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UPDATED: Doug Orth's Big Boards - Top 200

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Happy Big Board day! Kicking this year's version off with the Top 150 for PPR leagues. As usual, Doug's BB's come with a color-coded schedule highlighting positive and negative matchups and plenty of player commentary. Enjoy!

Top 200 PPR - 8/28/19
Top 200 Half-PPR - 8/28/19
Top 200 Non-PPR - 8/28/19

Top 225 TFC - 8/27/19

Top 150 PPR - 8/6/19
Top 150 Non-PPR - 8/10/19
Top 150 Half-PPR - 8/13/19

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I will take Hill as the 8th wr. I am hoping to have mid to later pick so I can pair someone like DJ and Hill. Although both of my dynasties already feature those two... 

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System seems strange to me... and, I don't know, make shift - is that the right phrase?  Look, I'm not huge fan of Jameis Winston, in fact, I almost hope that the Bucs win only 5 games so that they move on from him in the off-season.  I don't think anyone here would argue that Winston is a mediocre to bad QB, but for fantasy purposes, he's likely to be great.  Just look at last year.  He played in 11 games (technically only 10 because he only played in 40 Q's), and averaged about 300 yards and 2 TD's a game... with being thrown into the fire after a limited off-season.  Yeah, I know he's going to throw a lot of Int's because he's not a good QB, but the volume will be there with Bruce Arians.  This team, with below average RB's will throw the ball about 600 times.  If we assume the Bucs throw the ball 600 times, that's 37.5 attempts per game.  Assuming he plays to his average 7.6 y/a, that'll put him at 285 yards per game which is 4500 yards.  That's if he has an "average" season.  Average will also put him at 28 TD (considering 4.6% TD on 600 attempts).  Last year, only 5 QB's threw for at least 4500 yards and 28 TD's (to note, 4 of the 5 threw at least 12 Int's), and one could argue that all 5 have good to great HC's.

In these rankings, no QB has 2 WR's in the top 15 AND a top 5 TE, except for Winston.  Just for comparison purposes, Carson Wentz is ranked 4th and has a top 5 TE and 2 WR's outside the top 30.  Evans, Godwin, and Howard have a total SSI of 253.9 while Ertz, Jeffrey, and Jackson are at 137.7.  I don't see how Wentz can have an SSI of 44 and Winston a 2.

Last year, the Bucs threw the ball 625 times and the Eagles 599.  With the acquisition of Howard and drafting of Sanders... plus Wentz's injury history, do you really think the Eagles are going to throw the ball that many times this year?  I don't.  With no upgrade at RB in Tampa, do you think the Bucs are going to throw much less than they did last year?  I don't.

In an NFL draft, I'm taking Wentz many many rounds ahead of Winston.  In a fantasy, I'm taking Winston as a top 5 QB and Wentz as a QB2.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

System seems strange to me... and, I don't know, make shift - is that the right phrase?  Look, I'm not huge fan of Jameis Winston, in fact, I almost hope that the Bucs win only 5 games so that they move on from him in the off-season.  I don't think anyone here would argue that Winston is a mediocre to bad QB, but for fantasy purposes, he's likely to be great.  Just look at last year.  He played in 11 games (technically only 10 because he only played in 40 Q's), and averaged about 300 yards and 2 TD's a game... with being thrown into the fire after a limited off-season.  Yeah, I know he's going to throw a lot of Int's because he's not a good QB, but the volume will be there with Bruce Arians.  This team, with below average RB's will throw the ball about 600 times.  If we assume the Bucs throw the ball 600 times, that's 37.5 attempts per game.  Assuming he plays to his average 7.6 y/a, that'll put him at 285 yards per game which is 4500 yards.  That's if he has an "average" season.  Average will also put him at 28 TD (considering 4.6% TD on 600 attempts).  Last year, only 5 QB's threw for at least 4500 yards and 28 TD's (to note, 4 of the 5 threw at least 12 Int's), and one could argue that all 5 have good to great HC's.

