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LoOnAtIk

Bust that you will not draft no matter what.

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13 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You keep failing to understand the point but since you mentioned targets, here goes.

 

a WRs targets fluctuate based on many different factors, QB, gameplan, etc. It is a flawed stat to use as correlation for year to year improvement because of the variables involved.

 

Catch % has much MUCH fewer variables. It’s used to measure how good a WR hands are and nothing else. 

 

Its ok if you disagree with my opinions but these are facts that cannot be argued. But please, feel free.

Here's something you are failing to see... the Tampa situation with Evans, Godwin, and Howard - plus remaining cast, is EXACTLY the SAME as Minnesota with Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph - plus remaining cast.

Catch% - DeAndre Hopkins (career), 58.8%, Godwin, 62.2, Julio Jones. 62.7.   I think Godwin is fine.  You?

As I said in the very first post, if you think Godwin isn't that good or overrated, that's fine as to that being your opinion... but if you're going to come with this "too many mouths..." and "bad qb" argument, then you're just wrong.  I'm sorry.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Here's something you are failing to see... the Tampa situation with Evans, Godwin, and Howard - plus remaining cast, is EXACTLY the SAME as Minnesota with Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph - plus remaining cast.

Catch% - DeAndre Hopkins (career), 58.8%, Godwin, 62.2, Julio Jones. 62.7.   I think Godwin is fine.  You?

As I said in the very first post, if you think Godwin isn't that good or overrated, that's fine as to that being your opinion... but if you're going to come with this "too many mouths..." and "bad qb" argument, then you're just wrong.  I'm sorry.

Exactly the same? 

 

I disagree I think Mike Evans is Mike Evans and Adam Thielen is Adam Thielen. 

 

You’ve been so busy arguing with me that you haven’t offered anything to this thread. Who is the guy you just simply do not want to draft? 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

This has nothing to do with clouding of judgement.  This is mathematical and logical common sense.

Fact... there AREN'T too many mouths to feed

Fact... there are LESS mouths to feed

Fact... Cameron Brate was on the field 69% of the snaps in games 11-16 (games which Howard missed), but only 36% when Howard played.

Fact... last year Chris Godwin was passing option #4

Fact... this year Chris Godwin is passing option #2

Fact... last year Chris Godwin got 57% of the snaps in the first 11 games, and got 5.55 targets per game

Fact... last year Chris Godwin got 81% of the snaps in his last 5 games (which he started), and got 6.80 targets per game.

 

When you factor in that there are LESS mouths to feed, plus playing time increase, plus a higher priority in progression reads, there's only ONE logical conclusion.  MORE TARGETS!  Godwin, in his 2 seasons is catching 62.2% of the passes thrown his way.... as a reference, DeAndre Hopkins is at 58.8% and Julio Jones is at 62.7%, so it's not like he can't catch.

 

Cameron Brate isn't the target option people seem to think he is.  Since Howard was drafted, Brate's targets dropped each year.  Last year he got half of his targets in the last 6 games of the season... which Howard didn't play.

The Bucs, just like the Vikings, are a 3-headed attack.  In Minnesota, it's Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph... in Tampa, it's Evans, Godwin, and Howard.  Period.  Last year, Thielen had 153 targets, Diggs 149, and Rudolph 82.  You're going to tell me that Tampa can't have Evans at 150, Godwin 130, and Howard 100?  Who on Tampa is going to command more targets than their past shows?  Perriman?  He's only had 60 targets in the last 2 seasons... combined.  Last year, Laquon Treadwell in Minnesota had 53.  Last year, both Minnesota's and Tampa's RB's had 79 pass targets.  Last year, Brate plus Howard saw 97 pass targets, Rudolph plus their other 2 TE's, saw 95 targets.

Last year, Cousins threw the ball 606 times, Fitz and Winston... 624.  Tell me, what am I missing?  What is it about these numbers tell you that I'm bias?  Since August 8th, Godwin is WR16.  Last year, he was WR25.  To me, when you look at the obvious... more playing time and more targets, a bump like that is completely reasonable.  Godwin, at WR16, his ADP is 4.07.  Josh Gordon at WR25 is going at 5.10.  So, if you assume that Chris Godwin, with more playing time, higher progression level, and less mouth's to feed, will still end up at WR25 this year, that means he's literally getting draft ONE round too early.  1.  1 round.  1.  That qualifies as a "bust that you will not draft...", like the OP started out with?

You got 1 of your facts wrong technically it’s the same amount of mouths to feed if they lineup in the same sets as last year. Djax and Humphries will be replaced by human beings, not empty spaces or ghosts. And guess what, these replacement players such as Perriman, have mouths lol. They will get targets if they’re on the field.

