Steeler Desperation Move

[Law 220]

They gave away a first round pick to the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick. A Safety / CB hybrid!

Disgusting.

He's perhaps a fine player, but he was over-hyped as a high first rounder and has not set the world on fire. Now, the Dolphins get a first rounder back for him and the Steelers lose a first rounder next year...when they may desperately need the help. They better hope Rudolph is the real deal AND so it Fitzpatrick.

DBs are NOT the issue for Pittsburgh. They have Haden and Nelson on the corners and they paid both. They have Davis and Edmunds at Safety - both high draft picks. They needed another DB for a first rounder? Really????

 

Disgusted.

[Mike FF Today 607]

Doesn't make a lot of sense at the moment. Puzzling indeed. 

[IGotWorms 3,302]

I guess somebody reckons they’re on the hot seat so why not? Is Tomlin the personnel guy there too?

[jgcrawfish 232]

No, that's Kevin Colbert, who is fairly highly regarded.  This really does seem like a desperation move.  They have a lot of young talent in the secondary, why go and get younger like this when they could potentially be looking at a high pick next year?  It's coming off the rails in the Burgh.  

[AxeElf 787]

They probly thought they were getting RYAN Fitzpatrick...

[Bill E. 666]

5 hours ago, Law said:

They gave away a first round pick to the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick. A Safety / CB hybrid!

Disgusting.

He's perhaps a fine player, but he was over-hyped as a high first rounder and has not set the world on fire. Now, the Dolphins get a first rounder back for him and the Steelers lose a first rounder next year...when they may desperately need the help. They better hope Rudolph is the real deal AND so it Fitzpatrick.

DBs are NOT the issue for Pittsburgh. They have Haden and Nelson on the corners and they paid both. They have Davis and Edmunds at Safety - both high draft picks. They needed another DB for a first rounder? Really????

 

Disgusted.

i do not get it either.  The way they are playing i was thinking they might get Tua.  Not really but they are in line for a good pick in '20.  Now no 1s or 2s.  Dolphins might have to decide which pick is worth more week 5 and actually try to win a game. 

[oldtimer 84]

With 4 quality QB's coming out in the draft, this seems incredibly odd.  Do they think Rudolph is taking them to the Superbowl?  For as bad as the Miami ownership group is, I think they fleeced the Steelers.  This wasn't Jalen Ramsey, it was a hybrid who hasn't looked spectacular doing anything yet.  He's definitely not a scrub, but a high first round pick?  No thanks.  A complete head scratcher. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

I think the organization is pretty stoked about Rudolph.  At the start of the draft process 2 years ago, he was considered a first round QB.  After all of the hoobaloo of the off-season, the book on him seemed to be that he was raw and needed some time to sit.  It's possible that the team thinks that after sitting last year, they have their guy.  If Rudolph plays well, the Steelers, with Fitzpatrick, have a shot at the playoffs.  Let's assume that the Ravens win the division.  What two teams are going to be the wildcard teams?  I can't sit here and give you 2 teams that I believe are locks.  Heck, I can't even give you 1.  After losing in such horrible fashion to the Lions, I'm not so sure about the Chargers.  Does anyone really believe the Broncos or Raiders are playoff teams?  Anyone from the AFC East?  South?  The way I see it, there can be 7 or 8 teams with 7 to 9 wins vying for those 2 wild card spots in the AFC come crunch time.  Why can't the Steelers be one of them?

[zftcg 84]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the organization is pretty stoked about Rudolph.  At the start of the draft process 2 years ago, he was considered a first round QB.  After all of the hoobaloo of the off-season, the book on him seemed to be that he was raw and needed some time to sit.  It's possible that the team thinks that after sitting last year, they have their guy.  If Rudolph plays well, the Steelers, with Fitzpatrick, have a shot at the playoffs.  Let's assume that the Ravens win the division.  What two teams are going to be the wildcard teams?  I can't sit here and give you 2 teams that I believe are locks.  Heck, I can't even give you 1.  After losing in such horrible fashion to the Lions, I'm not so sure about the Chargers.  Does anyone really believe the Broncos or Raiders are playoff teams?  Anyone from the AFC East?  South?  The way I see it, there can be 7 or 8 teams with 7 to 9 wins vying for those 2 wild card spots in the AFC come crunch time.  Why can't the Steelers be one of them?

