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polecatt

Fantasy MVP for 2019

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Who is the one player, regardless of position, that will shine over all the others this season.

In 2018 it was Patrick Mahomes

Who will it be in 2019?

 

 

I'll pick Alvin Kamara to have a crazy season

1050 yds, 15 TDs,  93 rec, 960 yds, 6 TD

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It could very well be Mahomes again.

More facts from Matthew Berry:

1. If you took 15 touchdown passes away from Patrick Mahomes last season, he still would have been the No. 1 QB in fantasy.  Or take away 950 passing yards and six touchdown passes.  Or 1,000 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.  Or 62 fantasy points.  He still would have finished as the No. 1 QB in fantasy.

2. The connection of Mahomes to Tyreek Hill last season scored 2.168 points per target.

3. Mahomes to all other Chiefs scored 2.052 points per target.  Matt Ryan was QB2 last season and he averaged 1.942 points per target.

4. Since 2004, there have been six instances in which a QB threw 40-plus TD passes and was not hurt the following season. All of them regressed in terms of fantasy points the following season.  The average of their drop in production was 16.39%.

5. If Mahomes' point total from last season dropped by 16.39%, he would have 348.7 points.

6. Among QBs last season, only Mahomes and Ryan scored more than 348.7 points.

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Yeah, I thought about picking Mahomes again myself, he's as good a pick as any

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I guess it depends on the criteria considered. For Fantasy football MVP, I think value is as important as anything in this debate. Mahomes draft spot made him the MVP last year. His stats are now baked into his draft price, which to me, decreases his case for fantasy MVP unless he exceeds those from last year. I think it's going to be a rookie RB. If Montgomery or Sanders get the primary job, they're going to have a strong case at their draft day price.  If Williams in KC gets hurt or is dethroned by Thompson by the mid season, he's going make a strong run at it.

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Kyler Murray is my top pick

Second it's going to be a running back, probably a rookie, who gets a shot. Whether that be Pollard (doubtful because zeke will for sure be back at some point), Mattison, Singletary, or Montgomery, we will see. 

I wouldn't count a first rounder as an mvp unless it's an earth shattering season. A player that gets drafted before everyone else has a shot at him just isn't considered by me. 

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If you want to bake ADP into MVP, I would pick at each position:

QB:  Jameis Winston.  Top 5 potential, double-digit round ADP.  He's thrown for 300 yards in half of his 22 starts over the past 2 seasons, and now has Arians coaching him.

RB:  Chris Carson.  To a lesser extent now that he's going in the 3rd, but he's still around the 15th RB drafted, and he has the talent and the circumstance to approach the top 5 at his position.  You could still get him in the 5th round not too long ago, and that was a steal for anyone who drafted early.

WR:  Cooper Kupp.  Injuries have been a problem, but he's performed at a top-5 level when healthy, and he's going off the board in the WR15-WR20 range.

TE:  Austin Hooper.  For reasons explained elsewhere, he's also a top-5 candidate with a double-digit ADP.

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Potential Candidates:

QB - Mahomie, regardless of where you drafted him....or Winston

RB - Montgomery, Carson, the Duke, Lat Murray, or Darwin Thompson

WR - Mike Williams, Robby Anderson (if healthy), Curtis Samuel (if Cam Healthy), or Mecole Hardman

TE - Kelce, regardless of where you drafted him....or Waller

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8 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I really think Winston has a cap on his fantasy numbers because he just isn't that good of an NFL qb

He needs to learn to be more accurate, but if INT deductions are minimal, he does get the yardage.

Most 300 yard games in the past 2 seasons:  Goff (13), Big Ben and Ryan (12), Winston (11).

Number of starts in the past 2 seasons:  Ryan (32), Big Ben and Goff (31), Winston (22).

The Cardinals ranked #2 in the NFL in Air Yards per Target under Arians' tenure; now he's coaching Winston...

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1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Who is the one player, regardless of position, that will shine over all the others this season.

In 2018 it was Patrick Mahomes

Who will it be in 2019?

 

 

I'll pick Alvin Kamara to have a crazy season

1050 yds, 15 TDs,  93 rec, 960 yds, 6 TD

Second 

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7 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Kyler Murray is my top pick

Second it's going to be a running back, probably a rookie, who gets a shot. Whether that be Pollard (doubtful because zeke will for sure be back at some point), Mattison, Singletary, or Montgomery, we will see. 

I wouldn't count a first rounder as an mvp unless it's an earth shattering season. A player that gets drafted before everyone else has a shot at him just isn't considered by me. 

I’m on board with K. Murray being the fantasy MVP this year.  Think he’s going to put up some ridiculous numbers in the 2nd half of the season.

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Kamara.

Barring injuries, we might see one of the best RB fantasy seasons ever. 20+ TDs, 2000 total yards, 100 catches is possible with this guy.

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Hunter Henry. One of the ‘other’ tight ends will crack the top three. Or maybe it’s someone even crazier like Waller.

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Blake Bortles

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leaves the jags and Dede weatbrook puts up randy moss like numbers when he played with Culpeper

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I didn't really mean who would be the best bargain, or best based on their ADP, just mainly, who would be the guy who lights it up the most, all season regardless of when or how they were acquired.

