Pick'em and Survival League??

[Reality 2,710]

On 9/28/2019 at 10:24 PM, riversco said:

I didn't see this thread because the title was vague so I skipped it.  Oh well.

League thoughts:

When picking NFL games, you first select the teams with good QBs and a defense that gets pressure on the QB.  The teams that do both are super bowl contenders.  The list can change as injuries occur or players break out.  Right now we've got 7 of them.  Patriots, Browns, Bills, Rams, 49ers and Packers and the Saints (with Drew Brees).  One of those 7 should win the super bowl.  The Bills are surprising me but Josh Allen is playing well and the defense is really getting pressure on QBs.  Bills are a sleeper team.  The Browns are better than what they've looked but they've faced a lot of pressure teams.  The Chiefs are a favorite but honestly the defense has fallen off a cliff.  Last year the Chiefs were able to bring lots of pressure on other QBs.  This year they are getting no pressure at all.  The Seahawks I liked last year but they are getting no pressure this year.  The Chargers are breaking my heart here because despite what looks on paper to be a stellar pass rush group, they can't pressure QBs at all.  (Case in point, DeShaun Watson had a clean pocket to do whatever he wanted in the second half and the Texans pass protection is weak, so the Texans stunned everyone with a huge comeback win in week 3).  The Eagles pass rush has been struggling as well this year.  The Ravens have a weak pass rush which many overlook.  The Cowboys pass rush has dropped off a cliff this year.  The Lions under Matt Patricia are becoming a bit like the Belichick teams in that they are fundamentally sound, well prepared and disciplined, and that is overcoming sometimes shaky QB play and a lack of pass rush and they sit at 2-0-1.  I'd be interested in seeing what Patricia could do with some more talented players but that is a discussion for another year.

Redskins+3 @ Giants - Redskins 6 - Daniel Jones first taste of strong NFL pass rush
Chargers @ Dolphins+14 - Chargers 14
Panthers+4.5 @ Texans - Panthers 1 - I'll just take the points
Chiefs @ Lions+7 - Chiefs 13 - take the Chiefs when they face a team with no pass rush
Raiders+6.5 @ Colts - Colts 7
Patriots @ Bills+7 - Patriots 9
Titans+3.5 @ Falcons - Falcons 8
Browns+7 @ Ravens - Browns 12 - take the Browns when they face a team with no pass rush
Buccanneers+9 @ Rams - Rams 10
Seahawks @ Cardinals+5 - Cardinals 5
Jaguars+2.5 @ Broncos - Broncos 2
Vikings+1 @ Bears - Vikings 3
Cowboys @ Saints+2 - Saints 11 - Dak can't handle that pass rush & Cowboys have no pass rush
Bengals+3 @ Steelers - Steelers 4

 

Well, you had the Browns pick correct.

[fandandy 3,311]

I forgot to pick Thursday's game again but would have picked GB so it really didn't matter.  On the rest, yesterday morning I flipped a nickel.  Heads was the favorite.

This was my best week.  

[avoiding injuries 1,220]

If nothing else, this confirms I’d be a terrible gambler. 

[Voltaire 4,550]

Week One - Philadelphia (Washington)

Week Two - Cleveland (@NY Jets)

Week Three - Dallas (Miami)

Week Four - Los Angeles Chargers (Miami)

Week Five - New England Patriots (@Washington)

Week Six - Baltimore Ravens (Cincinnati)

[JustinCharge 2,397]

On 9/30/2019 at 7:00 AM, Reality said:

Well, you had the Browns pick correct.

Home teams went 4-11 this week which is rare.  I accept bad weeks when that happens.