In these rankings, no QB has 2 WR's in the top 15 AND a top 5 TE, except for Winston.  Just for comparison purposes, Carson Wentz is ranked 4th and has a top 5 TE and 2 WR's outside the top 30.  Evans, Godwin, and Howard have a total SSI of 253.9 while Ertz, Jeffrey, and Jackson are at 137.7.  I don't see how Wentz can have an SSI of 44 and Winston a 2.

Last year, the Bucs threw the ball 625 times and the Eagles 599.  With the acquisition of Howard and drafting of Sanders... plus Wentz's injury history, do you really think the Eagles are going to throw the ball that many times this year?  I don't.  With no upgrade at RB in Tampa, do you think the Bucs are going to throw much less than they did last year?  I don't.

In an NFL draft, I'm taking Wentz many many rounds ahead of Winston.  In a fantasy, I'm taking Winston as a top 5 QB and Wentz as a QB2.

Will address this at a later time. I am being intentionally vague on SSI for a multitude of reasons. However, I assure there is nothing makeshift about the process or the Big Board.

For example, it appears you are assuming that I'm assuming JW will play all 16 games and/or hit all of his last year's efficiency marks. Ditto for Wentz. I am basing almost everything off my target/carry/efficiency projections. I think with a restocked shelf of weapons, Wentz will play at an MVP level this season. I also think Tampa averages at least 1-2 more run plays this season and won't jack it up 625 times again.

SSI is a value metric that helps me compare apples and oranges. Don't read into it much more than that.

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14 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Will address this at a later time. I am being intentionally vague on SSI for a multitude of reasons. However, I assure there is nothing makeshift about the process or the Big Board.

For example, it appears you are assuming that I'm assuming JW will play all 16 games and/or hit all of his last year's efficiency marks. Ditto for Wentz. I am basing almost everything off my target/carry/efficiency projections. I think with a restocked shelf of weapons, Wentz will play at an MVP level this season. I also think Tampa averages at least 1-2 more run plays this season and won't jack it up 625 times again.

SSI is a value metric that helps me compare apples and oranges. Don't read into it much more than that.

Yeah, I didn't want to imply that the board or process was junk, I really didn't have a word at the time to describe it.  With more time, I think enigmatic is a better word.

I don't really see any reason why Winston wouldn't play all 16 games.  He did in his first 2 years and had it not been for the suspension last year, he most likely would've played all 16 last year too.  I don't see a suspension coming for this season.  Wentz has been injured each of his last 4 seasons (including his last year at ND), and missed games in 3 of them.  He's much more likely to not play all 16 that Winston is.

Also, I didn't really use any metrics for Winston that weren't reasonable.  Tampa didn't upgrade their OLine or their backfield.  Their defense, until further notice, I fully expect to be in the bottom tier again.  Also, Winston is a turnover machine, so I do expect him to turn the ball over about 15+ times (between fumbles and INT's), and will contribute to the Bucs' defensive demise.  That said, while Winston is not all that good of a QB, he is talented.  The 600 attempts to me seems reasonable when you consider the number of consecutive non-Tampa games, the tough schedule, and the lack of overall talent on the defense.  The y/a number I used was his career average which is lower than the last 2 seasons and the TD% I used would be lower than last year as well as his 3rd best, so it's not like I used career highs to estimate his production.  I can actually see the Bucs running the ball less this year.

To note, my 600 attempts estimation was just a random number.  If you take the number of pass attempts that Winston has in his career (1922), and divide that by the number of starts (54 - because there a handful of games where he did not play 4 Q's), that projects to 570 attempts over 16 games.  Last year, the Bucs threw the ball 625 times, Winston projects to 570 in a season... the midpoint of those two numbers is 597, so I rounded up.  Even if you go with 570, that's still a 4300 yard season.  If you're assuming that Winston won't play all 16 games, then that's fine, but I really don't see that as likely since the Bucs are really going to push for Winston to have a big year because they don't want to be proven wrong about picking him - though I don't think they'll be able to.  I don't really see this team being much better than 5-11 or 6-10, but to me, that means a lot of throwing.

