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LoOnAtIk

Bust that you will not draft no matter what.

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My nominees are Kerryon Johnson and Chris Godwin. Both of their ADPs are too high in my opinion. Godwin is talented but a lot of mouths to feed in TB and a below average QB (IMO) throwing the ball. Kerryon also very talented but he’s on a team that notoriously NEVER runs the ball and to think CJA will not cut into his touches seems foolish to me. 

 

No thanks on both. 

 

Any players you guys have as DND because of the bust potential? I know AB is a popular selection.

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43 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

My nominees are Kerryon Johnson and Chris Godwin. Both of their ADPs are too high in my opinion. Godwin is talented but a lot of mouths to feed in TB and a below average QB (IMO) throwing the ball. Kerryon also very talented but he’s on a team that notoriously NEVER runs the ball and to think CJA will not cut into his touches seems foolish to me. 

 

No thanks on both. 

 

Any players you guys have as DND because of the bust potential? I know AB is a popular selection.

If AB is available in round 3-4 I’d draft him. 

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1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Dalvin Cook and Kerryon Johnson are two of mine for sure. 

I think Cook bounces back. Thielen and Diggs drop in stats this year. 

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12 minutes ago, JediMaster said:

I think Cook bounces back. Thielen and Diggs drop in stats this year. 

Dalvin Cook is just a big pile of meh for me. I don't want any part of him. He is hurt often and just doesn't provide much upside. A very inconsistent player. Why he is going so far before Chris Carson I don't understand

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37 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Dalvin Cook is just a big pile of meh for me. I don't want any part of him. He is hurt often and just doesn't provide much upside. A very inconsistent player. Why he is going so far before Chris Carson I don't understand

He has missed a lot of games in the NFL but I wouldn't consider him injury prone (yet). He had his ACL injury which of course is going to knock him out for numerous games. Then they gave him too much too soon. The hamstring injury is a direct result of the ACL and the mismanagement of his recovery. I'm willing to give the guy a chance since he led the league in rushing before the ACL injury.

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AB is at the top of my list.

Any Redskins player.

Any Bills player.

Any Dolphins player.

Carlos Hyde

 

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There is no player of value that I wouldn't draft if they fall far enough, but guys I would avoid anywhere near their ADP are: Dante Pettis- don't get why he is considered a sleeper. Aaron Rodgers, give me Baker in that range. Zach Ertz- Like him, but Goeddert will steal too many looks to take him at his price. Tevin Coleman- are we sure he is even the #1 in SF. Damien Williams. The season where he gets 250+ touches will be his first.

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I don't get the logic of "will not draft no matter what." I'll draft anyone, if the price is right. Does that mean there will be some players that I won't likely get because most value them more than me? Sure. But if they fell to where I'd value them, I'd pick them. I picked Ray Lewis for years and I hate that guy!

Now, for the thought that the Lions "NEVER run the ball," did you not watch last season? Do you not know Patricia is the HC?

Also, if you think Winston is below average, you don't know what the meaning of average is. He might be average, he might even be above average, but he certainly isn't below average. He is an above average ass for sure!

 

 

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12 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

My nominees are Kerryon Johnson and Chris Godwin. Both of their ADPs are too high in my opinion. Godwin is talented but a lot of mouths to feed in TB and a below average QB (IMO) throwing the ball. Kerryon also very talented but he’s on a team that notoriously NEVER runs the ball and to think CJA will not cut into his touches seems foolish to me. 

 

No thanks on both. 

 

Any players you guys have as DND because of the bust potential? I know AB is a popular selection.

With respect to Godwin, I don't discount the fact that he could be a bust, but the reasoning that you lay out seems rather implausible.