[Voltaire 4,550]

On ‎10‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 12:43 PM, Voltaire said:

Week One - Philadelphia (Washington)

Week Two - Cleveland (@NY Jets)

Week Three - Dallas (Miami)

Week Four - Los Angeles Chargers (Miami)

Week Five - New England Patriots (@Washington)

Week Six - Baltimore Ravens (Cincinnati)

Week five was a gimme. I surely would have been better off this past week saving NEP for a rainy day and taking Houston over Atlanta. I would have been right but, obviously, I just didn't have the balls. A good team, this was one of Houston's best matchup games of the season too.

Sticking with Baltimore in six and still unsure about seven.

In seven, I'm looking at Buffalo. Buffalo is plenty good enough to feel comfortable picking. They have a couple of dumpster fires on tap in the near future. This was supposed to be the Packers but I've learned that Jokeland isn't such a joke after all. If I don't take Buffalo in seven, it's because I'm saving them for week nine. Miami is a disaster but the Jets are a near disaster themselves and I don't know that I trust them enough to beat Miami in 9. Jags are a 7 option too.

 

[bostonlager 2,457]

On 10/1/2019 at 8:47 PM, avoiding injuries said:

If nothing else, this confirms I’d be a terrible gambler. 

Not really. If you're going to wager you aren't going to pick all 14-16 games on the schedule. The best way to run one of these involving the spread is to start everyone out with imaginary $1000 and you pick and choose which games you want to play and for how much each week. 

[nzoner 936]

2 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Not really. If you're going to wager you aren't going to pick all 14-16 games on the schedule. The best way to run one of these involving the spread is to start everyone out with imaginary $1000 and you pick and choose which games you want to play and for how much each week. 

I'm sitting at 17 games over 500,I guarantee if I were to start betting for real again it'd be 17 under 500 in no time.

[Voltaire 4,550]

1 minute ago, nzoner said:

I'm sitting at 17 games over 500,I guarantee if I were to start betting for real again it'd be 17 under 500 in no time.

It was nice when I was the only focker over .500 then you can out of nowhere and aren't falling back down again.

 

[nzoner 936]

4 minutes ago, Voltaire said:

It was nice when I was the only focker over .500 then you can out of nowhere and aren't falling back down again.

 

Tis a long season my friend,give me time

 

BTW it's 15 over I was looking at another game.

[edjr 5,538]

32 minutes ago, Voltaire said:

Week five was a gimme.

 

Balt wn in OT    What a gimmie!

[Voltaire 4,550]

19 hours ago, edjr said:

Balt wn in OT    What a gimmie!

five was Pats by a bajillion over Washington.

Six is baltimore.

[Voltaire 4,550]

On 10/2/2019 at 12:43 PM, Voltaire said:

Week One - Philadelphia (Washington)

Week Two - Cleveland (@NY Jets)

Week Three - Dallas (Miami)

Week Four - Los Angeles Chargers (Miami)

Week Five - New England Patriots (@Washington)

Week Six - Baltimore Ravens (Cincinnati)

 

Some good ones this week. I'm going to save Buffalo, this isn't the only gimme they have in the near future. Originally, Green Bay was penciled in here, and I still think they'll win but Oakland doesn't look to be the joke I thought they were and I don't want to tempt fate. Meanwhile, the Redskins are the joke they appear to be... so I'll take the 49ers here. 

Week 7 - San Francisco 49ers (@Washington) 

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Well, I'm out. This was a brutal week. Should gave planned ahead and saved someone. Probably would have just saved the cowboys and been bounced anyway. 

[Voltaire 4,550]

The balls on Fandandy going with Washington. Following Miami is a good strategy but in this case, it was time to bail for me because an almost equally good alternate strategy would be to follow Washington.

[Voltaire 4,550]

50 minutes ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Well, I'm out. This was a brutal week. Should gave planned ahead and saved someone. Probably would have just saved the cowboys and been bounced anyway. 

I wouldn't have liked taking Atlanta. I'm just now getting use to wrapping my head around Atlanta sucking this year.

