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AintNoStoppinMeNow

For those who are waiting on QB

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Who are you targeting?

 

Jameis Winston: The arrival of Bruce Arians can only help. Will throw picks but has high yardage and TD ability with the odd rush here and there. 

Kyler Murray: Extremely intriguing rookie QB who has received glowing praise in camp so far and will play in what should be a fantasy friendly offense. 

Jimmy G: Getting looked over because of the injury last year. Shanny helped Nick Mullins look like a stud last year and the 49ers have added weapons on offense. 

Lamar Jackson: Maybe the biggest wildcard QB in fantasy. If he improves even a little bit with his throwing while maintaining his rushing ability he's the steal of the draft IMO. Hollywood Brown gives the Ravens a game breaker they desperately needed. 

Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold and even Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota all offer intriguing upside based on ADP.

 

In my 15+ years of playing fantasy football I've always preferred to take a QB or two later on while building the rest of my team in the early rounds. As great as it is to have a set it and forget it QB (as well as only one roster spot used on QB) I've always preferred this method. The one season I took a QB high (Aaron Rodgers two years ago), it was Blake f'n Bortles that led me to the championship. Last year, Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck provided amazing value if you waited while guys like Baker, Winston, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson could've been had for free. 

So are you going for one of the big guns early on and not stressing the QB position or grabbing a guy late and trying to stack your team in other spots? 

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I think Cousins will be a real steal based on his ADP.  

 

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Winston and Cousins, are my late round targets. Murray is intriguing, but the intrigue is going to drive up the price I think. Last year I waited until the last rounds to draft a QB and picked up Matty Ice after week 1.I'll probably try a similar strategy unless a top QB slides a bit in my drafts. 

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Wentz, Cam, Goff, Cousins there’s a ton of valuable QBs going very late. I’d say you could even not draft a QB at all and be perfectly fine with streaming this year more than any other in recent memory. Just go to fantasypros, fire up a mock and see who is there round 10.

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Lots of good options out there late. Pick your favorite 2 and you’ll be fine 

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26 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Why wait?

Go for one in the middle rounds?

It's highly streamable , the top 12 has a 50% turnover year to year with many of the top 12 going undrafted or late every year and drafting two late often produces better results than drafting one in the mid rounds. You really need a to land a top 5 QB to make a mid round pick worth it.

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2 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Why wait?

Go for one in the middle rounds?

I've found QB's normally go a lot higher than they should, especially when the QB rush begins. Someone uses a high pick on Mahomes, next person goes crap and reaches higher than they wanted for the next QB cause they don't want to miss out and then it begins. I love plucking RBs and WRs while the rush is going on. Also like stated above, there is a lot of turnover. Mahomes, Luck and Mayfield were all late rounders last year, now they're all in the top 5. I also feel that the QB position is as deep as it has been in years. Don't get me wrong, I will gladly draft a top QB if they were to fall but it's very rare that ever happens. 

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FFToday current QB rankings 2019

 

I would not draft a starting QB not in these top 19

 

1  Patrick Mahomes KC 12
2  Andrew Luck IND 6
3  Deshaun Watson HOU 10
4  Aaron Rodgers GB 11
Tier 2
5  Matt Ryan ATL 9
6  Drew Brees NO 9
7  Jared Goff LAR 9
8  Jameis Winston TB 7
9  Carson Wentz PHI 10
10  Kirk Cousins MIN 12
11  Ben Roethlisberger PIT 7
12  Philip Rivers LAC 12
13  Baker Mayfield CLE 7
14  Cam Newton CAR 7
15  Tom Brady NE 10
16  Russell Wilson SEA 11
17  Dak Prescott DAL 8
18  Mitchell Trubisky CHI 6
19  Kyler Murray ARI 12
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On 8/6/2019 at 10:52 PM, Gepetto said:

FFToday current QB rankings 2019

 

I would not draft a starting QB not in these top 19

 

1  Patrick Mahomes KC 12
2  Andrew Luck IND 6
3  Deshaun Watson HOU 10
4  Aaron Rodgers GB 11
Tier 2
5  Matt Ryan ATL 9
6  Drew Brees NO 9
7  Jared Goff LAR 9
8  Jameis Winston TB 7
9  Carson Wentz PHI 10
10  Kirk Cousins MIN 12
11  Ben Roethlisberger PIT 7
12  Philip Rivers LAC 12
13  Baker Mayfield CLE 7
14  Cam Newton CAR 7
15  Tom Brady NE 10
16  Russell Wilson SEA 11
17  Dak Prescott DAL 8
18  Mitchell Trubisky CHI 6
19  Kyler Murray ARI 12

Damn that’s an absolutely huge list of startable QBs, multiple of which are either late or free in drafts. The best part is that it’s highly likely someone not even on that list breaks into the top 10 or even top 6. Foles? Flacco? No one knows. Russel Wilson annually finishes high and is way down at 16. Cam over his career has usually placed in the top 3-4 QBs (he was top 3 before hurting his shoulder last season). It’s the best year ever to wait on QB.

