Thielen or Diggs?

[RedzoneMonster 102]

Thielen was a beast first half 2018 and Diggs was just ok. 2nd half Thielen died and Diggs got better.  Everyone says due to OC change and diff philosophy.  Who do you draft first this year and why?

[tanatastic 2,061]

I still like Theilan in ppr but can’t really say why, they are both good.

[phins1921 10]

Thielen imo is the better option

[JediMaster 20]

Thielen over Diggs. I think both will have a down year with Cook having better numbers this year.

[Djgb13 2,338]

Had thielen last year along with Michael Thomas. That combo was legit and if I had to do it this year I’d take thielen again. He’s gonna get the targets 

[RedzoneMonster 102]

7 minutes ago, JediMaster said:

Thielen over Diggs. I think both will have a down year with Cook having better numbers this year.

Would you take guys like Golladay and Godwin over both of them?  That’s my dilemma.  

[Gepetto 979]

1 hour ago, RedzoneMonster said:

Would you take guys like Golladay and Godwin over both of them?  That’s my dilemma.  

I had Thielen and Golladay last year.

 

I'd take Thielen, then Diggs, then....  Golladay, then Godwin.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Go with Diggs.

You have to go with the guy the OC setting up the offense around in the passing game.

Based on the game last year...it's Diggs.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

4 hours ago, tanatastic said:

I still like Theilan in ppr but can’t really say why, they are both good.

I am a thielen guy because he seems more consistent than diggs in ppr.

[LaChup 154]

You guys are all hooked on a Thielen?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Whenever I watch Diggs he looks like he is one of the better wrs in the NFL but they just don't use him enough.   Seems he should be better 

[LaChup 154]

You seem like you're Diggsing him a little more than Thielen?

[Donkey 34]

I'd lean Diggs. Thielen tailed off last year with the new OC.

[LaChup 154]

You have to Diggs down deep to find the floor, but one has a higher Thielen.

[Maulers1973 117]

Didn't the Vikings address their offensive line in the offseason?  I'm expecting a slight uptick for Cousins.  That to me means that Thielen should come close to last year's overall numbers.   Plus, Cook is made of glass.   

[loonecho 19]

Minnesota homer here. Both are superb route runners, but Thielen's hands are second to none. Cousins has immense confidence in him. Adam is bigger at 6'2" and yet deceptively fast. And his drive to be the best was born from small town upbringing and being undrafted from a small D2 college. Both should rightfully come off the board within a few picks of each other. But I would take Thielen first.

Disclaimer: My wife's parents were close friends with Adam's grandparents. And her brothers were friends with Adam's dad while growing up. 

[LaChup 154]

I'm know Diggs' dog's gardener's babysitter's cousin-in-law, and he says take Thielen also.

[polecatt 399]

Thielen, he's been better for the past couple of seasons

[weepaws 2,452]

Would agree with polecatt, and a big welcome back polecatt, good to see you return. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

On 8/19/2019 at 3:08 PM, RedzoneMonster said:

Would you take guys like Golladay and Godwin over both of them?  That’s my dilemma.  

I'd rank them as such...

1. Thielen - He's clearly the best WR in this group
2. Godwin - Will get tons of targets
3. Diggs - While both he and Godwin are their teams #2 passing option, the Vikings will be able to run the ball more and they won't NEED to pass as much.
4. Golladay - I don't trust their offense

[weepaws 2,452]

No way can you in your right mind take Godwin over either one. 

I think I like Godwin fourth out of that group.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

23 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No way can you in your right mind take Godwin over either one. 

I think I like Godwin fourth out of that group.  

 

Diggs probably maxed out last year, as Cook wasn't healthy.  I highly doubt that the Vikings get to 600 pass attempts this year with a healthy Cook.  The targets won't be there like last year.  Plus, he himself misses time due to injuries.  With the 149 pass targets, he got 264 points in PPR leagues (1.66 points per target - including rushes).

With 95 targets, Godwin had 185 points in a ppr league on 95 targets (1.95 points per target).  Tampa has a crappy OLine, can't run, and has a bad defense.  Godwin is likely to increase his target share by about 30% (or more), with the loss of Humphries and Jackson.

Honestly, I can't really see an argument in favor of Diggs over Godwin.

 

[weepaws 2,452]

I don’t see any argument either, I don’t even see Godwin over Golladay. 

I see a lot of assuming in that post, let’s assume that the Vikings throw less, Thielen and Diggs our the only two good targets Cousins as. 

Now doesn’t Cooks also miss time because of injury, or is that just Diggs? 

Also let’s not forget that Howard is due back, again, and he’s going to be another target, plus keep your eye on B Perriman , he’s going to be a good one, I’ve heard some good things about him this offseason, if he gets his head on right he can be another big time target .  

And I don’t know if I I agree that Godwin’s target total will increase by 30% or by any amount. 

No argument from me, Diggs easly over  Godwin. 

Hey thanks great chat. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

I don’t see any argument either, I don’t even see Godwin over Golladay. 

I see a lot of assuming in that post, let’s assume that the Vikings throw less, Thielen and Diggs our the only two good targets Cousins as. 

Now doesn’t Cooks also miss time because of injury, or is that just Diggs? 

