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LoOnAtIk

Bust that you will not draft no matter what.

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On 8/19/2019 at 8:47 AM, TwentyFourSeven said:

He has missed a lot of games in the NFL but I wouldn't consider him injury prone (yet). He had his ACL injury which of course is going to knock him out for numerous games. Then they gave him too much too soon. The hamstring injury is a direct result of the ACL and the mismanagement of his recovery. I'm willing to give the guy a chance since he led the league in rushing before the ACL injury.

He has a great schedule to run the ball against. Check the Big Board!

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13 hours ago, The Postman said:

This.  Kerryon Johnson if he can stay healthy should easily post RB1 numbers.  But he must stay healthy!

My worry around him is that the Lions are probably the weakest team in their division. They will have many games against stronger opponents. That can hurt them overall and more importantly the run game if they are playing from behind a lot. 

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7 hours ago, skinsrule05 said:

My worry around him is that the Lions are probably the weakest team in their division. They will have many games against stronger opponents. That can hurt them overall and more importantly the run game if they are playing from behind a lot. 

I agree they could be playing from behind a lot, but aside from coach liking to run ball and eat clock overall, no more Riddick, so Kerryon who had 39 targets/32recs in just 7 games could still be involved even playing from behind.

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I have no interest in AB this year.  Too much crap going on with him and he's on a new team that's not any good.  Not something I want on my team.  I'm staying away from OBJ at his draft position right now as well.

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On 8/21/2019 at 7:05 PM, NAn said:

Bucs lost Humphries/Desean so will have like 180 targets to go around.  Arians likes to air the ball out and their D is awful. And though I agree he's not super talented, I think he's talented enough with the opportunties he's going to get.  Now it does depend on value and now the hype train is on him, but I'm in an auction league but if value is there, think he's solid option.

I'm more with you on Kerryon as though I think he has the talent, just not sure how they'll use him..esp with his value being high (even auction wise he's going for typically more than I'd be comfortable paying).

Arians does have a history of airing it out but that was with Roethlisberger, Palmer, and Andrew Luck. I don’t put Winston in that same category of talent. It will be interesting to see, I do assume they will throw a lot I just wouldn’t count on a huge breakout season when he’s still opposite Mike Evans. I prefer someone like Lockett over Godwin just because of opportunity and track record.

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I think it’s more likely that Antonio Brown loses his mind in the middle of the season and decides to sail around the world instead of play football. For that reason I’m not drafting him.

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3 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Arians does have a history of airing it out but that was with Roethlisberger, Palmer, and Andrew Luck. I don’t put Winston in that same category of talent. It will be interesting to see, I do assume they will throw a lot I just wouldn’t count on a huge breakout season when he’s still opposite Mike Evans. I prefer someone like Lockett over Godwin just because of opportunity and track record.

LOL...

Ben Roethlisberger (average 16-game season): 64.4% / 4163 yards / 7.8 ypa / 27 TD / 14 INT / 94.2 passer rating

Different era argument? - here's Ben's 16-game average under Arians, 2007-11 seasons 4-8: 63.4% / 3958 / 7.9 / 25 / 12 / 94 

 

Carson Palmer (average 16-game season): 62.5% / 4066 yards / 7.3 ypa / 26 TD / 16 INT / 87.9 passer rating

Here's Palmer's 16-game average with Arians, 2013-2017 seasons 10-14:  62.5 / 4475 / 7.6 / 28 / 15 / 91.1

 

Andrew Luck (average 16-game season): 60.8% / 4404 yards / 7.2 ypa / 32 TD / 15 INT / 89.5 passer rating

 

Jameis Winston (average 16-game season): 61.6% / 4179 yards / 7.6 ypa / 25 TD / 17 INT / 87.8 passer rating

Nooo... not the same talent at all.  Winston's numbers, without Arians, are in line with the other 3.

 

Still waiting on how you think the targets are going to get split up....

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3 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Arians does have a history of airing it out but that was with Roethlisberger, Palmer, and Andrew Luck. I don’t put Winston in that same category of talent. It will be interesting to see, I do assume they will throw a lot I just wouldn’t count on a huge breakout season when he’s still opposite Mike Evans. I prefer someone like Lockett over Godwin just because of opportunity and track record.

Again, I don't think he's vastly taleted, but think he's talented enough, the key is the volume he will likely get.  Bucs Di is awful.. He'll have plenty of opportunities.