That said, everybody had their own take and that's how I expected it to go.

Sometimes it's the sleeper who is on the waiver wire going into week 1 and sometimes it's a guy taken in the early part of the first round.

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3 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I didn't really mean who would be the best bargain, or best based on their ADP, just mainly, who would be the guy who lights it up the most, all season regardless of when or how they were acquired.

That said, everybody had their own take and that's how I expected it to go.

Sometimes it's the sleeper who is on the waiver wire going into week 1 and sometimes it's a guy taken in the early part of the first round.

Thank you for the clarity, but I stand by my answer.

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On 8/30/2019 at 4:45 PM, Frozenbeernuts said:

I really think Winston has a cap on his fantasy numbers because he just isn't that good of an NFL qb

I think that he has a cap on his fantasy numbers due to his horrendous Offensive Line. That line leaks like a sieve and he is going to be running for his life (something that he is not known to be good at) for most of every game. That combined with what appears to be a much improved defense (and the fact that he is not that good at being an NFL QB) should limit the need for him to throw as much as everyone thinks he is going to.

ICEMAN

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20 minutes ago, ICEMAN said:

I think that he has a cap on his fantasy numbers due to his horrendous Offensive Line. That line leaks like a sieve and he is going to be running for his life (something that he is not known to be good at) for most of every game. That combined with what appears to be a much improved defense (and the fact that he is not that good at being an NFL QB) should limit the need for him to throw as much as everyone thinks he is going to.

ICEMAN

Perhaps....but having no running game may dictate differently.

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10 hours ago, ICEMAN said:

I think that he has a cap on his fantasy numbers due to his horrendous Offensive Line. That line leaks like a sieve and he is going to be running for his life (something that he is not known to be good at) for most of every game. That combined with what appears to be a much improved defense (and the fact that he is not that good at being an NFL QB) should limit the need for him to throw as much as everyone thinks he is going to.

ICEMAN

Funny. I think he has a cap on his numbers because he is a stupid human being. He has a big arm. Yaaaaayyyyy. So did Jamarcus Russell. 

I would bet his reading and writing skills are that of a 3rd grader. It is hard to understand the playbook if ya can't read 

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On 8/31/2019 at 12:17 AM, RedzoneMonster said:

Goff. Hear me now, believe me later...

Was on pace for 40 tds last year if Kupp stayed healthy. (Still had 34 total). Has full arsenal of WRs back, all of which are ranked in the top 25-30. Running game is iffy’er now. GREAT schedule - maybe the best for all QBs. Gotten better every year in the league. He’s set up nicely for a monster year.  

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14 minutes ago, RedzoneMonster said:

Was on pace for 40 tds last year if Kupp stayed healthy. (Still had 34 total). Has full arsenal of WRs back, all of which are ranked in the top 25-30. Running game is iffy’er now. GREAT schedule - maybe the best for all QBs. Gotten better every year in the league. He’s set up nicely for a monster year.  

Shhhh, my draft is Wednesday night.

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1 hour ago, Gratefulegg1973 said:

QB:  Wentz

RB:  Zeke

WR:  Hopkins

TE:  Henry

Who else is on your team?

(just hacking on ya)

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David Johnson, I own zero stock in him, but I think he and the cardinals rebound in a big way. 

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Jared Cook. 

That division is setup for shootouts.  TB, ATL, NO, and CAR all have lower tier defenses and decently pass heavy offenses [maybe barring CAR] - keeping the games long (more plays) and the points high.

All it takes is the saints to send 80/120 targets missing from last years players and a 800 yard/10 TD season is not an unreasonable ceiling for him.  If he pilfers a few of kamara's targets to keep him fresh, he could become the top TE in the league.

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Using ADP, mvp’s well under round-5:

QB: Dak. Steady progression over 4 years; he has a great line + zeke, cooper, gallup, etc. He runs a few in too. Great (not elite) numbers most weeks. *Honorable Mention: Fitzmagic in Weeks 1-4...after that, he’ll carry a clipboard.  Honorable Mention: David Jones, for all the reasons we hope & see.

RB: Jordan Howard. Finishes top-15 at the rb position in one of the best nfl offenses. Sorry MS lovers; he has all the talent in the world but he fumbles. He fumbles A LOT. He rides pine after putting several on the deck.  Howard plods-in 13 td’s and catches 40 balls to boot. *Honorable Mention: R.Penny if (if) Carson gets hurt. Tremendous volume just too good for him not to thrive.

WR: C. Samuel: Drinking the preseason kool aid. No worse than 1-b with an aged greg olsen. Cam has a nice come-back. Honorable Mention: C.Kirk. Young gun pal’s in with his young gun QB

TE: Waller. A converted WR and freakish physical specimen. Loving life and football  more than dope & hoes. A.Brown’s renewed love of the Radiers goes the way of his old helmet by week 3. Waller is the new Gronk. *Hon Mention: Gronk, when he un-retires.

PK: Rosas (Giants). Monster leg. Accurate as hell. Past problem is only volume. I think the Gmen get him close enough this season. 

DST: Cowboys. Great schedule to be better than average.  

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