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thePRO

Le'veon Bell Jump Ship...

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I might be overreacting early here, but the Jets are terrible. I don't really expect Darnold to come back and save the offense...

 

I did this to myself last year with David Johnson. Good backs on terrible teams just aren't worth it. I'm honestly thinking about trading this guy if he has a nice game for someone like Mack, Lindsay, or Aaron Jones.

 

What to do guys, what to do??

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I'd hold.

This offense was legit down the stretch last year, and it now runs through Bell.

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If I own Mack I’m not taking Bell.  

And he’s the only one you listed that I would take over Bell. 

Lindsay and Freeman our toe to toe right now. 

And A Jones did indeed lose rush att to J Willams, and I think that will continue. 

I think your going to be a Bell owner. 

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14 hours ago, thePRO said:

I might be overreacting early here, but the Jets are terrible. I don't really expect Darnold to come back and save the offense...

 

I did this to myself last year with David Johnson. Good backs on terrible teams just aren't worth it. I'm honestly thinking about trading this guy if he has a nice game for someone like Mack, Lindsay, or Aaron Jones.

 

What to do guys, what to do??

Darnold is the real deal. When he comes back, Bell will be fine. Just don't know when he comes back. Freaking mono? Had that in my senior year of high school. It is really bad.

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The problem with Bell is as much his line as his QB.  Teams obviously will have to respect the offense more once Darnold is back, and I think Bell will absolutely perform better then, but his line is still going to be horrid.  Kalil was a completely wasted signing.  The guy sucked in Carolina, yet they brought him in to be the starting Center?  He's on the bench now.  The guy they got from the Raiders may be the most overrated Guard in the league.  When the Raiders are willing to let someone go, probably not a good idea to take them.  lol 

If everyone on that teams gets healthy, Bell will be fine.  Highly doubtful you get much in return for him though.  I have him marked on my list as a guy I will buy low, if possible.  Unfortunately, Bell owners tend to think they should get a 1st round return on him, or a return matching his production from two years ago.  He isn't that Bell anymore and he won't be in New York, but he can still be a very solid fantasy RB. 

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18 hours ago, thePRO said:

I might be overreacting early here

I agree completely :D

Seriously, if you don't believe in him long-term you should get out. But what you should not do is sell him off after he followed up two weeks of solid production with a (completely foreseeable) stinker against the best team in the league, right as he heads into his bye. That's the ultimate sell-low move.

Personally I'm holding on Bell. I think he's such the focus of that offense that he will continue to produce, at least in games where he's not playing with a QB3 against a team that hasn't given up an offensive TD since January. Also, the DJ example is instructive; Johnson is a less talented RB who was playing on one of the worst offenses in recent memory and he still managed to finish as a low-end RB1. I think Bell's floor is at least higher than that, particularly if Darnold comes back in a couple weeks.

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I'm trying to trade for Bell, if I can buy low. Looking to package a WR and a worse running back for him. Opportunity is important, and his schedule is going to get better.

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True. I'm just panicking because I have Bell in a standard league. PPR seems doable for sure. 

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2 minutes ago, thePRO said:

True. I'm just panicking because I have Bell in a standard league. PPR seems doable for sure. 

I have him in standard as well. Obviously he's more valuable if you're getting points per reception, but the fact that he's (mostly) gamescript-proof is a huge plus. Even yesterday, when the offense did absolutely nothing, he still put up 60 YFS, which isn't great but isn't terrible. I think it's safe to say that's pretty close to his floor.

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On 9/23/2019 at 1:56 AM, weepaws said:

If I own Mack I’m not taking Bell.  

And he’s the only one you listed that I would take over Bell. 

Lindsay and Freeman our toe to toe right now. 

And A Jones did indeed lose rush att to J Willams, and I think that will continue. 

I think your going to be a Bell owner. 

this.

honestly I get the feeling Darnold might return after the bye in week 4.   Bells value may improve once Darnold returns just by virtue of being in a better offense overall.

If he has a great game after Darnold returns, I'd say at that point if you are looking to sell, that is the time.

not now.