  • "...a lot of mouths to feed" - The Bucs actually have LESS mouths than last year.  Both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are gone and they were only replaced by Breshad Perriman.
    • Jackson and Humphries accounted for 179 targets.  The Bucs threw the ball 625 times.  If you think Tampa's defense is going to be that much better than last year, let's say they throw the ball 575 times this year.  OJ Howard saw only 48 targets.  Let's bump him up to 90.  So of the 179 targets that left, we eliminated 50 from the overall total and bumped Howard up 40, leaving about 90 targets unaccounted for.  Who's getting them?  With more mouths to feed and less available targets, Godwin saw 95 targets last year.  I don't see how an argument can be made for anything less than a 20-30 target INCREASE.
  • "...below average QB" - I think virtually everyone here has the same opinion as you about Winston being below average.  That said, you're reasoning seems flawed if you're going by "throwing the ball".  Winston's completion percentage went up every year.  His yards per attempt over the last 2 years is 7.9.  Yes, he throw's INT's, no one is going to debate that.  But if the Bucs throw the ball 575 times and Winston doesn't improve on the 64.6% and 7.9 ypa, he's going to throw for 4500 yards.  If his TD% is his career average at 4.6%, that's 27 TD's.  Technically, with a significantly better coach and system, you'd have to think that Winston, after 4 years of improvement, will totally collapse.  To me, that's highly unlikely.
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2 hours ago, Brutal Brutus said:

Fournette. It's a good thing he's always injured, otherwise people might focus on his ineffectiveness when healthy.

This is what I was coming here to say roughly. 

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Staying far away from Damien Williams. Only carried the ball more than 20 times once in his entire career. Toughest SOS against the run this year. 

So many safer options around his ADP. Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Devonta Freeman, etc.

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not sure i understand the hesitance on kerryon johnson

 

jim bob cooter isnt in place anymore...its a different offense....and they added a talented TE that can also block.....

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13 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

With respect to Godwin, I don't discount the fact that he could be a bust, but the reasoning that you lay out seems rather implausible.

  • "...a lot of mouths to feed" - The Bucs actually have LESS mouths than last year.  Both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are gone and they were only replaced by Breshad Perriman.
    • Jackson and Humphries accounted for 179 targets.  The Bucs threw the ball 625 times.  If you think Tampa's defense is going to be that much better than last year, let's say they throw the ball 575 times this year.  OJ Howard saw only 48 targets.  Let's bump him up to 90.  So of the 179 targets that left, we eliminated 50 from the overall total and bumped Howard up 40, leaving about 90 targets unaccounted for.  Who's getting them?  With more mouths to feed and less available targets, Godwin saw 95 targets last year.  I don't see how an argument can be made for anything less than a 20-30 target INCREASE.
  • "...below average QB" - I think virtually everyone here has the same opinion as you about Winston being below average.  That said, you're reasoning seems flawed if you're going by "throwing the ball".  Winston's completion percentage went up every year.  His yards per attempt over the last 2 years is 7.9.  Yes, he throw's INT's, no one is going to debate that.  But if the Bucs throw the ball 575 times and Winston doesn't improve on the 64.6% and 7.9 ypa, he's going to throw for 4500 yards.  If his TD% is his career average at 4.6%, that's 27 TD's.  Technically, with a significantly better coach and system, you'd have to think that Winston, after 4 years of improvement, will totally collapse.  To me, that's highly unlikely.

Rather implausible?

4 years of improvement?

i would consider being benched for Fitzpatrick a total collapse so for you to say it’s unlikely I say to you it’s already happened.

Winston loves Brate, pair that with Howard and Evans and that’s crowded enough for me to be concerned. 

Also you have to think they don’t want to throw that much and establish some kind of run game. How many games did the Bucs win last year? Right. So to expect more of the same seems really silly. I like Godwin as a sleeper but not as a breakout candidate where his current ADP suggests.

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10 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Rather implausible?

4 years of improvement?

i would consider being benched for Fitzpatrick a total collapse so for you to say it’s unlikely I say to you it’s already happened.

Winston loves Brate, pair that with Howard and Evans and that’s crowded enough for me to be concerned. 

Also you have to think they don’t want to throw that much and establish some kind of run game. How many games did the Bucs win last year? Right. So to expect more of the same seems really silly. I like Godwin as a sleeper but not as a breakout candidate where his current ADP suggests.