I don't care if Rudolph has been literally throwing balls of molten energy at practice; the next game he starts will be his first in the NFL. The notion that the Steelers could be confident enough in him to throw away their first-round pick and go all-in on this season is ridiculous on its face, especially given that the more likely scenario is that they suck this year and lose their chance to draft Ben's replacement.

This is the kind of bet that could end up costing Colbert his job.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

33 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I don't care if Rudolph has been literally throwing balls of molten energy at practice; the next game he starts will be his first in the NFL. The notion that the Steelers could be confident enough in him to throw away their first-round pick and go all-in on this season is ridiculous on its face, especially given that the more likely scenario is that they suck this year and lose their chance to draft Ben's replacement.

This is the kind of bet that could end up costing Colbert his job.

I completely disagree with you.  If Fitzpatrick was in the last year of his contract, then I'd say you have a point, but he's not.  After this season, he has 3 more years left.  When you trade for a top tier DB where you'll get 4 years of guaranteed production, that is NOT "going all-in".  Also, if Rudolph plays well, they've already found Ben's replacement.

[jrokh 567]

It definitely feels like a risky move. The Steelers are betting that Rudolph is ready to win games right away, and that in doing so their first round pick will be low enough that the player they could have gotten isn't on the level of a Minkah Fitzpatrick. Too rich for my blood...

[zftcg 84]

12 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I completely disagree with you.  If Fitzpatrick was in the last year of his contract, then I'd say you have a point, but he's not.  After this season, he has 3 more years left.  When you trade for a top tier DB where you'll get 4 years of guaranteed production, that is NOT "going all-in".  Also, if Rudolph plays well, they've already found Ben's replacement.

The "all-in" part is giving away their first-round pick. You better be right about it or you could be really screwed.

When the Texans gave up all those draft picks for Tunsil, I thought they overpaid, but I could at least see the logic. They thought that a LT could be the missing piece that would make them championship contenders, and were willing to sacrifice the future for that. More importantly, they already had their franchise QB in place.

In the Steelers case, a hybrid CB/S is a nice piece to have on an otherwise contending team, but even in the best case scenario they're not winning a SB with Rudolph this year. Meanwhile, what they're sacrificing is not just a first-round pick, but a (potentially high) first-round pick where they would have the opportunity to draft their next franchise QB.

Yes, it may turn out that they already have that guy on the roster in Rudolph. But man, that's a hell of a bet to make on a 3rd-round pick who put up decent (but not amazing) stats in college and who's never started a single NFL game. And if they're wrong about him, they have absolutely nothing to fall back on.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

11 minutes ago, zftcg said:

The "all-in" part is giving away their first-round pick. You better be right about it or you could be really screwed.

When the Texans gave up all those draft picks for Tunsil, I thought they overpaid, but I could at least see the logic. They thought that a LT could be the missing piece that would make them championship contenders, and were willing to sacrifice the future for that. More importantly, they already had their franchise QB in place.

In the Steelers case, a hybrid CB/S is a nice piece to have on an otherwise contending team, but even in the best case scenario they're not winning a SB with Rudolph this year. Meanwhile, what they're sacrificing is not just a first-round pick, but a (potentially high) first-round pick where they would have the opportunity to draft their next franchise QB.

Yes, it may turn out that they already have that guy on the roster in Rudolph. But man, that's a hell of a bet to make on a 3rd-round pick who put up decent (but not amazing) stats in college and who's never started a single NFL game. And if they're wrong about him, they have absolutely nothing to fall back on.

Simply, I disagree with you on every level of this post (concerning the Steelers).

The Steelers DID get it right with Fitzpatrick.  He's a pro-bowl caliber player, already.  There are ZERO in the 2020 NFL draft.

They don't need to win the SB this year.  Not only does Fitzpatrick have 3 more years left, so does Rudolph.  Also, Roethlisberger is signed through the 2021 season.  So, even if they're wrong about Rudolph, they could still get a QB in 2021 or 2022... to which, Fitzpatrick would still be on the team.

