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AintNoStoppinMeNow

The Fantastic Four: How Do You Rank Them?

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It's pretty much a consensus across the board who the big four are in fantasy football and a case could be made for any of them to go #1. If you're picking in the top four how do you rank them and why?

Saquon Barkley: Uber talented RB but the Giants are just bad. That didn't stop him last season but look at what happened to David Johnson last season also. Will the eventual switch to Daniel Jones help or hurt?

Christian McCaffery: An absolute pleasure to have him on my team last year but there was a difference in his stats between Cam being healthy and hurt. With Cam back to full health does that mean we see less CMC (especially near the goal line for those TD's Cam loves to run in)?

Alvin Kamara: Maybe the safest pick of the big four. Will he be used more this season with Ingram gone and Murray in his place? Can Brees keep it up?

Ezekiel Elliot: The biggest wildcard at the moment. To get a talent like Zeke at 4 (or later as the holdout progresses) would be amazing value. But are we headed for another Le'Veon Bell situation? 

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1. Kamara - he's in the best offense and does the most with his touches. He'll have to remain incredibly efficient, but he's shown he can do that.

2. Barkley - He's the anti Kamara argument to me. It'll be hard for him to be outside of the top 5 just based on volume, but I have zero confidence in the offense around him. With Beckham gone and a shell of a QB leading the offense, I've never seen 11 in the box but we might here. He'll need to maintain his high number of big plays to be as good as last year.

McCaffrey - The best pass catching back, and a great talent, but something keeps me from putting him inside my top 2. I have no problem with people having him at 1, or 2 but in my mocks I just can't seem to take him there.

4. Elliot - would be my number 1, but right now I'd even put DJ ahead of him. Last year he even added elite receiving back to his resume, as during the second half of the year he was on his way to over 100 targets.  Best pure runner in the NFL, adding 100 targets and positive TD regression coming. Of the four, he's the one I see as improving his stats from last year....well I did anyway

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Kamara easily at the top. He has proven to be a monster even with limited touches. He’s a no brainer stud in a great offense with a great QB.

The other 3, hot take here but I think all of them will fail to deliver on top 4 value. I’ll explain why. 
Saquon (aside from being the top pick and how top picks rarely live up to the hype) is looking at a stacked deck. The team will lean towards being unimpressive which will mean less opportunities, plays, drives etc. Yes, he overcame that last year, I just think it’s a big ask to expect lightning to strike twice under these specific circumstances. He has otherworldly talent and could easily prove me wrong, but I’ve played long enough to be skeptical of no.1 picks unless the situation is perfect.

CMC, this ones easy, he’s an obvious candidate to underplay his top 4 ranking. He was at his best last year after Cam tweaked his injury and basically couldn’t throw. Cam was also a top 4 QB before that time. When Cam is strong and healthy, he dominates the red zone himself and CMC while still good, is not used to the extent he was. Also they have even openly talked about working on his useage. I feel he’s a low RB1.

Zeke, without the holdout he’s the best pure runner in the NFL and the no.1 pick. With this holdout though he’s a hamstring risk if/when he returns and his diva attitude suggests to me once he gets paid he won’t play as hard (just a hunch). 

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TLDR:

PPR: Barkely, Kamara, CMC, Elliot

Standard: Elliot, Barkely, CMC, Kamara

 

Alright, I'm going to start this off with a quick stat check on Barkley.  

  ATT YDS AVG TD LNG REC TGTS YDS AVG TD LNG
REGULAR SEASON STATS 261 1,307 5 11 78 91 121 721 7.9 4 57
Take out 5 long play games     199 792 3.98 6 30 65 82 499 6.09 3 24

If you add in 5 avg games to this list - This nets out to 1100 rushing and 80 rec 650yds receiving. 