You're very much looking at that situation like someone who just doesn't like Winston as a person and will look for any reason to attack him... or are getting your info from someone like that.  Winston had a very limited off-season due to the suspension  When he finally got in, yeah, he was rusty.  In his first 4 games he threw 10 interceptions... which is apparently the only time frame you want to look at.  You evidently want to ignore the last 7 games in which he threw for over 1800 yards, completed over 64% of his passes, had 13 TD's and only 4 Int's.  To note, in one of those games, he only played the last quarter and a half after Fitzpatrick got benched.  Pro-rate that 6.5 games to 16 and you have about 4400 yards, 32 TD's, and 10 Int's.

Yes, Winston loved Brate, and paired with Howard and Evans, that's 3 solid options... options that were there last year as well as Humphries and DeSean Jackson.  Simply, last year was more crowed than this year, and yet Godwin still got 95 targets.  Brate's targets went down with the additions of Howard and Godwin, because those 2 are better players.

If you've actually paid any attention to anything in Tampa, it's obvious to everyone that Evans is passing option #1 and Godwin is passing option #2.  The most likely target share that comes from this season, based on 575 attempts (a drop of 50 from last year), is 160 for Evans, 135 for Godwin, 95 for Howard, 60 for Brate, 40 for Perriman, the RB's about 50 combined, and the other receivers about 35 combined.  Honestly, take a look at the Bucs' depth chart and tell me why this target share is so out of whack.  Keep in mind also that the Bucs were perfectly content with parting from DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries (179 combined targets last year), and only adding a nobody like Breshad Perriman (in 37 career games, he has 127 targets - last year, Humphries had 105 - think about that for a second).  Why do you think that was?  It was because they intend to increase and expand Godwin's role.

The thing is, after these 5 guys (Evans, Godwin, Howard, Brate, and Perriman), there's no other real pass catchers on that team.   It's crap du jour.

The Bucs had one of the absolute worst defenses in the NFL last year, which is big factor in why they had to throw so much.  That's also a big part of why Winston (and even Fitzpatrick), have thrown so many interceptions.  Just because they want to throw more, being able to and having the opportunity to are two entirely different things.  Barber is a mediocre RB, at best.  Had Jones been a 4th or 5th round pick last year, he would have been cut back in March.  This team will have to throw the ball and as luck would have it, that's what Arians is best at.

A sleeper?  He started 5 games last year and ranked 25th among WR's in PPR leagues.  I don't think you can say that a 2018 6th round value would be a sleeper in 2019, especially when he's going into his 3rd year AND he's getting his role expanded.

Now, if you're going to tell me that you think he's overrated as a talent/player, then that's fine and an acceptable opinion.  But if it's because of the situation and team around him... no, that's not going to fly.  His situation and team around him this year is much more beneficial to him this year than last year.

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On 8/19/2019 at 10:17 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

With respect to Godwin, I don't discount the fact that he could be a bust, but the reasoning that you lay out seems rather implausible.

  • "...a lot of mouths to feed" - The Bucs actually have LESS mouths than last year.  Both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are gone and they were only replaced by Breshad Perriman.
    • Jackson and Humphries accounted for 179 targets.  The Bucs threw the ball 625 times.  If you think Tampa's defense is going to be that much better than last year, let's say they throw the ball 575 times this year.  OJ Howard saw only 48 targets.  Let's bump him up to 90.  So of the 179 targets that left, we eliminated 50 from the overall total and bumped Howard up 40, leaving about 90 targets unaccounted for.  Who's getting them?  With more mouths to feed and less available targets, Godwin saw 95 targets last year.  I don't see how an argument can be made for anything less than a 20-30 target INCREASE.
  • "...below average QB" - I think virtually everyone here has the same opinion as you about Winston being below average.  That said, you're reasoning seems flawed if you're going by "throwing the ball".  Winston's completion percentage went up every year.  His yards per attempt over the last 2 years is 7.9.  Yes, he throw's INT's, no one is going to debate that.  But if the Bucs throw the ball 575 times and Winston doesn't improve on the 64.6% and 7.9 ypa, he's going to throw for 4500 yards.  If his TD% is his career average at 4.6%, that's 27 TD's.  Technically, with a significantly better coach and system, you'd have to think that Winston, after 4 years of improvement, will totally collapse.  To me, that's highly unlikely.

