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bfros

please rank these guys, all on waivers

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in a shallow league, full point PPR. All these guys are available. Please rank them per their rest of season value in a full point PPR league.

Breida (Coleman out for a few weeks)

Singletary (splitting with Gore, but looked explosive week 1)

Bernard (Mixon out for a bit)

Chris Thompson (Guice out)

Tyrell Williams (top WR in Oak)

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17 minutes ago, bfros said:

in a shallow league, full point PPR. All these guys are available. Please rank them per their rest of season value in a full point PPR league.

Breida (Coleman out for a few weeks)

Singletary (splitting with Gore, but looked explosive week 1)

Bernard (Mixon out for a bit)

Chris Thompson (Guice out)

Tyrell Williams (top WR in Oak)

Tyrell Williams, Singletary (maybe not right away, but later in the year he could be a plus), Thompson (only took him here as Gio & Breida may only be valuable for a few weeks), Breida, Gio.

That's how I'd rank them anyway. 

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1 hour ago, bfros said:

in a shallow league, full point PPR. All these guys are available. Please rank them per their rest of season value in a full point PPR league.

Breida (Coleman out for a few weeks)

Singletary (splitting with Gore, but looked explosive week 1)

Bernard (Mixon out for a bit)

Chris Thompson (Guice out)

Tyrell Williams (top WR in Oak)

What does your team look like at the rb and wr postion? 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

What does your team look like at the rb and wr postion? 

team is fairly loaded. Small league. 

RB: Elliot, Bell, Gurley, D.Williams, M.Sanders

WR: Allen, Thielen, Diggs, Gordon, Cupp

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Who would you drop, I guess your looking at dropping someone to pick someone else up? Is that correct? 

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3 hours ago, bfros said:

in a shallow league, full point PPR. All these guys are available. Please rank them per their rest of season value in a full point PPR league.

Breida (Coleman out for a few weeks)

Singletary (splitting with Gore, but looked explosive week 1)

Bernard (Mixon out for a bit)

Chris Thompson (Guice out)

Tyrell Williams (top WR in Oak)

Williams

Thompson

Breida

Singletary

Bernard

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4 hours ago, bfros said:

in a shallow league, full point PPR. All these guys are available. Please rank them per their rest of season value in a full point PPR league.

Breida (Coleman out for a few weeks)

Singletary (splitting with Gore, but looked explosive week 1)

Bernard (Mixon out for a bit)

Chris Thompson (Guice out)

Tyrell Williams (top WR in Oak)

Williams, Singletary, Thompson (they'll likely be throwing a lot with this squad and he had 10 targets week1), Breida (other RB Mostert got 9 carries to Breida's 15 and Mostert got them late in game too) Bernard (considering Mixon's injury history yes, but from what I've read Mixon 'no extended absence expected', could go this weekend)

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3 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Tyrell Williams, Singletary (maybe not right away, but later in the year he could be a plus), Thompson (only took him here as Gio & Breida may only be valuable for a few weeks), Breida, Gio.

That's how I'd rank them anyway. 

This is a pretty good ranking.

With AB gone, williams is the de facto #1 WR in Oakland.  if you dont pick him up, someone else will.

Singletary should already be rostered.  I'm surprised hes actually on the wire.

after this the rest are rather interchangable, but Thompson may be the best of the bunch.    Breida and Gio will get work the next while but they are short term bench players.  not long term.

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1 hour ago, bfros said:

team is fairly loaded. Small league. 

RB: Elliot, Bell, Gurley, D.Williams, M.Sanders

WR: Allen, Thielen, Diggs, Gordon, Cupp

Without a doubt, take the WR.  Don't be surprised if he outscores Diggs or Thielen.  Gordon will drop some too with AB coming on board. 

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I'll rank these a bit differently

Long Term Plays

Tyrell Williams (top WR in Oak) -If you examine williams 2016 stat line that was the year Allen was hurt so he was playing with Gabriel and Benjamin.  I think that's his ceiling.  He may not hit that with this offense vs what the 2016 chargers were but he's capable of putting up those numbers as WR1.

2016 24 SDG WR         69 1059 15.3 7                                    
2017 25 LAC WR         43 728 16.9 4                                    
2018 26 LAC wr         41 653 15.9 5                                    

Singletary (splitting with Gore, but looked explosive week 1) - The usage was positive and considering who's on that depth chart with him, he could be an RB2 by the end of the year.

Temporary Upside

Breida (Coleman out for a few weeks) - Breida was looking better than Coleman in the offense.  Only issue is he tends to get hurt every 2- 3 games and I think Mostert is a better true runner

Limited Workload

Chris Thompson (Guice out) - Thompson won't fill the Guice role, so I don't see a big uptick in his workload.  AP will take the early down work if they skins stay on schedule.  Thompson is still the passing back as he's not proven he can hold up to much more than 10-15 touches per game.

