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tubby_mcgee

Fantasy football. How much is skill, how much is luck?

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Draft Kings and whoever went through all the hub-ub a while back.... they claimed "It's skill, because you can analyze players, etc"


Uhhh....its 2019.  Everyone has access to same lists, sleeper lists, ratings, etc.  No one can predict injuries or schedules, etc...


I'd say, for anyone who is seasoned and is in a league with seasoned owners....

 

80-85% luck.

Discuss.  

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I have made the championship game in my 12 team league 5 of  the last 6 years.  Soooo..... I"m going with 83% skill.

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Extreme amount of luck.  Alot depends on your league type.  Head to head success depends on alot of variables out of your control.  Last year, I led league in points by a long shot and only lost 2 games.  First week of playoffs, I ran into a mediocre team that happened to go off that week. I would have easily beaten every other team that week. Luck of the draw...

Also, your waiver process adds variables. I remember years ago I was able to pick up Bulger and Lamar Gordon because if my waiver position and ended up winning my league. 

Weekly stuff like DK and FD I guess require more skill.  But, if there were not so much damn luck, the "pros" at Rotoworld, Fantasy Pros, etc would be nailing rankings every week.  I just doesnt happen.

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I am going mostly skill, I used to do a ton of research and was always near the top of my leagues, last 4-5 years I hardly do any research and I am pretty much the worst.

 

 

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I don’t play anymore but when I did, the biggest factors in winning seemed to be 1) getting first round production out of a mid/late round pick 2) drafting early round players who don’t bust and 3) injuries.

I’d call it 50/50. Usually the guys who put in a ton of time, research and preparation working the waiver wire are successful. Then again your first round pick goes down and you’re f’d.

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1 hour ago, MTSkiBum said:

I am going mostly skill, I used to do a ton of research and was always near the top of my leagues, last 4-5 years I hardly do any research and I am pretty much the worst.

Yup. This is me.  Lost the passion.  I practically did zero prep this year.  Printed out a few cheat sheets for the draft and even that felt like it took a lot of effort.

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37 minutes ago, MDC said:

Then again your first round pick goes down and you’re f’d.

Like most NFL teams when they draft a sh1t QB in the 1st round

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14 minutes ago, edjr said:

Like most NFL teams when they draft a sh1t QB in the 1st round

Sets a team back for 3 years or more. It will be 2020 before the Bears realize Trubisky is Blake Bortles in disguise.

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6 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

I guess it’s lucky that I seem to be the only person in the world that moved marlon mack up when luck retired. And knew that allowing to get him in the 5th round of both my redrafts

Id say if he pans out, thats a skillful decision.  If he blows out his ACL, thats bad luck and no reflection on your skillful analysis of what the outcome could be.  

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1 hour ago, vuduchile said:

0% skill

10% effort

90% luck 

:thumbsup:

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2 hours ago, vuduchile said:

0% skill

10% effort

90% luck 

we don't care about how hard it is for you to get laid.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

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I mean you have to pay attention and keep up on it.  But that isnt skill its work.

So mostly all luck.  

Id love to see top 10 rankings at each position from the guys who call it skill.  And see how they do.  They wont do that well.  Predicitions and projections are a crapshoot.  À

 

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35 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

 

Id love to see top 10 rankings at each position from the guys who call it skill.  And see how they do.  They wont do that well.  Predicitions and projections are a crapshoot.  À

 

There are definitive trends and tendencies for players over a season(can also look at standard deviation), but there are many variable during a game that are not foreseeable:

While we know that Minn wants to run the ball more this year I do not think anyone would forecast only 10 passing attempts for the game from their offense.

We cannot predict the 1st quarter injuries to players that impact your weekly score (though now best ball is becoming popular to offset that)

There will always be vultures (Hilliard and Gallman impacting Chubb and Barkley)

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3 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

I am going mostly skill, I used to do a ton of research and was always near the top of my leagues, last 4-5 years I hardly do any research and I am pretty much the worst.