 

Also I like how you bring up catch % and mention Julio and Hopkins. So now that you see where Lockett’s is does that change your opinion slightly? He was ELITE when the ball went his way last year.

 

Go Bucs!

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56 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You got 1 of your facts wrong technically it’s the same amount of mouths to feed if they lineup in the same sets as last year. Djax and Humphries will be replaced by human beings, not empty spaces or ghosts. And guess what, these replacement players such as Perriman, have mouths lol. They will get targets if they’re on the field.

 

Also I like how you bring up catch % and mention Julio and Hopkins. So now that you see where Lockett’s is does that change your opinion slightly? He was ELITE when the ball went his way last year.

 

Go Bucs!

No, I am right, it is less.  The starters last year were Evans, Jackson, and Humphries.  This year it's Evans, Godwin, and Perriman.  Godwin is going to be a starter all the time now - hence, he's taking over for one of those mouth's.  I do find it interesting on your apparent take on Perriman.  He's been a legit bust in the NFL.  He failed to produce with Flacco, whom should have been a perfect fit, and then failed to be productive in Cleveland... to the point where they didn't even want him to be their 4th WR... yet, you seem to think he's going to command a lot of targets.

 

Uh, you brought up catch%, not me.  Lockett, no, nothing changes.  I never said Lockett can't catch.  I said that the team's philosophy is to run, then run again, and then run some more... then pass.  Lockett's probably going to see some more targets and catches, but not a lot, and his touchdown total is likely to come down.  In the end, I think he'll be no different than last year.  He's in a very limited situation.  It's not his fault, just where he's at.

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Exactly the same? 

 

I disagree I think Mike Evans is Mike Evans and Adam Thielen is Adam Thielen. 

 

You’ve been so busy arguing with me that you haven’t offered anything to this thread. Who is the guy you just simply do not want to draft? 

When I said exactly the same, I'm talking about the situation.  I'm pretty confident that you knew that.

 

Well, based on your reasoning for who you won't be drafting... if who you WILL be drafting come from the same rationale, then I'd say that anyone on your "must target" list are the guys that will be on my "do not want" list.

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On 8/19/2019 at 10:17 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

With respect to Godwin, I don't discount the fact that he could be a bust, but the reasoning that you lay out seems rather implausible.

  • "...a lot of mouths to feed" - The Bucs actually have LESS mouths than last year.  Both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are gone and they were only replaced by Breshad Perriman.
    • Jackson and Humphries accounted for 179 targets.  The Bucs threw the ball 625 times.  If you think Tampa's defense is going to be that much better than last year, let's say they throw the ball 575 times this year.  OJ Howard saw only 48 targets.  Let's bump him up to 90.  So of the 179 targets that left, we eliminated 50 from the overall total and bumped Howard up 40, leaving about 90 targets unaccounted for.  Who's getting them?  With more mouths to feed and less available targets, Godwin saw 95 targets last year.  I don't see how an argument can be made for anything less than a 20-30 target INCREASE.
  • "...below average QB" - I think virtually everyone here has the same opinion as you about Winston being below average.  That said, you're reasoning seems flawed if you're going by "throwing the ball".  Winston's completion percentage went up every year.  His yards per attempt over the last 2 years is 7.9.  Yes, he throw's INT's, no one is going to debate that.  But if the Bucs throw the ball 575 times and Winston doesn't improve on the 64.6% and 7.9 ypa, he's going to throw for 4500 yards.  If his TD% is his career average at 4.6%, that's 27 TD's.  Technically, with a significantly better coach and system, you'd have to think that Winston, after 4 years of improvement, will totally collapse.  To me, that's highly unlikely.

It is also worth noting that a bad QB isnt always bad for fantasy.

Winston is a bad QB because he throws too many INT's.   This is a bad stat for QB's but does not affect the draftability of the WR's on his team.

at the end of the day if he targets your man 140 times and your man catches 90 of those 140, he is gonna have good stats regardless of how crappy the fantasy QB actually is and regardless of how many INT's he throws.

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8 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

It is also worth noting that a bad QB isnt always bad for fantasy.

Winston is a bad QB because he throws too many INT's.   This is a bad stat for QB's but does not affect the draftability of the WR's on his team.

at the end of the day if he targets your man 140 times and your man catches 90 of those 140, he is gonna have good stats regardless of how crappy the fantasy QB actually is and regardless of how many INT's he throws.