Overall, I thought the whole thing was pretty good.  This was just something that popped out to me as odd.

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Jameis Winston is as close to eating an L and getting lol'ed out of the league as he is to winning you a fantasy championship. Because he is a Turd in an RL draft means he could turn into a pumpkin in fantasy. Meanwhile, Matt Stafford has thrown for over 4k yards most years, is still in primo years, has two of the most exciting young weapons in football and a healthy Marvin Jones this year. He has zero chance of loling out of league, they will probably not be out to any big leads and Kerryon can't make that offensive a top 5 rushing O. Adrian's is also smart enough to know he doesn't need to latch his new coaching gig to a sinking QB. Drafting a new one next year after cutting bait would buy him a couple more years. 

 

*Disclaimer: I recently traded Winston for Stafford and a 2nd rounder because I value security over hype. 

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25 minutes ago, Spec7ral said:

Jameis Winston is as close to eating an L and getting lol'ed out of the league as he is to winning you a fantasy championship. Because he is a Turd in an RL draft means he could turn into a pumpkin in fantasy. Meanwhile, Matt Stafford has thrown for over 4k yards most years, is still in primo years, has two of the most exciting young weapons in football and a healthy Marvin Jones this year. He has zero chance of loling out of league, they will probably not be out to any big leads and Kerryon can't make that offensive a top 5 rushing O. Adrian's is also smart enough to know he doesn't need to latch his new coaching gig to a sinking QB. Drafting a new one next year after cutting bait would buy him a couple more years. 

 

*Disclaimer: I recently traded Winston for Stafford and a 2nd rounder because I value security over hype. 

Not counting the game he didn't start, Winston averaged over 20 ppg last year and in standard leagues ranked in the top 8 in average.  So yes, while he is a crappy NFL QB, he's a good fantasy QB.

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That’s all that matters in ff, can you score ff points, and Winston does deliver. 

 

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

That’s all that matters in ff, can you score ff points, and Winston does deliver. 

 

Exactly.  I think he has legit top 5 fantasy potential as well as be a NFL free agent come March because the Bucs are ready to move on.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Exactly.  I think he has legit top 5 fantasy potential as well as be a NFL free agent come March because the Bucs are ready to move on.

if you, as a fan, want him gone - any chance the franchise will be looking for other options as the season rolls on?  they did last year...

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1 hour ago, cavern said:

if you, as a fan, want him gone - any chance the franchise will be looking for other options as the season rolls on?  they did last year...

No, Jason Licht needs Winston to play all 16 games or both of them are going to be looking for new jobs.  The ONLY way Winston gets pulled is if he's throwing a TON of Int's.  Wins/Losses don't matter.  The only reason why Winston was even pulled last year was because Koetter was coaching for his job.  Had Fitzpatrick come back in and won games and the Bucs finished with 9+ wins, Koetter is the HC, Fitzpatrick is the starter, Winston would be gone, and the Bucs may have drafted a QB back in April.

 

Something else to consider is that Fitzpatrick got all of the work with the 1's last off-season and hit the ground running.  Winston came in after being away for a month.  That's not going to happen this year.  Winston will dominate the reps with Gabbert and Griffin getting almost nothing.  With Arians, the Bucs will put up big numbers.  Wins are questionable, but the numbers aren't.

 

If I were the GM, I'd have never brought Winston back for this year and drafted his replacement.  Jason Licht has to believe in Winston because his job depends on it.

