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What's the thoughts on David Montgomery?

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12 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Peer pressure has no effect on Axe Elf, since Axe Elf has no peer.

You said I could name whatever terms I wished in any format and you would gleefully accept.  I am drafting in a $125 High Stakes auction league at RT Sports called "Liquor in Front and Poker in Back" at 8pm ET tonight.  If you would like to keep your word and "gleefully accept," feel free.  If you choose tail-tucking instead, you have no room to call anyone else names.

My projection is that they will be close in fantasy point production, which means I think there is about a 50% chance that Hyde finishes with more points than Montgomery, and a 50% chance that Montgomery finishes with more points than Hyde.  Why would I place a wager on a coin flip, even if I am absolutely certain of my prediction that they will be approximately equal in value?  Now, if I was saying that Hyde would end up with 100 more fantasy points than Montgomery, then you would have reason to suggest a wager based on fantasy point production.

The format obviously meant standard, half-point, of full ppr, not being in an auction league with you. Even a person with the low moral character to impersonate another's identity would know that. I guess you are exposed as just another fool, yapping up on this bored, who likes to write checks his butt can't cash. Don't worry Axe-Elf Impersonator, I will be here to remind you of your gutless predictions regardless...

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Just now, jrokh said:

The format obviously meant standard, half-point, of full ppr, not being in an auction league with you. Even a person with the low moral character to impersonate another's identity would know that. I guess you are exposed as just another fool, yapping up on this bored, who likes to write checks his butt can't cash. Don't worry Axe-Elf Impersonator, I will be here to remind you of your gutless predictions regardless...

Tail-tucking it shall be.

One would think that if you REALLY believed I was an impersonator, the normal survival instinct of terror at the thought of entering a league with Axe Elf would be somewhat abated, so the innate knowledge of the truth must be in there somewhere.

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Any time before kickoff you want to make a real wager, who has more fantasy points between Montgomery and Hyde, I'll even spot you five points. We both know you won't, because you don't even believe your own B.S. Axe-Elf Impersonator...

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6 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Any time before kickoff you want to make a real wager, who has more fantasy points between Montgomery and Hyde, I'll even spot you five points. We both know you won't, because you don't even believe your own B.S. Axe-Elf Impersonator...

Are you even listening to yourself?

"My own B.S." in question is the statement that Hyde and Montgomery will be approximately equal in fantasy value (and I firmly believe that).  So who are you giving five points?  I'm not saying Hyde will have more points, and I'm not saying that Montgomery will have more points.  Giving one or the other "handicap" points only stacks the deck in your favor, making it less likely for them to finish with approximately equal fantasy values.  If you are betting AGAINST my claim, then you have to define what would exceed "approximately equal" fantasy value, and then propose a wager that Hyde and Montgomery will NOT finish with approximately equal fantasy value--such as making the proposition that either Hyde or Montgomery will have, say,  60 more fantasy points than the other.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I don't really think in those terms, just in terms of relative value.

But 250 touches is a lot.  Only 12 NFL RBs exceeded 250 touches last year, and they had names like Elliott, McCaffrey, Kamara, Barkley, Gurley, Johnson and Mixon.  The chances of a rookie RB in a 3-headed backfield getting there is approximately equal to the chances of me bedding Jessica Alba.  Sure, it could happen...  but I'm not holding my breath.

Supposedly she has herpes. Wouldn’t stop me either, though :overhead:

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Howard avg 259 carries and 24 reception in his 3 years there.

250/49 is very reasonable for a young stud that can play 3 downs in the NFL.

Mike Davis is an over-rated journeyman....Cohen is scatback... and AxeElf is often more wrong than right.

There's a reason a running game is so important in the windy city of Chicago.  With an improve defense and a better passing attack, Chicago will need to run out the clock more this season.  Ingore Elf and draft Monty with confidence in round 3/4/5.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Are you even listening to yourself?