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Would depend on rosters. 

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51 minutes ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Bell for JuJu & Freeman - who wins?

Juju and Freeman is the side to receive.

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On 9/23/2019 at 1:56 AM, weepaws said:

If I own Mack I’m not taking Bell.  

And he’s the only one you listed that I would take over Bell. 

Lindsay and Freeman our toe to toe right now. 

And A Jones did indeed lose rush att to J Willams, and I think that will continue. 

I think your going to be a Bell owner. 

Do you put Bell above Carson?

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31 minutes ago, BuschWack said:

Do you put Bell above Carson?

How is this even a question? Bell all day every day.

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2 hours ago, BuschWack said:

Do you put Bell above Carson?

 

1 hour ago, zftcg said:

How is this even a question? Bell all day every day.

After 3 weeks, Bell is 6.5 standard fantasy points ahead of Carson (2.2 pts per week)--basically the point differential of Carson's 3 fumbles.

I would consider them approximately equal.

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3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

After 3 weeks, Bell is 6.5 standard fantasy points ahead of Carson (2.2 pts per week)--basically the point differential of Carson's 3 fumbles.

I would consider them approximately equal.

When I asked that question, I was considering Bell without healthy or improved QB play.  If Darnold can improve and become the leader he's been pinned to be, I'd keep Bell ahead of Carson.

I may make an offer of Carson + TE Waller for Bell in my .5 ppr league and nab Ben Watson off waivers.  

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Just now, BuschWack said:

I may make an offer of Carson + TE Waller for Bell in my .5 ppr league and nab Ben Watson off waivers.  

Literal insanity.

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Just now, AxeElf said:

Literal insanity.

LOL.  I'm kinda insane.  

You think Waller can keep it up?  I do have a thing for Watson.  Especially in the Pats offense with no Gronk and Jules hurting.

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Just now, BuschWack said:

LOL.  I'm kinda insane.  

You think Waller can keep it up?  I do have a thing for Watson.  Especially in the Pats offense with no Gronk and Jules hurting.

Watson has potential to at least be a fringe TE1, but Waller is a top 3 TE as the centerpiece of the Raiders' passing attack--and he hasn't even caught a TD yet.

There's not enough of a benefit to having Bell over Carson to justify selling Waller's production for "potential" at this point.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

After 3 weeks, Bell is 6.5 standard fantasy points ahead of Carson (2.2 pts per week)--basically the point differential of Carson's 3 fumbles.

I would consider them approximately equal.

I disagree, based on the criteria of watching both of them play football. :dunno:

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20 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I disagree, based on the criteria of watching both of them play football. :dunno:

This is fantasy football.  The only criteria that matters is statistical production.

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2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

This is fantasy football.  The only criteria that matters is statistical production.

And my rule of thumb is that the most reliable predictor of fantasy production is talent. It's not 100% reliable, but it is the most useful criteria.

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2 minutes ago, zftcg said:

And my rule of thumb is that the most reliable predictor of fantasy production is talent. It's not 100% reliable, but it is the most useful criteria.

Axually, the best single predictor of future production is past production, and the best measure of talent is production.

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Axually, the best single predictor of future production is past production, and the best measure of talent is production.

While there is some merit to your argument, there is also something in fantasy football (and real football) called variables. In Bell's case his current production may be adversely affected by the variable of his starting QB not playing, and the backup to him for that matter. When projecting Bell's future production, one should take into account that the starting QB will be at the helm, and likely in the very near future...

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13 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Axually, the best single predictor of future production is past production, and the best measure of talent is production.

Ultimately, this is more art than science. I've made a decision that I'm going to put a lot of weight on a player's talent. I look at Bell and see one of the most talented RBs in the league, and I want to put my chips down on him even in a less-than-optimal situation. I can't -- and feel no need to -- prove to you that I'm right, either in this particular situation or more broadly. I just think you have to decide on a few core principles that are going to guide your fantasy decisions, and this is one of those for me. Honestly, it's less about producing optimal results and more about just keeping my sanity. If I have a process and I follow it, I'm not going to beat myself up when it goes wrong.

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