I'm still kicking myself over Atlanta at Houston. Houston is a good team with a brutal schedule and and that home game against Atlanta looked really good as their easiest win but ...ah... I didn't have the balls. I just wasn't ready to discount Atlanta that badly yet in week five. Then when Houston rung them up by over twenty, I was kicking myself. By not taking Houston there, I may not take them all year, and that's essentially throwing away one of the top teams in the league.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

30 minutes ago, Voltaire said:

I wouldn't have liked taking Atlanta. I'm just now getting use to wrapping my head around Atlanta sucking this year.

I'm still kicking myself over Atlanta at Houston. Houston is a good team with a brutal schedule and and that home game against Atlanta looked really good as their easiest win but ...ah... I didn't have the balls. I just wasn't ready to discount Atlanta that badly yet in week five. Then when Houston rung them up by over twenty, I was kicking myself. By not taking Houston there, I may not take them all year, and that's essentially throwing away one of the top teams in the league.

Houston gets Tennessee twice. If you make it that far. 

[Voltaire 4,550]

Just now, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Houston gets Tennessee twice. If you make it that far. 

They have nice matchups the week Miami goes to Indy and again when Washington goes to Green Bay. I'm taking Indy and Green Bay. I'm not ready to write off Tennessee just yet. If they go on a 4-5 game losing streak can change my mind.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

47 minutes ago, Voltaire said:

They have nice matchups the week Miami goes to Indy and again when Washington goes to Green Bay. I'm taking Indy and Green Bay. I'm not ready to write off Tennessee just yet. If they go on a 4-5 game losing streak can change my mind.

Tennessee is done. They benched mariota yesterday. Lots of locker room griping. The defense is still very good, but the offense is freaking nonexistent. I mean christ, they have a top six scoring defense, and a plus five turnover ratio, and a losing record. 

They'll beat the brakes off the odd bad team (see Atlanta) but they won't win many more. 

[Voltaire 4,550]

2 hours ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Tennessee is done. They benched mariota yesterday. Lots of locker room griping. The defense is still very good, but the offense is freaking nonexistent. I mean christ, they have a top six scoring defense, and a plus five turnover ratio, and a losing record. 

They'll beat the brakes off the odd bad team (see Atlanta) but they won't win many more. 

My sympathies. And thanks for the heads up. I hadn’t realized things had gone so off track there.

I plot out the whole year because, having run the table once, the year of the Ravens/SF Super Bowl, every year now, I want to do it again. First I look at who Miami, NYJ, Washington, and Cincy are playing. Then, if that doesn't work, I'll look at new additions  to the toilet in Atlanta and Denver. Oakland and Arizona use to be on the list of bad teams to ponder but I removed them because I don't think they're so bad anymore. Then if that doesn't work, I'll see what top teams like the Pats and KCC are up to.

Tennessee, to this point, hasn't (yet) been a team that I'm down on, but the list is fluid. If they had a home game against one of the basement four, that's the sort of thing that I'm looking for and I'd pick them if I liked them better than other matchups.. 0 

8 ) Minnesota (Wash) 9) Buffalo (Wash) 10) Indy (Miami) 11) Carolina (Atlanta) 12) This is f*cked up. It was supposed to be Cleveland at home vs Miami, but due to a gltich in week two when I wanted Baltimore but it didn't register and so I needed to scramble and take Cleveland on MNF, and which is the same reason why I now need the forums to keep up. The entire schedule is wrapped around week 12. Whoever is best of Pitt, Det, TB, Oak, or Chicago.  Buffalo would be good here if I take KCC week 9. 13) NOS (Atl) 14 (Green Bay (Wash) 15) NYG (Miami) 16) Seattle (AZ) 17 LAR (AZ) 

Now, with what you're telling me, that week  17 with Tennessee at Houston, I'm starting to like better than AZ at LAR and finish out. I'll have KCC to insert... maybe in 9 so Bufalo slips to 12.

