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envoy9

Where does Antonio Brown become value vs. risk?

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This guy is throwing up so many warning signs (new team, inferior QB, weaker team, frostbite?, crazy helmet issues) that I just frankly don't know what to think about this.  Generally I plan to let him drop and have some other guy spend a high draft pick on him.  However, the question is, how far does he fall before the risk turns into value?  Clearly he is not a 1st round guy anymore.  My gut tells me he will be taken in the 2nd round in most leagues, even with all this craziness- and I will pass on that.

Is he value in the 3rd or late 3rd?  I have to assume that he is a must draft in the 4th if he falls that far.  I would be interested in what people think on this one.

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at fantasyfootballcalculator it appears that he's going around the beginning of the 3rd right now.

for me that almost certainly means I won't end up with him.  my general feel is that i want to have 2 rb's and a wr1 already on my roster before I am willing to gamble on AB.

I think there is a great chance he has a terrible season and possibly quits on the team at some point.  not only the warning signs you mention, but remember how bad amari cooper was in oakland?  for me I think it's a nope

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If I can get him in the third round, and I already have two Rbs, I’m taking him. 

 

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The real question is - what do you feel AB's value in Oakland truly is?  Even if he plays the whole season, there is reasonable evidence with Carr as QB of how WR perform.  Take 2016-2018, there has been 1 year where any WR got over 1000 yds - and that year saw both Cooper and Crabtree do it, barely.  Looking at targets, OAK has an avg of 530 targets/year throwing to WR with 55% of those targets.  So there is 275 targets to share for WR, MAX 350 over the past 5 years with Carr.  If you assume AB's ceiling is to get half the targets, that's 135 targets [max 175].  Which with Oak in past seasons equates to about 1100 yards and 6 TDs [max 1400 yds and 10 Td] .  So if you believe  that Oak will honor AB and throw to him, his value is right around WR2 with WR1 upside.  So when would WR that have that stat line without the risk be gone - well usually mid round 3.  Cooper, Diggs, Thielen are around the same tier but with 'less' risk.  So the value would begin after that.

TLDR Late round 3, after the similar WR are gone.

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I don't like him as a stud WR 1, but I think has a relatively high floor for a WR being drafted as a back end WR 1. He has two things working for him.

1. He'll complain about not getting enough targets and the ball.

2. Oakland has invested a lot into him and will likely force feed him. 

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He starts to be a good value that’s hard to pass up around the late 3rd. It’s very simple, just rank your wrs and if he’s at the top of the list and you don’t like the players at the other positions, take him.

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25 minutes ago, Brutal Brutus said:

I don't like him as a stud WR 1, but I think has a relatively high floor for a WR being drafted as a back end WR 1. He has two things working for him.

1. He'll complain about not getting enough targets and the ball.

2. Oakland has invested a lot into him and will likely force feed him. 

i disagree about the high floor.  He EASILY could quit on the team.  He has a history of doing just that, and his offseason antics this year have made me wonder if he even WANTS to play

 

JMHO

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10 minutes ago, cavern said:

i disagree about the high floor.  He EASILY could quit on the team.  He has a history of doing just that, and his offseason antics this year have made me wonder if he even WANTS to play

 

JMHO

Disagree, I think as long as he is healthy he will play.  His on field production hasn't been in question ever.  It's just now he has a new QB, new team.

 

Do you trust Derek Carr and Gruden is probably the better question?  I think he puts up WR1 numbers.  Somewhere in the 7-11 range.

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Let's ask it a different way. AB is going around the same time as these guys. Which WR would you take?

 

Antonio Brown

Mike Evans

TY Hilton

Thielen

K Allen

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I would take all but Hilton over AB.  

Im not so sure about A Luck going into this season. 

 

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47 minutes ago, kobe808lak said:

Disagree, I think as long as he is healthy he will play.  His on field production hasn't been in question ever.  It's just now he has a new QB, new team.

 

Do you trust Derek Carr and Gruden is probably the better question?  I think he puts up WR1 numbers.  Somewhere in the 7-11 range.

week 17 last year his on field production was in question.

just a couple of days ago, he threatened to not play this season.

you are welcome to simply assume that AB will play 16 weeks this season.  i will not be making such assumptions personally

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I've knocked him down a few spots in the rankings from where he was last year, but I still think he will be a #1 WR.