Comparing this to Elliot's 3 year avg: 

G Att Yard Avg TD Target Rec Yard Avg TD FPts FPts/G
13.33 289.33 1,349.33 4.63 9.33 57.67 45.00 399.67 9.67 2.00 242.90 18.17

So the floor tradeoff would be +200 rushing for -200 receiving and -35 rec

Kamara has a similar line over the past 2 years:

G Att Yard Avg TD Target Rec Yard Avg TD FPts FPts/G
15.5 157 805.5 5.35 11 103 81.5 767.5 9.45 4.5 250.3 16.2

So Kamara has very similar receiving numbers to Barkley but is behind on rushing yards.  Compared to Zeke, -500 rushing to +40 rec and 350 yrd.

Lastly, CMC. Taking out the 3 outlier games from last year leaves:

Att Yard Avg TD Target Rec Yard Avg TD FPts
173 835 4.39 6 85 70 576 8.39 5 14.79

Adding in 3 avg games leads to 1000 yrds rushing with 7 TDs, and 85 rec with 700 Yds receiving.  Which is almost exactly on par with Kamara but with less rushing TD.  

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Non ppr 

Kamara 

The Zeke. 

Barkley. 

The Chubb 

McCaffrey 

PPR   

Kamara

Mccaffery 

Barkely

The Zeke

The Chubb 

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21 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Kamara easily at the top. He has proven to be a monster even with limited touches. He’s a no brainer stud in a great offense with a great QB.

The other 3, hot take here but I think all of them will fail to deliver on top 4 value. I’ll explain why. 
Saquon (aside from being the top pick and how top picks rarely live up to the hype) is looking at a stacked deck. The team will lean towards being unimpressive which will mean less opportunities, plays, drives etc. Yes, he overcame that last year, I just think it’s a big ask to expect lightning to strike twice under these specific circumstances. He has otherworldly talent and could easily prove me wrong, but I’ve played long enough to be skeptical of no.1 picks unless the situation is perfect.

CMC, this ones easy, he’s an obvious candidate to underplay his top 4 ranking. He was at his best last year after Cam tweaked his injury and basically couldn’t throw. Cam was also a top 4 QB before that time. When Cam is strong and healthy, he dominates the red zone himself and CMC while still good, is not used to the extent he was. Also they have even openly talked about working on his useage. I feel he’s a low RB1.

Zeke, without the holdout he’s the best pure runner in the NFL and the no.1 pick. With this holdout though he’s a hamstring risk if/when he returns and his diva attitude suggests to me once he gets paid he won’t play as hard (just a hunch). 

I just landed the number 1 pick in my league, non ppr. Now I have to decide if Barkley really is worth the pick on a bad offense, or if the better offense wins out with Kamara or CMC. Barkley still beat out Cmc by 30 points in non ppr last year. I am even considering David Johnson, although for the sake of diversifying my different teams I should avoid him. 

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Kamara is going to get vultured a lot with Murray now there...more so than when Ingram was there.

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1. Barkley

2. Barkley

3.Barkley

4. The others...

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8 hours ago, jrokh said:

1. Barkley

2. Barkley

3.Barkley

4. The others...

I don't see how Barkley is overwhelmingly the 1 pick. On ffc other running backs are going ahead of him quite often. The one reason I may lean toward him in my league is 50 yard bonus tds. He should have a few of those. If it was ppr, I would agree it's definitely barkley. Non ppr, its really close.

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47 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I don't see how Barkley is overwhelmingly the 1 pick. On ffc other running backs are going ahead of him quite often. The one reason I may lean toward him in my league is 50 yard bonus tds. He should have a few of those. If it was ppr, I would agree it's definitely barkley. Non ppr, its really close.

You gotta do what you think is right, but the masses over at ffc is not where I would look for guidance. Besides he has a comfortable lead in non and ppr on their ADP page.

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I don’t see how Barkley isn’t the clear #1. Look what he did last year with zero NFL experience, with a totally ineffective Eli, bad Oline etc.  if anything Jones is probably an upgrade over Eli. Plus Jones looked pretty good in his one preseason drive.  Everyone staying how bad his situation is this year, but it can’t be worse than last year! Oh, and he’s clearly a generational talent at RB as well, in case you didn’t see him play yet..