Bernard (Mixon out for a bit) - Mixon looks like he's only missing a week at most from what I've heard.  I'm not sure he's worth the investment if that's all the injury is.

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6 minutes ago, shutdown said:

Limited Workload

Chris Thompson (Guice out) - Thompson won't fill the Guice role, so I don't see a big uptick in his workload.  AP will take the early down work if they skins stay on schedule.  Thompson is still the passing back as he's not proven he can hold up to much more than 10-15 touches per game.

All this is true, but even with a limited workload, Thompson has averaged 12.5 PPR ppg in his 20 starts over the past 2 seasons, and he was the #11 PPR RB when he got hurt in 2017.  He's picking up right where he left off with 14.8 PPR points in Week 1 (#15 among RBs in PPR scoring).

So he's still a solid RB2 type that you can start as a Flex.

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21 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

All this is true, but even with a limited workload, Thompson has averaged 12.5 PPR ppg in his 20 starts over the past 2 seasons, and he was the #11 PPR RB when he got hurt in 2017.  He's picking up right where he left off with 14.8 PPR points in Week 1 (#15 among RBs in PPR scoring).

So he's still a solid RB2 type that you can start as a Flex.

How did you arrive at your numbers?  In 2018, he had only two games with over 12.5 PPR ppg.  Week one and Week two.  The only other time he hit double digits was in week 5 where he had 12.2 points.  This is straight PPR scoring taken from the MFL website. 

In 2017, the only good year since he's been in the NFL, he had six games over 12.5 PPG.  Weeks 1, 2, 3, 6, 7 & 8. He was injured from week 12 on and the three weeks prior to his injury he scored under 10 points in each game. 

Your post crap without even knowing what you're posting.  He most certainly did not "average 12.5 PPR ppg in his 20 starts over the past 2 seasons", nor was he the #11 PPR RB when he got hurt in 2017.  What the Fock are you smoking?  I'm looking at his numbers right in front of me.  In 2017 he averaged 15.4 PPR ppg over 10 games.  He had one 30 point game and one 23.6 point game.  Take away those, against the hapless Rams & Raiders of 2017, in Weeks 2 & 3, and he was a 10 point per week guy on average as the starter.  He isn't a starter now.  Take his 2018 numbers and it gets much much worse.  He had a 9.6 PPR ppg average, but take away his first two games of the season and he was barely a 5 point per week guy.  The more telling number is he averaged under 5 points per game in PPR after week 5 of 2018.  You have to go back two full years for him to average Flex worthy numbers in PPR. 

An interesting sidebar is that he averages over 20 PPR ppg in weeks 1-3 of his career.  He's absolutely a fast starter.  After week 10 of each season, he's absolute droppable.  He's never scored over 9.7 PPR ppg after week 10 in a single game. 

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23 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

How did you arrive at your numbers?

By translating Thompson's stats for the last two years into fantasy points.

In 2017 and 2018, Thompson has rushed for 472 yards and added 778 yards receiving.  That's 1,250 yards, or 125 fantasy points.

Thompson has 80 receptions in those two years for another 80 points, and he scored 7 TDs, for 42 more points.

125 + 80 + 42 = 247 fantasy points.

Thompson has played in 10 games each season, so divide 247 by 20 and you get 12.4 (12.35).

My apologies for being fifteen-hundredths of a fantasy point off.

All of your, "Yeah, but take away his four best games and THEN what?" nonsense is just that--nonsense.

 

I also must apologize for another error.  Chris Thompson was axually the #10 PPR RB through the first 11 weeks of 2017, when he got hurt (not the #11 PPR RB, as I erroneously stated).

PPR RB Stats for Weeks 1-11 of 2017

 

If you are in need of any other lessons, I would be glad to continue your education in other subjects besides math and fantasy football, but for now, please clap the erasers and turn out the lights when leaving my classroom.

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even if the stats are a bit askew or miscalculated for you guys, I sure do appreciate folks who try to post evaluative comments that are anchored in stats.....seriously, it's refreshing. Most people base their opinions on hunches and trends and recency biases. 

But feel free to carry on the pissing match, it's fun to watch, and quite helpful! :)  Boys will be boys. 

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26 minutes ago, bfros said:

even if the stats are a bit askew or miscalculated for you guys, I sure do appreciate folks who try to post evaluative comments that are anchored in stats.....seriously, it's refreshing. Most people base their opinions on hunches and trends and recency biases. 

But feel free to carry on the pissing match, it's fun to watch, and quite helpful! :)  Boys will be boys. 

it is one thing to look at stats, but sometimes stats dont tell the story.

sometimes the story is more along the lines of the situation.   I also like getting homer info from someone in the hometown of a player who attended a couple of practices.   Sometimes the eye test is more important than the stats.