And sorry I don't get Locket in general and definitely not b/c of 'track record':

Locket PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LockTy00.htm

Godwin PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GodwCh00.htm

Locket's track record is a mediocre WR avg'ing 49recs/695yds.  He came on FF radars with his 10TDs on 57 recs last year.  Just will not happen again.

Godwin by comparison made a bigger jump in 2 years than Locket did in 4.  

Woods/Jeffery/Bolts Williams just a few guys off top of my head I'd take over Locket.

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1 hour ago, NAn said:

Again, I don't think he's vastly taleted, but think he's talented enough, the key is the volume he will likely get.  Bucs Di is awful.. He'll have plenty of opportunities.

And sorry I don't get Locket in general and definitely not b/c of 'track record':

Locket PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LockTy00.htm

Godwin PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GodwCh00.htm

Locket's track record is a mediocre WR avg'ing 49recs/695yds.  He came on FF radars with his 10TDs on 57 recs last year.  Just will not happen again.

Godwin by comparison made a bigger jump in 2 years than Locket did in 4.  

Woods/Jeffery/Bolts Williams just a few guys off top of my head I'd take over Locket.

The assumption is that with Baldwin now gone, the lions share of the targets will go to Lockett, and by metrics of separation and catch %, Lockett was EXCELLENT last year. So yeah just like I have an opinion you have yours. But to say “it will not happen”? Why not? Is Russell Wilson not a top 10 fantasy QB? Who do you have him throwing to? Carson? Moore? The assumption is that Lockett will get more targets, that’s all. He’s not playing opposite Mike evans.

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4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

LOL...

Ben Roethlisberger (average 16-game season): 64.4% / 4163 yards / 7.8 ypa / 27 TD / 14 INT / 94.2 passer rating

Different era argument? - here's Ben's 16-game average under Arians, 2007-11 seasons 4-8: 63.4% / 3958 / 7.9 / 25 / 12 / 94 

 

Carson Palmer (average 16-game season): 62.5% / 4066 yards / 7.3 ypa / 26 TD / 16 INT / 87.9 passer rating

Here's Palmer's 16-game average with Arians, 2013-2017 seasons 10-14:  62.5 / 4475 / 7.6 / 28 / 15 / 91.1

 

Andrew Luck (average 16-game season): 60.8% / 4404 yards / 7.2 ypa / 32 TD / 15 INT / 89.5 passer rating

 

Jameis Winston (average 16-game season): 61.6% / 4179 yards / 7.6 ypa / 25 TD / 17 INT / 87.8 passer rating

Nooo... not the same talent at all.  Winston's numbers, without Arians, are in line with the other 3.

 

Still waiting on how you think the targets are going to get split up....

Sorry if I don’t want to keep going back in forth with

(A) someone who doesn’t respect my opinion.

 

and 

 

(B) Someone who argues that their QB has improved over 4 years yet he got benched in the middle of year 4. 

 

Call me lazy again but to each his own. GL this year in fantasy and buccaneers.

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1 hour ago, NAn said:

Again, I don't think he's vastly taleted, but think he's talented enough, the key is the volume he will likely get.  Bucs Di is awful.. He'll have plenty of opportunities.

And sorry I don't get Locket in general and definitely not b/c of 'track record':

Locket PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LockTy00.htm

Godwin PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GodwCh00.htm

Locket's track record is a mediocre WR avg'ing 49recs/695yds.  He came on FF radars with his 10TDs on 57 recs last year.  Just will not happen again.

Godwin by comparison made a bigger jump in 2 years than Locket did in 4.  

Woods/Jeffery/Bolts Williams just a few guys off top of my head I'd take over Locket.

I also mentioned it in an earlier post with TBay. To argue that progression is linear is really REALLY stupid. Every season is different with a TON of variables such as player personnel, coaching staff, game plan, injuries and such. So to say Player A has improved from this year to the next and expect the SAME PROGRESSION is really dumb. 

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3 hours ago, NAn said:

Again, I don't think he's vastly taleted, but think he's talented enough, the key is the volume he will likely get.  Bucs Di is awful.. He'll have plenty of opportunities.

And sorry I don't get Locket in general and definitely not b/c of 'track record':

Locket PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LockTy00.htm

Godwin PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GodwCh00.htm

Locket's track record is a mediocre WR avg'ing 49recs/695yds.  He came on FF radars with his 10TDs on 57 recs last year.  Just will not happen again.

Godwin by comparison made a bigger jump in 2 years than Locket did in 4.  

Woods/Jeffery/Bolts Williams just a few guys off top of my head I'd take over Locket.