"My own B.S." in question is the statement that Hyde and Montgomery will be approximately equal in fantasy value (and I firmly believe that).  So who are you giving five points?  I'm not saying Hyde will have more points, and I'm not saying that Montgomery will have more points.  Giving one or the other "handicap" points only stacks the deck in your favor, making it less likely for them to finish with approximately equal fantasy values.  If you are betting AGAINST my claim, then you have to define what would exceed "approximately equal" fantasy value, and then propose a wager that Hyde and Montgomery will NOT finish with approximately equal fantasy value--such as making the proposition that either Hyde or Montgomery will have, say,  60 more fantasy points than the other.

60 point difference is the roughly the same?!?!?! Like 210 is same as 150?  160 is same as 100?  100 is same as 40?

You know nothing.

 

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2 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

60 point difference is the roughly the same?!?!?! Like 210 is same as 150?  160 is same as 100?  100 is same as 40?

You know nothing.

I'm beginning to think that no one on here has any reading comprehension whatsoever.  I said that a 60 point difference would CONTRADICT the claim that they had approximately equal fantasy value--not that a 60 point difference would SUBSTANTIATE equality.

I know, those are pretty big words.  I fully expect to have to explain this again...

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3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I'm beginning to think that no one on here has any reading comprehension whatsoever.  I said that a 60 point difference would CONTRADICT the claim that they had approximately equal fantasy value--not that a 60 point difference would SUBSTANTIATE equality.

I know, those are pretty big words.  I fully expect to have to explain this again...

So you telling me 59 points would be equal in value? Explain yourself!

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i want shares but cant get any. he keeps going too high. considering him with the 6th pick overall in a 3 man keeper tomorrow but thats irrelavant. 

 

what are we putting his auction value range at?

 

$25 - $30 and $31 is too high?

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1 minute ago, unclemercy said:

i want shares but cant get any. he keeps going too high. considering him with the 6th pick overall in a 3 man keeper tomorrow but thats irrelavant. 

 

what are we putting his auction value range at?

 

$25 - $30 and $31 is too high?

What's the auction budget? 200?

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i think id go to $30 if pushed. i range him around the same as fournette and carson personally maybe freeman if my rb 1/2 budget totals out at $70.

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3 minutes ago, unclemercy said:

i think id go to $30 if pushed. i range him around the same as fournette and carson personally maybe freeman if my rb 1/2 budget totals out at $70.

I'll take all 3 of those guys before Monty.

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I'm beginning to think that no one on here has any reading comprehension whatsoever.  I said that a 60 point difference would CONTRADICT the claim that they had approximately equal fantasy value--not that a 60 point difference would SUBSTANTIATE equality.

I know, those are pretty big words.  I fully expect to have to explain this again...

Ok Axe-Elf-Impersonator. Enough of your circular logic and B.S. What do you consider an acceptable range that would Substantiate equality? Give a specific number, is it within ten points, fifteen, etc...

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14 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Ok Axe-Elf-Impersonator. Enough of your circular logic and B.S. What do you consider an acceptable range that would Substantiate equality? Give a specific number, is it within ten points, fifteen, etc...

59!!!

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Barring injuries there is 0 chance Carlos Hyde will finish the season within 60 points from DM.  0!!!

Carlos Hyde is heading off to his 4th!!..yes, 4th team over the past 12 months.

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2 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

So you telling me 59 points would be equal in value? Explain yourself!

I was just saying that since my claim is that David Montgomery and Carlos Hyde will be approximately equal in fantasy value, for him to meaningfully disagree with me, he would have to define what it would mean to him for them to NOT be approximately equal in fantasy value, in his opinion, and make that proposition as a counter-claim.  I just picked the number 60 randomly.  For him, maybe a difference of 20 fantasy points (1.25 points per week) is a significant difference, but to me, even if Hyde finishes with 20 more fantasy points than Montgomery, they're still approximately equal in fantasy value.  If his degree of disagreement is that Hyde will have only 5 more fantasy points than David Montgomery, then I'm not going to bother arguing the irrelevant difference in our positions.