That being said, I'm a guy who utilizes both at times when it makes sense to do so.

 

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35 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

By translating Thompson's stats for the last two years into fantasy points.

In 2017 and 2018, Thompson has rushed for 472 yards and added 778 yards receiving.  That's 1,250 yards, or 125 fantasy points.

Thompson has 80 receptions in those two years for another 80 points, and he scored 7 TDs, for 42 more points.

125 + 80 + 42 = 247 fantasy points.

Thompson has played in 10 games each season, so divide 247 by 20 and you get 12.4 (12.35).

My apologies for being fifteen-hundredths of a fantasy point off.

All of your, "Yeah, but take away his four best games and THEN what?" nonsense is just that--nonsense.

 

35 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

 

So.....  Taking away the fact the guy has scored over FIFTY PERCENT of his fantasy points in 4(ish) games over two seasons is wrong?  LOL  I bet your mother is proud.  Throw in the fact he's NEVER scored over 9.7 points in a single game after week ten and you have yourself a title winning Flex option, obviously.  Oh, and he's only scored more than 9.3 points ONCE in two years after week 10.  But he has been injured both seasons....  You sure do know how to pick winners.  What you should have posted after the stats I put up was something like "He is obviously a guy you want to try and trade by week 4 so you aren't screwed the rest of the season."  That would have made more sense.  You also failed to mention after scoring 7.4, 3.8, 2.3, 6.8, 5.1, and 4.2 points in successive games, he was likely on the bench for most owners.  He's a perfect example of "He may blow up, but you guess which game." The point is if you started him at any time in the last two seasons, you likely lost.  I happily admit he had a nice 2017.  The first 8 games of 2017 were fabulous.  Weeks 9, 10 and 11 of 2017 he failed to reach 10 points.  My goodness, he missed all the other games.  He was a playoff stud!!! 

Taking away 4 games from 20 isn't nonsense.  It's called separating reality from fantasy.  In 20% of his games he was worth starting.  In 12 of his games, if you started him, you likely lost.  The 4 in the middle were Flex worthy.  When your player only has 20% of his games that are considered good, maybe even 40% that are Flex worthy, he is likely to be on your bench when he does go off because he's burned you so often in the past.  People that draft a part time player based on only 4 quality games deserve what they get, which is likely a lesson on what is called 'a flash in the pan'.  Go ahead and tell me how he won you numerous titles, or how Fantasy Posers listed him as the greatest RB of all time....  Normally your diatribe is useless, but once in a while you do make me laugh. 

Let's use your information based on week one.  L. Jackson will score 80 passing TD's this season.  Stafford will be the #2 fantasy QB.  Ekeler will be the top no PPR RB.  Delanie Walker is due for 32 TD's at TE.  Now is when you sell those guys to newbie that will drastically overpay if you have competent backups or other starters.  Using your logic, you'll keep them, and post how great they are, while average you about 6 points per game or less during the playoffs, if they play during that period.  Nice.  Go back to writing for Fantasy Posers and pretending you know something.  :)

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1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

So.....  Taking away the fact the guy has scored over FIFTY PERCENT of his fantasy points in 4(ish) games over two seasons is wrong?  LOL  I bet your mother is proud.  Throw in the fact he's NEVER scored over 9.7 points in a single game after week ten and you have yourself a title winning Flex option, obviously.  Oh, and he's only scored more than 9.3 points ONCE in two years after week 10.  But he has been injured both seasons....  You sure do know how to pick winners.  What you should have posted after the stats I put up was something like "He is obviously a guy you want to try and trade by week 4 so you aren't screwed the rest of the season."  That would have made more sense.  You also failed to mention after scoring 7.4, 3.8, 2.3, 6.8, 5.1, and 4.2 points in successive games, he was likely on the bench for most owners.  He's a perfect example of "He may blow up, but you guess which game." The point is if you started him at any time in the last two seasons, you likely lost.  I happily admit he had a nice 2017.  The first 8 games of 2017 were fabulous.  Weeks 9, 10 and 11 of 2017 he failed to reach 10 points.  My goodness, he missed all the other games.  He was a playoff stud!!! 

Taking away 4 games from 20 isn't nonsense.  It's called separating reality from fantasy.  In 20% of his games he was worth starting.  In 12 of his games, if you started him, you likely lost.  The 4 in the middle were Flex worthy.  When your player only has 20% of his games that are considered good, maybe even 40% that are Flex worthy, he is likely to be on your bench when he does go off because he's burned you so often in the past.  People that draft a part time player based on only 4 quality games deserve what they get, which is likely a lesson on what is called 'a flash in the pan'.  Go ahead and tell me how he won you numerous titles, or how Fantasy Posers listed him as the greatest RB of all time....  Normally your diatribe is useless, but once in a while you do make me laugh. 

