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LoOnAtIk

Christian McCaffrey for MVP

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Panthers are now 3-0 without Cam Newton and are relying heavily on CMC. 

 

Its amazing how Ron Rivera needs Cam Newton to be off of the field to realize who the best player on his team is.

 

If the Panthers keep winning and CMC keeps this sort of pace, any chance he steals the MVP from Mahomes?

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The Panthers def has been pretty good also. 

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Just now, weepaws said:

The Panthers def has been pretty good also. 

They got carved up today by the Jaguars.

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I know, again pretty good. 

Like all defense there not great,  but they have been pretty good. 

Gave me 14 ffoints today also. 

 

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I would say this is a case where the rb has definitely earned it so far. I can't believe his production. Hopefully Barkley can achieve half of Cmcs numbers so that i can feel a little better about taking Barkley 1 overall

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One of the talking heads on Satellite radio (NFL Network) was reviewing CMC's numbers after the game.  He's on pace to destroy the record for most touches in a season, which is a BAD thing for Dynasty owners of his.  He listed all the players with over 400 touches in a year, followed by their next season, then the rest of their career.  Shaun Alexander never was the same after his monster season.  The list was the who's who of former fantasy Champions.  The gist of it was that no RB in history has ever had a long future, or another top 3 finish in the NFL, after so many carries.  I don't know how age would play into all that as most of the other RB's with that many touches all came when they were around 27'ish.  Hopefully if CMC does end up breaking the record, his body is still young enough to take the beating and it won't take years off his career.  He also detailed it isn't just the actual touches that get RB's hurt (in the long-term) but the attempted passes their way they don't catch, but may get hit on the play anyway, the blocking they do and how there is a proven cause/effect between long term knee, ankle, shin, tendon & ligament damage from just one season of massive overuse. 

I think if R. Wilson isn't the MVP, it has to be CMC at this point.  He's literally carrying that team.  Hopefully he isn't worn out by the time he can get a new contract because he certainly deserves one. 

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3 hours ago, oldtimer said:

One of the talking heads on Satellite radio (NFL Network) was reviewing CMC's numbers after the game.  He's on pace to destroy the record for most touches in a season, which is a BAD thing for Dynasty owners of his.  He listed all the players with over 400 touches in a year, followed by their next season, then the rest of their career.  Shaun Alexander never was the same after his monster season.  The list was the who's who of former fantasy Champions.  The gist of it was that no RB in history has ever had a long future, or another top 3 finish in the NFL, after so many carries.  I don't know how age would play into all that as most of the other RB's with that many touches all came when they were around 27'ish.  Hopefully if CMC does end up breaking the record, his body is still young enough to take the beating and it won't take years off his career.  He also detailed it isn't just the actual touches that get RB's hurt (in the long-term) but the attempted passes their way they don't catch, but may get hit on the play anyway, the blocking they do and how there is a proven cause/effect between long term knee, ankle, shin, tendon & ligament damage from just one season of massive overuse. 

I think if R. Wilson isn't the MVP, it has to be CMC at this point.  He's literally carrying that team.  Hopefully he isn't worn out by the time he can get a new contract because he certainly deserves one. 

The difference with CMC is he plays in a different NFL. Can you name some of the other RBs on that list? Shaun Alexander and I’m assuming Jamal Anderson off the top of my head. Those guys were bruisers who dished out punishment. CMC is as elusive a runner as I’ve ever seen. He might give a stiff arm when necessary but often times he is not seeking contact and he goes down easily when wrapped up. I think CMC is a bit unprecedented in that sense. He was getting a lot of touches in college too, kickoffs included.

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4 hours ago, oldtimer said:

He listed all the players with over 400 touches in a year, followed by their next season, then the rest of their career.  Shaun Alexander never was the same after his monster season.  The list was the who's who of former fantasy Champions.  The gist of it was that no RB in history has ever had a long future, or another top 3 finish in the NFL, after so many carries.