I do think the risks make it hard to value him as an elite (top 5) Receiver anymore.

I havnt done my WR rankings yet, but if I were to make a quick guess, I'd say if someone gave me a ranking list where he was ranked between #8 and #12 on the WR list, I'd say you are probably in the ballpark of where you need to be.

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I don't think I want to draft him before the 5th round. Maybe mid to late 4th. There's just way too many warning flags for me to want to rely on him as a guy that will carry my team. His attitude is terrible, he's getting older, he's missed time with injuries. I think I would take all of Evans, Hilton, Thielen, and Allen ahead of him.

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People are in a full-blown panic about AB right now. This is when I'm watching real close for the buy-low window. I'm testing the waters on trades, tracking closely in auctions.

There's obvious risk here. But a lot of this is pre-season media chatter, and there's still some big upside especially for PPR.

Personally I'm seeing a buyers market on AB... if the price is right.

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13 hours ago, GreatGray said:

People are in a full-blown panic about AB right now. This is when I'm watching real close for the buy-low window. I'm testing the waters on trades, tracking closely in auctions.

There's obvious risk here. But a lot of this is pre-season media chatter, and there's still some big upside especially for PPR.

Personally I'm seeing a buyers market on AB... if the price is right.

this is a good way to look at it as well.  part of me thinks "here's a guy that doesn't want to play any more" and another part of me thinks "here's a guy that is just conning his way out of as much preseason action as possible"

he's one of those that thinks preseason is silly.  of course - he might NEED preseason given he is with a new team, just don't tell him that.

if he drops enough.  i'll gamble

 

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I probably wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or even fifth round. Just seems like too much risk of a total flameout. Even if that doesn’t happen new lesser team with lesser QB who he hasn’t built any rapport with, and he’s getting a little old. So many negatives 

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I am more concerned about AB's feet then anything else. If he is full go before the draft, he is a top ten receiver for me. When has he ever quit on his team? Since 2011 he has missed a grand total of seven games, Seven! He is one of the greatest of all time, and he's not even that old. Fade at your own risk...

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

I am more concerned about AB's feet then anything else. If he is full go before the draft, he is a top ten receiver for me. When has he ever quit on his team? Since 2011 he has missed a grand total of seven games, Seven! He is one of the greatest of all time, and he's not even that old. Fade at your own risk...

Last year, in the lead up to week 17.  he quit on his team.

It's why he didn't play week 17.  because he walked out on his team during the lead up to that game.

Playoffs were on the line.  Maybe you didn't know or forgot, but it's literally the most recent thing he did in the NFL prior to supposedly finally reporting to the Raiders today

 

  • Haha 1

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Yeah, I remember. That was after a decade of being a warrior and didn't impact 95% of fantasy leagues. I'm not suggesting he doesn't come with risk, but if he's healthy and he's there in round 3 I'm grabbing him over Adam Thielien. You want to pass be my guest...

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agree to disagree of course.  i just thought the "when has he ever quit on his team" was a bit odd considering he JUST DID (and he has already threatened to do the same to raiders)

 

good luck

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Expect for Hilton I would take all those other WRs over Brown. 

Carr isn’t Big Ben, so his production could drop just from having a less quality Qb. 

But I would without question take Thielen over AB. 

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12 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Expect for Hilton I would take all those other WRs over Brown. 

Carr isn’t Big Ben, so his production could drop just from having a less quality Qb. 

But I would without question take Thielen over AB. 

not only is Carr not Big Ben - but Amari Cooper was pretty awful with Carr and took almost no time becoming a stud with the Cowboys.

i am going to likely invest in josh jacobs in a dynasty, i really NEED Brown to play well, etc.  but i'm obviously very nervous

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I think AB is a lot better player then Cooper, but I get the point. 

Thanks. 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Carr isn’t Big Ben, so his production could drop just from having a less quality Qb. 

not only could it drop.   it most likely will drop.

This is the main reason I predict the drop.    

There will also be a drop in TD's just simply because hes on a weaker team.

for me the only question is how large will the dropoff actually be.

I am assuming his health issues and holdout potential (helmet issue) will resolve itself.   I'm guessing on my list he will be ranked around #10 on the WR board for me.

if the health issues are still affecting him at the time I draft, I may drop him some more.