Nice breakdown.  Thanks.

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Kyler Murray.  Let's see what he's got on the NFL level this year, but no way I'm using a draft pick on him now. 

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AB is my top guy for not drafting.  L. Bell is a close second.  Both because of where they are being drafted.  I may miss the boat on AB, especially if the Raiders are forced to throw a lot from behind, but I cannot stomach wondering whether a guy will even play or not.  He's just a basketcase. 

 

I'm not sold on several people this year, but would take a chance on anyone if they fell enough.  I think D. Williams is being seriously overdrafted.  Too many rookie players taking him super early.  They are doing so based on a few games out of an entire career.  That's how you lose at fantasy football.  A person who has been around a while will look for that kind of production in the late rounds, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, but they are too smart to spend a 3rd round pick on a guy with almost zero production under his belt and who has competition for the job. 

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On ‎8‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 11:17 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

With respect to Godwin, I don't discount the fact that he could be a bust, but the reasoning that you lay out seems rather implausible.

  • "...a lot of mouths to feed" - The Bucs actually have LESS mouths than last year.  Both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are gone and they were only replaced by Breshad Perriman.
    • Jackson and Humphries accounted for 179 targets.  The Bucs threw the ball 625 times.  If you think Tampa's defense is going to be that much better than last year, let's say they throw the ball 575 times this year.  OJ Howard saw only 48 targets.  Let's bump him up to 90.  So of the 179 targets that left, we eliminated 50 from the overall total and bumped Howard up 40, leaving about 90 targets unaccounted for.  Who's getting them?  With more mouths to feed and less available targets, Godwin saw 95 targets last year.  I don't see how an argument can be made for anything less than a 20-30 target INCREASE.
  • "...below average QB" - I think virtually everyone here has the same opinion as you about Winston being below average.  That said, you're reasoning seems flawed if you're going by "throwing the ball".  Winston's completion percentage went up every year.  His yards per attempt over the last 2 years is 7.9.  Yes, he throw's INT's, no one is going to debate that.  But if the Bucs throw the ball 575 times and Winston doesn't improve on the 64.6% and 7.9 ypa, he's going to throw for 4500 yards.  If his TD% is his career average at 4.6%, that's 27 TD's.  Technically, with a significantly better coach and system, you'd have to think that Winston, after 4 years of improvement, will totally collapse.  To me, that's highly unlikely.

Winston is probably the most popular late round QB target.  Everyone seems to be waiting longer this year and the draft room all grumbles when he's finally drafted.  He was the pick many had been waiting on.  It will drive up his position in a real draft. 

I do not think OJ's targets will almost double this season.  They will definitely go up as he had some nagging injuries last season, but Arians is not known to target the TE position often.  He has WR's to catch the ball in Tampa.  Provided they remain healthy, I don't see OJ doing nearly what the talking heads think.  He will always be one of my favorite TE's, but also very likely to be talked about as having unrealized potential a few years from now.  He's just in the wrong offense to take the major leap people are expecting. 

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54 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Winston is probably the most popular late round QB target.  Everyone seems to be waiting longer this year and the draft room all grumbles when he's finally drafted.  He was the pick many had been waiting on.  It will drive up his position in a real draft. 

I do not think OJ's targets will almost double this season.  They will definitely go up as he had some nagging injuries last season, but Arians is not known to target the TE position often.  He has WR's to catch the ball in Tampa.  Provided they remain healthy, I don't see OJ doing nearly what the talking heads think.  He will always be one of my favorite TE's, but also very likely to be talked about as having unrealized potential a few years from now.  He's just in the wrong offense to take the major leap people are expecting. 