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Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

No, Jason Licht needs Winston to play all 16 games or both of them are going to be looking for new jobs.  The ONLY way Winston gets pulled is if he's throwing a TON of Int's.  Wins/Losses don't matter.  The only reason why Winston was even pulled last year was because Koetter was coaching for his job.  Had Fitzpatrick come back in and won games and the Bucs finished with 9+ wins, Koetter is the HC, Fitzpatrick is the starter, Winston would be gone, and the Bucs may have drafted a QB back in April.

 

Something else to consider is that Fitzpatrick got all of the work with the 1's last off-season and hit the ground running.  Winston came in after being away for a month.  That's not going to happen this year.  Winston will dominate the reps with Gabbert and Griffin getting almost nothing.  With Arians, the Bucs will put up big numbers.  Wins are questionable, but the numbers aren't.

thanks for the background.  i have winston in a keeper/dynasty so it's good to hear

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On 8/7/2019 at 9:31 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

Not counting the game he didn't start, Winston averaged over 20 ppg last year and in standard leagues ranked in the top 8 in average.  So yes, while he is a crappy NFL QB, he's a good fantasy QB.

 

On 8/7/2019 at 3:17 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

No, Jason Licht needs Winston to play all 16 games or both of them are going to be looking for new jobs.  The ONLY way Winston gets pulled is if he's throwing a TON of Int's.  Wins/Losses don't matter.  The only reason why Winston was even pulled last year was because Koetter was coaching for his job.  Had Fitzpatrick come back in and won games and the Bucs finished with 9+ wins, Koetter is the HC, Fitzpatrick is the starter, Winston would be gone, and the Bucs may have drafted a QB back in April.

 

Something else to consider is that Fitzpatrick got all of the work with the 1's last off-season and hit the ground running.  Winston came in after being away for a month.  That's not going to happen this year.  Winston will dominate the reps with Gabbert and Griffin getting almost nothing.  With Arians, the Bucs will put up big numbers.  Wins are questionable, but the numbers aren't.

 

If I were the GM, I'd have never brought Winston back for this year and drafted his replacement.  Jason Licht has to believe in Winston because his job depends on it.

Had our money league draft last night(2 keepers) decided to keep Winston in the 8th as 7 other qb's were also being kept.Granted I don't know near what you do about your team but I have to think new coach,contract year,no Fitz and hitting the ground running from week 1 are all positives.My biggest concern is our league is -3 for int's.

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8 hours ago, nzoner said:

 

Had our money league draft last night(2 keepers) decided to keep Winston in the 8th as 7 other qb's were also being kept.Granted I don't know near what you do about your team but I have to think new coach,contract year,no Fitz and hitting the ground running from week 1 are all positives.My biggest concern is our league is -3 for int's.

There were quite a few kept qbs in my keeper that I thought didn't offer much value as a keeper. I decided against keeping one because I thought the value just didn't justify it.

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On 8/6/2019 at 9:49 AM, Mike FF Today said:

Happy Big Board day! Kicking this year's version off with the Top 150 for PPR leagues. As usual, Doug's BB's come with a color-coded schedule highlighting positive and negative matchups and plenty of player commentary. Enjoy!

Top 150 PPR - 8/6/19
Top 150 Non-PPR - 8/10/19

Looking at the strength of schedule, I would think CMC or Kamara should be rated ahead of Barkley in non ppr. There is a lot of tasty green on CMCs sched

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6 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Looking at the strength of schedule, I would think CMC or Kamara should be rated ahead of Barkley in non ppr. There is a lot of tasty green on CMCs sched

Again, if someone (anyone) can convince me CMC is going to get the work at the goal line, I'd go with him regardless of format. Payton has already said he's fine with Kamara's workload, so it is likely 370 touches for Barkley versus 300-ish for CMC and 275-ish for Kamara. Especially in non-PPR, volume wins.

In a vacuum, I'll take 350-plus touches from Barkley and hope he makes something out of nothing once every 20 touches rather than hope Kamara or CMC's efficiency saves my day (again, especially in non-PPR).

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I don’t belive what Payton is saying about Kamara. 

