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Pinesprings

David Johnson 2019

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I have had this guy since he was a rookie and kept him each year. I made the Super Bowl in 2016 and have donated in 2017 and 2018 due mostly to his lost season with the wrist in 2017 and down year in 2018.

This is a ppr 12 man league and everywhere I look and ask its Keep DJ over Davante Adams. I have planned on keeping Davante all along to minimize risk. We start 1qb 2rb 3wr/te. His offensive line is horrendous and I'm not totally sold on the ex Texas Tech coaches offense working in the nfl and kyler is no sure thing.

DJ is a great guy with a ton of talent but am I crazy to keep Davante? My first pick after either DJ or Davante would be 2:6.

Appreciate any insight. 

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You can’t blame him for 2018, you had a keeper that likely cost you a low pick and he was an RB1. Doesn’t Adams cost you a 2nd?

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Think like last season Adams will out score DJ. 

But D J should be a rb1 once again like he was last season, I would keep a rb1. 

Harder to find a replacement for a rb1. 

Not that it’s easy to find a replacement for a wr like Adams, but I’ve also thought WRs postion is deeper the farther into a draft one goes. 

Good luck with this decision 

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

You can’t blame him for 2018, you had a keeper that likely cost you a low pick and he was an RB1. Doesn’t Adams cost you a 2nd?

No sir....we are a strange league. You keep 1 player from the previous year. then straight draft from that point on. 

@weepaws so you would rather have DJ and Juju for example over Davante and James Conner for example

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Without hesitation would I take DJ and juju over the other two players. 

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How many carries do you guys expect from him in this offense?  And being behind in a lot of games?  Whats the range?

Murray will steal redzone TDs with his legs.  

That offense may flop in thr NFL.  Who knows.  

Just thinking out loud.

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1 hour ago, listen2me 23 said:

How many carries do you guys expect from him in this offense?  And being behind in a lot of games?  Whats the range?

Murray will steal redzone TDs with his legs.  

That offense may flop in thr NFL.  Who knows.  

Just thinking out loud.

I would expect 225 carries at a minimum. Probably closer to 250. The offense is such an unknown that it's hard to really predict. While I don't expect the team to run a lot, Johnson should get the vast majority considering the players behind him. 

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7 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

How many carries do you guys expect from him in this offense?  And being behind in a lot of games?  Whats the range?

Murray will steal redzone TDs with his legs.  

That offense may flop in thr NFL.  Who knows.  

Just thinking out loud.

All this is very true. I think we can use last season as a floor for DJ. That offense was historically bad and his useage was just as awful. Everything points to an uptick in both factors at least.

17 hours ago, Pinesprings said:

No sir....we are a strange league. You keep 1 player from the previous year. then straight draft from that point on. 

Ah, understood. Tough call then, I like both players.

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17 hours ago, Pinesprings said:

No sir....we are a strange league. You keep 1 player from the previous year. then straight draft from that point on. 

@weepaws so you would rather have DJ and Juju for example over Davante and James Conner for example

I know everyone has their preference, but I do not like the just keep anyone without value making any difference style of keeper. The point is to be able to keep someone from the previous year who was undervalued and profit from it the following year

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Just think of this as you having the 6th pick in draft.  Keepers being the forced first round.  If you had 6th pick would you take DJ or Adams? Do you like the WR in rounds 3-6 better than the RB from 3-6?  Whichever of the groups you like better 3-6 makes it more beneficial for you to take the opposite R1.  If you dont feel there is good enough RB value after R2, then maybe even take 2 RB right away.  This is all up to how you think teams will do this year.

TLDR: Adams is safer value, but RB are generally harder to come by.  Depends on how you value the mid round player pool.

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21 hours ago, Pinesprings said:

I have had this guy since he was a rookie and kept him each year. I made the Super Bowl in 2016 and have donated in 2017 and 2018 due mostly to his lost season with the wrist in 2017 and down year in 2018.

This is a ppr 12 man league and everywhere I look and ask its Keep DJ over Davante Adams. I have planned on keeping Davante all along to minimize risk. We start 1qb 2rb 3wr/te. His offensive line is horrendous and I'm not totally sold on the ex Texas Tech coaches offense working in the nfl and kyler is no sure thing.

DJ is a great guy with a ton of talent but am I crazy to keep Davante? My first pick after either DJ or Davante would be 2:6.

Appreciate any insight. 

it is worth noting I think the Cards line will be better than it has been recently.   

while I do not think it will be an area of strength, I dont think it will be as weak as it has been in the past.   New additions in Gilbert and Sweezy will certainly improve things a bit.