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Albert Breer reporting the Panthers would like to find a back to take some of McCaffery's short yardage and goal line work. Was already worried about Cam back and healthy at the goal line so this news doesn't help any either. 

 

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CMC - puts up WR1 and RB1 numbers

DJ - new offense means more opportunity to include getting the ball in space where he shines

Kamara - explosive!!  He can get 25 FF points on 10 touches

Barkley -   No OBJ, more loaded boxes, bad offensive line

Zeke   -  his holdout is a major concern, often RB's get hurt when they finally get into camp and not in football shape.  

Melvin - same risk as Zeke, but probably more so as he is always nicked up anyway

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If you go top five, the Chubb would be in.  

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8 minutes ago, Maulers1973 said:

 

Barkley -   No OBJ, more loaded boxes, bad offensive line

The Giants O-line is Significantly better than last year, maybe the best line they have had in many years. Remmers and especially Zeitler are monumentally better than what they had on the right side last year, Will Hernandez is a year better, Solder is healthier. No OBJ is a legitimate argument, but stop with the bad line narrative...

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5 hours ago, jrokh said:

The Giants O-line is Significantly better than last year, maybe the best line they have had in many years. Remmers and especially Zeitler are monumentally better than what they had on the right side last year, Will Hernandez is a year better, Solder is healthier. No OBJ is a legitimate argument, but stop with the bad line narrative...

:thumbsup:  This.

The line has gone from being an area of weakness to being at least solid if not slightly above average.

This will help both Barkley and Eli.

I know there are a lot of Eli haters out there, but with the improved line last year, he quietly put up a pretty decent year.

yes, the top WR is gone, but the better line will help offset this somewhat.   They did bring in other WR, and I think when they actually play (ie. not missing time due to suspension/injury) the offense will be as good as they were last year.

 

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Last year I drafted a healthy David Johnson because he was highly ranked - ignoring that he was on a terrible team. Terrible mistake.  I see the same potential problems with Barkley.

  1. Zeek - if he is not holding out. will not draft him anticipating he will sign
  2. Kamara - when will Brees age catch up to him, impacting Kamara?  They fall off fast when they get to that point
  3. Chubb - Other than not knowing how much K.Hunt will play after week 10,  I would take Chubb #1 RB overall
  4. Barkley - Over rated because he is on a crappy team.  Will avoid because a terrible team and talk of changing QB
  5. McCaffrey - will not draft him unless Cam is 100%

 

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20 minutes ago, wild_and_crazy_guy said:

Last year I drafted a healthy David Johnson because he was highly ranked - ignoring that he was on a terrible team. Terrible mistake.  I see the same potential problems with Barkley.

  1. Zeek - if he is not holding out. will not draft him anticipating he will sign
  2. Kamara - when will Brees age catch up to him, impacting Kamara?  They fall off fast when they get to that point
  3. Chubb - Other than not knowing how much K.Hunt will play after week 10,  I would take Chubb #1 RB overall
  4. Barkley - Over rated because he is on a crappy team.  Will avoid because a terrible team and talk of changing QB
  5. McCaffrey - will not draft him unless Cam is 100%

 

Chubb over Barkley and McCaffery, well that is indeed bold. We have an open spot in a 12 team league, you interested? You can have the first pick...

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6 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Just like last year, and probably most years, two will disappoint. Who is it going to be? I didn't think it would happen last year, but it did. 

Perhaps, but I just looked at my league's 1st round from last year. There were 8rb's selected. The only one that busted was Lev Bell, and that doesn't really count. The other 7 all were all top 10-15 RB's. Gurley, DJ, Bell, Barkley, Zeke, Kamara, Gordon, Hunt. The first pick in rd 2 was CMC. The Top RB's are there for a reason...

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