Rudolph's may have "...put up decent (but not amazing) stats in college", but his numbers are no worse than Goff or Wentz who just got paid this off-season.  Again, after this season, Rudolph is still there for 2 more seasons.  They don't need to be good or great this year... just need to see what they have because Ben WILL be the starter next year unless he retires because his cap number is something like $33M ($25M if they cut him).

[jgcrawfish 232]

After some thought, this is, in some ways, safer than a draft pick.  You're getting a highly drafted player who has already begun to prove himself on the field vs a complete unknown in next years draft.  You are getting a budget friendly contract for 3 yrs vs someone like Jalen Ramsay who will break the Steelers bank.  And you are sending a message to your 0-2 team with a QB starting his first game that "we believe in you and believe this team can make the playoffs".  If the Steelers finish at anything better than 7-9, this trade is probably a win.  If they believe that Rudolph is the future and/or Ben will come back fully healthy, then this is still a win.  Again, the Steelers had Rudolph graded at 1st round level before the draft last year.  If they believe he can lead them and this will help fix the defense NOW, then it's a move you make to salvage the young season.  

[zftcg 84]

2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Rudolph's may have "...put up decent (but not amazing) stats in college", but his numbers are no worse than Goff or Wentz who just got paid this off-season.  

Goff and Wentz weren't paid because of their college production. They got paid because they led their teams to the Super Bowl (OK, not technically in Wentz's case, but you get the idea).

Ben will be in his late 30s coming off elbow surgery. No guarantees he will be their starter next year.

What I see as the big risk here is if Rudolph sucks and the wheels come off, the Steelers will have given away what will likely be their one chance to draft a franchise QB in the top of the first round (or even to do what the Chiefs and Texans did when they drafted Mahomes/Watson, trading a future No. 1 to move up a few spots. If the Steelers want to draft a QB early next year, they will have to give up a ton to get back into the first round).

Anyway, we clearly are not going to convince each other, so no point in going around and around. I'm neither a Steelers homer nor a hater, although I generally have a lot of respect for the organization. And I'm not saying it definitely won't work out. I just think the upside is limited and the downside is potentially catastrophic.

[oldtimer 84]

2 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Goff and Wentz weren't paid because of their college production. They got paid because they led their teams to the Super Bowl (OK, not technically in Wentz's case, but you get the idea).

Ben will be in his late 30s coming off elbow surgery. No guarantees he will be their starter next year.

What I see as the big risk here is if Rudolph sucks and the wheels come off, the Steelers will have given away what will likely be their one chance to draft a franchise QB in the top of the first round (or even to do what the Chiefs and Texans did when they drafted Mahomes/Watson, trading a future No. 1 to move up a few spots. If the Steelers want to draft a QB early next year, they will have to give up a ton to get back into the first round).

Anyway, we clearly are not going to convince each other, so no point in going around and around. I'm neither a Steelers homer nor a hater, although I generally have a lot of respect for the organization. And I'm not saying it definitely won't work out. I just think the upside is limited and the downside is potentially catastrophic.

I like the Steelers, but am not sure how this helps them more than a potential QB in 2020 where there is an excellent crop coming out.  .  I can't say I know a lot about Rudolph, but for this trade to pay off, I believe they need to go better than 7-9.  I think they need to make the playoffs AND Rudolph has to clearly establish himself as the future. 

On the flip side, what Minka does well is pretty rare.  He can cover and he can tackle.  I'm thinking in the Steelers defense, he may even be used to rush the passer some.  If they use him more in the slot, so he's closer to the line of scrimmage, he could be a devastating addition.  Thinking of both he & Smith running around the middle of that defense could be pretty awesome.

There is just so much risk involved though.  Someone posted above that Rudolph was considered a potential first round pick at one point.  I just Googled his Scouting Reports.  https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mason-rudolph?id=32195255-4432-1216-a9be-28502c0847e4  You can read about twenty of them online.  The highest I saw him ranked was as a potential second rounder as more of a career backup than a true starter.  His plusses appear to be that he sees the field well and is excellent off the play action.  His weaknesses are the same in almost every report;  Lack of arm strength, not a good downfield passer and will check down much too often, which is how he kept his interception rate so low in college. 