Lockett was playing hurt the prior year and before that he was only the Seahawks WR2b or WR3 and didn't get many targets.  So you're Lockett average is flawed.  I'm going with his stats from last year and expect a bump in opportunity this year too.  In 2018 Lockett was the most efficient WR in a season in the history of the NFL and by a wide margin, how can you not like him?  He probably won't do that good again, but I don't see much of a regression and expect extra targets to make his stats even better this year.

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I have a man crush on Godwin. TOP 10 :headbanger:

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12 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I also mentioned it in an earlier post with TBay. To argue that progression is linear is really REALLY stupid. Every season is different with a TON of variables such as player personnel, coaching staff, game plan, injuries and such. So to say Player A has improved from this year to the next and expect the SAME PROGRESSION is really dumb. 

Wow, possible to express your  take differs from mine without calling my take dumb and stupid?  Nice. I mean to say there are more mouths to feed in TB, when there actually aren't was stupid, but  I didn't say so.  My take is no more linear than your own of liking Locket more b/c of his 'track record' or the Lions won't run ball much this year b/c they haven't in the past.  We all know there are  TONS of variables, that's no keen insight.   Doesn't stop all of us on this board from still sharing our opinions, projections, etc. even knowing in end  we'll all be wrong as often as we are right.  Yes, Loon, even you.  Even me.  None of us have all the answers it's why we come to a forum like this.  So how about you stop talking down to people like you know it all and just talk football huh?

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2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Lockett was playing hurt the prior year and before that he was only the Seahawks WR2b or WR3 and didn't get many targets.  So you're Lockett average is flawed.  I'm going with his stats from last year and expect a bump in opportunity this year too.  In 2018 Lockett was the most efficient WR in a season in the history of the NFL and by a wide margin, how can you not like him?  He probably won't do that good again, but I don't see much of a regression and expect extra targets to make his stats even better this year.

First thanks for being an adult andl and calling my take 'flawed' rather than just outright dumb/stupid like LookTalks.  For my part I don't like him, oddly for him being most effiecent WR by a wide margin.  I think it will just be too difficult to duplicate 2018, which will end up being the anomaly.  Good points re: him not being the #1 in those other years.  I just don't think he can really succeed as a #1 to level he's being drafted.  You have him above Godwin/Bolts Williams?  Just curious where you rank him.

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1 hour ago, NAn said:

First thanks for being an adult andl and calling my take 'flawed' rather than just outright dumb/stupid like LookTalks.  For my part I don't like him, oddly for him being most effiecent WR by a wide margin.  I think it will just be too difficult to duplicate 2018, which will end up being the anomaly.  Good points re: him not being the #1 in those other years.  I just don't think he can really succeed as a #1 to level he's being drafted.  You have him above Godwin/Bolts Williams?  Just curious where you rank him.

FFToday has Locket ahead of Godwin and Mike Williams and I copied their ranking to an Excel file and I haven't tweaked all the players to my rankings yet, my draft isn't for another week.  I need to do that, I haven't decided how I will rank these 3.  I had Lockett and Mike Williams last year.  You could argue Mike Williams and Godwin should be ranked higher actually and I'm going to target Mike Williams and Lockett in my auction league and do think I prefer Williams.

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7 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

FFToday has Locket ahead of Godwin and Mike Williams and I copied their ranking to an Excel file and I haven't tweaked all the players to my rankings yet, my draft isn't for another week.  I need to do that, I haven't decided how I will rank these 3.  I had Lockett and Mike Williams last year.  You could argue Mike Williams and Godwin should be ranked higher actually and I'm going to target Mike Williams and Lockett in my auction league and do think I prefer Williams.

Also in an auction and also drafting next week (Labor day)...when's yours?  I was going to post some key player costs, insights, etc from my draft in another thread if yours is later (I bumped a thread about it).  I'm tweaking my rankings too, but right now have  Godwin/Williams like 3-4 spots higher and Lockett 5-6 lower than how their listed on FFTs rankings.  Like to get one of the big 4 RBs and one of the tier 3 RBs, but then will have to go on the cheap at  WR so looking at some value guys in that 4-6 tier

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I won't be drafting Eli this year, but the year after the year after next I probably will consider it.

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14 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Sorry if I don’t want to keep going back in forth with

(A) someone who doesn’t respect my opinion.

 

and 

 

(B) Someone who argues that their QB has improved over 4 years yet he got benched in the middle of year 4. 

 

Call me lazy again but to each his own. GL this year in fantasy and buccaneers.