12 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Ok Axe-Elf-Impersonator. Enough of your circular logic and B.S. What do you consider an acceptable range that would Substantiate equality? Give a specific number, is it within ten points, fifteen, etc...

You're the one disagreeing with me; YOU can define what that disagreement constitutes.  For me, if they're within a couple of points per week of each other (30-35 points on the year), then they're functionally equivalent for fantasy purposes.

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5 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Barring injuries there is 0 chance Carlos Hyde will finish the season within 60 points from DM.  0!!!

Carlos Hyde is heading off to his 4th!!..yes, 4th team over the past 12 months.

Good grief; I LIKE Hyde, but even I wouldn't say that he will finish the season MORE than 60 points ahead of Montgomery.

Yes, Carlos Hyde was the #6 (standard) RB for the first month of 2018 before being traded to Bortlesville (for which the Cleveland coach was eventually fired), but we don't KNOW that he's going to continue that high level of production, even if his QB situation has improved dramatically from Tyrod/Bortles to Deshaun Watson.

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I've been wondering about how this would shake out as Montgomery is about the last RB's that I see as solid RB2's.  He's also got some upside depending on how Mike Davis is utilized.

As mentioned above Cohen & Howard shared 350 carries and 91 receptions between them last year.  Of the remaining 118 carries from that offense, only 11 went to a third RB.  Over 80 went to the QB position.  Unfortunately, given Mitchell's running ability and propensity to do that more than he should I don't see that changing.  So now I think the bears are looking at a pie of 350RB carries that gets sliced 3 ways.

A couple of facts that play into how the pie will get sliced.

  • Mike Davis was very good last year rushing for 4.6 YPC with 112 rushes.  This is comparable to Carson's 4.7 YPC in the same offense, so he's a very capable back.  He only went over 15 carries twice last year so he's probably more a known quantity in a relief role (6-10 carries per game).  He signed a 2 year deal for $6MM.  $3MM guaranteed.  This leads me to believe he's there to play.  If the Bears wanted a backup they could have signed a lesser back assuming they knew they would draft one.
  • The bears traded a productive RB in Howard, paid good money for Davis and drafted a back in the 3rd round.  All this indicates that they were not happy with the RB situation last year. 
  • Other than RB the offense and pieces are generally the same as last year.

So what to do with that info, and how to divide up the bears RB touches.

The first thing I'd speculate on is that Cohen is going to lose a lot of touches.  I'd say at least 1/2 and maybe 2/3 of his rush attempts as there are now 3 viable RB's to feed and both are more suited to a standard running attack than Cohen.  Let's assume we drop him to 40 carries.   I also think the main reason Cohen had 70 receptions last year was largely due to the fact that Howard and Cohen had distinct roles at the RB spot and this telegraphed the offense's intent.  Thus I see his targets drop because he'll be on the field less.  Davis had 40% more receptions than Howard last season and he was probably on the field half as much (35 to 20).  Montgomery is also allegedly a back that catches the ball well.  I'm speculating that Cohen becomes an obvious passing down back only.  I think his time on the field will be greatly reduced and this cuts him down to 40-50 receptions at best.  The bears want players that disguise their intent.  Howard did not and he's gone.  Cohen does not and he'll be relegated to the role he excels at.  If you give Cohen 40 carries and 50 receptions, that's  about half his workload from last year. 

The next issue is figuring out the Davis/Montgomery split of the remaining pie.  Assuming similar play-calling this year there are 310 carries and 40 receptions to divvy up after Cohen gets his 90 touches.  I've got no real basis for this but if you look at the split in Seattle it was 2/3 Carson 1/3 Davis for carries.  I think 1/3 is a minimum for Davis.  Given Montgomery is a rookie RB and Davis appears to have similar skills I'd say 60-40 to 50-50 is likely where it shakes out barring injury. 