Much too early to tell what will happen.  IF Rudolph and Minkah both pan out, it's a nice deal.  IF Rudolph doesn't, and the Steelers falter to finish with a high draft pick, it's a horrible move.  We will know for certain in a couple of months.  The 2020 draft is loaded with excellent cornerbacks, so they could have definitely had a stud CB in the next draft if they wanted one.  The most recent mock drafts by the scouts have a couple CB's going before the 10th pick and a couple just after. 

 

[zftcg 84]

10 minutes ago, jgcrawfish said:

After some thought, this is, in some ways, safer than a draft pick.  You're getting a highly drafted player who has already begun to prove himself on the field vs a complete unknown in next years draft.  You are getting a budget friendly contract for 3 yrs vs someone like Jalen Ramsay who will break the Steelers bank.  And you are sending a message to your 0-2 team with a QB starting his first game that "we believe in you and believe this team can make the playoffs".  If the Steelers finish at anything better than 7-9, this trade is probably a win.  If they believe that Rudolph is the future and/or Ben will come back fully healthy, then this is still a win.  Again, the Steelers had Rudolph graded at 1st round level before the draft last year.  If they believe he can lead them and this will help fix the defense NOW, then it's a move you make to salvage the young season.  

I see your logic, but not all first-round picks are created equal. No matter how good a DB is, he doesn't alter the trajectory of your franchise the way a QB does, and in a QB-rich draft in a year where you potentially have a top draft pick AND you need to start thinking about drafting your current franchise QB's replacement, trading that pick away seems incredibly risky. And as I said in my previous post, in a scenario where the Steelers finish 7-9 or even 9-7 with Rudolph but keep their pick, they could package it plus a future No. 1 to move up a la KC/Houston in 2017. Now they can't even do that.

Where I think we can all agree is that this ultimately comes down to Rudolph. If he's good and can become Ben's long-term replacement, this deal makes a lot more sense.

[zftcg 84]

5 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

There is just so much risk involved though.  Someone posted above that Rudolph was considered a potential first round pick at one point.  I just Googled his Scouting Reports.  https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mason-rudolph?id=32195255-4432-1216-a9be-28502c0847e4  You can read about twenty of them online.  The highest I saw him ranked was as a potential second rounder as more of a career backup than a true starter.  His plusses appear to be that he sees the field well and is excellent off the play action.  His weaknesses are the same in almost every report;  Lack of arm strength, not a good downfield passer and will check down much too often, which is how he kept his interception rate so low in college. 

I don't know a ton about Rudolph either, but whenever I hear that a team "had a first-round grade" on a later-round prospect, I'm reminded of my college professor who said, "I've been teaching for 30 years, and in that time the number of sick grandparents I've heard about relative to the total number of students I've taught is a mathematical impossibility." In other words, I think it's often just something teams say to spin what a brilliant pick they made.

[IGotWorms 3,302]

18 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I don't know a ton about Rudolph either, but whenever I hear that a team "had a first-round grade" on a later-round prospect, I'm reminded of my college professor who said, "I've been teaching for 30 years, and in that time the number of sick grandparents I've heard about relative to the total number of students I've taught is a mathematical impossibility." In other words, I think it's often just something teams say to spin what a brilliant pick they made.

And if you have a first round grade on a QB why do you take him in the third? They passed on him twice. Seems like malpractice if the guy is truly a first round QB

[weepaws 2,452]

Better value. 

[zftcg 84]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

And if you have a first round grade on a QB why do you take him in the third? They passed on him twice. Seems like malpractice if the guy is truly a first round QB

Kind of like how the Pats get credit for picking Brady even though they passed on him for the previous five rounds

[cavern 70]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

And if you have a first round grade on a QB why do you take him in the third? They passed on him twice. Seems like malpractice if the guy is truly a first round QB

i'm not saying they did or they didn't actually have a "first round grade" on him - however, if you think he's great, and you somehow know or suspect others do not rate him so highly, then it would be foolish to take him early when you can have him + another first round talent

[AxeElf 787]

41 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Kind of like how the Pats get credit for picking Brady even though they passed on him for the previous five rounds

 

18 minutes ago, cavern said:

i'm not saying they did or they didn't actually have a "first round grade" on him - however, if you think he's great, and you somehow know or suspect others do not rate him so highly, then it would be foolish to take him early when you can have him + another first round talent

Exactly.