[Voltaire 4,550]

Week One - Philadelphia Eagles (Washington)

Week Two - Cleveland Browns (@NY Jets)

Week Three - Dallas Cowboys (Miami)

Week Four - Los Angeles Chargers (Miami)

Week Five - New England Patriots (@Washington)

Week Six - Baltimore Ravens (Cincinnati)

Week Seven - San Francisco 49ers (@Washington) 

----------

Week Eight - Minnesota Vikings (Washington)

[fandandy 3,311]

1 hour ago, Voltaire said:

Week One - Philadelphia Eagles (Washington)

Week Two - Cleveland Browns (@NY Jets)

Week Three - Dallas Cowboys (Miami)

Week Four - Los Angeles Chargers (Miami)

Week Five - New England Patriots (@Washington)

Week Six - Baltimore Ravens (Cincinnati)

Week Seven - San Francisco 49ers (@Washington) 

----------

Week Eight - Minnesota Vikings (Washington)

Noted.  We all squeaked by today.  

[Voltaire 4,550]

Week nine is probably Buffalo unless I save them for eleven. I dunno. I kinda want to take the Jets here because the Dolphins are so pathetic but it's a road game for them.

Ten is Indy.

See if I pass on Buffalo in nine I can take them against Miami in 11. Taking Miami three weeks in a row is a sound strategy,  but since one of those three is Jets on the road, I'm not sure I like that. Oakland with Cincy could work or Atlanta  and Carolina. It's just... at the beginning of the year I'd thought Oakland would suck but they haven't. But what if I was right about them and they secretly suck enough to lose to Cincy? Same in reverse with Atlanta. I thought they would be good. I don't trust that they really do suck as much as they look like they suck. What if they get their act together against Carolina? Is Carolina really as good as this winning streak indicates? I dunno.

See, I trust Indy to win in 10 and I trust Buffalo to win both 9 and 11. But my decision is... do I take the Jets in 9 or do I take Oakland in 11 or Carolina in 11? Rams are also an option in 11, they have a home game against Chicago.

Don't put me down for anything now. If I'm still uncertain after this week, I'll take Buffalo 9 then Indy 10, and that'll buy me time to take a pulse of how the situation develops in 8, 9, and 10 before deciding on 11.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

2 minutes ago, Voltaire said:

Week nine is probably Buffalo unless I save them for eleven. I dunno. I kinda want to take the Jets here because the Dolphins are so pathetic but it's a road game for them.

Ten is Indy.

See if I pass on Buffalo in nine I can take them against Miami in 11. Taking Miami three weeks in a row is a sound strategy,  but since one of those three is Jets on the road, I'm not sure I like that. Oakland with Cincy could work or Atlanta  and Carolina. It's just... at the beginning of the year I'd thought Oakland would suck but they haven't. But what if I was right about them and they secretly suck enough to lose to Cincy? Same in reverse with Atlanta. I thought they would be good. I don't trust that they really do suck as much as they look like they suck. What if they get their act together against Carolina? Is Carolina really as good as this winning streak indicates? I dunno.

See, I trust Indy to win in 10 and I trust Buffalo to win both 9 and 11. But my decision is... do I take the Jets in 9 or do I take Oakland in 11 or Carolina in 11? Rams are also an option in 11, they have a home game against Chicago.

Don't put me down for anything now. If I'm still uncertain after this week, I'll take Buffalo 9 then Indy 10, and that'll buy me time to take a pulse of how the situation develops in 8, 9, and 10 before deciding on 11.

I'd take Carolina in 11. The falcons are absolute garbage.

The jets @ Miami might be the only chance Miami has to win a game all year. I'd avoid that one. 

[posty 2,295]

Just now, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

I'd take Carolina in 11. The falcons are absolute garbage.

The jets @ Miami might be the only chance Miami has to win a game all year. I'd avoid that one. 

The Dolphins play the Bengals at home in week 16...

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

1 minute ago, posty said:

The Dolphins play the Bengals at home in week 16...