The upside for Montgomery is 60% or 185 carries and 25 carries = 210 touches.  The conservative estimate is 155 carries and 20 receptions if you have more of an even split with Davis.  You'd have to project a 75% share of the non-Cohen workload to get to 230 carries and 30 receptions = 260 touches.

I'd really hope for that, but that would require Mike Davis to have only 75-80 Carries and 10 receptions.  I'm not sure they doled out $3MM in guaranteed money to see that as that's 5 carries and 0-1 reception per game.

 

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2 hours ago, unclemercy said:

i want shares but cant get any. he keeps going too high. considering him with the 6th pick overall in a 3 man keeper tomorrow but thats irrelavant. 

 

what are we putting his auction value range at?

 

$25 - $30 and $31 is too high?

He went for about 40 in my draft. Too rich for me but perhaps not entirely unreasonable. RBs do tend to go high in my league and he’s one of those guys that comes up when everybody’s panicking that they’ve missed out on the position 

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worms thx for input. we bid rbs up too. 

 

lol at carlos hyde. i think he has been on 5 teams in 2yrs which even if im misremembering or exaggerating he is obviously amazing. good luck with that andrew.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

You're the one disagreeing with me; YOU can define what that disagreement constitutes.  For me, if they're within a couple of points per week of each other (30-35 points on the year), then they're functionally equivalent for fantasy purposes.

30-35 points is still way too high to claim "functionally equivalent". That's the difference between a RB2 and a flex. Your argument wouldn't be quite so ridiculous if you stated that Hyde would provide better value at his draft position than Montgomery would. But you didn't... Regardless, you are already on the record for Hyde at 950-1000 yards rushing, and that is the standard you shall be held. So let it be written, so let it be done... 

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

30-35 points is still way too high to claim "functionally equivalent". That's the difference between a RB2 and a flex. Your argument wouldn't be quite so ridiculous if you stated that Hyde would provide better value at his draft position than Montgomery would. But you didn't... Regardless, you are already on the record for Hyde at 950-1000 yards rushing, and that is the standard you shall be held. So let it be written, so let it be done... 

You say an average of 2 pts per week is a significant difference, I don't.  :::shrugs:::  That's why I asked you to define your degree of disagreement with my statement that they are approximately equal.

30 points is the difference between a low-end RB2 and a high-end flex, maybe, but it was also the difference between RB11 and RB15 last year, so you could say that it's only the difference between two high-end RB2s, as well.

If you're asking me to define my confidence, I am VERY confident that there won't be more than 2 pts per week (32 points) difference between the two of them on the season (barring injury, of course), and I am fairly confident that there won't be more than 20 points difference.  There's a decent chance they won't be more than 10 points apart, but at that point, it's no longer worth arguing about.

And don't forget Hyde's 6-7 TDs, to go along with his 950-1000 yards.

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lol at hydes 7tds 

 

but as far as 2pts per game based on projections jrokh went as far as to say the difference made for a no brainer in another thread. just sayin.

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14 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You say an average of 2 pts per week is a significant difference, I don't.  :::shrugs:::  That's why I asked you to define your degree of disagreement with my statement that they are approximately equal.

30 points is the difference between a low-end RB2 and a high-end flex, maybe, but it was also the difference between RB11 and RB15 last year, so you could say that it's only the difference between two high-end RB2s, as well.

If you're asking me to define my confidence, I am VERY confident that there won't be more than 2 pts per week (32 points) difference between the two of them on the season (barring injury, of course), and I am fairly confident that there won't be more than 20 points difference.  There's a decent chance they won't be more than 10 points apart, but at that point, it's no longer worth arguing about.

And don't forget Hyde's 6-7 TDs, to go along with his 950-1000 yards.

I'll give you a free pass on the td's. I had Hyde on my team last year until the trade at least. He is very good at the 1yd plunge. You will only be judged on the yards and your unserious prediction of 950-1000 yards. Of course in another thread you predicted that Hooper will double J. Cook's score, but I can only handle one ridiculous prediction at a time...