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Cousins 

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On 8/6/2019 at 10:52 PM, Gepetto said:

FFToday current QB rankings 2019

 

I would not draft a starting QB not in these top 19

 

1  Patrick Mahomes KC 12
2  Andrew Luck IND 6
3  Deshaun Watson HOU 10
4  Aaron Rodgers GB 11
Tier 2
5  Matt Ryan ATL 9
6  Drew Brees NO 9
7  Jared Goff LAR 9
8  Jameis Winston TB 7
9  Carson Wentz PHI 10
10  Kirk Cousins MIN 12
11  Ben Roethlisberger PIT 7
12  Philip Rivers LAC 12
13  Baker Mayfield CLE 7
14  Cam Newton CAR 7
15  Tom Brady NE 10
16  Russell Wilson SEA 11
17  Dak Prescott DAL 8
18  Mitchell Trubisky CHI 6
19  Kyler Murray ARI 12

Does FFToday not count rushing stats in their projections? Seems like they have something against QBs who use their legs. 

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They moved Kyler Murray up to 12 today.  Part of Deshaun Watson's high ranking is his running ability. I think they may think Lamar Jackson and Trubisky won't throw successfully enough?  Russell Wilson doesn't run as much as he used to and attempts less passes than a lot of these other QBs ranked higher.

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Rodgers won’t be a top five ff Qb this season. 

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Just my take from what I've seen so far in drafts;

Winston is everyone's darling.  He may be going later than the very top guys, but he's also at the top of the list for everyone waiting on a QB.  He will go two rounds earlier than you are anticipating.  If you wait on a QB, which I always do, have some backups ready for when the "later" guys go earlier than you anticipate.  I'd suggest having 4 or 5 guys you really wouldn't mind having written down before your draft. 

Marcus M. - I would rather have a backup than him on my team.  It would not shock me in the least if he loses the job at some point to Ryan T.  Overall, he has not been a good QB.  A decent game manager, but not a great QB.  I have him off my list.  There is little reason to suspect he gets better this year, and the Titans have prepared to move on without him as they brought in someone on his level.  

Murray, Jackson and Allen are my late round targets, as is Winston.  Murray has the talent, ego and weapons to thrive.  He doesn't have an offensive line though and plays some tough defenses.  Jackson can be THE #1 QB with some improvement in his passing game.  He can be top 4 with just his legs.  I expect him to be very frustrating to own, but the payoff is likely to be worth it.  His ceiling is higher than almost any QB.  Period.  His lack of WR's with experience is a sorry situation, but he has an opportunity to earn a ton of fantasy points as his defense has taken a HUGE step backwards.  I have him at the very top of my "late" round guys.  

Allen will be facing some tough defenses as well, but his legs will make the difference.  I'm all about the mobile QB's.  He should be improved from last season and he has talent.  His running is just an extra bonus.  I own him as my QB2 in nearly every league.  I'm  expecting to use him as a spot starter here and there though.  

I don't like Carr at all.  Brown is a nutjob and his supporting cast isn't great.  Maybe in 2020?  They are at least a year off from having a legit passing game any defense needs to fear.  

In my most recent draft, Rodgers was the 3rd QB taken.  I'd pass on that.  lol  He is a guy I've grown to not trust.  If he falls, I'll take a chance, but his actual draft placement is WAY too high for his production.  People in fantasy land tend to live in the past.  

Rivers is a guy not getting much love in the draft.  With his weapons out wide, and the return of his TE, I love him as a steady QB1 who can easily finish in the top 5-8 overall if things fall correctly.  I've seen him slip well past this point in drafts though, which is why I mention him here.  I nabbed him in a redraft AFTER Winston was taken in one.  To me, that was insanity based only on weekly averages, but I also respect the guy being bold and taking a QB he feels will break out.  

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As you've seen, my 2nd tier of QBs is quite large... I actually don't recall a season having this big of a group in one tier. It speaks to why you can generally find good startable QB options later in your draft. I should also note that there isn't much separation going on in Tier2. While I have some slight preferences (Ryan, Winston) I would be OK with any of them as my starter.

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