You are lazy.  I can't respect an opinion based on total laziness and contrived excuses.  There's absolutely ZERO evidence to support your claims.

 

As proof, you said Tampa had too many mouths to feed.  You can't even support THAT with an opinion.  If you don't think he'll be much better than last year, share the rationale.  Tell us how many passes you think Winston (or even the team), will throw.  Tell us how many targets you think each player will get.  You don't have to give us every player, just the highlights.... Evans, Godwin, Perriman, Brate, Howard, then the rest of the WR/RB corp as a total.

 

The fact that you CAN'T prove your opinion is proof that you don't know what you're talking about.

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8 hours ago, Gepetto said:

FFToday has Locket ahead of Godwin and Mike Williams and I copied their ranking to an Excel file and I haven't tweaked all the players to my rankings yet, my draft isn't for another week.  I need to do that, I haven't decided how I will rank these 3.  I had Lockett and Mike Williams last year.  You could argue Mike Williams and Godwin should be ranked higher actually and I'm going to target Mike Williams and Lockett in my auction league and do think I prefer Williams.

I think Lockett sees a bump in targets... like 95 or so.  He'll catch about 68% for 65 receptions.  I think he'll average around 15.5 ypr for a total of 1007 yards and have about 7 TD's.  Apparently I'm not too far off from FFToday.


I have Godwin at 130 targets, catching 65% for 84 receptions.  I think he'll be at 14.5 ypr for 1225 yards and 9 TD's.  FFToday and I are miles apart on this one.  I don't see the 71 receptions nor the low ypr average.  Both seem unlikely based on the system, team, and situation.  The ONLY thing I can think of is that they feel Winston will play himself out of the job.  I see Winston as a Top 5 fantasy QB and possibly in contention for #1.

 

I have Winston at 610 attempts with a 7.8 ypa average, putting him at 4,758 yards.  Where Winston ranks in the top 5 (to me), will be based on TD's.  At 28, he'll probably be in the 5 to 7 range.  I think he'll be around 32, putting him in the 3-5 range.  He could be over 40 and be #1.

 

 

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4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Lockett sees a bump in targets... like 95 or so.  He'll catch about 68% for 65 receptions.  I think he'll average around 15.5 ypr for a total of 1007 yards and have about 7 TD's.  Apparently I'm not too far off from FFToday.


I have Godwin at 130 targets, catching 65% for 84 receptions.  I think he'll be at 14.5 ypr for 1225 yards and 9 TD's.  FFToday and I are miles apart on this one.  I don't see the 71 receptions nor the low ypr average.  Both seem unlikely based on the system, team, and situation.  The ONLY thing I can think of is that they feel Winston will play himself out of the job.  I see Winston as a Top 5 fantasy QB and possibly in contention for #1.

 

I have Winston at 610 attempts with a 7.8 ypa average, putting him at 4,758 yards.  Where Winston ranks in the top 5 (to me), will be based on TD's.  At 28, he'll probably be in the 5 to 7 range.  I think he'll be around 32, putting him in the 3-5 range.  He could be over 40 and be #1.

 

 

I have them both projected a notch below where you have them, but point being, do like Godwin more in a O that could be wide open.

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19 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

This 00000000000 is the number of touchdowns Antonio Brown has caught from a QB other than Ben

Yeah some people are saying he did great with backups. It's just not the case. 

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20 hours ago, NAn said:

Wow, possible to express your  take differs from mine without calling my take dumb and stupid?  Nice. I mean to say there are more mouths to feed in TB, when there actually aren't was stupid, but  I didn't say so.  My take is no more linear than your own of liking Locket more b/c of his 'track record' or the Lions won't run ball much this year b/c they haven't in the past.  We all know there are  TONS of variables, that's no keen insight.   Doesn't stop all of us on this board from still sharing our opinions, projections, etc. even knowing in end  we'll all be wrong as often as we are right.  Yes, Loon, even you.  Even me.  None of us have all the answers it's why we come to a forum like this.  So how about you stop talking down to people like you know it all and just talk football huh?

I’m not attacking you in anyway I just mentioned this take earlier and you probably skipped it or ignored it. 

 

I disagreed with your take before you even made it, im sorry. But the only stats you provided were year to year improvements which mean very little (IN MY OPINION). 

 

i presented to you the fact that Lockett was actually a stud last year when the ball went his way (advanced metrics. Example: separation and catch %). Someone else just recently echoed the same thing on this thread. 

 

Also if you read my post you’ll see I never said “more” mouths to feed I just said “a lot”. Just because it’s less than last year doesn’t mean it’s still not a lot of mouths.