Even in fantasy, you may think that Terry McLaurin is going to be the #1 WR this year, but you don't draft him in the first round when you can get him in the 18th.

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

As a Steeler fan, I hated this move when i first heard it.  But the more I think and hear about it, I think it may be genius.  

It's certainly a risky move, but...

The Steelers secondary is bad.  I think it's more about scheme than personnel, but they were almost guaranteed to be drafting a safety next draft.  Sean Davis sucks, won't be back, and is now out for the year.  So basically, the Steelers are drafting Fitzpatrick with their 1st rd pick.  Who, unlike a lot of draft picks, has already proven he can play at a high level in the league.

As for the actual draft pick and QB.  How many sure fire franchise QBs will be in the draft?  Tua and Herbert?  Those two will probably go top 5, and maybe top 2 (Miami, and someone like Cincy, TB, etc).  Even if Rudolph is terrible, I don't expect the Steelers to finish worse than Miami and a few other teams that would draft a QB.  Maybe there will be others that come out and would be great value at picks 8-15ish, but would they be able to start and be good next year?  And that's assuming Ben doesn't come back and play out his final 2 years.

If they have a 5-10 pick in the draft, and Tua and Herbert are gone, their biggest need would probably be a Safety/DB.  The class is supposed to be weak next year, so Fitz is probably the better bet.  

[jgcrawfish 232]

5 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

And if you have a first round grade on a QB why do you take him in the third? They passed on him twice. Seems like malpractice if the guy is truly a first round QB

I had a first round grade on Emmanual Sanders but opted to wait until the 10th to grab him...just means I'm smarter than er'body else.  

[IGotWorms 3,302]

Wow you guys are dumb.

The claim is they had a first round grade on him.

Brady analogy is entirely inapplicable as the Pats never claimed they had a first round grade on him. They simply got lucky. Everyone knows that.

But if you think Rudolph is a first rounder, and you need a QB because you’re top guy has openly pondered retirement, then you take him.

Maybe you think well we really need this other player more right now. More than a QB? But okay. So if he’s still there in the second you celebrate your good fortune and take him without question.

You don’t skip him again and wait until the focking third round. There’s no way you can be sure that 31 other teams don’t value this focking quarterback you have graded as a first rounder. No way.

So in sum, it’s bullsh1t

[zftcg 84]

4 hours ago, cavern said:

i'm not saying they did or they didn't actually have a "first round grade" on him 

I'm saying definitely that they didn't. It's a figure of speech, NFL-ese for "We are giving him a vote of confidence."

[Law 220]

With the news of S Davis to IR, I do feel better about this trade, but a 1 still seems high. As has been stated though, the get him on the cheap for several years and that helps. I feel like if the Steelers' pick ends up being a 15 or lower, this trade was a win. IF it's a 14 or higher, more of a loss - unless Fitz just totally balls out. To me, he really hasn't shown that yet, but maybe he does. I'll wait and see.

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

You don’t skip him again and wait until the focking third round. There’s no way you can be sure that 31 other teams don’t value this focking quarterback you have graded as a first rounder. No way.

Well, they did trade 2 picks to move up in the third to get him.

[jgcrawfish 232]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Wow you guys are dumb.

The claim is they had a first round grade on him.

Brady analogy is entirely inapplicable as the Pats never claimed they had a first round grade on him. They simply got lucky. Everyone knows that.

But if you think Rudolph is a first rounder, and you need a QB because you’re top guy has openly pondered retirement, then you take him.

Maybe you think well we really need this other player more right now. More than a QB? But okay. So if he’s still there in the second you celebrate your good fortune and take him without question.

You don’t skip him again and wait until the focking third round. There’s no way you can be sure that 31 other teams don’t value this focking quarterback you have graded as a first rounder. No way.