OK. I'd avoid that one too. 

[Voltaire 4,550]

On 10/25/2019 at 11:18 PM, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

I'd take Carolina in 11. The falcons are absolute garbage.

The jets @ Miami might be the only chance Miami has to win a game all year. I'd avoid that one. 

Miami gets the Bengals in week 16, there's a pretty decent chance that they both come in at 0-14. The Jets at home against the Dolphins are a better pick than the Jet on the road against them, but that'll be the week that Washington goes to Green Bay.

[Voltaire 4,550]

10, 13, and 14 are the only true locks on this list but tentatively... 

9) Washington @ Buffalo

10) Miami @ Indianapolis

11) Atlanta @ Carolina

12) NY Giants @ Chicago This was supposed to be Miami @ Cleveland  but I had to emergency pick Cleveland on MNF in week two when my Baltimore pick didn't register.

13) New Orleans @ Atlanta

14) Washington @ Green Bay

15) Miami @ NY Giants  (if the Giants still looking like turds, KCC is playing Denver this week)

16) Arizona @ Seattle

17) Houston at Tennessee / Kansas City at LA Chargers / LA Rams at Arizona / Denver at Oakland

17) Looks like KC since Mahomes should easily be back by then, but it could also be that they're resting their starters or that I take KC in 15, if so, one of these other games

 

[Voltaire 4,550]

Week One - Philadelphia Eagles (Washington)

Week Two - Cleveland Browns (@NY Jets)

Week Three - Dallas Cowboys (Miami)

Week Four - Los Angeles Chargers (Miami)

Week Five - New England Patriots (@Washington)

Week Six - Baltimore Ravens (Cincinnati)

Week Seven - San Francisco 49ers (@Washington) 

Week Eight - Minnesota Vikings (Washington)

---------

Week Nine - Buffalo Bills (Washington)

[Voltaire 4,550]

Holy Hell. nzoner had a bad week. That's the week of my nightmares. My goodness.

 

[nzoner 936]

6 hours ago, Voltaire said:

Holy Hell. nzoner had a bad week. That's the week of my nightmares. My goodness.

 

I told you on October 7th in this thread to give me time

[Voltaire 4,550]

8 minutes ago, nzoner said:

I told you on October 7th in this thread to give me time

I remember. 

[Voltaire 4,550]

to reiterate:

Week Nine - Buffalo Bills (Washington)

 

[fandandy 3,311]

4 hours ago, Voltaire said:

to reiterate:

Week Nine - Buffalo Bills (Washington)

 

Gotcha.

[fandandy 3,311]

I think I might have screwed the pooch by picking the Jets.  

[fandandy 3,311]

Next week I'm choosing the opposite of what I think.  I would be so broke if I gambled real money.

[nzoner 936]

On 10/28/2019 at 3:52 AM, Voltaire said:

Holy Hell. nzoner had a bad week. That's the week of my nightmares. My goodness.

 

10-1-1 so far this week,I'm coming for ya

[Voltaire 4,550]

You're a yo-yo.

[Voltaire 4,550]

9 hours ago, fandandy said:

I think I might have screwed the pooch by picking the Jets.  

Miami sucks but so do Wahington and the Jets. You caught a break taking Washington on the road at Miami but couldn't catch ligtning twice.

[Voltaire 4,550]

Week One - Philadelphia Eagles (Washington)

Week Two - Cleveland Browns (@NY Jets)

Week Three - Dallas Cowboys (Miami)

Week Four - Los Angeles Chargers (Miami)

Week Five - New England Patriots (@Washington)

Week Six - Baltimore Ravens (Cincinnati)

Week Seven - San Francisco 49ers (@Washington) 

Week Eight - Minnesota Vikings (Washington)

Week Nine - Buffalo Bills (Washington)

--------------

Week Ten - Indianapolis Colts (Miami)

(halfway to the goal)