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Canadianfan

Why is Godwin going so early?

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Posted (edited)

I see this guys going in the 5th round in mock drafts,  Howard going in the 4th and Evans in the 2nd.   How good is this Tampa Offense going to be. No other team has 3 WR/TE combinations going that early.   Am I missing something here?    Is Tampa going to be that explosive to support three first 5 fantasy round receivers?

 

not buying it...Ill take Geronimo Allison in the 8th over Goodwin. 

Edited by Mike FF Today
"Godwin"

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This is a very good question, based on the fact that Fitzpatrick was the Qb for eight games last season. 

And I would agree, I’ll take Allison over Godwin also. 

Winston has been a good ff Qb, but not that good imo. 

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Arians is gonna feed Godwin no doubt, his offenses have consistently proved to be able to sustain 2 fantasy  WR123 at same time.  Arians has talked him up and the kid has talent for sure... Allison over him is no slam dunk there.  Talent wise Geronimo isn’t close imo

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Bruce Arians #2 WR vs Matt Lafleurs #2 WR......hmmmm.  I think I will go with Godwin.  

Geranimo is a cool name, but nobody beats GODwin.

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I would agree with the other two posters that Godwin is the better talent. 

But I would rather have Allison as a late wr4 over Godwin as my wr2. 

I think teamed with Rodgers that could equal things out quite a bit.  

 

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6 hours ago, weepaws said:

I would agree with the other two posters that Godwin is the better talent. 

But I would rather have Allison as a late wr4 over Godwin as my wr2. 

I think teamed with Rodgers that could equal things out quite a bit.  

 

Fair enough 🤝

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God-Win is a good option but he might be overvalued some. The higher a guy goes, the more you are paying for things that haven’t happened yet. Always be wary of guys with a breakout baked into their adp. I like him as a WR3.

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I like his talent, but being drafted in the 5th round, the 3rd non QB buccaneer off the board, that's a little bold.......6-7th is a little more realistic.   Im not a believer in James,  unless he throws 40TDS I don't see how 3 Offensive players coming out of the first 5 rounds in Tampa Bay doesn't spell bust somewhere. 

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1 hour ago, Canadianfan said:

I like his talent, but being drafted in the 5th round, the 3rd non QB buccaneer off the board, that's a little bold.......6-7th is a little more realistic.   Im not a believer in James,  unless he throws 40TDS I don't see how 3 Offensive players coming out of the first 5 rounds in Tampa Bay doesn't spell bust somewhere. 

Last year, Tampa was the #1 passing offense and #3 in passing touchdowns.  With Koetter gone and Arians/Leftwich in, I expect the Bucs to be near that threshold again.  Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson are gone along with their 179 targets, 117 receptions, 1590 yards, and 9 TD's.  Breshad Perriman will only get a sniff of that.  O.J Howard will take a nice chunk, sure, but not as much as people may think.  Howard had 48 targets last year.  Let's say he doubles that to 96.  That brings the target share down to 131.  Give Perriman 40 and Evans another 25.  The RB's aren't going to see any real increase because none of them are really all that special of pass catchers.  Still leaves 70 targets.  Will Godwin get all of them?  No, but he could get half.  That'll put him up to 125 targets.  If his catch % goes up say 68% and his TD and y/r are the same as last year, that'll give him a 85/1215/9 season.  Is that something that would get a guy drafted in the 5th round?

Even if you want to be skeptical and don't think he could have that 3rd year breakout year and keeps with his 62% catch rate, the extra targets (at 125 instead of 95), would year a 78/1115/7 season.   That's 231 points and last year would have made him WR 16.  What round do you draft a top end WR2?

 

Winston is not a good QB, but he does have talent.  Talent plus opportunity (meaning: good coaching), has equaled production in the past.  Look at Jared Goff as a perfect example.  He was garbage until he got an HC who can maximize his strengths.  Why can't he throw 40 TDs?  Last year the Bucs threw 36.  Is 4 more that unrealistic?  The Bucs threw for over 5,100 yards.  If he throws for 4500, does he still need to throw 40 TD's, or would 35 suffice?  That's a decline from last year and yet, only 5 QB's threw for 4500 yards, 3 of which hit 35 TD.

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agreed Tampa.

The real problem with Winston is he throws too many INT's.

That wont affect the WR stats all that much.    The real risk is if he throws too many INT's he could get pulled.   

THAT  would affect the WR stats in a very significant way.

It is also likely the reason most WR's in that offense are undervalued somewhat.

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I wouldn't be scared off by a QB change.  The system is the system.  I'm not scared off by Blaine Gabbert.  Gabbert had a similar start that Alex Smith had... multiple HC's and OC's every year in his early career.  He had 2 HC's and OC's in his rookie season!  Got a new coach in his second, then a new one in his 3rd.  Then he goes to a new team (SF), then has 3 coaches (Harbaugh, Tomsula, and Kelly), in 3 different seasons.  He's now back with Arians and has a familiarity with the system.  Gabbert won't have the ceiling, but I he won't have the floor either.  If he had to come in, I think guys like Perriman, Brate, and Howard would suffer more than Evans, Godwin, and the RB's.

 

And honestly, how many Int's do you think it'll take to get him pulled?  Last year was an outlier based on the suspension, lack of off-season reps, and getting banged up.  For the most part, he's likely to be around 2.9% for the other 3 seasons.  If he throws the ball 600 times, that's about 18 Int's.  Eli Manning for his career throws 3.0% and he lasted how many seasons?  He had a 3.5% after 4 seasons, Winston's at 3.0%.  In the last 2 seasons, Winston's been around 64% completion percentage, Eli's career number is a 60%... in year's 2-9, he was just under 59%.

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system or no system experience..... I dont think gabbert will put up the stats that Winston will.    Less INT's for sure, but yardage totals just wont be there.

Winston isnt afraid to run and gun.   and honestly thats a far better trait to have in a QB if you are picking the WR's they are throwing to for your fantasy team.

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WInston throws too many ints.  This also means he's not accurate with the football and makes bad decisions.  It's a new system and he isn't the sharpest tool in the box.   I'm not buying the Godwin hype.   I'd maybe use him in a DFS lineup here or there, but I won't touch him in season long FF.   

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