So in sum, it’s bullsh1t

And you're clueless about how player evaluation in the NFL really works.  The Steelers could have had a top 10 grade on him before the draft last season, but if other positions are more "need" positions they will go after other players.  Teams don't compare their draft list with other teams and they don't give a fock about what the talking heads on TV have people rated at.  They have entire departments for talent evaluation and draft preparation.  Before the draft last season the Steelers had a healthy and fresh off 5000 yards Roethlisberger, a proven backup in Landry Jones and a 4th round upside pick the year before pick in Josh Dobbs.  They had ZERO need for a QB, particularly early.  But a 3rd round pick for a player they really liked and had a higher grade on, that's too much to pass up.  It took one training camp for Rudolph to make Landry Jones unnecessary and the Steelers to cut him, and took him one more camp to move ahead of Dobbs who got cut this year.  Clearly they believe they have something in Rudolph, enough so that they made him the backup behind a 37 yr old QB with a bit of an injury history.  But the "we had him as a late 1st talent" statement didn't come this year, it came right after they drafted him.  

For reference:

Jacoby Brissett (91)

Andy  Dalton (35)

Dak Prescott (135)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (250)

Tom Brady (199)

Derek Carr (36)

Jimmy Garoppolo (62)

Russell Wilson (75)

So I'm thinking that Mason Rudolph at 76 stands a reasonable chance of success since 8 of 31 other teams are starting QB's drafted in the 2nd or later.  That doesn't even include guys like Minshew and Luke Faulk who are taking over for injuries, or Lamar Jackson who Baltimore traded up to get with the last pick of the 1st round otherwise he would have fallen to the 2nd as well.  With Rudolph and those two that makes 11 of 32 who starting this weekend who weren't even first rounders.  

 

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

15 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the organization is pretty stoked about Rudolph.  At the start of the draft process 2 years ago, he was considered a first round QB.  After all of the hoobaloo of the off-season, the book on him seemed to be that he was raw and needed some time to sit.  It's possible that the team thinks that after sitting last year, they have their guy.  If Rudolph plays well, the Steelers, with Fitzpatrick, have a shot at the playoffs.  Let's assume that the Ravens win the division.  What two teams are going to be the wildcard teams?  I can't sit here and give you 2 teams that I believe are locks.  Heck, I can't even give you 1.  After losing in such horrible fashion to the Lions, I'm not so sure about the Chargers.  Does anyone really believe the Broncos or Raiders are playoff teams?  Anyone from the AFC East?  South?  The way I see it, there can be 7 or 8 teams with 7 to 9 wins vying for those 2 wild card spots in the AFC come crunch time.  Why can't the Steelers be one of them?

I actually came in thinking dumb pick, but this is a good post and it does make sense this way. The AFC is weak this year, if Pitt finishes 8th or better in the conference this would be a safe 1st rounder.

[Ray_T 587]

13 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

And if you have a first round grade on a QB why do you take him in the third? They passed on him twice. Seems like malpractice if the guy is truly a first round QB

if  you have a Ben Rothlisberger, wentz, or Goff, you dont pick QB's in round 1 even if they are first round value.

You likely dont even pick them in round 2.   spending a 2nd round pick  on a QB (even if a first round value) is a waste in this situation because even if they are as good as advertised, they may still never see the field.  

Round 3 seems about right because you can justify  sitting them on the bench to learn for a year or two.   and the fans wont demand you replace their starter after every bad game.

[Snuff 10]

A 1st rounder last year who has proven himself already vs a first rounder next year who is unproven.  Has quite a few years left on his contract. What's the big deal?  They already drafted (who they really like) their QB for the future, who didn't have a bad 1st game at all, and already knows the system.  Their secondary needs a lot of help, now and for the future.  

Draft picks for the most part are for the future.  The Steelers made this move for the present AND the future.

[jgcrawfish 232]

it's also important to remember the Steelers lost safety Sean Davis as well.  This move was beyond just an attempt to "win now" it filled a huge need on the back end of their defense.  Fitzpatrick can apparently play corner, slot corner and safety pretty comfortably so they get a lot of versatility.  The Steelers have been getting eaten in the middle of the field...and as much as I like Mike Hilton playing slot corner he's gotten burned and flat out cannot take TE due to his size.  The more I think about this move, the more shrewd I convince myself it was.  

[oldtimer 84]

I'll agree with everything everyone has said on both sides as some good points have been made.  His contract though it for two years after this one, then they would have to use the option tag, which isn't cheap.  With Brown, Bell & likely Big Ben off the books by then, they will have plenty of money though. 