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13 minutes ago, unclemercy said:

lol at hydes 7tds 

 

but as far as 2pts per game based on projections jrokh went as far as to say the difference made for a no brainer in another thread. just sayin.

Seems I left quite the impression on you, father... I had no idea you existed till now. Nice to make your acquaintance 

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Hyde avg 3.3 yds per carry last season with a good Cleveland Browns Oline.   I see further decline in Houston...think 3.1 is fair...so at 150 carries he'll be luck to get 480 rushing yards.

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3 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I'll give you a free pass on the td's. I had Hyde on my team last year until the trade at least. He is very good at the 1yd plunge. You will only be judged on the yards

Oh no... I will be judged on the TDs too, make no mistake.

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14 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Oh no... I will be judged on the TDs too, make no mistake.

Perhaps, but not by me. I think Hyde has a decent chance at 6-7.

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nbd kid. am still betting youre wrong om dalvin. first impressions are everything and i have a strong memory is all. smell you later.

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4 minutes ago, unclemercy said:

nbd kid. am still betting youre wrong om dalvin. first impressions are everything and i have a strong memory is all. smell you later.

Are you referring to me father? Don't forgive me because I haven't sinned. All I said about Cook is that you can't get him cheap because his ADP is #14. You seem awfully sensitive about him. Cheer up Father he could still work out. He's unlikely to get injured every season...

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Okay AxeElf....I'll put my money where my mouth is on a friendly wager.

Fantasy Football is so freaking unpredictable, but I'll bet you 25 bucks that, barring injury, DMont ends the season as a ppr FF RB1 (top 12), while Hyde is a RB2 at best (top 13-24, although I actually believe he could end up worse than that). I will also up the ante by betting an additional 25 bucks that, barring injury, The Duke has a better ppr FF season than Hyde.

Unless it's a wash, we can Paypal the booty at season's end.

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3 hours ago, stonewall said:

Okay AxeElf....I'll put my money where my mouth is on a friendly wager.

Fantasy Football is so freaking unpredictable, but I'll bet you 25 bucks that, barring injury, DMont ends the season as a ppr FF RB1 (top 12), while Hyde is a RB2 at best (top 13-24, although I actually believe he could end up worse than that). I will also up the ante by betting an additional 25 bucks that, barring injury, The Duke has a better ppr FF season than Hyde.

Unless it's a wash, we can Paypal the booty at season's end.

In PPR, I would tend to agree with you on Duke vs. Hyde; or at least it would be too close to bet on.  In standard scoring, I would take the action on Hyde, with the stipulation that in the case of injury, we would disregard the game in which the injury occurred, and prorate the rest of that player's full active games out to a full 16 games.

So for example, Hyde has 60 fantasy points through the first 6 games, gets hurt in the 7th game, misses 6 weeks and comes back for weeks 13-16 and scores a total of 40 points in those 4 games, he would have a score of (60 points + 40 points = 100 points / 10 healthy games = 10 ppg * 16 regular season games) 160 points.  Same for Duke, even if they end up missing a different number of games.  $25, via PayPal, after Week 17 of the regular season has concluded.

The first bet is worded poorly.  I lose if Hyde is the RB13 and Montgomery is the RB12, when I've been saying all along that they will be functionally equivalent for fantasy purposes.  I'm not going to have that claim proven correct and then lose money on it!  If you want to name a point spread between the two (again, in standard scoring), that would make them significantly different, in your opinion, for fantasy purposes, then I will consider my odds of winning and accept or reject the bet.

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Unfortunately, then, we will not be able to come to terms on either.

However, I would still be willing to stick my neck out and place a simple 25$ wager on DMont being a top-12 FF RB after 16 games, regardless of how Hyde does....heck, I'll even go non-ppr. I must, though, have the full 16 games, because I believe that, as a rookie, he will get increased burn as the year progresses and he takes complete control of that backfield. An injury would negate the bet, resulting in a push. 

Seem equitable?

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