I also think scheme and the fact the team has a running QB will prevent teams from over committing to stop David Johnson in the run game because it could easily be a fake or a misdirection play under the new scheme.

this will make things better for the Cards, and will improve the effectiveness of both run and pass protection even if no changes were made from last year. 

as we do know some changes have been made anyhow, I conclude this wont be as much of an issue as it was last year.

Just my opinion.

Keep in mind, I'm not predicting this to be an area of strength.  I just dont think it will be such a glaring weakness as it was last year.

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He's going to have a great year.  The air raid offense will create tons of space for him to work with.  In PPR league he's going to be gold.

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I definitely agree he will have a better season than last year.

for me the only question is..... how much better?

I have him in one of my Keeper leagues.

The thing you need to remember:

Last year, he and Fitz were the only weapons on offense.

Now they have added a new weapon to the offense in Murray.

He provides an additional threat to run, as well as a different skillset that makes him harder to contain.

Last year teams were double covering Fitz and keying on David Johnson.   it really wasnt that hard, and the coach didnt have the creativity to get him space.

the new coach and the QB with the additional running ability will open things up for him.

I think he will do better provided he stays healthy.

while I do not predict he will do better than he did in his monster year, but I think we'd be foolish to say it cannot happen.   If Murray turns out to be better than Rosen throwing the ball (I think he will be) and he adds additional value with his threat to run..... this could be a very good thing for David Johnson.

Rationale: 

1) you cannot fully commit to stopping DJ when there is the possibility Murray fakes and runs the ball himself.   this will help DJ's efficiency.

2) a running QB also makes it easier to hit the checkdown player (Most times that checkdown guy is a RB or TE) because people are focused on stopping the QB scramble and lose track of the player they should be covering.

3) a running QB is harder to sack even if the line is crappy.   Teams who get burned by QB runs may focus on containing him in the pocket instead of sacking him.   This is better for the offense in general.   More first downs=more TD's and more fantasy points for all players on the team.

 

 

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I've done my rants on DJ in other topics, but I think he bounces back this year. I can keep DJ in the first or Adams in the second, I'm keeping DJ.

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Just think of running lanes that are opened with normal running qbs. It makes guys like Alfred Morris and Gus Edwards look better than they are. Add in Murray is the best passer out of lethal running qbs to probably come out of college, add in Dj being such a good receiving weapon, goooold

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Very good info and rationale from all of you. Sounds about 85% agree to keep DJ over Davante.

Then I sit down last night and watch the 2nd preseason....yes its only preseason game vs the lowly Raiders defense and David Johnson was a carbon copy if not worse than last year. Running right into the stack as i call it....a brick wall. Even had some minus runs. Broke off a 15 yarder but called for holding. Kyler was horrendous. 

Just not convinced yet on DJ. Davante every week was consistent. 17plus points or more each week. Im nervous on DJ.

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Last nights showing diffently makes it a much harder decision. 

 

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There isn't a bigger DJ fan than me but dang......very risky and want to minimize risk early in FFootball. bad football last night and i think the starters were in for at least a quarter.

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Yeah, I love DJ and his talent, but last night definitely has me reevaluating him. I don't think they were running their true offense, that oline looked terrible. I'll have to do some thinking on my Johnson in the first vs Adams in the second.

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On 8/13/2019 at 3:56 AM, Frozenbeernuts said:

I would expect 225 carries at a minimum. Probably closer to 250. The offense is such an unknown that it's hard to really predict. While I don't expect the team to run a lot, Johnson should get the vast majority considering the players behind him. 

I live in Phoenix, so we get tons of Cardinals stuff.  DJ won't come close to 250 carries.  Their defense is not good, meaning they will be trailing most games, and throwing.  Now, this enhances DJ's value in PPR leagues.  The problem you have is that Adams is a Top 3 WR and DJ MAY BE a top 5 RB.  But, he may not be, too.  Tough decision, my friend.

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18 minutes ago, FantasyRetard said:

I live in Phoenix, so we get tons of Cardinals stuff.  DJ won't come close to 250 carries.  Their defense is not good, meaning they will be trailing most games, and throwing.  Now, this enhances DJ's value in PPR leagues.  The problem you have is that Adams is a Top 3 WR and DJ MAY BE a top 5 RB.  But, he may not be, too.  Tough decision, my friend.

The lowest carry total for a team last year was 333, which was green Bay. AZ was 5th least with 355. Johnson had 258 carries last year. Even though the game was rough last night, I expect the offense to be a big upgrade from last year. I can see Johnson getting 250 carries pretty easily. Teams still have to run, and AZ is trying to run in the preseason

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On 8/12/2019 at 6:45 PM, weepaws said:

 

 

WTH??  I didn't intend to quote on this.  Anyway, it's preseason Week 2.  I'm surprised he even played.  This means nothing to me.   