EXACTLY!  Full honesty, Winston isn't a "bad" QB... he's about average.  He does throw a lot of picks, but he does make some really great throws.  He has drives and full games where he's completely flawless.  The problem is, those games and drives have always been inconsistent.  He misses wide open receivers, more than he should.  He doesn't take the easy option with the idea that the pass catcher needs to make a play, no where near enough.  He's not as good at reading defenses that I'd think he should be at, at this point in time and he also doesn't help his line all that much by holding onto the ball too long.  Now, that last sentence is part criticism on Winston, but it's not entirely his fault.  The Bucs have had some bad teaching where offense has been concerned as well as bad talent evaluation and acquisition from the coaches and front office.

As I showed earlier in this post, Winston's 16-game average falls in line with QB's who've been considered as great and/or won Super Bowls.  He's not as bad as many believe he is, like the OP who likes to harp on Winston getting benched last year (after 3 games), because he had a rough start out of the gate... regardless of the fact that he had a limited off-season... and happens to ignore the final 6.5 games where pro-rated, his stats would be 64%/4100/30/9/100.1 rating.  Note, those numbers pro-rated to him playing 7 full games.  If you pro-rate his totals based on 6.5 games, his numbers would be 64%/4450/32/10.

Is he great?  No.  He needs to put a full season together like that first.  He's still inconsistent and needs to take another step in development.  Is he garbage?  No.  He's no where near as bad as others would like you to believe.  He actually falls in the middle... "average".

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Or at the very least how about some insight into whoever is worth drafting at RB on that godforsaken team...

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1 minute ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Can we get passed the Tampa talk? 

What's wrong... don't like fantasy football opinions of whether or not players are worth their ADP?  I mean, it is the topic of the thread by the way.  That's what's going on here.  Is Godwin worth the his draft position?  The OP said no for pretty incomplete reasons to which I called him out on.  I'm not the only one.  It's information that people can use in determining whether they feel Godwin (or any other Tampa player), is a bust or not based on their ADP.


Me, I'd rather see legitimate discussions from people who are more versed in teams than some random persons, random list, based on perception and not reality.

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Off topic, but still Tampa Themed, if you were going to draft one Tampa RB, who would that RB be?

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20 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Or at the very least how about some insight into whoever is worth drafting at RB on that godforsaken team...

Tampa's OLine is very bad at run blocking.  Their defense, until actual evidence says otherwise, it expected to be poor.  Their RB corp is made up of rotational backs who should not see more than a handful of touches per game.  All of those combined point to no RB averaging more than 70 all-purpose yards per game.  In fact, I think 50 - by one player - might be the high on the team.

 

Jones is looking a lot better than last year, but to upgrade on completely worthless like last year, "a lot better" only means he'll actually get a few carries every game.  Right now, Ogunbowale looks to be a viable player as well.  We'll see what happens when he gets playing time in the regular season.

 

I think the most likely scenario, based on how the defense plays, is that Barber will get about 12 carries and a pass target or two a game.  Jones, about half the carries and about 2 or 3 pass targets a game of that... and Ogunbowale getting time here and there with some carries and targets.  I think the best case scenario for fantasy football purposes, Barber is likely to not get more than last year, Jones to get more and Ogunbowale to steal some playing time.  At best, Barber would be a RB4?  Unless Jones or Ogunbowale gets hurt, no RB on this team is worth being drafted. 

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Thanks. Both of those guys are always there in like rd 11 in mocks and I never know which one to pick if either at all.

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Barber is the guy to draft.  With luck, the defense is "average" and will allow Tampa to run more and throw less.  If that happens, Barber could get you about 7 to 10 ppg based on total yards and receptions, with the occasional TD resulting on him being a quality flex start that day.  

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23 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

What's wrong... don't like fantasy football opinions of whether or not players are worth their ADP?  I mean, it is the topic of the thread by the way.  That's what's going on here.  Is Godwin worth the his draft position?  The OP said no for pretty incomplete reasons to which I called him out on.  I'm not the only one.  It's information that people can use in determining whether they feel Godwin (or any other Tampa player), is a bust or not based on their ADP.


Me, I'd rather see legitimate discussions from people who are more versed in teams than some random persons, random list, based on perception and not reality.

That’s certainly not the topic of the thread.

 

a lot of people like Chris Godwin and Kerryon Johnson which has their ADPs higher than I would like, therefore I will not draft them. 

 

I wanted to hear who other people hate hate based on their ADPs but you have certainly hijacked the thread to make it the Chris Godwin and even Jameis winston thread.

 

To say your not biased is funny because you came flying in to defend Godwin when it was never required, if you actually read my OP. 