I agree with you on Howard about the injuries.  I don't necessarily think he'll be underused - by scheme/system, though.  If he does miss games due to injury, which I readily admit is possibly, I believe that's where the limited production could come from.  That said, this whole line of discussion is just more evidence as to why Godwin will get plenty of targets.  If someone wants to say that either Godwin won't catch enough passes, or Howard isn't on the field, or Godwin lost out on playing time because of mental errors (penalties/fumbles), or that Howard was dropping passes... and it's those things that will make either of those two (or both), busts, then I'm perfectly open to accepting that opinion.  But I won't buy the too many mouths or wrong system arguments.

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6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I agree with you on Howard about the injuries.  I don't necessarily think he'll be underused - by scheme/system, though.  If he does miss games due to injury, which I readily admit is possibly, I believe that's where the limited production could come from.  That said, this whole line of discussion is just more evidence as to why Godwin will get plenty of targets.  If someone wants to say that either Godwin won't catch enough passes, or Howard isn't on the field, or Godwin lost out on playing time because of mental errors (penalties/fumbles), or that Howard was dropping passes... and it's those things that will make either of those two (or both), busts, then I'm perfectly open to accepting that opinion.  But I won't buy the too many mouths or wrong system arguments.

Where did I mention anything about Winston and his character? That has nothing to do with my argument. I said in my OP specifically in my opinion I consider Winston a below average QB and my point being the amount of interceptions he's thrown coupled with the FACT that he lost his job to a journeyman back up who had no business starting over him. If anyone sounds biased here its clearly you.

Next, just because old man DJax and Humphries (slot guy) left doesn't mean there still aren't a lot of mouths to feed. Evans and their 2 TE's are all viable options. Add Godwin that makes 4 mouths to feed which in my opinion (again just my opinion which you do not seem to respect) is a lot of people.

My biggest issue with all of your posts is your concrete projections and target shares. Godwin had 95 targets last year, that cannot be disputed it is a statement of fact. Now I ask you how many of those targets came from Winston and how many from Fitzpatrick? Fitzpatrick and Winston split time almost 50/50 last season and both QBs play very differently. Fitzpatrick loves his outside WRs (Evans/Godwin). Winston has a tendency to look over the middle more often hence why he loves his slot guy and his 2 TEs. Brate, who has a pretty big contract, was useless with fitzaptrick starting. Once Winston came back in his numbers came back to normal.

Also you have a new head coach in town so it should be a NEW SYSTEM. Does not mean it's the "wrong system" like you suggest but to expect a linear growth and lofty projection based on how well he did last year seems risky. I'm not going to say dumb or foolish but definitely risky in my opinion to gamble on someone as a low end WR1/high end WR2 when his career high is 800 yards and 7 TDs.

 

Remember, all of tampa's passing stats last year were split between 2 QBs. Its the same reason Winston is a sexy sleeper at the end of drafts but its the exact same reason that I cannot trust Godwin that early.

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Godwin will be fantasy MVP this year :first:

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8 hours ago, BuschWack said:

Kyler Murray.  Let's see what he's got on the NFL level this year, but no way I'm using a draft pick on him now. 

You sound like an owner that missed the boat on Saquon last year. Just because he is a rookie does not mean he will not produce.

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20 minutes ago, Raider 84 said:

Godwin will be fantasy MVP this year :first:

For where he is being drafted he would need to significantly out-produce Mike Evans to be the fantasy MVP. Not impossible but sure seems a lofty prediction.

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Aaron Jones

Derrick Henry

AJ Green

Kenyan Drake

James White

Tarik Cohen

Alshon Jeffery

Lamar Miller

Miles Sanders

Emmanuel Sanders

Keke Coutee

Golden Tate

Devin Funchess

Eli Manning

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On 8/19/2019 at 6:06 AM, Frozenbeernuts said:

Dalvin Cook is just a big pile of meh for me. I don't want any part of him. He is hurt often and just doesn't provide much upside. A very inconsistent player. Why he is going so far before Chris Carson I don't understand

Vikes rebuilt the O-Line  with better athletic talent & speed to open space for Cook, who has looked very explosive in practice, my opinion he has a monster season....Johnson with Arizona is my pick to bust or at best end up with mid-round back stats...reason.....RB- Always questionable with a rookie QB still learning but also likes to rush which will cut into Johnson"s carries....also...The O-Line is shaky and the receiving core is weak, which case teams will beef up the box to negate a decent rushing attack........