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10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

You are lazy.  I can't respect an opinion based on total laziness and contrived excuses.  There's absolutely ZERO evidence to support your claims.

 

As proof, you said Tampa had too many mouths to feed.  You can't even support THAT with an opinion.  If you don't think he'll be much better than last year, share the rationale.  Tell us how many passes you think Winston (or even the team), will throw.  Tell us how many targets you think each player will get.  You don't have to give us every player, just the highlights.... Evans, Godwin, Perriman, Brate, Howard, then the rest of the WR/RB corp as a total.

 

The fact that you CAN'T prove your opinion is proof that you don't know what you're talking about.

Please read your final sentence lol

 

”the fact you can’t prove your opinion...”

 

no offense dude but that LITERALLY makes no sense. Let’s go back to grade school. What’s the difference between a fact and an opinion?

 

 

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On 8/19/2019 at 12:17 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

With respect to Godwin, I don't discount the fact that he could be a bust, but the reasoning that you lay out seems rather implausible.

  • "...a lot of mouths to feed" - The Bucs actually have LESS mouths than last year.  Both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are gone and they were only replaced by Breshad Perriman.
    • Jackson and Humphries accounted for 179 targets.  The Bucs threw the ball 625 times.  If you think Tampa's defense is going to be that much better than last year, let's say they throw the ball 575 times this year.  OJ Howard saw only 48 targets.  Let's bump him up to 90.  So of the 179 targets that left, we eliminated 50 from the overall total and bumped Howard up 40, leaving about 90 targets unaccounted for.  Who's getting them?  With more mouths to feed and less available targets, Godwin saw 95 targets last year.  I don't see how an argument can be made for anything less than a 20-30 target INCREASE.
  • "...below average QB" - I think virtually everyone here has the same opinion as you about Winston being below average.  That said, you're reasoning seems flawed if you're going by "throwing the ball".  Winston's completion percentage went up every year.  His yards per attempt over the last 2 years is 7.9.  Yes, he throw's INT's, no one is going to debate that.  But if the Bucs throw the ball 575 times and Winston doesn't improve on the 64.6% and 7.9 ypa, he's going to throw for 4500 yards.  If his TD% is his career average at 4.6%, that's 27 TD's.  Technically, with a significantly better coach and system, you'd have to think that Winston, after 4 years of improvement, will totally collapse.  To me, that's highly unlikely.

This was your original take that I disagree with. Then it somehow became that I’m lazy and I don’t like Winston as a character. How someone can assume this when my take is for Chris Godwin is flipping asinine. Godwin is competing with people for targets. This is a fact. He is also competing with someone that is arguably better than him (Evans).Will he get more targets than last year? Perhaps. Will it be A LOT more? Who knows. Evans career high in targets is around 40 more than he got last year. What if he has a breakout season (career high in targets)? What if OJ Howard has a breakout season? 

 

These are are the variables that keep me off Godwin at his current ADP. Who is Lockett competing with for targets in Seattle?

 

please TBay gimme a break. I’ve given plenty of reasons to support MY OPINION. You’ve made it very clear you’re biased buccaneers fan. I’m not in anyway a Winston hater but he came back from suspension last year, started 3 games and got benched. Sorry if those facts throw a monkey wrench into your “4 years of improvement” stance.

 

go ahead keep calling me lazy. Go Bucs!

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On 8/21/2019 at 10:52 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

I'll even go as far to say that he might get more than Evans this year because he's actually a bit more talented than Evans.

Count me on this train.  Godwin is a more well rounded do it all WR.

Evans has immense size and catch radius but he has largely been a catch and go down player in his career whether based on scheme or just his playing style.

 

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13 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

This was your original take that I disagree with. Then it somehow became that I’m lazy and I don’t like Winston as a character. How someone can assume this when my take is for Chris Godwin is flipping asinine. Godwin is competing with people for targets. This is a fact. He is also competing with someone that is arguably better than him (Evans).Will he get more targets than last year? Perhaps. Will it be A LOT more? Who knows. Evans career high in targets is around 40 more than he got last year. What if he has a breakout season (career high in targets)? What if OJ Howard has a breakout season? 

 

These are are the variables that keep me off Godwin at his current ADP. Who is Lockett competing with for targets in Seattle?

 

please TBay gimme a break. I’ve given plenty of reasons to support MY OPINION. You’ve made it very clear you’re biased buccaneers fan. I’m not in anyway a Winston hater but he came back from suspension last year, started 3 games and got benched. Sorry if those facts throw a monkey wrench into your “4 years of improvement” stance.