Let's see how Rudolph performs the rest of the way.  He has a good line in front of him and some excellent weapons.  He has been in the league just long enough for the team to possibly have fixed some of the things the Scouts didn't like about him too.  Right now, it's all up in the air.  For this to be a good trade, in my opinion, Rudolph has to make some progress.  After giving it some thought, I no longer think their overall record matters.  If he shows enough to remain the starter (if Ben doesn't return), then it's a good trade.  If Ben returns healthy next season, then it's unquestionably a good trade.  If Ben retires and Rudolph shows nothing more than the capability to be a good backup, it's likely not a good deal.  We aren't going to know though for quite some time.  People will begin judging Rudolph immediately.  The kid needs the remainder of the season before anyone judges him, not just a game, two games or even five.  After a year in the system, his weapons around him and what now appears to be an upgraded defense, I think we can fairly grade him after week 17. 

[cavern 70]

19 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Wow you guys are dumb.

The claim is they had a first round grade on him.

Brady analogy is entirely inapplicable as the Pats never claimed they had a first round grade on him. They simply got lucky. Everyone knows that.

But if you think Rudolph is a first rounder, and you need a QB because you’re top guy has openly pondered retirement, then you take him.

Maybe you think well we really need this other player more right now. More than a QB? But okay. So if he’s still there in the second you celebrate your good fortune and take him without question.

You don’t skip him again and wait until the focking third round. There’s no way you can be sure that 31 other teams don’t value this focking quarterback you have graded as a first rounder. No way.

So in sum, it’s bullsh1t

this is such a weird position to take.  you don't think it's possible to have an excellent grade on a player like Rudolph, but believe your needs to be greater elsewhere - so you use your first 2 picks on other players you deem to "need" more... and then, as the third round is getting going someone in your draft room speaks up and says "Hey guys, Mason Rudolph is still available...." and then you trade to move up?

that or something similar is just not even possible?

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

42 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I'll agree with everything everyone has said on both sides as some good points have been made.  His contract though it for two years after this one, then they would have to use the option tag, which isn't cheap.  With Brown, Bell & likely Big Ben off the books by then, they will have plenty of money though. 

Three years, counting the 5th year option.

[oldtimer 84]

47 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Three years, counting the 5th year option.

Isn't that what I said?  Two years after this one, then the option tag for the 5th?  I'm not a mathematician, so I could be wrong.  lol  I tried using my fingers though!   This is his second season, so after this one, he'll have two more, then the tag, correct?  Now I'm confused! 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

1 minute ago, oldtimer said:

Isn't that what I said?  Two years after this one, then the option tag for the 5th?  I'm not a mathematician, so I could be wrong.  lol  I tried using my fingers though!   This is his second season, so after this one, he'll have two more, then the tag, correct?  Now I'm confused! 

No, the problem is that I have a reading comprehension issue.  LOL.  I missed where you added in the 5th year option.

[oldtimer 84]

1 hour ago, cavern said:

this is such a weird position to take.  you don't think it's possible to have an excellent grade on a player like Rudolph, but believe your needs to be greater elsewhere - so you use your first 2 picks on other players you deem to "need" more... and then, as the third round is getting going someone in your draft room speaks up and says "Hey guys, Mason Rudolph is still available...." and then you trade to move up?

that or something similar is just not even possible?

Next year, I'm taking a Kicker in the first round of my fantasy draft.  I'll show these people what value is!!!! 

Yeah, if you have a guy with a first round grade that everyone else has a lower grade on, it's incredibly dumb to draft the player at the slot you have them when you can either trade down or draft for another position elsewhere. 

Prime examples: Nobody took E. Sanders early this season, but most everyone thought he would be at least a WR4.  I had him as a potential WR2 and "reached" by taking him in the late 9th round.  By my projections (which are posted here on fftoday), he easily has later third, or early fourth round value.  You simply don't draft a player early simply because your gut tells you he's better than people think. 

Someone mentioned Brady earlier.....  One of the Patriots old Scouts was on the NFL Network on Sirius Radio.  He had said the Scouts in the Patriots War Room were literally (it actually happened according to him) jumping on top of the table demanding Brady be drafted in the 4th.  He never said they had a first round grade on him, but that it was an "early round grade" and they just happened to be the only team that thought that much of him.  It was a pretty cool story as they all wanted him, but didn't think any other team wanted him at all.  Turned out pretty well for them.