Also let’s not forget that Howard is due back, again, and he’s going to be another target, plus keep your eye on B Perriman , he’s going to be a good one, I’ve heard some good things about him this offseason, if he gets his head on right he can be another big time target .  

And I don’t know if I I agree that Godwin’s target total will increase by 30% or by any amount. 

No argument from me, Diggs easly over  Godwin. 

Hey thanks great chat. 

I know, the following is TL/DR, but if you want analysis and point of view instead of "no, you're wrong", it's not going to be short.

 

First, let's start with Minnesota.  Both Diggs and Cook are injury risks.  That said, if we assume 1 is healthy, we must assume both are.  If both are, Cook will be more involved and Diggs (and Theilen), will be less involved because Minnesota will run more often.  The more the run, the more they control the clock, the less they have to throw.  That is Football 101.  They have a very good defense and a good offensive line.  Under Mike Zimmer, Minnesota has thrown the ball around 550 times per season... last year it was 608.  Odds are, last year was the anomaly and they're likely to attempt less passes and run more often.  To me, thinking that Diggs will approach 150 targets again is highly unlikely.  I'm thinking 125 is probably where he'll land.

 

I'm a big fan of Kenny Golladay, but not a fan of the Lions... in the sense of their offense.  That team is very enigmatic.  One week they'll put up 40, then next, just 3... and the kicker is that the 40 point game will come against the better defense!  When you look at what Golladay did after the Golden Tate trade, I don't think you can look at that as positive.  Sure, he had a few big games, but he also had the same amount of "did he play today?" games.  Apparently Stafford was hurt last year and struggled.  I expect him to be more efficient, so that would bode well for Golladay.  That said, I look for the Lions to run the ball more.  Stafford only attempted 550 passes last season, I'd expect that to be similar this season, so I really don't see where Golladay will get much of a bump.  Also, Golladay is a bit of an injury risk too, as he's missed a bit of time each season.  To add to that, Golladay is going to be the #1 target.  I don't think we've seen enough production from Golladay in that role to be confident that he'll really be any better than last year.

 

I am enamored with the knock on Godwin that some people have.  It's like they just want to take a contrarian point of view and come up with some cockamamie reason.  Oh, I don't trust Winston.  Tampa is going to run more.  They have too many mouths to feed.  They're going to stink.  Blah, blah, blah.  In the end, there is no legitimate aspect you can point to in order to justify your stance.  As I said in another post, unless you think that Godwin isn't a good receiver, the information that's out there points to Godwin being a 85+ catch, 1200+ yard, 8+ TD receiver.  Why?  I'll tell you why....

Tampa will throw the ball over 600 times this season and it's not even debatable.  They have NO running game.  They CAN'T run block.  They have a BAD defense.  They will throw A LOT, every game.  They won't blow anyone out to where they throw the ball 25 times and run it 40.  Their pass:run ration will be something like 38:22 every game... and it might be even more lopsided than that (last year they were 39:24 - and that's only because Winston and Fitzpatrick had 85 rushing attempts between them... that WON'T happen again).

We all know Winston throws Int's, but he's not really any worse than he was in the past.  Last year, you may look at it and mention that he had 14 Int's in 11 games.  But if you look deeper, you'll see that 10 of them came in the first 4.  He only threw 4 Int's in his last 7 games.  The obvious rebuttal that I've heard against that was, that 7 games is a small sample size.  Well, here's a bigger one that I give.  The prior season, he only threw 11 in 13 games.  So now you have 20 out of 24 games, where he's thrown 15 Int's.  Now, to you, that may seem like a lot.  But when you throw the ball 35+ times a game, it's not.  If you take out his 1st 4 games from last year, he has a 2.23% Int percentage over a 20 game span.  Let's look at last year to compare that 2.23% number to.  Roethlisberger and Rivers were at 2.4 and at 2.1 was Mahommes and Luck.  Now, of course "cherry picking" is what I hear, but to that I say, give me a list of QB's who were suspended for the first 3 games of a season, had limited practice time in the pre-season because of it, then came out and lit the world on fire... then I'll revise my stance.

The too many mouth's to feed argument is bull also.  Last year there were more!  Humphries and Jackson are gone and were replaced by only Breshad Perriman.  Whoopie!  Breshad Perriman had only 60 balls thrown to him... TOTAL in the last 2 years.  If you expect anything more than 50 targets, you're not being realistic.  O.J. Howard?  Sure, he could get 90 targets this season... up from 48 last year.  But you know what's more likely?  Him getting hurt... again, and missing time, for the 3rd year in a row.  He missed 2 games his rookie season and 6 last year.  Still, let's say he get's an extra 40 targets and Perriman gets 50.  That's 90 new targets.  Humphries and Jackson combined for 180 last year.  Who's getting the 90?  Everyone else except for Godwin?  Nope, don't think so.  Godwin's snap count is going to jump big time.  Barring injury (which of everyone mentioned so far - Godwin is the only one who's never missed a game due to injury - knock on wood), he's likely to see 130+ targets.

Tampa won't run the ball more, because they can't actually do it.  Barber and Jones are both below average RB's running behind a below average offensive line.  Last year, their 3 top rushers, Barber, Rodgers, and Jones averaged 3.5 yards per carry.  Tampa ranked 31st in yards per attempt last year.  They're not going to throw less and run more.  Period.