 

I just wanna hear who everyone is NOT drafting and it became the Godwin/Winston thread.

 

Go Bucs!!!

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21 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Off topic, but still Tampa Themed, if you were going to draft one Tampa RB, who would that RB be?

Ogunbawale with the last pick

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

EXACTLY!  Full honesty, Winston isn't a "bad" QB... he's about average.  He does throw a lot of picks, but he does make some really great throws.  He has drives and full games where he's completely flawless.  The problem is, those games and drives have always been inconsistent.  He misses wide open receivers, more than he should.  He doesn't take the easy option with the idea that the pass catcher needs to make a play, no where near enough.  He's not as good at reading defenses that I'd think he should be at, at this point in time and he also doesn't help his line all that much by holding onto the ball too long.  Now, that last sentence is part criticism on Winston, but it's not entirely his fault.  The Bucs have had some bad teaching where offense has been concerned as well as bad talent evaluation and acquisition from the coaches and front office.

As I showed earlier in this post, Winston's 16-game average falls in line with QB's who've been considered as great and/or won Super Bowls.  He's not as bad as many believe he is, like the OP who likes to harp on Winston getting benched last year (after 3 games), because he had a rough start out of the gate... regardless of the fact that he had a limited off-season... and happens to ignore the final 6.5 games where pro-rated, his stats would be 64%/4100/30/9/100.1 rating.  Note, those numbers pro-rated to him playing 7 full games.  If you pro-rate his totals based on 6.5 games, his numbers would be 64%/4450/32/10.

Is he great?  No.  He needs to put a full season together like that first.  He's still inconsistent and needs to take another step in development.  Is he garbage?  No.  He's no where near as bad as others would like you to believe.  He actually falls in the middle... "average".

or hes an above average QB who wants to be the gunslinger a bit too often. 

Either way, if you want the offensive upside that the QB provides but not the risk(due to INT's), you dont draft the QB, you draft his WR's.   Then the INT's dont affect your bottom line and you can still benefit from the potential upside the QB provides.

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16 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

That’s certainly not the topic of the thread.

No?  I said "...whether or not players are worth their ADP", and just below you said "I wanted to hear who other people hate hate based on their ADPs...".  To you, that's not the same thing?

 

a lot of people like Chris Godwin and Kerryon Johnson which has their ADPs higher than I would like, therefore I will not draft them. 

 

I wanted to hear who other people hate hate based on their ADPs but you have certainly hijacked the thread to make it the Chris Godwin and even Jameis winston thread.

 

To say your not biased is funny because you came flying in to defend Godwin when it was never required, if you actually read my OP. 

I find it funny that you were ok with me giving an emotional opinion about Winston earlier when I said he wasn't all that good (I forget my exact words), and you used that previously as justification on your opinion.  Yet, when I give - what you believe is an emotional opinion - about Godwin, I'm "biased".

 

I just wanna hear who everyone is NOT drafting and it became the Godwin/Winston thread.

You also wanted a reason.  In your opening post you also said why you weren't drafting those players.  People read these posts as information to help make fantasy football decisions.  You laid out faulty reasoning's for a player and I simply replied to let others who read it know that it was faulty.  It became a Godwin/Winston thread because you had weak points that didn't hold water and I called you out on them.  It's not my fault that you brought a knife to a gun fight.

 

Go Bucs!!!

 

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No way I’m reading 3 pages on Goodwin, yet admire the passion to discuss a team’s WR2 for so long. I long for retirement.

 

as for mine, “You like that?” Guy ruined my life last season, in fantasy and in a multitude of side bets. Kirk Cousins can die, so I can eat more cake.

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On 8/26/2019 at 6:11 PM, Matt Mueller said:

Antonio Brown DND 

He’s crossed of my sheet and well below Chris Godwin 

Didn't take a crystal ball to see this one coming

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1 hour ago, Matt Mueller said:

Didn't take a crystal ball to see this one coming

Everyone saw it coming and STILL almost too hard to believe. Seriously what is wrong with this guys head? 

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On 8/29/2019 at 4:30 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

EXACTLY!  Full honesty, Winston isn't a "bad" QB... he's about average.  He does throw a lot of picks, but he does make some really great throws.  He has drives and full games where he's completely flawless.  The problem is, those games and drives have always been inconsistent.  He misses wide open receivers, more than he should.  He doesn't take the easy option with the idea that the pass catcher needs to make a play, no where near enough.  He's not as good at reading defenses that I'd think he should be at, at this point in time and he also doesn't help his line all that much by holding onto the ball too long.  Now, that last sentence is part criticism on Winston, but it's not entirely his fault.  The Bucs have had some bad teaching where offense has been concerned as well as bad talent evaluation and acquisition from the coaches and front office.