I'm expecting DJ to rank in the top 5 in rushing yards, in the top 15 (all positions) in receptions and rec yards, and score 14-18 TD's.  Tell me what other RB you expect that out of that would be drafted in the 5 spot or lower?

 

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I don’t have the same expectations about DJ upcoming season has you. 

Plus it’s not a draft for just Rbs, I think their our WRs that would be worthy of that fifth spot. 

Simply put, he’s not worth a top five draft pick. 

Not talking about rb rankings only, talking about a top five over all draft pick. 

And before last night and now even more after last night I’ll say he’s not worth that spot. 

But he’s worth a round one pick based on him being a rb1.  

I’m happy for you that you think he’s worth a top five over all draft pick, I have no problem with that nor do I have a problem with your own expectations about his up and coming season, good luck with it. 

Thanks. 

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1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

The lowest carry total for a team last year was 333, which was green Bay. AZ was 5th least with 355. Johnson had 258 carries last year. Even though the game was rough last night, I expect the offense to be a big upgrade from last year. I can see Johnson getting 250 carries pretty easily. Teams still have to run, and AZ is trying to run in the preseason

It's going to be very difficult to run behind that poor offensive line.  We'll see, but the talent of this team is so devoid of solid players that I fully expect them to be trailing in most games and with Kingsberry, throwing a lot to try and score.  Also, I'm hearing that last year's draft pick Chase Edmonds could see more play time this year.

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8 minutes ago, FantasyRetard said:

It's going to be very difficult to run behind that poor offensive line.  We'll see, but the talent of this team is so devoid of solid players that I fully expect them to be trailing in most games and with Kingsberry, throwing a lot to try and score.  Also, I'm hearing that last year's draft pick Chase Edmonds could see more play time this year.

Chase edmonds will get some work of course, but he isn't anywhere near David Johnsons level

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3 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Chase edmonds will get some work of course, but he isn't anywhere near David Johnsons level

I'm not worried about Edmonds. My concern is the offensive line. I didn't think that it could get any worse than last year, but I'm not so sure about that now. They have been horrendous so far.

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i can't afford a bust with a keeper. Im sticking with Davante at this point to start my team. 1qb 2rb 3wr/te.

not worth the risk. DJ is simply on a bad team.

 

Don't be surprised if SBarkley doesn't come off the top of the mountain either this year. horrendous offensive team

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21 minutes ago, Pinesprings said:

 

 

Don't be surprised if SBarkley doesn't come off the top of the mountain either this year. horrendous offensive team

In 3 out of the 4 games they played last year without OBJ, the Giants scored 40, 27, and 35 points. The game they struggled was played in monsoon conditions. I'm not saying they will be gangbusters, but calling them a "horrendous offensive team" is a case where the narrative doesn't match the facts...

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i'm drafting 6th in .5 ppr and i plan on going wr over him even if he's there.  i want safe with my first rounder with league winning upside.  johnson could be a league winner but doesn't feel safe enough for a top 6 pick.  hopkins and adams have proven to perform even with suboptimal qb play.  if murray has a rough go or gets injured johnson is toast imo.

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10 hours ago, American Chewy said:

i'm drafting 6th in .5 ppr and i plan on going wr over him even if he's there.  i want safe with my first rounder with league winning upside.  johnson could be a league winner but doesn't feel safe enough for a top 6 pick.  hopkins and adams have proven to perform even with suboptimal qb play.  if murray has a rough go or gets injured johnson is toast imo.

totally agree. 

 

13 hours ago, jrokh said:

In 3 out of the 4 games they played last year without OBJ, the Giants scored 40, 27, and 35 points. The game they struggled was played in monsoon conditions. I'm not saying they will be gangbusters, but calling them a "horrendous offensive team" is a case where the narrative doesn't match the facts...

Fair enough. remember though that was Last year.....D Jones as a rookie gets in the game and it could be a similar situation of Rosen and David Johnson last year. Everyone focus on Saquon. WRs in NYG are either hurt or suspended too. Not promising in my opinion. Even with ELI

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30 minutes ago, Pinesprings said:

totally agree. 

 

Fair enough. remember though that was Last year.....D Jones as a rookie gets in the game and it could be a similar situation of Rosen and David Johnson last year. Everyone focus on Saquon. WRs in NYG are either hurt or suspended too. Not promising in my opinion. Even with ELI

Bringing it back to DJ, the biggest problem last year was the OL, so far it looks even worse. That is what concerns me. The Giants O-line is much improved on paper and have shown it so far in preseason. Sterling Shepherd will be ready week 1. I wouldn't worry about Barkley, but of course you are free to do so.

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Eeeeeeeeeewwww, aaaahhhh.   Bad play.    It's preseason.   When they roll out the Ferrari offense at the start of the regular season, and you see the production, you guys that pass on DJ at 4-8 will be cursing yourselves.    lol    

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