I wrote a series of articles here at FFToday that speaks to this heavy workload v future production for RBs and yes, the data is not good.

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/rb_heavy.htm

https://fftoday.com/articles//nicolas/06_rb_heavy.htm

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/nicolas/07_rb_heavy.htm

 

Notes/Caveats:

The info is (yikes) over a decade old so take it for what it is

The workload cited didn't happen very often a decade+ ago, happens even less frequently in today's NFL where there are much more RBBC and less Bellcow RBs

It does speak to some of the missed games/injury after a large workload, but also cites that it's often just regression of touches:

It’s rare to have a 370-f/carry season and even more rare for a RB to repeat the feat. Most of the time there is nowhere for an RB to go but down after a 370-f/carry season. It’s not that these RBs always come back with bad years—but they too often fail to live up to expectation

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44 minutes ago, NAn said:

I wrote a series of articles here at FFToday that speaks to this heavy workload v future production for RBs and yes, the data is not good.

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/rb_heavy.htm

https://fftoday.com/articles//nicolas/06_rb_heavy.htm

https://www.fftoday.com/articles/nicolas/07_rb_heavy.htm

 

Notes/Caveats:

The info is (yikes) over a decade old so take it for what it is

The workload cited didn't happen very often a decade+ ago, happens even less frequently in today's NFL where there are much more RBBC and less Bellcow RBs

It does speak to some of the missed games/injury after a large workload, but also cites that it's often just regression of touches:

It’s rare to have a 370-f/carry season and even more rare for a RB to repeat the feat. Most of the time there is nowhere for an RB to go but down after a 370-f/carry season. It’s not that these RBs always come back with bad years—but they too often fail to live up to expectation

Nice work.  It's pretty much just what this guy was saying.  I just hope they pay him before they run him into the ground.  The guy on the radio broke it down into total touches over a career as well.  I don't recall the number, but once it was hit, there hasn't been a RB have success afterwards.  It was the number of touches in college and the NFL combined.  I want to say it was 2,400, but I could be totally wrong.  Basically, he was pointing out what you did, that once the number has been hit, the damage done to the body is so tremendous it won't allow a person to do it again. 

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2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

The difference with CMC is he plays in a different NFL. Can you name some of the other RBs on that list? Shaun Alexander and I’m assuming Jamal Anderson off the top of my head. Those guys were bruisers who dished out punishment. CMC is as elusive a runner as I’ve ever seen. He might give a stiff arm when necessary but often times he is not seeking contact and he goes down easily when wrapped up. I think CMC is a bit unprecedented in that sense. He was getting a lot of touches in college too, kickoffs included.

NAn posted just above some links that will help.  He saved me from trying to recall anything from memory!

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All of the examples above are from a different time in the NFL. I truly believe what we’re seeing from CMC is unprecedented. He’s getting all of his touches in a spread out west coast style offense. The bruisers from back in the day were lining up an the extinct I-formation and getting pounded week in and week out.

 

Obviously only time will tell but I can’t fathom the idea of selling him in dynasty because of decade old information.

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36 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Nice work.  It's pretty much just what this guy was saying.  I just hope they pay him before they run him into the ground.  The guy on the radio broke it down into total touches over a career as well.  I don't recall the number, but once it was hit, there hasn't been a RB have success afterwards.  It was the number of touches in college and the NFL combined.  I want to say it was 2,400, but I could be totally wrong.  Basically, he was pointing out what you did, that once the number has been hit, the damage done to the body is so tremendous it won't allow a person to do it again. 

Yeah, for CM I think it'll be more a regression of touches than missing time as he's still relatively young, but it's still something to def at least take into consideration.  WTS I think dynasty wise still have to consider holding at least for next year or so.

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21 minutes ago, NAn said:

Yeah, for CM I think it'll be more a regression of touches than missing time as he's still relatively young, but it's still something to def at least take into consideration.  WTS I think dynasty wise still have to consider holding at least for next year or so.