As I showed earlier in this post, Winston's 16-game average falls in line with QB's who've been considered as great and/or won Super Bowls.  He's not as bad as many believe he is, like the OP who likes to harp on Winston getting benched last year (after 3 games), because he had a rough start out of the gate... regardless of the fact that he had a limited off-season... and happens to ignore the final 6.5 games where pro-rated, his stats would be 64%/4100/30/9/100.1 rating.  Note, those numbers pro-rated to him playing 7 full games.  If you pro-rate his totals based on 6.5 games, his numbers would be 64%/4450/32/10.

Is he great?  No.  He needs to put a full season together like that first.  He's still inconsistent and needs to take another step in development.  Is he garbage?  No.  He's no where near as bad as others would like you to believe.  He actually falls in the middle... "average".

Well the important QB stats have him as a below average QB.  Which is fine.  It’s okay.  You can say it.  He’s below average.  Say the words. Let the healing begin.  

 

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56 minutes ago, Kent said:

Well the important QB stats have him as a below average QB.  Which is fine.  It’s okay.  You can say it.  He’s below average.  Say the words. Let the healing begin.  

 

What stats are those?  Over the last 2 years (22 games), among QB's who've played at least 20 games...

Yeah, his turnovers have to come down, no one has said otherwise, but the other 4 major components, he's in the ballpark of being in the top 25% or 50% in the league.  ONE stat needing improvement does not make a QB below average.  What are the "...important QB stats have him as a below average QB", that you're referring to?

 

Then, you can explain to me why in his last 7 games last year, where he was 148-230 (64.35%), for 1,811 yards (7.9 ypa), 13 TD (5.7%), 4 Int (1.7%), and 100.11 passer rating was just a fluke and not a sign of improvement.

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The nfl rated him the 18th best based on stats.  Maybe QBr. 

Thats below average.  Just say the words. You’ll feel better. 

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He is a really interesting case, ranked 24th in QB rating behind Nick Mullens, Mariota, and Eli. However he is 8th in Total QBR the ESPN creation that measures a whole bunch of stuff, Put them together and you get about a league average QB, which feels about right.

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5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

He is a really interesting case, ranked 24th in QB rating behind Nick Mullens, Mariota, and Eli. However he is 8th in Total QBR the ESPN creation that measures a whole bunch of stuff, Put them together and you get about a league average QB, which feels about right.

24th. It’s worse than I thought. 

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33 minutes ago, Kent said:

The nfl rated him the 18th best based on stats.  Maybe QBr. 

Thats below average.  Just say the words. You’ll feel better. 

Based on WHAT stats?  Passer rating?

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Please break down your boy Winston’s performance today Tbay. My god he looks awful but I’m sure you can find some stats to say he isn’t awful.

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As I stated earlier, Winston is simply not smart enough to run this offence.  he is below average

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And this from a guy up here in the North..  I can see it from here, not sure what TbayXXXVII is watching.

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In reference to my OP

 

A TD saved Godwin’s day but my fears with Winston feel pretty much confirmed. Evans won’t be shutout every week and Brate had 2 TDs taken away by penalties. Winston stinks, I’m avoiding like the plague but keeping my eyes on Brate on the WW.

 

Also Kerryon same fears confirmed. Lions up comfortably all game and this guy gets barely any run. CJA on the field about 50/50. 

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I think Winston will get better as the season progresses and continues to learn the new system. 

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18 minutes ago, Canadianfan said:

And this from a guy up here in the North..  

We can tell by the way you spelled "offence". 

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56 minutes ago, SUXBNME said:

We can tell by the way you spelled "offence". 

  I'm not too concerned about grammer in fantasy football websites.  

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1 hour ago, Canadianfan said:

  I'm not too concerned about grammer in fantasy football websites.  

Being that you're from Canada, this does not surprise me. 

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On 9/8/2019 at 5:42 PM, Canadianfan said:

  I'm not too concerned about grammer in fantasy football websites.  

Cheers was pretty overrated. Do not draft.

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On 9/8/2019 at 7:38 PM, BuschWack said:

I think Winston will get better as the season progresses and continues to learn the new system. 

Easy to say he’ll get better from 1 TD and 2 pick 6s.

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9 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Easy to say he’ll get better from 1 TD and 2 pick 6s.

🤣 My bold prediction this year.

  • Haha 1

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