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54 minutes ago, xxxdog said:

Vikes rebuilt the O-Line  with better athletic talent & speed to open space for Cook, who has looked very explosive in practice, my opinion he has a monster season....Johnson with Arizona is my pick to bust or at best end up with mid-round back stats...reason.....RB- Always questionable with a rookie QB still learning but also likes to rush which will cut into Johnson"s carries....also...The O-Line is shaky and the receiving core is weak, which case teams will beef up the box to negate a decent rushing attack........

Idk historically I always thought the rushing QB helps the RB but you’re implying the opposite. I know Gus Edwards had some good games last year and Alfred Morris had a great rookie season with RG3. Those are just examples off the top of my head.

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On 8/19/2019 at 10:19 AM, Super Cubs said:

I have Hyde as a mid to late round target depending on the flow of the draft.

Hyde will not make the team.

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11 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Where did I mention anything about Winston and his character? That has nothing to do with my argument. I said in my OP specifically in my opinion I consider Winston a below average QB and my point being the amount of interceptions he's thrown coupled with the FACT that he lost his job to a journeyman back up who had no business starting over him. If anyone sounds biased here its clearly you.

Next, just because old man DJax and Humphries (slot guy) left doesn't mean there still aren't a lot of mouths to feed. Evans and their 2 TE's are all viable options. Add Godwin that makes 4 mouths to feed which in my opinion (again just my opinion which you do not seem to respect) is a lot of people.

My biggest issue with all of your posts is your concrete projections and target shares. Godwin had 95 targets last year, that cannot be disputed it is a statement of fact. Now I ask you how many of those targets came from Winston and how many from Fitzpatrick? Fitzpatrick and Winston split time almost 50/50 last season and both QBs play very differently. Fitzpatrick loves his outside WRs (Evans/Godwin). Winston has a tendency to look over the middle more often hence why he loves his slot guy and his 2 TEs. Brate, who has a pretty big contract, was useless with fitzaptrick starting. Once Winston came back in his numbers came back to normal.

Also you have a new head coach in town so it should be a NEW SYSTEM. Does not mean it's the "wrong system" like you suggest but to expect a linear growth and lofty projection based on how well he did last year seems risky. I'm not going to say dumb or foolish but definitely risky in my opinion to gamble on someone as a low end WR1/high end WR2 when his career high is 800 yards and 7 TDs.

 

Remember, all of tampa's passing stats last year were split between 2 QBs. Its the same reason Winston is a sexy sleeper at the end of drafts but its the exact same reason that I cannot trust Godwin that early.

Here's is why I say that your opinion, and virtually everyone else's opinion's on Winston are character based.  Compare Winston's stats to guys like Eli, Rivers, and Ben... guys who all are considered H.O.F.'ers by a lot of people.  Winston's progress isn't much different than either of them.  Sure, he throws more Int's than Rivers and Ben, but he throws less than Eli.  Project Winston's numbers out to 215 games like these guys and tell me what you find.  You'll find that Winston's first 4 years is relatively close to each of those 3 (slightly better than Eli and slightly worse than the other two).  That's also assuming that Winston, over the next 11 seasons will be exactly what he's been over the last 4, without ever getting better like those 3 did.  Yes, Winston throws a lot of Int's, but over the last 2 seasons he's over 64.1% with a 7.9 ypa, a 4.6 TD%, and a plus 91 passer rating.  These are facts.  You want to sit there and use the excuse that he got benched because his coach was tying to keep his job and play the guy who was playing well, then you're just being lazy.

 

You can say all you want about "mouths to feed", but the fact is, there are LESS mouth's than last year and Godwin is moving up in the pecking order.  Last year, he was the 4th/5th option behind Evans, Jackson, and Humphries / Howard... this year, he's number 2 behind Evans.  He's going to get a ton of targets.  I'll even go as far to say that he might get more than Evans this year because he's actually a bit more talented than Evans.