 

go ahead keep calling me lazy. Go Bucs!

Sorry, you just don't what you're talking about.

 

Evans can certainly increase his target share by 40 and Howard by 50... but there's still 90 more targets left from the departure of Humphries and Jackson.  Also, Jacquizz Rodgers and his 45 targets are gone too... and the Bucs replaced him with Andre Ellington.  Whoopie!  You know what, lets assume he gets 50 targets!  Still leaves over 80 targets left.  Can't imaging for the life of me who might get those..... 🤔

 

Who's competing with Lockett?  The OC!  They threw the ball 427 times last year!  On average, Wilson throws the ball about 470 times a season.  Lockett doesn't need another player to take targets away, the team does that automatically.  Last year, Baldwin only got 73 targets.  The Seahawks did draft a WR in the 2nd round, no?  Lets give him 45 targets.  David Moore played well last year, let's give him another 15 more.  That's 60 of the 73 Baldwin left behind.  I gave Lockett 25 more targets... that means I'm adding an extra 15 targets to last years number.  All of that is without the assumption that Penny and Carson stay healthy and get more playing time and targets.

 

It's not bias dude, it's common sense.  There's 180 targets left behind from last year.  There are LESS mouths to feed.  Someone is going to get the targets.  Godwin has the best access because he's the only one on that team who's going to have his playing time significantly increased.

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12 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

Count me on this train.  Godwin is a more well rounded do it all WR.

Evans has immense size and catch radius but he has largely been a catch and go down player in his career whether based on scheme or just his playing style.

 

Agreed.  I think people here saying that Godwin is that talented, must not have watched him play.  Godwin's biggest problem coming into the league was route running.  He was quite raw.  He's better than Evans in a lot of areas... getting separation, yards after catch, hands, and speed.  Evans can certainly catch and has a huge catch radius, but as you mentioned, he catches the ball and goes down right away or runs out of bounds.  Sure, that's great and all for staying healthy, but he'd really be better for his team (and fantasy), if he'd try to turn the ball up field and make a guy miss.

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16 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I’m not attacking you in anyway I just mentioned this take earlier and you probably skipped it or ignored it. 

 

I disagreed with your take before you even made it, im sorry. But the only stats you provided were year to year improvements which mean very little (IN MY OPINION). 

 

i presented to you the fact that Lockett was actually a stud last year when the ball went his way (advanced metrics. Example: separation and catch %). Someone else just recently echoed the same thing on this thread. 

 

Also if you read my post you’ll see I never said “more” mouths to feed I just said “a lot”. Just because it’s less than last year doesn’t mean it’s still not a lot of mouths.

Wow and the semantics argument to call attention from fact that the your thought process was still incorrect.

And you disagree b/c you feel year to year improvement means little is fine.  but then you reference how Lockett did last year for how he'll do this year.

So my take of past performance projecting future performance means very little while yours of past performance projecting future performance is fine?  

Just sounds contradictory.

Anyway, we disagree, I'll move on.

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5 hours ago, NAn said:

Wow and the semantics argument to call attention from fact that the your thought process was still incorrect.

And you disagree b/c you feel year to year improvement means little is fine.  but then you reference how Lockett did last year for how he'll do this year.

So my take of past performance projecting future performance means very little while yours of past performance projecting future performance is fine?  

Just sounds contradictory.

Anyway, we disagree, I'll move on.

It’s not semantics if you thought I said there’s “more” mouths to feed which is wrong as opposed to “a lot” there’s a big difference there. Secondly the warm bodies that left will be replaced by more warm bodies who will receive targets as well, believe it or not. So to say there’s LESS mouths to feed is actually inaccurate. 

 

Catch percentage is a stat designed to show the effectiveness of a WR hands and the amount of drops he has. Considering his percentage has improved each year is something to take note of. (Or in your case disregard and ignore).

 

but to say last year he had 500 yards then the next 900 yards, he sucks. That’s not indicative of literally anything. 

 

To each his own.

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10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Sorry, you just don't what you're talking about.