Let's use your information based on week one.  L. Jackson will score 80 passing TD's this season.  Stafford will be the #2 fantasy QB.  Ekeler will be the top no PPR RB.  Delanie Walker is due for 32 TD's at TE.  Now is when you sell those guys to newbie that will drastically overpay if you have competent backups or other starters.  Using your logic, you'll keep them, and post how great they are, while average you about 6 points per game or less during the playoffs, if they play during that period.  Nice.  Go back to writing for Fantasy Posers and pretending you know something.  :)

This is how you make stats lie for you... by picking and choosing which ones to pay attention to and which ones to sweep under the rug.

If you take away Tyreek Hill's six best games last year (in which he scored 62% of his fantasy points), he was only the #31 WR in the other 10 games on a points-per-game basis; hardly worth drafting.

Adam Thielen averaged 3.75 receptions per game, 51.75 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game in the fantasy playoff month of December last year, yet he was still a 2nd round pick this season.

Derrick Henry was the opposite; if you take away his December, he never rushed for over 60 yards and he amassed 4 total TDs in 2018.

Every fantasy player is inconsistent, especially receivers, but when you start taking away the games that don't fit your agenda, then you've lost objectivity.

 

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13 hours ago, AxeElf said:

This is how you make stats lie for you... by picking and choosing which ones to pay attention to and which ones to sweep under the rug.

If you take away Tyreek Hill's six best games last year (in which he scored 62% of his fantasy points), he was only the #31 WR in the other 10 games on a points-per-game basis; hardly worth drafting.

Adam Thielen averaged 3.75 receptions per game, 51.75 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game in the fantasy playoff month of December last year, yet he was still a 2nd round pick this season.

Derrick Henry was the opposite; if you take away his December, he never rushed for over 60 yards and he amassed 4 total TDs in 2018.

Every fantasy player is inconsistent, especially receivers, but when you start taking away the games that don't fit your agenda, then you've lost objectivity.

 

Not true.  Adam Thielen is the perfect example.  He was overrated by most this season.  You have to look at WHY their numbers fell.  Adam's fell because of a change at the Offensive Coordinator position.  After the season, the Vikings brought in Kubiak to design a completely new offense for them based on his Zone Blocking Scheme.  If you watch his offenses, only one WR is going to crack the top 10, if that.  So, if you base his perceived value on his stats from the beginning of last year, when he was completely on fire in a different scheme, you just paid entirely too much. 

Henry - Again, bad example.  Henry only had two games prior to week 14 of last season with 18 carries or more.  He had 17 in week 14, then 33, 21 and 16.  In weeks 2 & 3, he had 18 carries in each game, but against Jacksonville (before they fell apart) and Houston.  You have to look at the REASON why their numbers changed.  Nothing happens without a reason.  In his case, his volume increased drastically over the previous 10 weeks.  Why would you throw out something with a perfect explanation?  Thompson was getting about the same number of looks and touches.

Hill - Absolutely horrible to take away any games.  If you had 6 monster games, but were still the #31 in the others, the point you are trying to make is incredibly invalid.  In a 12 man league, you are starting 3 WR's and a Flex most of the time and many times you have the option of starting only 1 RB and using 4 WR's.  That not only puts him as a starting WR, but ahead of at least another couple dozen WR's, even on his off days, yet you say the WR31 is hardly worth drafting.  In an 8 or 10 man league, depending on Flex options, that may be the case.  In a 12 man league, the #31 guy has loads of value. 

I think I've explained that your examples above do NOT, at all, support what you wrote above.  Being objective as a fantasy owner is the responsible thing to do.  The irresponsible thing to do is what you did above.  You took random examples to try and prove a point.  A point that made no sense at all.  There is a story for every player, for every reason a players numbers increase or decrease.  Finding and understanding those stories will lead you to who is overvalued and who is undervalued.  Some owners call that winning.  You've now written several paragraphs that make zero sense and do not prove any point at all.  Either post something useful, which you do not do, or move on.  Anyone can post random comments and completely random stats.  What you posted above shows you do exactly what you accused me of.  lol  I may not write as skillfully, but my reasoning for doing what I do is always backed up by research.  Your "research" is nothing more than random comments strung together in the hopes someone will not actually read what you wrote.  If they do, your ignorance and lack of understanding shows through. 

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4 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Not true.  Adam Thielen is the perfect example.

Henry - Again, bad example.

Hill - Absolutely horrible to take away any games.

You're so hypocritical it's not even worth trying to correct all your errors.  I trust that those who have read this thread and evaluated the information objectively will come to their own conclusions, despite your nonsense.

You are dismissed...

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