That being said, he still has a high ceiling but now has a much lower floor to his potential production.  I'm currently rating him as a low end WR1, but It really wouldnt surprise me if he finishes the year off as a WR2 instead of the WR1 he is currently being drafted at in many leagues.

For that reason, there is a lot of risk with this guy.  both on and off the field.

honestly the more I think about it, the less I like him.

 

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20 hours ago, Ehlana said:

I don't think I want to draft him before the 5th round. Maybe mid to late 4th. There's just way too many warning flags for me to want to rely on him as a guy that will carry my team. His attitude is terrible, he's getting older, he's missed time with injuries. I think I would take all of Evans, Hilton, Thielen, and Allen ahead of him.

Evans and Allen over him.

Theilen probably.

I'm taking AB over Hilton who carries tons of risk himself with Luck's health in jeopardy yet again.  And he is always boom or bust anyways.  

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I am loving this media making him drop. If Carr can support a Crabtree I think Brown can perform as well. 

 

He's always been a jerk that can play

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3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

not only could it drop.   it most likely will drop.

This is the main reason I predict the drop.    

There will also be a drop in TD's just simply because hes on a weaker team.

for me the only question is how large will the dropoff actually be.

I am assuming his health issues and holdout potential (helmet issue) will resolve itself.   I'm guessing on my list he will be ranked around #10 on the WR board for me.

if the health issues are still affecting him at the time I draft, I may drop him some more.

That being said, he still has a high ceiling but now has a much lower floor to his potential production.  I'm currently rating him as a low end WR1, but It really wouldnt surprise me if he finishes the year off as a WR2 instead of the WR1 he is currently being drafted at in many leagues.

For that reason, there is a lot of risk with this guy.  both on and off the field.

honestly the more I think about it, the less I like him.

 

Agreed. 

Great post thanks. 

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Carr is no Big Ben, but I don’t think anyone is concern that Carr can’t feed Brown enough passes to him a wr1. 

I think the biggest concern is Brown himself imo. 

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15 hours ago, weepaws said:

Carr is no Big Ben, but I don’t think anyone is concern that Carr can’t feed Brown enough passes to him a wr1. 

I think the biggest concern is Brown himself imo. 

the two are related.  If Carr is missing him, either throwing bad passes or choosing to go elsewhere with the ball, then Brown COULD start to be a problem.

but - YES - the bigger issue is Brown - just pointing out that dissatisfaction with Carr could be a trigger

IMO 2 things need to be happening for AB to perform at or near the top of the WR list.  He needs to be HEAVILY targeted with good throws AND the Raiders need to be at least somewhat successful.  if either of those 2 things aren't happening, there is a good probability that AB will start to be a problem.  Maybe not quit on the team (but that is possible too) - but you'll hear him bitching on Twitter, you'll hear about him missing or being late to meetings, etc, etc.  Can he still perform as a low end wr1 or a wr2 if that crap is going on?  possibly but not definitely

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Great point Ray, I think they the Raiders will force feed AB knowing keeping him interested. 

That will help AB stats, but hurt the team and Carr. 

I think they the Raiders put themselves in this cat box and now need to feed it lol.  

 

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The Raiders offense was not so bad the first 4 or 5 games last year, at least statistically. I am a Raider fan and was excited to see Lynch running hard, his presence help open things up for Cooper and J.Cook. There were some good solid fantasy games at the beginning for those two. However, after Lynch was injured, Cooper was traded, and with only one win it seemed they lost any spirit that existed at the beginning of the season. Plus Carr's buddy K.Mack was traded at the beginning of the season as well.  They were just awful pretty much the rest of the season. 

That leaves this season.They must get better production out of Kolton Miller, they are leaving him at left tackle, if he fails again Gruden must move Trent Brown over there. 

I like Jacobs in the system. Obviously no Lynch, but hopefully an upgrade from Jalen and Martin.

To be honest I am not even 50 percent in on Gruden. He seems more of a celerity head coach. 

Bottom line, I like that AB is so conceded that he will be giving max effort, just to keep up with JuJu's stats.

The Raiders will be playing from behind all season. I see lots of receptions in the second half of games for AB. I could see him easily getting 90+ receptions. 

I just do not see heavy TD production. No way do I see 10.

That leaves yardage. I would say easily 1000. But not 1400.

 I seem him as a #2 fantasy WR this year. With 10 percent chance of everything falling right and producing #1 numbers again. 

Just some thoughts

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