 

Evans can certainly increase his target share by 40 and Howard by 50... but there's still 90 more targets left from the departure of Humphries and Jackson.  Also, Jacquizz Rodgers and his 45 targets are gone too... and the Bucs replaced him with Andre Ellington.  Whoopie!  You know what, lets assume he gets 50 targets!  Still leaves over 80 targets left.  Can't imaging for the life of me who might get those..... 🤔

 

Who's competing with Lockett?  The OC!  They threw the ball 427 times last year!  On average, Wilson throws the ball about 470 times a season.  Lockett doesn't need another player to take targets away, the team does that automatically.  Last year, Baldwin only got 73 targets.  The Seahawks did draft a WR in the 2nd round, no?  Lets give him 45 targets.  David Moore played well last year, let's give him another 15 more.  That's 60 of the 73 Baldwin left behind.  I gave Lockett 25 more targets... that means I'm adding an extra 15 targets to last years number.  All of that is without the assumption that Penny and Carson stay healthy and get more playing time and targets.

 

It's not bias dude, it's common sense.  There's 180 targets left behind from last year.  There are LESS mouths to feed.  Someone is going to get the targets.  Godwin has the best access because he's the only one on that team who's going to have his playing time significantly increased.

Tbay hear me out.

 

the thread was supposed to be fun and just opinionated. I mentioned I will not be drafting Kerryon and Godwin because of their ADP. I told you why my opinion is that way but you keep badgering me as if it’s wrong. Your first response was literally a huge post defending your boy Godwin, then defending Winston even to the point of assuming I hate the guy which I don’t. 

 

Why cant I just have an opinion sir? I have Winston as a BELOW average starting QB in the NFL and you even said most on here would agree with that. 

 

That has has nothing to do with how I feel about him as a person. I’ve ALWAYS shad this opinion of Winston since Florida state. He doesn’t always make the right decision and he throws some wobbly lame ducks. I never thought he was worthy of the 1st overall pick. 

 

Again Tbay, this is and has always been my opinion of HIS PLAY. Key word: “OPINION”. Crab legs and touching an Uber driver doesn’t change any of that. 

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Tbay can you give me an example of a team that had 2 or 3 viable fantasy WR/TE (pass catchers) on the same season? 

 

Greatest show on turf

Manning with colts and broncos

brady a few times

Vikings last 2 seasons.

 

My point is these are good teams. To expect a high powered fantasy offense from a bad team seems risky to me. 

 

Also just looking at your “projections” you gave Howard a bump from 48 to 90 but that would basically just keep him on the same pace he was already on last year. What if he were to have a break out and he saw his targets increase significantly? Does Perriman see the field and receive 0 targets? What if Brate, Howard, and Evans dominate the red zone targets? Will Godwin repeat the 7 TDs?

 

You wanna talk about flawed arguments? That’s why I do not want to get into projections with you.

Godwin is on a team that will throw a lot but we all know he’s not the number 1 guy there. Even if he improves all of his numbers across the board I can see some very inconsistent weeks just based on targets and spreading the ball. He’s going to have weeks with 10 catches 150 then other weeks with 2 catches 10 yards. Lockett should be more consistent from week to week because he will be the main target thru the air. (Emphasis on “SHOULD”)

 

but at the end end of the day it’s all just an opinion which you fail to understand.

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

It’s not semantics if you thought I said there’s “more” mouths to feed which is wrong as opposed to “a lot” there’s a big difference there. Secondly the warm bodies that left will be replaced by more warm bodies who will receive targets as well, believe it or not. So to say there’s LESS mouths to feed is actually inaccurate. 

 

Catch percentage is a stat designed to show the effectiveness of a WR hands and the amount of drops he has. Considering his percentage has improved each year is something to take note of. (Or in your case disregard and ignore).

 

but to say last year he had 500 yards then the next 900 yards, he sucks. That’s not indicative of literally anything. 

 

To each his own.

LOL, again so you citing 'percentage of WR hands/drops has improved each year is something to note, but when I state that Godwin's targets/recs/yds have improved each year it's not indicative of anything

Hilarious. Yes to each his own.  Good luck FF wise there guy.

 

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2 minutes ago, NAn said:

LOL, again so you citing 'percentage of WR hands/drops has improved each year is something to note, but when I state that Godwin's targets/recs/yds have improved each year it's not indicative of anything

Hilarious. Yes to each his own.  Good luck FF wise there guy.

 

You keep failing to understand the point but since you mentioned targets, here goes.

 

a WRs targets fluctuate based on many different factors, QB, gameplan, etc. It is a flawed stat to use as correlation for year to year improvement because of the variables involved.

 

Catch % has much MUCH fewer variables. It’s used to measure how good a WR hands are and nothing else. 

 

Its ok if you disagree with my opinions but these are facts that cannot be argued. But please, feel free.

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Tbay hear me out.