I’m sure he would like to persevere him early in the season, but hes probably Payton’s best player when he’s on the field. 

I like L Murray on this team, but he’s not Ingram. 

I think Kamara gets more rush atts and more goalline work. 

 

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3 hours ago, weepaws said:

I don’t belive what Payton is saying about Kamara. 

I’m sure he would like to persevere him early in the season, but hes probably Payton’s best player when he’s on the field. 

I like L Murray on this team, but he’s not Ingram. 

I think Kamara gets more rush atts and more goalline work. 

 

I think Lats and Ingram are pretty similar players. Murray has averaged .4 ypc less than Ingram, and he hasnt had the benefit of playing for the Saints in the past like Ingram. 

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6 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Again, if someone (anyone) can convince me CMC is going to get the work at the goal line, I'd go with him regardless of format. Payton has already said he's fine with Kamara's workload, so it is likely 370 touches for Barkley versus 300-ish for CMC and 275-ish for Kamara. Especially in non-PPR, volume wins.

In a vacuum, I'll take 350-plus touches from Barkley and hope he makes something out of nothing once every 20 touches rather than hope Kamara or CMC's efficiency saves my day (again, especially in non-PPR).

Yeah I can't argue with that. My true number 1 is David Johnson. He is going to be on a very good offense this year as the main carry guy, and the offense should be able to use his excellent receiving ability much better than last year. I fear a little sniping from Murray near the goal line, but they should have quite a few more chances. If I didn't already have a lot of shares of Johnson I would take him. You have convinced me on Barkley because of touches, and because my league awards 3 bonus points for 50 yard touch downs.

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16 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Yeah I can't argue with that. My true number 1 is David Johnson. He is going to be on a very good offense this year as the main carry guy, and the offense should be able to use his excellent receiving ability much better than last year. I fear a little sniping from Murray near the goal line, but they should have quite a few more chances. If I didn't already have a lot of shares of Johnson I would take him. You have convinced me on Barkley because of touches, and because my league awards 3 bonus points for 50 yard touch downs.

Hear you on DJ. I made the argument on Twitter during Scott Fish Bowl in July about my surprise that DJ wasn't being discussed at No.1 along with the other top four backs. I agree Kyler will probably vulture a few shorties, and I wonder just how many carries DJ will see in general. (I have him at 226 at the moment and Kyler at 114.) Even with minimal contributions from other players, the team carry total gets to 425 pretty quickly. My other concern is just how much drop-off DJ will experience if Kyler gets hurt. With as much as I expect the rookie to run and at his size, I do expect him to miss at least a game or two.

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Maybe this questions has already been asked and answered, but Guru, are you factoring in Zeke and Grodon's holdouts in your current big board? If not, when would you start bumping them down? And if you do grab one, are you looking to do anything to mitigate the risk such as reaching for Ekler, or trying to find safer mid round players?

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Hey Brutus, I think I covered both players in my column last week. I'm definitely hitting them again this week. Let me know if you have any more questions after tomorrow.

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Looking at the talent label around Barkley (or lack thereof) he will be force fed the ball.

so much of Kamara’s game is speed and Brees has more talent to spread it around.

If CMC can get some goal line carries I think he has more upside than Kamara.

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Trey Quinn at #112 on .5 PPR?  Is this a typo?

😜

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1 hour ago, BuschWack said:

Trey Quinn at #112 on .5 PPR?  Is this a typo?

😜

I have him projected for 61-704-4, so no typo.

The real question in my mind is whether or not last year's inability to stay healthy will be a consistent theme.

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56 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I have him projected for 61-704-4, so no typo.

The real question in my mind is whether or not last year's inability to stay healthy will be a consistent theme.

Thanks!  He's now on my radar.  Which Skins QB do you feel would most benefit Quinn?

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If I had to pick one, probably Keenum. He has shown a tendency to lean on the slot, plus Gruden's offense has proven to be slot-friendly. Then again, Haskins had Parris Campbell coming out of the slot a lot at OSU, so it may not make a huge difference.

