kill retail real estate developers and malls

Probably the Chinese. Or their proxy. 

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15 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

If they go I wonder who steps in. Also it is going to absolutely kill retail real estate developers and malls

I would argue the players have already stepped in, Netflix, Disney+, Amazon etc... 

This was just the death nail.

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8 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I would argue the players have already stepped in, Netflix, Disney+, Amazon etc... 

This was just the death nail.

I just can't buy that the traditional movie experience is dead. Could be completely wrong

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