 

 

So you have/had access to info that everyone else doesn't?  Or you put in less effort? 

I really like what Vudu said....below...that's the ticket.  Effort and luck. 

 

3 hours ago, vuduchile said:

0% skill

10% effort

90% luck 

Bingo.   This.  Effort plays a big part too.  Maybe more than 10% even. 

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44 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

There are definitive trends and tendencies for players over a season(can also look at standard deviation), but there are many variable during a game that are not foreseeable:

While we know that Minn wants to run the ball more this year I do not think anyone would forecast only 10 passing attempts for the game from their offense.

We cannot predict the 1st quarter injuries to players that impact your weekly score (though now best ball is becoming popular to offset that)

There will always be vultures (Hilliard and Gallman impacting Chubb and Barkley)

Yes this is mostly my stance.  Year round projections are hard to do but still more foreseeable than week to week game flow.  

Not to mention head to head leagues where the 2nd to last pt total can beat the worst pt total of the week.   While the 2nd best total loses to the highest total of the week.

Not to mention fluke plays.  Such as a couple years back I lost on the redskins doing the ol lateral play as a last resort, only to drop it/fumble it and have Justin Houston scoop it and score it randomly.  It also screwed gamblers.  

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/0ap3000000855815/Can-t-Miss-Play-Justin-Houston-puts-exclamation-point-on-Chiefs-win

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here is copy and pasted from my preseason top 10 ppr 

Cmac

Barkley

Kamara

DJohnson

Zeke

Cook

Fournette

Dam Williams (before Shady

Chubb

Mack

I did not have Mixon, Conner or Gurley in my top 10 with Fournette, Cook and Mack moving in

WR's

Hop

Julio

Thomas

Hill (-luck factor at play)

Juju

Adams

Keenan

Edelman (pre AB)

ODB

Cooper 

pretty close to chalk, although I wasn't buying the Evans or Tampa nonsense

 

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About 80% luck, 10% knowledge, 10% common sense. You can’t control who you play head to head. This week I lost scoring 150, another team won scoring 97. If it’s a league where everyone knows their stuff, it’s just about who got injured and who faced who head to head.

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26 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

About 80% luck, 10% knowledge, 10% common sense. You can’t control who you play head to head. This week I lost scoring 150, another team won scoring 97. If it’s a league where everyone knows their stuff, it’s just about who got injured and who faced who head to head.

Don't disagree but like vudu says, effort is def a factor.  My success seems to be directly proportional to effort.

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Ive done well in the years I used to spend a ton of time on it.  Ive done well in years I have went into the draft saying to myself "im focked".   Due to not looking at anything or thinking much about fantasy up until that point.

Of course you have to stay up on waivers and injuries to have a shot.  But if you watch football and know the league, you can go into a draft without much thought and still draft a capable team.

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8 hours ago, MDC said:

I don’t play anymore but when I did, the biggest factors in winning seemed to be 1) getting first round production out of a mid/late round pick 2) drafting early round players who don’t bust and 3) injuries.

I’d call it 50/50. Usually the guys who put in a ton of time, research and preparation working the waiver wire are successful. Then again your first round pick goes down and you’re f’d.

Luck favors the prepared!  :thumbsup:

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7 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

shame on you watch a fricking movie, start with Rounders

So tell me, how is poker not 100% luck?

I guess maybe reading the other player to see if they are bluffing could be a "skill"...  Knowing the percentage of winning a hand with your cards really isn't a skill since it is more memorization, but I will give you that as well...

So with that in hand, poker would be 95% luck then, but no less...

Just read the plot in Wikipedia on this movie...  Total pass...

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18 hours ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Draft Kings and whoever went through all the hub-ub a while back.... they claimed "It's skill, because you can analyze players, etc"

 

I don't trust FD or DK (especially the bigger tournaments).

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