 

Godwin's target share was pretty even.  In games solely started by Fitzpatrick, he had 30 targets in 5 games (6 avg).  In the 8 games started solely by Winston, he got 53 targets (6.63 avg), so no real difference.  The biggest piece that you're not taking into account is playing time/snap count.  Last year, Godwin was the 3rd WR in snap counts at 64% behind Evans and Humphries.  Over the last 5 games of the season, with Winston, Godwin got 80, 85.7, 82, 76.3, & 83.6 percent.  In the previous 11, he hit 70% only once.  In those last 5 games, he averaged 7 targets a game, where as in the previous 11, he averaged 5.5 per game.

 

Note, I didn't say "wrong system", it was Oldtimer... he actually said "wrong offense" which to me is the same thing.  If it's not to you or he, then my bad.  But my response was to him regarding OJ Howard, not Godwin.  That said, it's not really a "new system" (as you put it), either way.  Koetter and Arians are relatively similar, it's just that Arians is better at calling the right play at the right time.  Now, it will be Leftwich calling the plays, so from that aspect, there could be issues, I won't argue against that.  Though, it's still Winston throwing the ball and going through the progressions.  This year will play out a lot more like the end of last year where Godwin was on the field 81.3% of the time and not the 57.3% from the first 11.

 

You don't think I can make a linear projection on targets.  Fine, you tell me.  I'll give you 550 targets to fill, so that it's easier for you to make an argument against Godwin... because I think we all know that the Bucs are going to throw the ball a lot closer to 600 times than they will 550.  Go!  Who's getting what / how many?  With all your "mouths to feed", you shouldn't have a hard time coming up with a reason why Godwin won't increase his target share by at least 20%.

 

If someone else thinks I'm wrong on this, please, let me know.  I just think the "too many mouth's to feed" and the bad QB arguments just don't hold any water.

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12 hours ago, Raider 84 said:

Godwin will be fantasy MVP this year :first:

It's possible.  He's been falling to the back end of the 5th round.  If you're getting him in round 5 or round 6 and he's your WR3, then he certainly could be your team MVP as he has low WR1 upside.  Getting that from your WR3 is pretty big.

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12 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Aaron Jones

Derrick Henry

AJ Green

Kenyan Drake

James White

Tarik Cohen

Alshon Jeffery

Lamar Miller

Miles Sanders

Emmanuel Sanders

Keke Coutee

Golden Tate

Devin Funchess

Eli Manning

I think that's a really great list.  I don't agree with all of them, but definitely the significant majority.

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Only Winston can ruin it for Godwin. Or a pulled hammy.

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On 8/18/2019 at 8:10 PM, LoOnAtIk said:

My nominees are Kerryon Johnson and Chris Godwin. Both of their ADPs are too high in my opinion. Godwin is talented but a lot of mouths to feed in TB and a below average QB (IMO) throwing the ball. Kerryon also very talented but he’s on a team that notoriously NEVER runs the ball and to think CJA will not cut into his touches seems foolish to me. 

 

No thanks on both. 

 

Any players you guys have as DND because of the bust potential? I know AB is a popular selection.

Bucs lost Humphries/Desean so will have like 180 targets to go around.  Arians likes to air the ball out and their D is awful. And though I agree he's not super talented, I think he's talented enough with the opportunties he's going to get.  Now it does depend on value and now the hype train is on him, but I'm in an auction league but if value is there, think he's solid option.

I'm more with you on Kerryon as though I think he has the talent, just not sure how they'll use him..esp with his value being high (even auction wise he's going for typically more than I'd be comfortable paying).

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1 hour ago, Showboat said:

Stephen Davis

Finally: :bench:

NEVAH!!!  😡😡😡

  • Haha 1

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On 8/19/2019 at 3:00 PM, bobby heenan said:

not sure i understand the hesitance on kerryon johnson

 

jim bob cooter isnt in place anymore...its a different offense....and they added a talented TE that can also block.....

This.  Kerryon Johnson if he can stay healthy should easily post RB1 numbers.  But he must stay healthy!

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I am avoiding those RBs that play for teams that historically run a committee.  Any Patriots or Eagles?  No thank you.

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