I don't think we're talking league-winning stuff from him either way, although I do think he has Crowder-like upside. Again, health will be key with him.

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48 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

If I had to pick one, probably Keenum. He has shown a tendency to lean on the slot, plus Gruden's offense has proven to be slot-friendly. Then again, Haskins had Parris Campbell coming out of the slot a lot at OSU, so it may not make a huge difference.

I don't think we're talking league-winning stuff from him either way, although I do think he has Crowder-like upside. Again, health will be key with him.

Thanks for doing what you do!

This is why I use your BIG BOARD to counter my ESPN league's terrible rankings which has Quinn at WR83.  I completely agree that Quinn, if healthy, will far outperform is ADP.  The WR situation in WAS is ripe for a talent like him. 

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52 minutes ago, BuschWack said:

Thanks for doing what you do!

This is why I use your BIG BOARD to counter my ESPN league's terrible rankings which has Quinn at WR83.  I completely agree that Quinn, if healthy, will far outperform is ADP.  The WR situation in WAS is ripe for a talent like him. 

👍

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On 8/12/2019 at 11:48 AM, The Football Guru said:

Hey Brutus, I think I covered both players in my column last week. I'm definitely hitting them again this week. Let me know if you have any more questions after tomorrow.

Thanks for answering my question. I have one more of you don't mind.  Are you concerned about the AZ Oline and how it effects DJ? I didn't think they could be worse than last year, but so far they have been.

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2 hours ago, Brutal Brutus said:

Thanks for answering my question. I have one more of you don't mind.  Are you concerned about the AZ Oline and how it effects DJ? I didn't think they could be worse than last year, but so far they have been.

I really think AZ is going to be the prime example of its just preseason. I am going to capitalize on AZ players being discounted. Now I am going to really explore trading Barkley for Johnson plus something else really nice. 

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1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I really think AZ is going to be the prime example of its just preseason. I am going to capitalize on AZ players being discounted. Now I am going to really explore trading Barkley for Johnson plus something else really nice. 

Do you have any data or logic to support your position, or is it just a gut feeling? I did a quick search on OL rankings and the most recent one I found was the Sporting News which ranked Zona 31st. They basically have the same crummy line from last year.

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12 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Do you have any data or logic to support your position, or is it just a gut feeling? I did a quick search on OL rankings and the most recent one I found was the Sporting News which ranked Zona 31st. They basically have the same crummy line from last year.

They actually replaced most their line, they just used the same philosophy. They found injury prone retreads that came on the cheap. I believe in the talent of Murray and DJ, and I think the offensive scheme could work, but if the o line plays at the same level as last year it won't matter.

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12 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Do you have any data or logic to support your position, or is it just a gut feeling? I did a quick search on OL rankings and the most recent one I found was the Sporting News which ranked Zona 31st. They basically have the same crummy line from last year.

Data and logic to prove the preseason doesn't usually mean a whole lot? I think the past decade of fantasy football should tell you all you need to know about preseason. I'm just sticking with my thought that the Air Raid will work offensively in the nfl. I want in on that offense. I'm not going to let a bunch of penalties that screwed with the flow of the game rework my entire ranking system. 

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10 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Data and logic to prove the preseason doesn't usually mean a whole lot? I think the past decade of fantasy football should tell you all you need to know about preseason. I'm just sticking with my thought that the Air Raid will work offensively in the nfl. I want in on that offense. I'm not going to let a bunch of penalties that screwed with the flow of the game rework my entire ranking system. 

No, don't need that. It is self-evident. I will rephrase: Do you have any data that supports the position that Zona's O-Line will be any better than last year, especially running the football, considering they are returning essentially the same league worst unit as last season? I am trying to figure out how to rank DJ, just bouncing ideas, and just wanted to know if you have something other than a gut feeling.

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