 

the thread was supposed to be fun and just opinionated. I mentioned I will not be drafting Kerryon and Godwin because of their ADP. I told you why my opinion is that way but you keep badgering me as if it’s wrong. Your first response was literally a huge post defending your boy Godwin, then defending Winston even to the point of assuming I hate the guy which I don’t. 

 

Why cant I just have an opinion sir? I have Winston as a BELOW average starting QB in the NFL and you even said most on here would agree with that. 

 

That has has nothing to do with how I feel about him as a person. I’ve ALWAYS shad this opinion of Winston since Florida state. He doesn’t always make the right decision and he throws some wobbly lame ducks. I never thought he was worthy of the 1st overall pick. 

 

Again Tbay, this is and has always been my opinion of HIS PLAY. Key word: “OPINION”. Crab legs and touching an Uber driver doesn’t change any of that. 

 

totally agree with this post.  The obsession that Tbay has for his team is clouding his judgement. Yes, it is totally possible Godwin explodes with a monster 85 catch 1200 yard 9 td season, but there are WAY too many mouths to feed in that offence with an average QB for that to happen.  There are safer players to draft at that ADP

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6 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You keep failing to understand the point but since you mentioned targets, here goes.

 

a WRs targets fluctuate based on many different factors, QB, gameplan, etc. It is a flawed stat to use as correlation for year to year improvement because of the variables involved.

 

Catch % has much MUCH fewer variables. It’s used to measure how good a WR hands are and nothing else. 

 

Its ok if you disagree with my opinions but these are facts that cannot be argued. But please, feel free.

 

Would catch % decrease or increase with a decrease in Winston's uber crotch grabbing?  

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13 hours ago, Canadianfan said:

 

totally agree with this post.  The obsession that Tbay has for his team is clouding his judgement. Yes, it is totally possible Godwin explodes with a monster 85 catch 1200 yard 9 td season, but there are WAY too many mouths to feed in that offence with an average QB for that to happen.  There are safer players to draft at that ADP

This has nothing to do with clouding of judgement.  This is mathematical and logical common sense.

Fact... there AREN'T too many mouths to feed

Fact... there are LESS mouths to feed

Fact... Cameron Brate was on the field 69% of the snaps in games 11-16 (games which Howard missed), but only 36% when Howard played.

Fact... last year Chris Godwin was passing option #4

Fact... this year Chris Godwin is passing option #2

Fact... last year Chris Godwin got 57% of the snaps in the first 11 games, and got 5.55 targets per game

Fact... last year Chris Godwin got 81% of the snaps in his last 5 games (which he started), and got 6.80 targets per game.

 

When you factor in that there are LESS mouths to feed, plus playing time increase, plus a higher priority in progression reads, there's only ONE logical conclusion.  MORE TARGETS!  Godwin, in his 2 seasons is catching 62.2% of the passes thrown his way.... as a reference, DeAndre Hopkins is at 58.8% and Julio Jones is at 62.7%, so it's not like he can't catch.

 

Cameron Brate isn't the target option people seem to think he is.  Since Howard was drafted, Brate's targets dropped each year.  Last year he got half of his targets in the last 6 games of the season... which Howard didn't play.

The Bucs, just like the Vikings, are a 3-headed attack.  In Minnesota, it's Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph... in Tampa, it's Evans, Godwin, and Howard.  Period.  Last year, Thielen had 153 targets, Diggs 149, and Rudolph 82.  You're going to tell me that Tampa can't have Evans at 150, Godwin 130, and Howard 100?  Who on Tampa is going to command more targets than their past shows?  Perriman?  He's only had 60 targets in the last 2 seasons... combined.  Last year, Laquon Treadwell in Minnesota had 53.  Last year, both Minnesota's and Tampa's RB's had 79 pass targets.  Last year, Brate plus Howard saw 97 pass targets, Rudolph plus their other 2 TE's, saw 95 targets.

Last year, Cousins threw the ball 606 times, Fitz and Winston... 624.  Tell me, what am I missing?  What is it about these numbers tell you that I'm bias?  Since August 8th, Godwin is WR16.  Last year, he was WR25.  To me, when you look at the obvious... more playing time and more targets, a bump like that is completely reasonable.  Godwin, at WR16, his ADP is 4.07.  Josh Gordon at WR25 is going at 5.10.  So, if you assume that Chris Godwin, with more playing time, higher progression level, and less mouth's to feed, will still end up at WR25 this year, that means he's literally getting draft ONE round too early.  1.  1 round.  1.  That qualifies as a "bust that you will not draft...", like the OP started out with?

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