Agreed.  I wouldn't trade him, that's for certain.  I did dump Priest Holmes back in the day though and got quite a haul for him before his wheels fell off.  I traded him the year they drafted Larry Johnson and Johnson was looking like a total bust.  Complete luck that a couple years later Johnson was the fantasy back to own and Priest was out of the league. 

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Yeah touches are touches, even if he isn't getting blown up every play. It's a lot of wear and tear on the body. I said that during my latest startup where cmc went 2 and I took Kamara 4, I think Kamara is a better long term dynasty play since he won't get run into the ground. Cmc came in at 205 pounds too. Not a very big dude for all of that contact. 

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Defenses are keying in on him with Cam out of the lineup, and yet he still did that to the Jags!!   Isn't this back to back weeks with 3 TD's!   When is the last time we saw that from a RB?   He's got my vote at this point!!    

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

All of the examples above are from a different time in the NFL. I truly believe what we’re seeing from CMC is unprecedented. He’s getting all of his touches in a spread out west coast style offense. The bruisers from back in the day were lining up an the extinct I-formation and getting pounded week in and week out.

 

Obviously only time will tell but I can’t fathom the idea of selling him in dynasty because of decade old information.

Def  a different time/game...

Many of the RBs cited did have recs of 40-60, including a couple with comparable recs to what CM has done recent years Stephen Jackson (90, '06), Ladaininan Tomlinson (100, '03).

But there carries aside from that were much more than today.  These days 325-350 touches is what you want.

Many from the lists had 300-350+ carries, then added recs of 40+ on top of that: Rick Williams (392carries/50 res, '03), Larry Johnson (416carries/41recs, '06)

That's just unheard of today.

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12 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Agreed.  I wouldn't trade him, that's for certain.  I did dump Priest Holmes back in the day though and got quite a haul for him before his wheels fell off.  I traded him the year they drafted Larry Johnson and Johnson was looking like a total bust.  Complete luck that a couple years later Johnson was the fantasy back to own and Priest was out of the league. 

Holmes was a monster but LJ filled those shoes eventually, see my posts on his carries on '06.

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Godwin real MVP followed by C Mac, Cook, and Wilson.

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He will single handily win FF champions for people. Very much like Gurley did a few years ago. 

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4 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

All of the examples above are from a different time in the NFL. I truly believe what we’re seeing from CMC is unprecedented. He’s getting all of his touches in a spread out west coast style offense. The bruisers from back in the day were lining up an the extinct I-formation and getting pounded week in and week out.

 

Obviously only time will tell but I can’t fathom the idea of selling him in dynasty because of decade old information.

I definitely wouldn't sell him either, but I'm not buying it's a different NFL when it comes to the RB position and physicality of touches. They're absolutely getting this guy pummeled this year. I'll counter in this NFL the defensive players are even more massive/ fast than years ago.  I also agree with the point made about running him into the ground on his rookie contract. I sincerely hope he gets his next contract sooner rather than later. 

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He's certainly the top fantasy player so far.

His touches are concerning but I don't know that it's quite as concerning as it would have been in the past.

Players just don't take the same hits they used to. RBs will last a little longer.

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I’m referring to NFL MVP btw guys. Just curious. Not trying to argue for a top 4 pick as fantasy MVP.

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To answer the topic question, think CM is definitely deserving of MVP consideration.

As others have said though, what would work against him is the QB-centric league that is today's NFL.

A QB has won the league MVP title  12 of 13 seasons (including Rodgers twice, Peyton x3, Brady x3).

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ap-nfl-mvp-award.htm

The one year it wasn't was Adrian Peterson's nearly 2100 rushing yds (on way to 2300 totyds/13tds) in '12.

Before that 13 year run had to go back to Tomlinson in '06 (2300totyds/31tds), Alexander in '05 (1900totyds/28tds)

CM on pace for 2700totyds/99recs/19tds, I'd say that's comparable to what those other RBs did.

He'd have my vote, but think right now it's Wilson leading the race slightly b/c of the love for QB in the league.

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